2020 General Election

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Skjellyfetti »

BDKJMU wrote:
Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:43 pm
Trump overtakes Biden as favorite to win in November: Betfair Exchange

.....These bets in part aided Trump to take the lead, after being neck-and-neck with Biden earlier this week, completing a stunning recovery in the betting markets.

“In August, Trump had the worst odds for re-election of any sitting President in history and defeat to Biden was looking increasingly likely,” Darren Hughes, spokesperson at Flutter Entertainment unit Betfair Exchange, said......
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... SKBN25T1L6
just thought i'd bump this.

Betfair has gone to 64-36 Biden in the month since your post.

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by ∞∞∞ »

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Americans generally don't tolerate Presidents who kill hundreds of thousands of their family and friends.

Killing women and children in some far away land? No prob. Grammy Esther here at home? We'll go all center-right on your ass.

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Baldy »

∞∞∞ wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:37 pm
Americans generally don't tolerate Presidents who kill hundreds of thousands of their family and friends.

Killing women and children in some far away land? No prob. Grammy Esther here at home? We'll go all center-right on your ass.
:lol:

But Americans praise governors who kill tens of thousands of their own citizens and dump the bodies into mass graves. :thumb:

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by ∞∞∞ »

Baldy wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:58 pm
∞∞∞ wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:37 pm
Americans generally don't tolerate Presidents who kill hundreds of thousands of their family and friends.

Killing women and children in some far away land? No prob. Grammy Esther here at home? We'll go all center-right on your ass.
:lol:

But Americans praise governors who kill tens of thousands of their own citizens and dump the bodies into mass graves. :thumb:
Ah yes, let's blame all the governors with the limited information about the virus' severity which the Executive branch knew about last year and didn't disclose; or the same governors scrambling to secure PPE and funding for contact tracing because the Executive branch wasn't releasing money or efficiently distributing medical gear (and in some cases stealing it).

Yup, those guys really f*cked up. Really should have had their own intelligence agencies set up and not rely on money from what is typically the role of a national government.
Last edited by ∞∞∞ on Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:26 pm, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by kalm »

There’s been a big move in older voters towards Biden too. Trump is running out of voting blocks other than conspiracy loving low information older white men who like to follow strong leaders.

Thanks, idiots.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by UNI88 »

∞∞∞ wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:24 pm
Baldy wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:58 pm

:lol:

But Americans praise governors who kill tens of thousands of their own citizens and dump the bodies into mass graves. :thumb:
Ah yes, let's blame all the governors with the limited information about the virus' severity which the Executive branch knew about last year and didn't disclose; or the same governors scrambling to secure PPE and funding for contact tracing because the Executive branch wasn't releasing money or efficiently distributing medical gear (and in some cases stealing it).

Yup, those guys really f*cked up. Really should have had their own intelligence agencies set up and not rely on money from what is typically the role of a national government.
Trump screwed up and he continues to screw up. Cuomo (and DeBlasio) also screwed up and they should be held accountable for it just like Trump. All of the governors who have turned a blind eye to protesting/rioting/looting while banning other congregations also screwed up (and were complete hypocrites) and should also be held accountable. If Florida blows up, DeSantis will have screwed up majorly and will deserve to be held accountable. There is plenty of blame to go around and neither side has a monopoly on it.

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

I don't know what to make of this but it's kind of interesting. If you go to the same point prior to election day 2016 and look at the 538 election forecast it has Clinton's "chance" to win at about the same place as it has Biden't "chance" to win right now. On October 11, 2016, the forecast had Clinton's chance at 83.5% and as of today it has Biden's "chance" at 83%.

But a graphic 538 provides about how the forecast has changed over time suggests that the Clinton/Trump race was much more volatile than the Trump/Bide race is. Here are the graphics from 2016 and 2020:

2016
Image

2020
Image

I don't know what that means for the eventual outcome but it is certainly a very different dynamic.
Last edited by JohnStOnge on Tue Oct 06, 2020 5:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

∞∞∞ wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:37 pm
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Americans generally don't tolerate Presidents who kill hundreds of thousands of their family and friends.

Killing women and children in some far away land? No prob. Grammy Esther here at home? We'll go all center-right on your ass.
That's interesting but the 2016 RCP betting odds display had Clinton at 88% on election day 2016.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

BTW I think this is a totally different type of thing this year. Even more unpredictable than usual. I think Republicans have decided that they can't win if it is a free and fair election so they are devoting their efforts to voter suppression. And they have a President contributing to the effort.

Hopefully the People will not be dissuaded.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 5:32 pm
BTW I think this is a totally different type of thing this year. Even more unpredictable than usual. I think Republicans have decided that they can't win if it is a free and fair election so they are devoting their efforts to voter suppression. And they have a President contributing to the effort.

Hopefully the People will not be dissuaded.
Lol....and no mention of donk voter fraud. You have become an absolute, 100% complete sellout.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by DuckDuckGriz »

AZGrizFan wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 5:42 pm
JohnStOnge wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 5:32 pm
BTW I think this is a totally different type of thing this year. Even more unpredictable than usual. I think Republicans have decided that they can't win if it is a free and fair election so they are devoting their efforts to voter suppression. And they have a President contributing to the effort.

Hopefully the People will not be dissuaded.
Lol....and no mention of donk voter fraud. You have become an absolute, 100% complete sellout.
Are you going to be a 'poll watcher' this year AZ?

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Baldy »

∞∞∞ wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:24 pm
Baldy wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:58 pm

:lol:

But Americans praise governors who kill tens of thousands of their own citizens and dump the bodies into mass graves. :thumb:
Ah yes, let's blame all the governors with the limited information about the virus' severity which the Executive branch knew about last year and didn't disclose; or the same governors scrambling to secure PPE and funding for contact tracing because the Executive branch wasn't releasing money or efficiently distributing medical gear (and in some cases stealing it).

Yup, those guys really f*cked up. Really should have had their own intelligence agencies set up and not rely on money from what is typically the role of a national government.
Late last year? Really? Then why in the middle of January of THIS year was the WHO (the scientists and epidemiologists you claim we should listen to) saying that there wasn't any evidence of person to person transmission of COVID?

Between March 25th and April 15th of this year, a full three months after we all knew that COVID was highly contagious and after we all knew that the elderly were the most at risk, NY governor Cuomo(D), NJ governor Murphy(D), MI governor Whitmer(D), CA governor Newsom(D), and PA governor Wolfe(D) all issued executive orders forcing nursing homes to take in COVID infected patients. Those orders resulted in the death of 10's of thousands of people in those states. It's almost like they all pulled out a gun, stuck it to every one of those people's head and pulled the trigger. Every one of those executive orders went against Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services and the Centers for Disease Control guidelines. Yes, blame Trump because those five mini-Hitlers do not know how to govern.

Those poor little fucking murderous governors. It's all good though, with body counts like that, I'm sure Stalin and Mao are down in hell smiling in approval. :coffee:

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by houndawg »

Baldy wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:43 pm
∞∞∞ wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:24 pm


Ah yes, let's blame all the governors with the limited information about the virus' severity which the Executive branch knew about last year and didn't disclose; or the same governors scrambling to secure PPE and funding for contact tracing because the Executive branch wasn't releasing money or efficiently distributing medical gear (and in some cases stealing it).

Yup, those guys really f*cked up. Really should have had their own intelligence agencies set up and not rely on money from what is typically the role of a national government.
Late last year? Really? Then why in the middle of January of THIS year was the WHO (the scientists and epidemiologists you claim we should listen to) saying that there wasn't any evidence of person to person transmission of COVID?

Between March 25th and April 15th of this year, a full three months after we all knew that COVID was highly contagious and after we all knew that the elderly were the most at risk, NY governor Cuomo(D), NJ governor Murphy(D), MI governor Whitmer(D), CA governor Newsom(D), and PA governor Wolfe(D) all issued executive orders forcing nursing homes to take in COVID infected patients. Those orders resulted in the death of 10's of thousands of people in those states. It's almost like they all pulled out a gun, stuck it to every one of those people's head and pulled the trigger. Every one of those executive orders went against Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services and the Centers for Disease Control guidelines. Yes, blame Trump because those five mini-Hitlers do not know how to govern.

Those poor little fucking murderous governors. It's all good though, with body counts like that, I'm sure Stalin and Mao are down in hell smiling in approval. :coffee:

Time to adjust the meds again. :coffee:
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SDHornet »

UNI88 wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:33 pm
∞∞∞ wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 2:24 pm


Ah yes, let's blame all the governors with the limited information about the virus' severity which the Executive branch knew about last year and didn't disclose; or the same governors scrambling to secure PPE and funding for contact tracing because the Executive branch wasn't releasing money or efficiently distributing medical gear (and in some cases stealing it).

Yup, those guys really f*cked up. Really should have had their own intelligence agencies set up and not rely on money from what is typically the role of a national government.
Trump screwed up and he continues to screw up. Cuomo (and DeBlasio) also screwed up and they should be held accountable for it just like Trump. All of the governors who have turned a blind eye to protesting/rioting/looting while banning other congregations also screwed up (and were complete hypocrites) and should also be held accountable. If Florida blows up, DeSantis will have screwed up majorly and will deserve to be held accountable. There is plenty of blame to go around and neither side has a monopoly on it.
This. :coffee:

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SDHornet »

houndawg wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:51 pm
Baldy wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 6:43 pm

Late last year? Really? Then why in the middle of January of THIS year was the WHO (the scientists and epidemiologists you claim we should listen to) saying that there wasn't any evidence of person to person transmission of COVID?

Between March 25th and April 15th of this year, a full three months after we all knew that COVID was highly contagious and after we all knew that the elderly were the most at risk, NY governor Cuomo(D), NJ governor Murphy(D), MI governor Whitmer(D), CA governor Newsom(D), and PA governor Wolfe(D) all issued executive orders forcing nursing homes to take in COVID infected patients. Those orders resulted in the death of 10's of thousands of people in those states. It's almost like they all pulled out a gun, stuck it to every one of those people's head and pulled the trigger. Every one of those executive orders went against Center for Medicare & Medicaid Services and the Centers for Disease Control guidelines. Yes, blame Trump because those five mini-Hitlers do not know how to govern.

Those poor little fucking murderous governors. It's all good though, with body counts like that, I'm sure Stalin and Mao are down in hell smiling in approval. :coffee:

Time to adjust the meds again. :coffee:
Um, you know that those decisions by those governors that results in thousands of deaths are well documented, right? :?

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Baldy »

SDHornet wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 8:35 pm
houndawg wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 7:51 pm



Time to adjust the meds again. :coffee:
Um, you know that those decisions by those governors that results in thousands of deaths are well documented, right? :?
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

AZGrizFan wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 5:42 pm
JohnStOnge wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 5:32 pm
BTW I think this is a totally different type of thing this year. Even more unpredictable than usual. I think Republicans have decided that they can't win if it is a free and fair election so they are devoting their efforts to voter suppression. And they have a President contributing to the effort.

Hopefully the People will not be dissuaded.
Lol....and no mention of donk voter fraud. You have become an absolute, 100% complete sellout.
Because voter fraud is not a realistic threat to make the difference between who wins and who loses while voter suppression is. The FBI guy pretty much testified to that effect a couple of weeks ago. The idea of a significant level of voter fraud has been repeatedly debunked.

But the voter suppression efforts are right out in the open. The Republicans are not even attempting to hide it.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by HI54UNI »

JohnStOnge wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 5:32 pm
BTW I think this is a totally different type of thing this year. Even more unpredictable than usual. I think Republicans have decided that they can't win if it is a free and fair election so they are devoting their efforts to voter suppression. And they have a President contributing to the effort.

Hopefully the People will not be dissuaded.
This is like blaming the refs for losing a FB game.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by kalm »

HI54UNI wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:31 am
JohnStOnge wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 5:32 pm
BTW I think this is a totally different type of thing this year. Even more unpredictable than usual. I think Republicans have decided that they can't win if it is a free and fair election so they are devoting their efforts to voter suppression. And they have a President contributing to the effort.

Hopefully the People will not be dissuaded.
This is like blaming the refs for losing a FB game.
In a game where there are no refs.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by ∞∞∞ »

Biden has held a very steady (and big) lead, across months now, and the swing states are being polled way better than before because of the 2016 debacle. Cons like to point out 2016 as the comparison - which is fine - but it was also a statistical outlier when it comes to the accuracy of election polling. It can't be used as the singular data point to compare everything to. Even with that, 2016 polls still predicted the popular vote correctly (just in the wrong places).

Taking Biden's steady polling, the focus on swing states, the fact Dems are fired up (see 2018), along with the historical accuracy of polling, and I don't have too many reasons why the numbers are wrong this time around. The big question mark is the pandemic and how it will effect voters.
Last edited by ∞∞∞ on Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:55 am, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Ibanez »

SeattleGriz wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 1:08 pm
Ibanez wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 4:56 am


Why lie? Are you not firm in your convictions? Ignoring I understand. But answering then intentionally lying? Sounds petty to me.
I can only tell you of the issues one experiences out here in the Seattle area when you identify with Trump.

My son games with a Russian kid and he was labeled "Trump Russia Fucker" by the kids in his 6th grade class.

If kids are already hyperpartisan at 6th grade, what do you expect from the parents.
I get that, and that's unfortunate. And that's the parents fault. We had neighbors teach their kids that all Republicans are evil. That's not right nor should children become partisan. They don't need to worry about this crap in the 5th grade.

But I highly doubt when a pollster calls you, they'll insult you for your political affiliations.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Baldy »

JohnStOnge wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:40 am
AZGrizFan wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 5:42 pm


Lol....and no mention of donk voter fraud. You have become an absolute, 100% complete sellout.
Because voter fraud is not a realistic threat to make the difference between who wins and who loses while voter suppression is. The FBI guy pretty much testified to that effect a couple of weeks ago. The idea of a significant level of voter fraud has been repeatedly debunked.

But the voter suppression efforts are right out in the open. The Republicans are not even attempting to hide it.
We all know we can trust some "FBI guy", right? :lol:

Mailing official ballots to untold thousands of dead people, people who have moved out of state, people who are in prison, people who aren't old enough to vote, etc. kicks open the door for fraud on a grand scale.

Benson: 6,400 Michigan absentee ballots rejected for late arrival
Another 2,225 ballots were discarded because there was no signature on the envelope; 1,111 were rejected because the voter moved; and 846 were not accepted because the voter was dead, according to data from Benson's office.

Those individuals listed as dead or moved include voters who died or moved out of the jurisdiction after submitting their absentee ballots, Benson's spokeswoman Tracy Wimmer said. The state gets monthly updates from the Social Security Administration regarding new Michigan deaths so officials can identify ballots filed by people who have since died.

The number of deceased voters is actually less than the November 2016 election, when 1,782 absentee ballots were rejected because the voter had died in an election that had 400,000 fewer absentee ballots than the Aug. 4 primary.

Michigan's largest city also rejected 452 ballots because election officials lacked signatures or the signatures on the envelope did not match state data, according to Benson's data.
The above article shows thousands of cases of voter fraud in itself, and it was only a primary. The scary part is that these are just the instances that were caught. How many were missed? The margin of victory was just over 10,000 votes in the last election.

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by kalm »

Baldy wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:56 am
JohnStOnge wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:40 am


Because voter fraud is not a realistic threat to make the difference between who wins and who loses while voter suppression is. The FBI guy pretty much testified to that effect a couple of weeks ago. The idea of a significant level of voter fraud has been repeatedly debunked.

But the voter suppression efforts are right out in the open. The Republicans are not even attempting to hide it.
We all know we can trust some "FBI guy", right? :lol:

Mailing official ballots to untold thousands of dead people, people who have moved out of state, people who are in prison, people who aren't old enough to vote, etc. kicks open the door for fraud on a grand scale.

Benson: 6,400 Michigan absentee ballots rejected for late arrival
Another 2,225 ballots were discarded because there was no signature on the envelope; 1,111 were rejected because the voter moved; and 846 were not accepted because the voter was dead, according to data from Benson's office.

Those individuals listed as dead or moved include voters who died or moved out of the jurisdiction after submitting their absentee ballots, Benson's spokeswoman Tracy Wimmer said. The state gets monthly updates from the Social Security Administration regarding new Michigan deaths so officials can identify ballots filed by people who have since died.

The number of deceased voters is actually less than the November 2016 election, when 1,782 absentee ballots were rejected because the voter had died in an election that had 400,000 fewer absentee ballots than the Aug. 4 primary.

Michigan's largest city also rejected 452 ballots because election officials lacked signatures or the signatures on the envelope did not match state data, according to Benson's data.
The above article shows thousands of cases of voter fraud in itself, and it was only a primary. The scary part is that these are just the instances that were caught. How many were missed? The margin of victory was just over 10,000 votes in the last election.
Where’s the fraud?
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Ibanez »

Baldy wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 5:56 am
JohnStOnge wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:40 am


Because voter fraud is not a realistic threat to make the difference between who wins and who loses while voter suppression is. The FBI guy pretty much testified to that effect a couple of weeks ago. The idea of a significant level of voter fraud has been repeatedly debunked.

But the voter suppression efforts are right out in the open. The Republicans are not even attempting to hide it.
We all know we can trust some "FBI guy", right? :lol:

Mailing official ballots to untold thousands of dead people, people who have moved out of state, people who are in prison, people who aren't old enough to vote, etc. kicks open the door for fraud on a grand scale.

Benson: 6,400 Michigan absentee ballots rejected for late arrival
Another 2,225 ballots were discarded because there was no signature on the envelope; 1,111 were rejected because the voter moved; and 846 were not accepted because the voter was dead, according to data from Benson's office.

Those individuals listed as dead or moved include voters who died or moved out of the jurisdiction after submitting their absentee ballots, Benson's spokeswoman Tracy Wimmer said. The state gets monthly updates from the Social Security Administration regarding new Michigan deaths so officials can identify ballots filed by people who have since died.

The number of deceased voters is actually less than the November 2016 election, when 1,782 absentee ballots were rejected because the voter had died in an election that had 400,000 fewer absentee ballots than the Aug. 4 primary.

Michigan's largest city also rejected 452 ballots because election officials lacked signatures or the signatures on the envelope did not match state data, according to Benson's data.
The above article shows thousands of cases of voter fraud in itself, and it was only a primary. The scary part is that these are just the instances that were caught. How many were missed? The margin of victory was just over 10,000 votes in the last election.
I'm actually reading that Benson's office is scrutinizing the ballots and providing the oversight required to ensure a fair election.

I get the point of validating voter rolls to prevent fraud and abuse and that should be done. But it sounds like Benson is doing everything he can, and succeeding, in preventing that fraud from counting.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote:
Wed Oct 07, 2020 4:40 am
AZGrizFan wrote:
Tue Oct 06, 2020 5:42 pm


Lol....and no mention of donk voter fraud. You have become an absolute, 100% complete sellout.
Because voter fraud is not a realistic threat to make the difference between who wins and who loses while voter suppression is. The FBI guy pretty much testified to that effect a couple of weeks ago. The idea of a significant level of voter fraud has been repeatedly debunked.

But the voter suppression efforts are right out in the open. The Republicans are not even attempting to hide it.
Ah. “The FBI guy”.....ok. There are several states that are so close that if several thousand votes just magically “disappeared” the outcome would be different. EASILY impacted by voter fraud, ballot harvesting, throwing away mail trays, etc, etc. Easily. Your blind hypocrisy is astounding.
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