2020 Election Predictions

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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by LeadBolt »

JohnStOnge wrote:
BDKJMU wrote: Fri Oct 30, 2020 7:28 pm Meanwhile thousands packed at the edge of the rally location, even knowing they couldn't get in.
What a bunch of idiots. I don't know if Trump will win or lose this time. But I do know the handwriting is on the wall for the Republican Party in the long term. And once the Republican Party is out of power we need to identify idiots like that and banish them all to some Island in the South Pacific. We really would be better off as a country without the kind of people that would support Trump.
How wonderfully inclusive and open minded of you.


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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by SeattleGriz »

LeadBolt wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 3:26 pm
JohnStOnge wrote:
What a bunch of idiots. I don't know if Trump will win or lose this time. But I do know the handwriting is on the wall for the Republican Party in the long term. And once the Republican Party is out of power we need to identify idiots like that and banish them all to some Island in the South Pacific. We really would be better off as a country without the kind of people that would support Trump.
How wonderfully inclusive and open minded of you.


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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 1:20 pm If I had to bet now I would bet Trump. It's not that I have no hope. That is just what I would bet if I had to bet. The reasons are as follows:

1. Even if it were a normal election, there is not sufficient evidence from polling data at this time to say Biden will win. The 538 forecast indicates 89% confidence. Sufficient evidence is 95% confidence.

2. We are not in normal times. Ironically, Democrat voters are more rational and are making more of an effort to act responsibly in response to the pandemic. That means they are far more likely to vote by mail. Voting by mail carries greater risk of making a mistake so that the vote is not counted.

3. Republicans are making substantial effort to suppress voting. Vote by mail comes into this again. They know Democrats are far more likely to vote by mail and therefore are doing all they can to make sure mail in votes are not counted.

It is a shame because I do think a solid majority of the American People want this guy out. But if I had to bet I'd bet he stays in. Hope I am pleasantly surprised.

Even if Biden wins, we will still have a big problem. The fact that we have enough people in this country who would vote for somebody like Donald Trump to allow him to be President once and be in serious contention to do it twice is a big problem. We have a problem with population quality. We have a cultural rot that needs to be expunged.

The good news is that all indications are it will be. Maybe not this time. But, inevitably, it will be. What we are witnessing is the last gasp of the rot.
By what measure do you make the claim that “a solid majority of the American people want this guy out.”? 56% of Americans say they are better off than they were 4 years ago. Trump is probably going to get 45-50% of the Latino vote, 30+% of the AA vote, etc., etc. You keep going all “Hillary” and calling anyone who votes for Trump “dumb”, “stupid”, “idiotic”, violent, etc., etc.....y’all just don’t ever learn, do you?
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by JohnStOnge »

AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:12 pm
By what measure do you make the claim that “a solid majority of the American people want this guy out.”?
Polling consistently indicates that, overall, people favor Biden by a solid margin. He will win the popular vote. And, unlike Clinton, he will almost certainly win a majority of it.
56% of Americans say they are better off than they were 4 years ago.
Much has been made of the Gallup poll that had that result. Other polls have had different results. Example: https://ig.ft.com/ft-peterson-poll/
Trump is probably going to get 45-50% of the Latino vote, 30+% of the AA vote, etc., etc.
Neither of those things are going to happen. I think it's far more likely that Trump will get 30 to 35 percent of the Latino vote and 10 to 15 percent of the African American vote. I think the idea that he is going to get 30%+ of the African American vote is particularly unrealistic.

The majority of Americans do not want this guy as President. If you don't believe that you are simply not dealing with reality.
You keep going all “Hillary” and calling anyone who votes for Trump “dumb”, “stupid”, “idiotic”, violent, etc., etc.....y’all just don’t ever learn, do you?
Some intelligent people will vote for Trump. However, the exit polls will show that likelihood of voting for Trump decreases as education level increases. And voting for Trump will remain a stupid thing to do. If you are intelligent and vote for Trump, you will be an intelligent person who did a stupid thing.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:02 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:12 pm
By what measure do you make the claim that “a solid majority of the American people want this guy out.”?
Polling consistently indicates that, overall, people favor Biden by a solid margin. He will win the popular vote. And, unlike Clinton, he will almost certainly win a majority of it.
56% of Americans say they are better off than they were 4 years ago.
Much has been made of the Gallup poll that had that result. Other polls have had different results. Example: https://ig.ft.com/ft-peterson-poll/
Trump is probably going to get 45-50% of the Latino vote, 30+% of the AA vote, etc., etc.
Neither of those things are going to happen. I think it's far more likely that Trump will get 30 to 35 percent of the Latino vote and 10 to 15 percent of the African American vote. I think the idea that he is going to get 30%+ of the African American vote is particularly unrealistic.

The majority of Americans do not want this guy as President. If you don't believe that you are simply not dealing with reality.
You keep going all “Hillary” and calling anyone who votes for Trump “dumb”, “stupid”, “idiotic”, violent, etc., etc.....y’all just don’t ever learn, do you?
Some intelligent people will vote for Trump. However, the exit polls will show that likelihood of voting for Trump decreases as education level increases. And voting for Trump will remain a stupid thing to do. If you are intelligent and vote for Trump, you will be an intelligent person who did a stupid thing.
Well, like I said in another thread that you didn’t respond to, the past 8 mentors have opened a fuck ton of eyes as to what the left really stands for (hint: it ain’t pretty). Riots, looting, ridiculous moves towards a socialist economy and state, etc., etc. Early voting in Texas favors Republicans 58-36%. People are MOTIVATED. And I believe they‘ve been motivated by what has transpired since the riots started.

I guess we’ll know in the next couple weeks.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by css75 »

I am not giving a score, but I have these predictions:

1. Trump wins re election by a larger margin than 2016.
2. Senate stays GOP, though the majority could be smaller.
3. House flips to GOP, Pelosi retires.
4. The polls lose all credibility and many shut down.
5. The corruption that has ruined our political system will be cleaned up.
6. Multiple attempts will Be made on Trump’s life.
7. Economy booms,
8. Things fall apart after Trump.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by SDHornet »

JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:02 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:12 pm
By what measure do you make the claim that “a solid majority of the American people want this guy out.”?
Polling consistently indicates that, overall, people favor Biden by a solid margin. He will win the popular vote. And, unlike Clinton, he will almost certainly win a majority of it.
56% of Americans say they are better off than they were 4 years ago.
Much has been made of the Gallup poll that had that result. Other polls have had different results. Example: https://ig.ft.com/ft-peterson-poll/
Trump is probably going to get 45-50% of the Latino vote, 30+% of the AA vote, etc., etc.
Neither of those things are going to happen. I think it's far more likely that Trump will get 30 to 35 percent of the Latino vote and 10 to 15 percent of the African American vote. I think the idea that he is going to get 30%+ of the African American vote is particularly unrealistic.

The majority of Americans do not want this guy as President. If you don't believe that you are simply not dealing with reality.
You keep going all “Hillary” and calling anyone who votes for Trump “dumb”, “stupid”, “idiotic”, violent, etc., etc.....y’all just don’t ever learn, do you?
Some intelligent people will vote for Trump. However, the exit polls will show that likelihood of voting for Trump decreases as education level increases. And voting for Trump will remain a stupid thing to do. If you are intelligent and vote for Trump, you will be an intelligent person who did a stupid thing.
I agree Trump won't get the turnout at the voting booth as those polls are indicating with Team Brown and blacks, but you do realize that a few ticks in percentage points towards Trump with those demographics and we get into landslide territory, right?

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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by Baldy »

JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:02 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:12 pm
By what measure do you make the claim that “a solid majority of the American people want this guy out.”?
Polling consistently indicates that, overall, people favor Biden by a solid margin. He will win the popular vote. And, unlike Clinton, he will almost certainly win a majority of it.
56% of Americans say they are better off than they were 4 years ago.
Much has been made of the Gallup poll that had that result. Other polls have had different results. Example: https://ig.ft.com/ft-peterson-poll/
Trump is probably going to get 45-50% of the Latino vote, 30+% of the AA vote, etc., etc.
Neither of those things are going to happen. I think it's far more likely that Trump will get 30 to 35 percent of the Latino vote and 10 to 15 percent of the African American vote. I think the idea that he is going to get 30%+ of the African American vote is particularly unrealistic.

The majority of Americans do not want this guy as President. If you don't believe that you are simply not dealing with reality.
You keep going all “Hillary” and calling anyone who votes for Trump “dumb”, “stupid”, “idiotic”, violent, etc., etc.....y’all just don’t ever learn, do you?
Some intelligent people will vote for Trump. However, the exit polls will show that likelihood of voting for Trump decreases as education level increases. And voting for Trump will remain a stupid thing to do. If you are intelligent and vote for Trump, you will be an intelligent person who did a stupid thing.
"Conservative" JohnStalinOnge thinks voting for Trump is a stupid thing, when this is the alternative. :?

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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by Gil Dobie »

JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:02 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 4:12 pm
By what measure do you make the claim that “a solid majority of the American people want this guy out.”?
Polling consistently indicates that, overall, people favor Biden by a solid margin. He will win the popular vote. And, unlike Clinton, he will almost certainly win a majority of it.
56% of Americans say they are better off than they were 4 years ago.
Much has been made of the Gallup poll that had that result. Other polls have had different results. Example: https://ig.ft.com/ft-peterson-poll/
Trump is probably going to get 45-50% of the Latino vote, 30+% of the AA vote, etc., etc.
Neither of those things are going to happen. I think it's far more likely that Trump will get 30 to 35 percent of the Latino vote and 10 to 15 percent of the African American vote. I think the idea that he is going to get 30%+ of the African American vote is particularly unrealistic.

The majority of Americans do not want this guy as President. If you don't believe that you are simply not dealing with reality.
You keep going all “Hillary” and calling anyone who votes for Trump “dumb”, “stupid”, “idiotic”, violent, etc., etc.....y’all just don’t ever learn, do you?
Some intelligent people will vote for Trump. However, the exit polls will show that likelihood of voting for Trump decreases as education level increases. And voting for Trump will remain a stupid thing to do. If you are intelligent and vote for Trump, you will be an intelligent person who did a stupid thing.
Again the Dems offer a crappy alternative to Trump. I don't like Trump, never have liked Trump since I first read about him in the 1970s. Biden, in all probability, will make this Covid mess worse, therefore making the economy worse. Dems had a great opportunity this year, but offered us shit to oppose crap. I voted for my favorite politician not named Trump and not named Biden.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by GannonFan »

Gil Dobie wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:22 am
JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Nov 01, 2020 7:02 pm

Polling consistently indicates that, overall, people favor Biden by a solid margin. He will win the popular vote. And, unlike Clinton, he will almost certainly win a majority of it.



Much has been made of the Gallup poll that had that result. Other polls have had different results. Example: https://ig.ft.com/ft-peterson-poll/



Neither of those things are going to happen. I think it's far more likely that Trump will get 30 to 35 percent of the Latino vote and 10 to 15 percent of the African American vote. I think the idea that he is going to get 30%+ of the African American vote is particularly unrealistic.

The majority of Americans do not want this guy as President. If you don't believe that you are simply not dealing with reality.



Some intelligent people will vote for Trump. However, the exit polls will show that likelihood of voting for Trump decreases as education level increases. And voting for Trump will remain a stupid thing to do. If you are intelligent and vote for Trump, you will be an intelligent person who did a stupid thing.
Again the Dems offer a crappy alternative to Trump. I don't like Trump, never have liked Trump since I first read about him in the 1970s. Biden, in all probability, will make this Covid mess worse, therefore making the economy worse. Dems had a great opportunity this year, but offered us shit to oppose crap. I voted for my favorite politician not named Trump and not named Biden.
It is stunning how badly the Democrats have managed this election. They had 4 years to get their crap together and put something credible forward in order to beat Trump, and it looks like they've completely bungled that effort. It's hard to find a worse candidate than Biden, and in the Dems defense, he's at least a step up from Hillary in 2016. But they needed to do better than just a step up and they didn't. I'm not voting for Trump because I could never reconcile myself voting for that person (and I even like some of his policies). But the Dems haven't given me a viable alternative to vote for them either. Just an embarrassment of a party that they couldn't do better than Biden.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by kalm »

GannonFan wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:51 am
Gil Dobie wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 5:22 am

Again the Dems offer a crappy alternative to Trump. I don't like Trump, never have liked Trump since I first read about him in the 1970s. Biden, in all probability, will make this Covid mess worse, therefore making the economy worse. Dems had a great opportunity this year, but offered us shit to oppose crap. I voted for my favorite politician not named Trump and not named Biden.
It is stunning how badly the Democrats have managed this election. They had 4 years to get their crap together and put something credible forward in order to beat Trump, and it looks like they've completely bungled that effort. It's hard to find a worse candidate than Biden, and in the Dems defense, he's at least a step up from Hillary in 2016. But they needed to do better than just a step up and they didn't. I'm not voting for Trump because I could never reconcile myself voting for that person (and I even like some of his policies). But the Dems haven't given me a viable alternative to vote for them either. Just an embarrassment of a party that they couldn't do better than Biden.
I’ve actually been surprised at how well Biden has campaigned. The party as a whole are paid losers. See Pelosi and Schumer.

This reminds me of 2010. Bo Levi Mitchell three 6 pick 6’s that season and was heavily doubted heading into the playoffs.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by GannonFan »

kalm wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:11 am
GannonFan wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 6:51 am

It is stunning how badly the Democrats have managed this election. They had 4 years to get their crap together and put something credible forward in order to beat Trump, and it looks like they've completely bungled that effort. It's hard to find a worse candidate than Biden, and in the Dems defense, he's at least a step up from Hillary in 2016. But they needed to do better than just a step up and they didn't. I'm not voting for Trump because I could never reconcile myself voting for that person (and I even like some of his policies). But the Dems haven't given me a viable alternative to vote for them either. Just an embarrassment of a party that they couldn't do better than Biden.
I’ve actually been surprised at how well Biden has campaigned. The party as a whole are paid losers. See Pelosi and Schumer.

This reminds me of 2010. Bo Levi Mitchell three 6 pick 6’s that season and was heavily doubted heading into the playoffs.
So you're saying Biden needs somebody to completely screw up the ballots or the counting, ala screwing up the yard marker on a 4th down fail to convert, and he has a chance to win? :lol:

Come on, Biden is limping to the finish line here. He's clearly fatigued and being dragged along the way. It's Weekend at Bernie's on a political stage. I don't think the whole Democratic Party is for crap, the local level Democratic Party is actually really good and run pretty well. They just can't get the loons in DC (Schumer and Pelosi as you mentioned - how the heck they could keep electing Pelosi to be Speaker is beyond me - they have to find a way to exit her from that post after this election) out of the way and that drags them down.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by kalm »

GannonFan wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:23 am
kalm wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 7:11 am

I’ve actually been surprised at how well Biden has campaigned. The party as a whole are paid losers. See Pelosi and Schumer.

This reminds me of 2010. Bo Levi Mitchell three 6 pick 6’s that season and was heavily doubted heading into the playoffs.
So you're saying Biden needs somebody to completely screw up the ballots or the counting, ala screwing up the yard marker on a 4th down fail to convert, and he has a chance to win? :lol:

Come on, Biden is limping to the finish line here. He's clearly fatigued and being dragged along the way. It's Weekend at Bernie's on a political stage. I don't think the whole Democratic Party is for crap, the local level Democratic Party is actually really good and run pretty well. They just can't get the loons in DC (Schumer and Pelosi as you mentioned - how the heck they could keep electing Pelosi to be Speaker is beyond me - they have to find a way to exit her from that post after this election) out of the way and that drags them down.
Touché! :lol:
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

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https://news.yahoo.com/joe-biden-leads- ... 49450.html
President Trump heads into the final, frenetic 48 hours of campaign 2020 having lost ground among key groups that powered his drive to the presidency four years ago, the final USC Dornsife poll of the election shows.

Former Vice President Joe Biden leads Trump by double digits nationally — 54% to 43% in the poll's daily tracking, a margin that has remained almost unchanging since summer.
As a reminder - this was the most accurate poll in 2016.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by Skjellyfetti »

BDK's favorite pollster has Biden +4 in PA
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public ... 9_trump_45
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

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270 To Win already has Biden with 290.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by kalm »

Skjellyfetti wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:47 am BDK's favorite pollster has Biden +4 in PA
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public ... 9_trump_45
And + 1 in Florida.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by Ibanez »

Prediction - Trump will sue no matter win or lose. Then bitch and moan about whatever slight he's perceived. He loves to play the victim.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by GannonFan »

kalm wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:38 pm
Skjellyfetti wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 11:47 am BDK's favorite pollster has Biden +4 in PA
https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public ... 9_trump_45
And + 1 in Florida.
A Biden landslide, it's inevitable. Can he hit 400 electoral votes or is that out of reach?
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by kalm »

GannonFan wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:40 pm
kalm wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:38 pm

And + 1 in Florida.
A Biden landslide, it's inevitable. Can he hit 400 electoral votes or is that out of reach?
Don’t blame me. I’m just reporting what Rasmussen released.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by GannonFan »

kalm wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:50 pm
GannonFan wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 12:40 pm

A Biden landslide, it's inevitable. Can he hit 400 electoral votes or is that out of reach?
Don’t blame me. I’m just reporting what Rasmussen released.
Not blaming anyone for anything. Hard to see this not being a massive blue tsunami tomorrow. I just wanted to know if the deep South (minus Georgia and Florida) and the thin line of the Midwest is enough to get Trump the 139 votes he needs to stop Biden from getting 400+.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by Skjellyfetti »

GannonFan wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:30 pmHard to see this not being a massive blue tsunami tomorrow. I just wanted to know if the deep South (minus Georgia and Florida) and the thin line of the Midwest is enough to get Trump the 139 votes he needs to stop Biden from getting 400+.
From hard to see anyone getting over 300 EVs to obviously a blue tsunami and wondering if Biden will get over 400. :shock:

What shifted you so much in the past week?
GannonFan wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:42 am I got it going for Biden, 275 to 263. I don't see anyone getting over 300 electoral votes like how Trump did back in 2016. Going to be a close one, for sure, and likely to be litigated well into late November/early December.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by GannonFan »

Skjellyfetti wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:37 pm
GannonFan wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:30 pmHard to see this not being a massive blue tsunami tomorrow. I just wanted to know if the deep South (minus Georgia and Florida) and the thin line of the Midwest is enough to get Trump the 139 votes he needs to stop Biden from getting 400+.
From hard to see anyone getting over 300 EVs to obviously a blue tsunami and wondering if Biden will get over 400. :shock:

What shifted you so much in the past week?
GannonFan wrote: Wed Oct 28, 2020 7:42 am I got it going for Biden, 275 to 263. I don't see anyone getting over 300 electoral votes like how Trump did back in 2016. Going to be a close one, for sure, and likely to be litigated well into late November/early December.
Every survey now saying otherwise. The race is either unchanged or widening. Biden's running away with it. I may not even go out and vote tomorrow, it might already be over before the polls open. Besides, I've never really trolled before, it's a fascinating phenomenon. :coffee:
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by SeattleGriz »

GannonFan wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:42 pm
Skjellyfetti wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:37 pm

From hard to see anyone getting over 300 EVs to obviously a blue tsunami and wondering if Biden will get over 400. :shock:

What shifted you so much in the past week?

Every survey now saying otherwise. The race is either unchanged or widening. Biden's running away with it. I may not even go out and vote tomorrow, it might already be over before the polls open. Besides, I've never really trolled before, it's a fascinating phenomenon. :coffee:
Welcome to shit posting! :lol:
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

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