2020 General Election

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Ibanez »

BDKJMU wrote: Sun Jul 18, 2021 6:45 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Jul 18, 2021 5:11 pm

The fact that something can be determined in this atmosphere has limited significance. It has been determined to any reasonable person's satisfaction that Biden won the election and there was not sufficient fraud or anything else to change the outcome. But it obviously doesn't matter to a large number of people on the Trump side. And the Arizona Republican Legislature is on the Trump side.

I think the Wuhan lab leak thing is still very questionable. I think that most virologists and evolutionary biologists who have studied the matter think the likelihood is that it was a leap from animal to human. I think it pretty much is a conspiracy theory regardless of the fact that the Biden Administration has breathed life into it. But we'll see what happens in the long run.

Here is what I think is a very credible article on the issue: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01529-3

I think what we have is people who want to believe it was a lab leak and will jump on any little crumb they get to keep that hypothesis alive.
Which very well could have been in the lab.
Yup. We shouldn't be discounting any potential theory and anyone that says otherwise either 1) knows the truth; or 2) is full of it.

I'll bet it's #2.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

Ibanez wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 6:38 am
BDKJMU wrote: Sun Jul 18, 2021 6:45 pm
Which very well could have been in the lab.
Yup. We shouldn't be discounting any potential theory and anyone that says otherwise either 1) knows the truth; or 2) is full of it.

I'll bet it's #2.
You are correct that we should not discount any theory. But I think there is a lot more evidence right now to suggest that it was animal to human than there is to suggest it was a lab leak.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

This is interesting:

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/07/1 ... ong-500050

It's particularly interesting to me because a few weeks ago I actually looked at all of the individual within-state polls for the Presidential election where results are available at Real Clear Politics (RCP) and where polling ended within 2 days prior to the election for 2012, 2016, and 2020.

There were only 21 such polls in 2020. And if you just take the point estimate they were only 11 - 10 correct in terms of the candidate with the higher point estimate winning. But the average margin was actually biased in FAVOR of Trump. On average, they over estimated Trump's performance in terms of margin by 0.6 percentage points.

In terms of which way they were wrong: There were 5 States where Trump had the higher point estimate and Biden won. There were six States where the higher point estimate said Bide win and Trump won. That's as close a split as one could get from 11 "misses."

Another way to look at it is to look at the RCP "no toss up" map at https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... s_ups.html. It did over estimate the Electoral College margin slightly. But there are only two States, Georgia and Florida, called wrong. In a "no toss up" approach, Biden was the favorite in Florida and Trump won. Trump was the favorite in Georgia and Biden won. In every other case, States showing Biden as the favorite went Biden and States showing Trump as the favorite went Trump.

I can only surmise that the American Association for Public Opinion Research is looking at more than I can see at Real Clear Politics in saying that the polls were "wrong" and that Trump's strength was under estimated. Or maybe the fact that I just looked at polls completed within 2 days prior to the election is part of the difference.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by CID1990 »

JohnStOnge wrote:
Ibanez wrote: Mon Jul 19, 2021 6:38 am Yup. We shouldn't be discounting any potential theory and anyone that says otherwise either 1) knows the truth; or 2) is full of it.

I'll bet it's #2.
You are correct that we should not discount any theory. But I think there is a lot more evidence right now to suggest that it was animal to human than there is to suggest it was a lab leak.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by JohnStOnge »

CID1990 wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:15 am
JohnStOnge wrote:
You are correct that we should not discount any theory. But I think there is a lot more evidence right now to suggest that it was animal to human than there is to suggest it was a lab leak.
You are doing a Felchy faceplant right now and you dont even know it


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There is a lot more evidence to suggest that it was an animal to human leap than there is to suggest that there was a lab leap. For some reason we have a bunch of people who want to believe it was a lab leak. And they will seize upon any little bit of information they can seize upon to keep that theory alive. But the people who know what they are talking about don't think it is likely at all.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by CID1990 »

JohnStOnge wrote:
CID1990 wrote: Tue Jul 20, 2021 7:15 am You are doing a Felchy faceplant right now and you dont even know it


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There is a lot more evidence to suggest that it was an animal to human leap than there is to suggest that there was a lab leap. For some reason we have a bunch of people who want to believe it was a lab leak. And they will seize upon any little bit of information they can seize upon to keep that theory alive. But the people who know what they are talking about don't think it is likely at all.
First of all, there isn’t more evidence in one direction or the other. That has been acknowledged pretty much across the board.

The scientific community is fairly evenly divided on the subject. However, the “evidence” that is being cited by the scientists who lean towards zoonotic transfer isn’t evidence at all. They are citing the probability based on the fact that all past pandemics were started via zoonotic transfer, ergo, this one must likely have the same origin.

The reason the Biden admin hasn’t been willing to back that argument up is because they have seen the intelligence.

Let’s revisit this one next year or so and see just how well your posts here have aged, shall we?


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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SDHornet »

SeattleGriz wrote: Sun Jul 18, 2021 10:04 am Safest and most secure!

Oh. :popcorn:

Saw there was an HBO doc that was talking about how unsecure the voting machines are that has since been unlisted. I wonder why.
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Re: 2020 General Election

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Skjellyfetti »

SeattleGriz wrote: Thu Jul 15, 2021 8:27 pm
Skjellyfetti wrote: Thu Jul 15, 2021 7:55 pm Doesn't sound great for SCOTUS naming Trump the rightful President by August. Oh well. Seems like the focus had begun shifting to Jawjuh anyway. That'll do it for sure.
Who other than the fringe believes they are going to kick Biden to the street and install Trump? I keep reading there is no precedent or pathway for this to happen.
Pretty sure Mike Lendell has been the main proponent of that for awhile now. Before, I thought you might also think he is "fringe"... but, now I assume not. :coffee:


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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Skjellyfetti »

Lol
Arizona GOP Audit Director Barred From Recount After Sharing Data Supporting Trump Loss

The Republican overseeing the controversial GOP-backed election audit in Arizona has reportedly been banned from entering the building where the recount process is ongoing, after he shared some data with experts that showed the results match the officially certified numbers in Maricopa County.

The Arizona Republic reported on Friday evening that Ken Bennett, Arizona's former Secretary of State who has been described as the audit's "director," was barred from entering the building on the state fairgrounds where the audit is moving forward. The newspaper reported that Bennett had shared some of the audit data with outside experts showing that the ballot recount was tracking "very closely" with Maricopa County's certified results.
https://www-newsweek-com.cdn.ampproject ... ss-1612791
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by UNI88 »

Skjellyfetti wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 6:40 am Lol
Arizona GOP Audit Director Barred From Recount After Sharing Data Supporting Trump Loss

The Republican overseeing the controversial GOP-backed election audit in Arizona has reportedly been banned from entering the building where the recount process is ongoing, after he shared some data with experts that showed the results match the officially certified numbers in Maricopa County.

The Arizona Republic reported on Friday evening that Ken Bennett, Arizona's former Secretary of State who has been described as the audit's "director," was barred from entering the building on the state fairgrounds where the audit is moving forward. The newspaper reported that Bennett had shared some of the audit data with outside experts showing that the ballot recount was tracking "very closely" with Maricopa County's certified results.
https://www-newsweek-com.cdn.ampproject ... ss-1612791
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by UNI88 »



So this is the clown that McCarthy picked to replace Cheney?

Republicans would be better served to shut their mouths and let the Democrats continue tripping over their pseudo-progressive dicks.
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Re: 2020 General Election

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UNI88 wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:21 am

So this is the clown that McCarthy picked to replace Cheney?

Republicans would be better served to shut their mouths and let the Democrats continue tripping over their pseudo-progressive dicks.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Ibanez »

Skjellyfetti wrote: Sun Jul 25, 2021 6:40 am Lol
Arizona GOP Audit Director Barred From Recount After Sharing Data Supporting Trump Loss

The Republican overseeing the controversial GOP-backed election audit in Arizona has reportedly been banned from entering the building where the recount process is ongoing, after he shared some data with experts that showed the results match the officially certified numbers in Maricopa County.

The Arizona Republic reported on Friday evening that Ken Bennett, Arizona's former Secretary of State who has been described as the audit's "director," was barred from entering the building on the state fairgrounds where the audit is moving forward. The newspaper reported that Bennett had shared some of the audit data with outside experts showing that the ballot recount was tracking "very closely" with Maricopa County's certified results.
https://www-newsweek-com.cdn.ampproject ... ss-1612791
It's obvious the Democrats have brainwashed him. He's part of the Deep State!!!!
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Re: 2020 General Election

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UNI88 wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:21 am

So this is the clown that McCarthy picked to replace Cheney?

Republicans would be better served to shut their mouths and let the Democrats continue tripping over their pseudo-progressive dicks.
Could be wrong, but think Pelosi has say on the amount of Capital Police available.
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Re: 2020 General Election

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Ibanez wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 11:10 am
It's obvious the Democrats have brainwashed him. He's part of the Deep State!!!!
What's Twitter afraid of?

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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by UNI88 »

SeattleGriz wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:37 pm
UNI88 wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:21 am

So this is the clown that McCarthy picked to replace Cheney?

Republicans would be better served to shut their mouths and let the Democrats continue tripping over their pseudo-progressive dicks.
Could be wrong, but think Pelosi has say on the amount of Capital Police available.
Pinning this on Pelosi and giving Trump a pass is disingenuous. She might have some responsibility but a reasonable moderate/independent isn't blaming her over Trump. This kind of rhetoric is S.T.U.P.I.D. and could hurt the Republican Party's chances in 2022 and 2024.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Ibanez »

SeattleGriz wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:37 pm
UNI88 wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 9:21 am

So this is the clown that McCarthy picked to replace Cheney?

Republicans would be better served to shut their mouths and let the Democrats continue tripping over their pseudo-progressive dicks.
Could be wrong, but think Pelosi has say on the amount of Capital Police available.
Does the Senate Majority leader have any control?
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SeattleGriz »

Ibanez wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:49 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:37 pm

Could be wrong, but think Pelosi has say on the amount of Capital Police available.
Does the Senate Majority leader have any control?
I don't know. I'm basing my memory off of around January and they wanted some investigation of Jan 6th. So, of course some Republican screams he'll bring Nancy in for questioning as she had a hand in staff levels that day.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SeattleGriz »

UNI88 wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:42 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 12:37 pm

Could be wrong, but think Pelosi has say on the amount of Capital Police available.
Pinning this on Pelosi and giving Trump a pass is disingenuous. She might have some responsibility but a reasonable moderate/independent isn't blaming her over Trump. This kind of rhetoric is S.T.U.P.I.D. and could hurt the Republican Party's chances in 2022 and 2024.
It's not pinning it on Pelosi if it's found out she knew there were going to be problems at the Capitol and she turned down National Guard offered support. It's pointing out her hypocrisy and how she has no leg to stand on.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by UNI88 »

SeattleGriz wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:59 pm
Ibanez wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:49 pm
Does the Senate Majority leader have any control?
I don't know. I'm basing my memory off of around January and they wanted some investigation of Jan 6th. So, of course some Republican screams he'll bring Nancy in for questioning as she had a hand in staff levels that day.
She, Trump and Pence should all testify.
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by CID1990 »

There's plenty of dumb to go around but trying to pin Jan 6 on Nancy Pelosi insults my intelligence
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Skjellyfetti »

SeattleGriz wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 2:01 pm she knew there were going to be problems at the Capitol and she turned down National Guard offered support
link? sounds like bullshit
The decision on whether to call National Guard troops to the Capitol is made by what is known as the Capitol Police Board, which is made up of the House Sergeant at Arms, the Senate Sergeant at Arms and the Architect of the Capitol. The board decided not to call the guard ahead of the insurrection but did eventually request assistance after the rioting had already begun, and the troops arrived several hours later.

The House Sergeant at Arms reports to Pelosi and the Senate Sergeant at Arms reported to McConnell, a Republican who was then Senate Majority Leader. There is no evidence that either directed the security officials not to call the guard beforehand, and Hammill said after the insurrection that Pelosi was never informed of such a request.

The officials on the board, along with the former Capitol Police chief, Steven Sund, have disputed each others’ accounts of who requested the guard when. Both Sergeants of Arms and the police chief resigned immediately after the attack.
https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-235651652542
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by SeattleGriz »

Skjellyfetti wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 4:47 pm
SeattleGriz wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 2:01 pm she knew there were going to be problems at the Capitol and she turned down National Guard offered support
link? sounds like bullshit
The decision on whether to call National Guard troops to the Capitol is made by what is known as the Capitol Police Board, which is made up of the House Sergeant at Arms, the Senate Sergeant at Arms and the Architect of the Capitol. The board decided not to call the guard ahead of the insurrection but did eventually request assistance after the rioting had already begun, and the troops arrived several hours later.

The House Sergeant at Arms reports to Pelosi and the Senate Sergeant at Arms reported to McConnell, a Republican who was then Senate Majority Leader. There is no evidence that either directed the security officials not to call the guard beforehand, and Hammill said after the insurrection that Pelosi was never informed of such a request.

The officials on the board, along with the former Capitol Police chief, Steven Sund, have disputed each others’ accounts of who requested the guard when. Both Sergeants of Arms and the police chief resigned immediately after the attack.
https://apnews.com/article/fact-checking-235651652542
Here you go. Was Ted Cruz. By the way, was that the branch of the AP that lied about Hamas?

https://trendingpolitics.com/breaking-t ... ent-trial/
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Re: 2020 General Election

Post by Ibanez »

SeattleGriz wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:59 pm
Ibanez wrote: Tue Jul 27, 2021 1:49 pm

Does the Senate Majority leader have any control?
I don't know. I'm basing my memory off of around January and they wanted some investigation of Jan 6th. So, of course some Republican screams he'll bring Nancy in for questioning as she had a hand in staff levels that day.
I honestly don't know what the Speaker of the House has to do with Capital security. They can have a role in the LE of the building?
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