2020 Election Predictions

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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by houndawg »

UNI88 wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:54 am
89Hen wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:36 am

:suspicious:


Ironic - if Biden takes AZ and GA, Trump loses by the same EC landslide he won by in '16. :thumb:
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by UNI88 »

kalm wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 9:03 pm
BDKJMU wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 8:53 pm
Doesn't matter what I want. If Trump runs (and I think its better than 50/50 he will), he'll be the nominee.. :coffee:
That would be...........

AWESOME!!!
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by houndawg »

JoltinJoe wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:13 am
Ibanez wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:58 am

I think it'll be 306 Electoral Votes that gives him the Presidency.

The Republicans don't care about Trump? Have you not been paying attention? They care. They're afraid of him. He's bigly popular and once he's outta the White House, he'll still be a "king maker".
Biden has zero electoral votes at the moment. He won't have any until the state legislators choose electors.

You have numerous states, with Republican-controlled legislatures, in which voting procedures, fixed by legislation. were altered by executive branch executive orders. It is highly possible that some state legislatures will not appoint these electors chosen by this beauty contest, if the executive branch altered the procedures fixed by legislation. Note that this happened in Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michicgan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia -- and each of these states have legislatures controlled by Republicans.

NOTHING requires any state legislature to appoint the electors "chosen" by popular vote in the state. That vote is purely a beauty contest. The state legislatures have the plenary right to choose electors and, even when delegated to a popular vote, the state legislature may revoke that delegation at any time. So, if you see where this can heading, it is pretty clear that the Republicans still control the outcome of this election, if they are willing to go nuclear.

"Whatever provisions may be made by statute, or by the state constitution, to choose electors by the people, there is no doubt of the right of the legislature to resume the power at any time, for it can neither be taken away nor abdicated.'" McPherson v. Blacker, 146 U.S. 1, 35 (quoting Senate Rep. 1st Sess. 43d Cong. No. 395.)

My bet is a deal gets made.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by houndawg »

JoltinJoe wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:14 am
houndawg wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:02 am

They don't need to cut a deal, the Rs need to cut a deal
Not so. The Republicans still control the outcome of this election, and can dictate the result, if they want to go nuclear. Will they go nuclear is the question. But I bet they will at least threaten to go nuclear.
Sure they'll threaten - but we're not talking about 1,000 votes in one state, we're talking about margins of thousands, which don't cause reelections to be contested. Because voter fraud is vanishingly small.


South Dakota might - their governor sure is a sore loser all over the news shows this morning :lol:
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by AZGrizFan »

JoltinJoe wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:13 am

Biden has zero electoral votes at the moment. He won't have any until the state legislators choose electors.

You have numerous states, with Republican-controlled legislatures, in which voting procedures, fixed by legislation. were altered by executive branch executive orders. It is highly possible that some state legislatures will not appoint these electors chosen by this beauty contest, if the executive branch altered the procedures fixed by legislation. Note that this happened in Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michicgan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia -- and each of these states have legislatures controlled by Republicans.

NOTHING requires any state legislature to appoint the electors "chosen" by popular vote in the state. That vote is purely a beauty contest. The state legislatures have the plenary right to choose electors and, even when delegated to a popular vote, the state legislature may revoke that delegation at any time. So, if you see where this can heading, it is pretty clear that the Republicans still control the outcome of this election, if they are willing to go nuclear.

"Whatever provisions may be made by statute, or by the state constitution, to choose electors by the people, there is no doubt of the right of the legislature to resume the power at any time, for it can neither be taken away nor abdicated.'" McPherson v. Blacker, 146 U.S. 1, 35 (quoting Senate Rep. 1st Sess. 43d Cong. No. 395.)

My bet is a deal gets made.
A) what kind of deal?
B) I sure hope you’re wrong. If these Rep state legislatures do that and change votes, I think we will have just seen the death of the electoral college. They’d be better served investigating the perceived voter fraud and proving THAT than changing the “beauty contest” results without legitimate proof. Otherwise, the whole process falls apart and it’s the beginning of the end.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by UNI88 »

UNI88 wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:09 pm
SDHornet wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 3:47 pm
Meh, It'll cost the DNC more congressional seats.
The infighting between AOC, the Squat, etc. and moderates like Spanberger and Veasey is going to be interesting.

Which party is most likely to have an ideological split?
AOC said she might quit politics, as some centrist Democrats blame progressives for House losses, NYT says
She also told The Times that she wants Democrats to stop looking at progressive causes as the enemy, and that if they don't, "they're just setting up their own obsolescence." On Twitter, she said ignoring progressive activists deters Black, Brown, and youth organizers who help deliver victories for Democrats.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by UNI88 »

AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:50 am
JoltinJoe wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:13 am
Biden has zero electoral votes at the moment. He won't have any until the state legislators choose electors.

You have numerous states, with Republican-controlled legislatures, in which voting procedures, fixed by legislation. were altered by executive branch executive orders. It is highly possible that some state legislatures will not appoint these electors chosen by this beauty contest, if the executive branch altered the procedures fixed by legislation. Note that this happened in Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michicgan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia -- and each of these states have legislatures controlled by Republicans.

NOTHING requires any state legislature to appoint the electors "chosen" by popular vote in the state. That vote is purely a beauty contest. The state legislatures have the plenary right to choose electors and, even when delegated to a popular vote, the state legislature may revoke that delegation at any time. So, if you see where this can heading, it is pretty clear that the Republicans still control the outcome of this election, if they are willing to go nuclear.

"Whatever provisions may be made by statute, or by the state constitution, to choose electors by the people, there is no doubt of the right of the legislature to resume the power at any time, for it can neither be taken away nor abdicated.'" McPherson v. Blacker, 146 U.S. 1, 35 (quoting Senate Rep. 1st Sess. 43d Cong. No. 395.)

My bet is a deal gets made.
A) what kind of deal?
B) I sure hope you’re wrong. If these Rep state legislatures do that and change votes, I think we will have just seen the death of the electoral college. They’d be better served investigating the perceived voter fraud and proving THAT than changing the “beauty contest” results without legitimate proof. Otherwise, the whole process falls apart and it’s the beginning of the end.
:nod: and preserving the electoral college is more important than Trump's reelection.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by kalm »

UNI88 wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:51 am
UNI88 wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:09 pm

The infighting between AOC, the Squat, etc. and moderates like Spanberger and Veasey is going to be interesting.

Which party is most likely to have an ideological split?
AOC said she might quit politics, as some centrist Democrats blame progressives for House losses, NYT says
She also told The Times that she wants Democrats to stop looking at progressive causes as the enemy, and that if they don't, "they're just setting up their own obsolescence." On Twitter, she said ignoring progressive activists deters Black, Brown, and youth organizers who help deliver victories for Democrats.
While the squad and justice democrats went undefeated in this election. Venezuela...here we come! :ohno:
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by UNI88 »

kalm wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:14 am
While the squad and justice democrats went undefeated in this election. Venezuela...here we come! :ohno:
What she seems to be oblivious to is that there are Democrats who have different priorities and that if the pseudo-progressives self-righteously ignore or marginalize them then they won't vote or will switch parties and the Republicans could gain control of the House. Spanberger, Veasey, etc. are important to Democratic control of the House. Lose them and impeach Biden (or Harris) could follow.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by kalm »

UNI88 wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:46 am
kalm wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:14 am

While the squad and justice democrats went undefeated in this election. Venezuela...here we come! :ohno:
What she seems to be oblivious to is that there are Democrats who have different priorities and that if the pseudo-progressives self-righteously ignore or marginalize them then they won't vote or will switch parties and the Republicans could gain control of the House. Spanberger, Veasey, etc. are important to Democratic control of the House. Lose them and impeach Biden (or Harris) could follow.
Thanks for winning seats for us and negotiating some serious reform...now hush up and be good little progressives.

I agree with your prediction of a serious battle mounting in the Democratic Party.

I’m Switzerland for right now on this one. You may be right on the mechanics but Democrats get their asses kicked when politicking Republican Lite too.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

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kalm wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:16 am
UNI88 wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 10:46 am

What she seems to be oblivious to is that there are Democrats who have different priorities and that if the pseudo-progressives self-righteously ignore or marginalize them then they won't vote or will switch parties and the Republicans could gain control of the House. Spanberger, Veasey, etc. are important to Democratic control of the House. Lose them and impeach Biden (or Harris) could follow.
Thanks for winning seats for us and negotiating some serious reform...now hush up and be good little progressives.

I agree with your prediction of a serious battle mounting in the Democratic Party.

I’m Switzerland for right now on this one. You may be right on the mechanics but Democrats get their asses kicked when politicking Republican Lite too.
I’m not quite sure what you mean by Republican Lite, but here in Texas, the Democrats only needed to pick up 9 state House seats to take control of that body...and they put up nine progressives and spent tons of cash...

The result was not one lose for the Republicans...

This is a big country...I don’t think that what works in NYC for AOC will work some other parts of the country...
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by UNI88 »

Col Hogan wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 12:02 pm
kalm wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:16 am
Thanks for winning seats for us and negotiating some serious reform...now hush up and be good little progressives.

I agree with your prediction of a serious battle mounting in the Democratic Party.

I’m Switzerland for right now on this one. You may be right on the mechanics but Democrats get their asses kicked when politicking Republican Lite too.
I’m not quite sure what you mean by Republican Lite, but here in Texas, the Democrats only needed to pick up 9 state House seats to take control of that body...and they put up nine progressives and spent tons of cash...

The result was not one lose for the Republicans...

This is a big country...I don’t think that what works in NYC for AOC will work some other parts of the country...
:nod:

What do the people in Spanberger's and similar districts think of Democratic leaders enabling the rioting and looting in Portland and other cities? The Democratic Party needs those votes and seats.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by UNI88 »

Baldy wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:10 am
This video is too good, I couldn't just let it slip through the cracks ... Kalm, tell us how this isn't a precursor to socialism/marxism?
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by kalm »

UNI88 wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 12:20 pm
Baldy wrote: Mon Nov 02, 2020 2:10 am
This video is too good, I couldn't just let it slip through the cracks ... Kalm, tell us how this isn't a precursor to socialism/marxism?
I disagree with the summary that equality means we all end up at the same place. The idea of fair competition should be the emphasis.

It’s not a precursor to socialism.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by kalm »

Col Hogan wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 12:02 pm
kalm wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 11:16 am

Thanks for winning seats for us and negotiating some serious reform...now hush up and be good little progressives.

I agree with your prediction of a serious battle mounting in the Democratic Party.

I’m Switzerland for right now on this one. You may be right on the mechanics but Democrats get their asses kicked when politicking Republican Lite too.
I’m not quite sure what you mean by Republican Lite, but here in Texas, the Democrats only needed to pick up 9 state House seats to take control of that body...and they put up nine progressives and spent tons of cash...

The result was not one lose for the Republicans...

This is a big country...I don’t think that what works in NYC for AOC will work some other parts of the country...
Interesting regarding Texas and you are right regarding the differences between districts.

Republican Lite means voters often tend to choose candidates with greater conviction when the Democrat tries to run to the right vs offering a clear alternative.

See the congressional and state house gains by Republicans with Pelosi and Schumer in control of the dem establishment.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

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kalm wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:50 pm
UNI88 wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 12:20 pm

This video is too good, I couldn't just let it slip through the cracks ... Kalm, tell us how this isn't a precursor to socialism/marxism?
I disagree with the summary that equality means we all end up at the same place. The idea of fair competition should be the emphasis.

It’s not a precursor to socialism.
YOU disagree with it, but about 75% of your leftie compatriots don’t. They think it’s their god given right.

And “fair competition” would mean you support getting rid of all the affirmative action bullshit that skews the playing field across the board.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by kalm »

AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:29 pm
kalm wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:50 pm

I disagree with the summary that equality means we all end up at the same place. The idea of fair competition should be the emphasis.

It’s not a precursor to socialism.
YOU disagree with it, but about 75% of your leftie compatriots don’t. They think it’s their god given right.

And “fair competition” would mean you support getting rid of all the affirmative action bullshit that skews the playing field across the board.
75%? Good god!!! You would think Biden would have won by more!!!
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by AZGrizFan »

kalm wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:36 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 3:29 pm

YOU disagree with it, but about 75% of your leftie compatriots don’t. They think it’s their god given right.

And “fair competition” would mean you support getting rid of all the affirmative action bullshit that skews the playing field across the board.
75%? Good god!!! You would think Biden would have won by more!!!
Why? Every single one of them voted for him. I didn’t say 75% of the country.

It’s math, i know its hard for directional school graduates.... :coffee: :coffee:
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by UNI88 »

kalm wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:50 pm
UNI88 wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 12:20 pm

This video is too good, I couldn't just let it slip through the cracks ... Kalm, tell us how this isn't a precursor to socialism/marxism?
I disagree with the summary that equality means we all end up at the same place. The idea of fair competition should be the emphasis.

It’s not a precursor to socialism.
Did you watch the video? Kamala Harris literally closes with the statement that "equitable treatments means we all end up at the same place." If Kamala is serious about this then she wants to bring us much closer to socialism and that is a precursor regardless of whether you agree with the summary.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

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UNI88 wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:46 pm
kalm wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:50 pm

I disagree with the summary that equality means we all end up at the same place. The idea of fair competition should be the emphasis.

It’s not a precursor to socialism.
Did you watch the video? Kamala Harris literally closes with the statement that "equitable treatments means we all end up at the same place." If Kamala is serious about this then she wants to bring us much closer to socialism and that is a precursor regardless of whether you agree with the summary.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by Ibanez »

BDKJMU wrote:
Ibanez wrote: Sat Nov 07, 2020 8:42 pm You really want to run a guy who lost to a 78 yr old man with diminishing cognitive abilities? Trumps out. Haley’s in.


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Doesn't matter what I want. If Trump runs (and I think its better than 50/50 he will), he'll be the nominee.. :coffee:
Can prisioners run for office?



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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by Ibanez »

AZGrizFan wrote:
JoltinJoe wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:13 am

Biden has zero electoral votes at the moment. He won't have any until the state legislators choose electors.

You have numerous states, with Republican-controlled legislatures, in which voting procedures, fixed by legislation. were altered by executive branch executive orders. It is highly possible that some state legislatures will not appoint these electors chosen by this beauty contest, if the executive branch altered the procedures fixed by legislation. Note that this happened in Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michicgan, Pennsylvania, and Georgia -- and each of these states have legislatures controlled by Republicans.

NOTHING requires any state legislature to appoint the electors "chosen" by popular vote in the state. That vote is purely a beauty contest. The state legislatures have the plenary right to choose electors and, even when delegated to a popular vote, the state legislature may revoke that delegation at any time. So, if you see where this can heading, it is pretty clear that the Republicans still control the outcome of this election, if they are willing to go nuclear.

"Whatever provisions may be made by statute, or by the state constitution, to choose electors by the people, there is no doubt of the right of the legislature to resume the power at any time, for it can neither be taken away nor abdicated.'" McPherson v. Blacker, 146 U.S. 1, 35 (quoting Senate Rep. 1st Sess. 43d Cong. No. 395.)

My bet is a deal gets made.
A) what kind of deal?
B) I sure hope you’re wrong. If these Rep state legislatures do that and change votes, I think we will have just seen the death of the electoral college. They’d be better served investigating the perceived voter fraud and proving THAT than changing the “beauty contest” results without legitimate proof. Otherwise, the whole process falls apart and it’s the beginning of the end.
It’s interesting to look back at the Republican efforts of the last 60-70 yrs to do away with the EC. Hell, even Trump wanted it gone.

If the state legislatures overturn the voters, we’re in deep trouble. That’s some socialism/AOC type garbage.


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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by Ibanez »

UNI88 wrote:
UNI88 wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:09 pm The infighting between AOC, the Squat, etc. and moderates like Spanberger and Veasey is going to be interesting.

Which party is most likely to have an ideological split?
AOC said she might quit politics, as some centrist Democrats blame progressives for House losses, NYT says
She also told The Times that she wants Democrats to stop looking at progressive causes as the enemy, and that if they don't, "they're just setting up their own obsolescence." On Twitter, she said ignoring progressive activists deters Black, Brown, and youth organizers who help deliver victories for Democrats.
I’ll donate to her retirement...


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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by Ibanez »

UNI88 wrote:
AZGrizFan wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:50 am A) what kind of deal?
B) I sure hope you’re wrong. If these Rep state legislatures do that and change votes, I think we will have just seen the death of the electoral college. They’d be better served investigating the perceived voter fraud and proving THAT than changing the “beauty contest” results without legitimate proof. Otherwise, the whole process falls apart and it’s the beginning of the end.
:nod: and preserving the electoral college is more important than Trump's reelection.
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Re: 2020 Election Predictions

Post by BDKJMU »

Ibanez wrote: Sun Nov 08, 2020 8:26 pm
BDKJMU wrote: Doesn't matter what I want. If Trump runs (and I think its better than 50/50 he will), he'll be the nominee.. :coffee:
Can prisioners run for office?



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You ignored my earlier post.
BDKJMU wrote: Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:58 pm https://www.foxnews.com/politics/trump- ... k-mulvaney
:coffee:

Health reasons would be the only thing that would stop him.

He won’t be stopped over indictments for Orange Man Bad by any liberal donk state AGs trying to make a name for themselves (you can indict a ham sandwich)..but he won‘t spend a day in jail.

And if he runs for the 2024 conk nomination, there‘s no doubt he will win it..
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