2020 General Election

Political discussions
User avatar
SeattleGriz
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 10217
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:41 am
I am a fan of: Montana
A.K.A.: PhxGriz

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SeattleGriz »

kalm wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:31 am
SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:24 am

Without all the statistical anomalies, yes, but with them, no. Not saying they have a winning case, but they have to be able to not get laughed off the stage to at least save face.
Those ships have sailed. Rational people will view him as a loser regardless. But he will never look bad to his gullible supporters.
We'll find out, won't we. That's the beauty of this. Resolution.
Everything is better with SeattleGriz
kalm
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 47879
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 3:36 pm
I am a fan of: Eastern
A.K.A.: Humus The Proud
Location: Northern Palouse

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by kalm »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:47 am
kalm wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:31 am

Those ships have sailed. Rational people will view him as a loser regardless. But he will never look bad to his gullible supporters.
We'll find out, won't we. That's the beauty of this. Resolution.
What resolution? Do you think the 88% of Trump voters who think he won will accept the outcome? Do you think he will? He isnt going away.
Image
Image
Image
User avatar
SeattleGriz
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 10217
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:41 am
I am a fan of: Montana
A.K.A.: PhxGriz

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SeattleGriz »

kalm wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:56 am
SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:47 am

We'll find out, won't we. That's the beauty of this. Resolution.
What resolution? Do you think the 88% of Trump voters who think he won will accept the outcome? Do you think he will? He isnt going away.
Resolution to if there was voter and election fraud to a level that it is provable in court...and that Trump wins the Presidency via Supreme Court.
Everything is better with SeattleGriz
kalm
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 47879
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 3:36 pm
I am a fan of: Eastern
A.K.A.: Humus The Proud
Location: Northern Palouse

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by kalm »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 9:00 am
kalm wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:56 am

What resolution? Do you think the 88% of Trump voters who think he won will accept the outcome? Do you think he will? He isnt going away.
Resolution to if there was voter and election fraud to a level that it is provable in court...and that Trump wins the Presidency via Supreme Court.
That ship is about out of the harbor too.
Image
Image
Image
User avatar
UNI88
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 9938
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:30 am
I am a fan of: UNI
A.K.A.: Unification88
Location: Fence Sitter & Ball-Sack Splitter

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by UNI88 »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 7:15 am Just looking at the statistics supplied by people on the internet. I have some faith in them, as most will ask that others check their work.

Things don't add up. Too many standard deviations from normal. At first you could accept it was just really high turnout, but now that people are looking deeper, there are just too many anomalies.
So kind of like Kalm's Facebook friend who posts his Coronavirus theories for others to read and critique. Why don't you have faith in him/her?

Wouldn't anomalies be expected during a pandemic?
SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:13 am Gut feel for sure. Other aspect is how big claims are being made by Trump and his lawyer team. I just can't see all of them saying, "let's go down as the bitterest losers ever".
Too late.
User avatar
SeattleGriz
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 10217
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:41 am
I am a fan of: Montana
A.K.A.: PhxGriz

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SeattleGriz »

UNI88 wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:30 am
SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 7:15 am Just looking at the statistics supplied by people on the internet. I have some faith in them, as most will ask that others check their work.

Things don't add up. Too many standard deviations from normal. At first you could accept it was just really high turnout, but now that people are looking deeper, there are just too many anomalies.
So kind of like Kalm's Facebook friend who posts his Coronavirus theories for others to read and critique. Why don't you have faith in him/her?

Wouldn't anomalies be expected during a pandemic?
SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:13 am Gut feel for sure. Other aspect is how big claims are being made by Trump and his lawyer team. I just can't see all of them saying, "let's go down as the bitterest losers ever".
Too late.
I haven't read Kalm's friends stuff, but my assumption would be that one topic is math based and the other is science based. There's a fair amount of wiggle room with a scientific theory, vs statistical analysis. Not saying Klams buddy is wrong, just my observation.

To answer your second question, about the pandemic. I don't know that answer, and it could be the answer, but it's more than turnout. It's how certain counties voted, history and patterns.
Everything is better with SeattleGriz
User avatar
BDKJMU
Level5
Level5
Posts: 19132
Joined: Wed Jul 01, 2009 6:59 am
I am a fan of: JMU
A.K.A.: BDKJMU
Location: Philly Burbs

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by BDKJMU »

kalm wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:56 am
SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:47 am

We'll find out, won't we. That's the beauty of this. Resolution.
What resolution? Do you think the 88% of Trump voters who think he won will accept the outcome? Do you think he will? He isnt going away.
Link?

52% Of Republicans Think Trump ‘Rightfully Won’ Election, Poll Finds
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurk ... 7fc4c649e1
BLM: Burning Looting Marxists
User avatar
UNI88
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 9938
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:30 am
I am a fan of: UNI
A.K.A.: Unification88
Location: Fence Sitter & Ball-Sack Splitter

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by UNI88 »

BDKJMU wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:47 am
kalm wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:56 am
What resolution? Do you think the 88% of Trump voters who think he won will accept the outcome? Do you think he will? He isnt going away.
Link?

52% Of Republicans Think Trump ‘Rightfully Won’ Election, Poll Finds
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurk ... 7fc4c649e1
Republicans don't necessarily equal Trump voters
kalm
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 47879
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 3:36 pm
I am a fan of: Eastern
A.K.A.: Humus The Proud
Location: Northern Palouse

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by kalm »

BDKJMU wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:47 am
kalm wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:56 am

What resolution? Do you think the 88% of Trump voters who think he won will accept the outcome? Do you think he will? He isnt going away.
Link?

52% Of Republicans Think Trump ‘Rightfully Won’ Election, Poll Finds
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alisondurk ... 7fc4c649e1
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.forbes ... y-win/amp/
Image
Image
Image
User avatar
UNI88
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 9938
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:30 am
I am a fan of: UNI
A.K.A.: Unification88
Location: Fence Sitter & Ball-Sack Splitter

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by UNI88 »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:43 am
UNI88 wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:30 am
So kind of like Kalm's Facebook friend who posts his Coronavirus theories for others to read and critique. Why don't you have faith in him/her?

Wouldn't anomalies be expected during a pandemic?

Too late.
I haven't read Kalm's friends stuff, but my assumption would be that one topic is math based and the other is science based. There's a fair amount of wiggle room with a scientific theory, vs statistical analysis. Not saying Klams buddy is wrong, just my observation.

To answer your second question, about the pandemic. I don't know that answer, and it could be the answer, but it's more than turnout. It's how certain counties voted, history and patterns.
Another factor is that Trump is an extremely polarizing figure. The MSM and polls underestimated his support but he and his supporters underestimate the number of people who just don't like him. Those people might explain the differences between votes for Biden and no down-ballot votes or Republican down-ballot votes.
kalm
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 47879
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 3:36 pm
I am a fan of: Eastern
A.K.A.: Humus The Proud
Location: Northern Palouse

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by kalm »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:43 am
UNI88 wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 10:30 am

So kind of like Kalm's Facebook friend who posts his Coronavirus theories for others to read and critique. Why don't you have faith in him/her?

Wouldn't anomalies be expected during a pandemic?



Too late.
I haven't read Kalm's friends stuff, but my assumption would be that one topic is math based and the other is science based. There's a fair amount of wiggle room with a scientific theory, vs statistical analysis. Not saying Klams buddy is wrong, just my observation.

To answer your second question, about the pandemic. I don't know that answer, and it could be the answer, but it's more than turnout. It's how certain counties voted, history and patterns.
Correct. The rest is his commentary. It’s a private FB group another member of which has been working on the Moderna vaccine.

I’d expect anyone to be skeptical of the commentary, less regarding the data as it’s verifiable. Regardless, similar to sources like Andy Slavitt, it’s been very predictive since the start.
Image
Image
Image
houndawg
Level5
Level5
Posts: 17917
Joined: Tue Oct 14, 2008 1:14 pm
I am a fan of: SIU
A.K.A.: houndawg
Location: Egypt

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by houndawg »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:24 am
AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:18 am

Reallly? You can’t see that? :lol: :lol:
Without all the statistical anomalies, yes, but with them, no. Not saying they have a winning case, but they have to be able to not get laughed off the stage to at least save face.
They don't appear to have any case at all by the number of judges that are summarily dismissing their bullshit
Subvert the dominant paradigm
houndawg
Level5
Level5
Posts: 17917
Joined: Tue Oct 14, 2008 1:14 pm
I am a fan of: SIU
A.K.A.: houndawg
Location: Egypt

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by houndawg »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 7:15 am
kalm wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 6:55 am

Are you Qanon too?
Nope. Never got anywhere close to Q.

Just looking at the statistics supplied by people on the internet. I have some faith in them, as most will ask that others check their work.

Things don't add up. Too many standard deviations from normal. At first you could accept it was just really high turnout, but now that people are looking deeper, there are just too many anomalies.
What is "too many standard deviations from normal"?
Subvert the dominant paradigm
User avatar
SeattleGriz
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 10217
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:41 am
I am a fan of: Montana
A.K.A.: PhxGriz

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SeattleGriz »

houndawg wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:57 am
SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 8:24 am

Without all the statistical anomalies, yes, but with them, no. Not saying they have a winning case, but they have to be able to not get laughed off the stage to at least save face.
They don't appear to have any case at all by the number of judges that are summarily dismissing their bullshit
I have no idea if it's a plan, but I would expect all the weak stuff to come first. Ain't going straight to the Supreme Court. It's got to lose it's way there.
Everything is better with SeattleGriz
User avatar
SeattleGriz
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 10217
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:41 am
I am a fan of: Montana
A.K.A.: PhxGriz

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SeattleGriz »

houndawg wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 12:02 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 7:15 am

Nope. Never got anywhere close to Q.

Just looking at the statistics supplied by people on the internet. I have some faith in them, as most will ask that others check their work.

Things don't add up. Too many standard deviations from normal. At first you could accept it was just really high turnout, but now that people are looking deeper, there are just too many anomalies.
What is "too many standard deviations from normal"?
If you're asking for a number, 5.5. That's way out of there.
Everything is better with SeattleGriz
User avatar
Skjellyfetti
Anal
Anal
Posts: 13618
Joined: Tue Oct 07, 2008 9:56 pm
I am a fan of: Appalachian

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Skjellyfetti »

What was 5.5 standard deviations above the norm? Turnout? Mail in ballots?
"The unmasking thing was all created by Devin Nunes"
- Richard Burr, (R-NC)
User avatar
SeattleGriz
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 10217
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:41 am
I am a fan of: Montana
A.K.A.: PhxGriz

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SeattleGriz »

It was called hardball back when Obama had votes invalidated due to signature requirements.

https://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/05/29 ... .campaign/
Everything is better with SeattleGriz
User avatar
JohnStOnge
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
Posts: 18793
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
I am a fan of: McNeese State
A.K.A.: JohnStOnge

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 7:15 am
kalm wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 6:55 am

Are you Qanon too?
Nope. Never got anywhere close to Q.

Just looking at the statistics supplied by people on the internet. I have some faith in them, as most will ask that others check their work.

Things don't add up. Too many standard deviations from normal. At first you could accept it was just really high turnout, but now that people are looking deeper, there are just too many anomalies.
Give an example. From what I've seen the "statistical anomalies" get shot down. Like the thing where it was supposedly very unlikely that Wisconsin turnout could have increased as much as it did. Then it turned out the people saying that were miscalculating Wisconsin turnout.

There is nothing that happened that didn't happen as expected.The betting odds as of election day had Biden as a 2:1 favorite. See https://www.actionnetwork.com/politics/ ... -joe-biden. People betting aren’t being politically biased. They are trying to win bets.

Polling made Biden the favorite. If you look at the Real Clear Politics “No Toss Ups” map at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... s_ups.html and compare who had an edge in the polls by jurisdiction to who won the State, the candidate who had the edge in the polls won in 51 of the 53 jurisdictions. Biden had the polling edge in Florida but Trump won. Trump had the polling edge in Georgia but Biden won.

Because Democrats voted by mail at a much higher rate than Republicans, a situation in which Biden would make up ground when mail votes were counted was completely expected. An example of such situations is reported at https://www.politico.com/news/2020/11/0 ... nia-433951. On election day we knew that about 1.6 million Pennsylvania Democrats had voted by mail about about 586,000 Republicans had. Rudimentary math would’ve told anyone that Donald Trump’s 600,000 vote election night lead prior to counting mail ballots would not be expected to hold up.

Then there’s the crackpot Dominion voting machines conspiracy theory. The United States Cybersecurity & Infrastructure Security Agency reported that ““The November 3rd election was the most secure in American history” and added “There is no evidence that any voting system deleted or lost votes, changed votes, or was in any way compromised.” See https://www.cisa.gov/news/2020/11/12/jo ... l-election.

There is zero doubt that Joe Biden being President is the Will of the People. The only question now is whether a corrupt President and a corrupt political Party can negate the will of the people with games played by State and local Republican officials finding ways to do that.

It’s horrible and very sad that the effort is even being made. And if it succeeds we are going to have a real crisis on our hands because the majority of the People in this country are going to know a banana republic thing just happened in the United States.

This is nonsense. Trump is an historically unpopular President and the People of the United States just voted to get rid of him. That's what happened.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
Image
User avatar
JohnStOnge
Egalitarian
Egalitarian
Posts: 18793
Joined: Sun Jan 03, 2010 5:47 pm
I am a fan of: McNeese State
A.K.A.: JohnStOnge

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

And, by the way, there is no way to say a turnout increase is "statistically unlikely" in a situation like this anyway. You had historically unprecedented resentment on one side and historically intense support on the other side. The whole idea of trying to say any particular turnout level is "statistically unlikely" is bogus.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
Image
User avatar
UNI88
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 9938
Joined: Mon Aug 25, 2008 8:30 am
I am a fan of: UNI
A.K.A.: Unification88
Location: Fence Sitter & Ball-Sack Splitter

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by UNI88 »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 12:22 pm
houndawg wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:57 am
They don't appear to have any case at all by the number of judges that are summarily dismissing their bullshit
I have no idea if it's a plan, but I would expect all the weak stuff to come first. Ain't going straight to the Supreme Court. It's got to lose it's way there.
I'm not a lawyer but I don't think you can bring up new evidence on appeal unless it's just been discovered so I don't think Trump's legal beagles can hold back proof of tampering or fraud to save it for the Supreme Court.
kalm
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 47879
Joined: Thu Oct 01, 2009 3:36 pm
I am a fan of: Eastern
A.K.A.: Humus The Proud
Location: Northern Palouse

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by kalm »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 12:22 pm
houndawg wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 11:57 am

They don't appear to have any case at all by the number of judges that are summarily dismissing their bullshit
I have no idea if it's a plan, but I would expect all the weak stuff to come first. Ain't going straight to the Supreme Court. It's got to lose it's way there.
According to some on Parler, Sydney Powell’s dismissal is all part of the plan to use her later to prosecute the traitors.

3 dimensional chess!
Image
Image
Image
User avatar
SeattleGriz
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 10217
Joined: Fri Aug 22, 2008 11:41 am
I am a fan of: Montana
A.K.A.: PhxGriz

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SeattleGriz »

kalm wrote: Mon Nov 23, 2020 12:22 am
SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Nov 22, 2020 12:22 pm

I have no idea if it's a plan, but I would expect all the weak stuff to come first. Ain't going straight to the Supreme Court. It's got to lose it's way there.
According to some on Parler, Sydney Powell’s dismissal is all part of the plan to use her later to prosecute the traitors.

3 dimensional chess!
Gotta admit she was the one I had some hopes on proving something. Trump distancing himself from her doesn't look good. And to think I was just saying that I hope she had her shit together so she doesn't get laughed off the stage.
Everything is better with SeattleGriz
Ibanez
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 55955
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2007 5:16 pm
I am a fan of: Coastal Carolina

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Ibanez »

The decision handed down in Pennsylvania accurately sums up what most people think about Trump's baseless claims of fraud.

I know, I know...it's just another Republican judge not toting the party line. How dare he??!!!
n this action, the Trump Campaign and the Individual Plaintiffs (collectively, the “Plaintiffs”) seek to discard millions of votes legally cast by
Pennsylvanians from all corners – from Greene County to Pike County, and everywhere in between. In other words, Plaintiffs ask this Court to disenfranchise almost seven million voters. This Court has been unable to find any case in which a plaintiff has sought such a drastic remedy in the contest of an election, in terms of the sheer volume of votes asked to be invalidated. One might expect that when seeking such a startling outcome, a plaintiff would come formidably armed with compelling legal arguments and factual proof of rampant corruption, such that this Court would have no option but to regrettably grant the proposed injunctive relief despite the impact it would have on such a large group of citizens.

That has not happened. Instead, this Court has been presented with strained legal arguments without merit and speculative accusations, unpled in the operative complaint and unsupported by evidence. In the United States of America, this cannot justify the disenfranchisement of a single voter, let alone all the voters of its sixth most populated state. Our people, laws, and institutions demand more. At bottom, Plaintiffs have failed to meet their burden to state a claim upon which relief may be granted. Therefore, I grant Defendants’ motions and dismiss Plaintiffs’ action with prejudice.
https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov ... 02.0_1.pdf


Brann didn't hold back in any of this.
Plaintiffs’ only remaining claim alleges a violation of equal protection. This claim, like Frankenstein’s Monster, has been haphazardly stitched together from two distinct theories in an attempt to avoid controlling precedent.
:lol: I know next to nothing about law, but in reading this decision and the judges' constant referral to the Plantiffs briefs and cases being "misguided", "mix matched" as well as throwing anything against the wall and seeing what sticks (like the theory of competitive standing) - it amazes me that trained, professional lawyers would go into court with such hogwash. They must've known their case was flimsy.
Turns out I might be a little gay. 89Hen 11/7/17
User avatar
89Hen
Maroon Supporter
Maroon Supporter
Posts: 36845
Joined: Tue Jul 17, 2007 1:13 pm
I am a fan of: High Horses
A.K.A.: The Almighty Arbiter

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by 89Hen »

Who won?
Image
Ibanez
Supporter
Supporter
Posts: 55955
Joined: Fri Jul 13, 2007 5:16 pm
I am a fan of: Coastal Carolina

Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Ibanez »

This part might be favorite of the entire document
Moreover, even if they could state a valid claim, the Court could not grant Plaintiffs the relief they seek. Crucially, Plaintiffs fail to understand the relationship between right and remedy. Though every injury must have its proper redress,116 a court may not prescribe a remedy unhinged from the underlying right being asserted.117 By seeking injunctive relief preventing certification of the Pennsylvania election results, Plaintiffs ask this Court to do exactly that.

Even assuming that they can establish that their right to vote has been denied, which they cannot, Plaintiffs seek to remedy the denial of their votes by invalidating the votes of millions of others. Rather than requesting that their votes be counted, they seek to discredit scores of other votes, but only for one race.118 This is simply not how the Constitution works
The crux of Trumps legal strategy is right there - disenfranchise millions of voters in order to stay in office. If that isn't an obvious assault on the Constitution, I'm not sure what is.
Turns out I might be a little gay. 89Hen 11/7/17
Post Reply