Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

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Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by JohnStOnge »

First some good news:

An estimated 33% of voters were non-White. That is the highest percentage ever. It was 29% in 2016 and 28% in 2012. Non whites voted for Biden by 71% to 26%. I can't be sure in comparing it to 2012 because 2012 has it as Clinton beating Trump among non whites by 74% to 37%. Obviously there is an error since 74 and 37 add up to 111. But let's say it should be 74% to 27%. That'd mean Trump did slightly better among non whites this time. But it's about in the same place. And the percent non white proportion among voters keeps increasing. The inevitable progression towards doomsday for Republicans continues.

The youngest voters, those 18 through 24, voted for Biden by 65% to 31%. Every age group less than 50 (18-24, 25-29, 30-39, 40-49) voted majority for Biden. More indication of an ominous future for the Republican Party.

Those who voted for the first time voted for Biden by 64% to 32%.

Whites with college degrees voted majority for Biden. Not by much. 51% to 48%. But that difference is significant due to the very large sample size (15,990). We can at least say that there is high confidence that a majority of Whites with college degrees voted for Biden.

Now some bad news:

Whites voted overall by 58% to 41% for Trump. White America is in serious need for some soul searching if such a majority is going to vote for an atrocity like that.

Of course the biggest problem was with relatively uneducated White voters. Whites without college degrees voted for Trump by 67% to 32%.

White Evangelical Christians continued to display hypocrisy as a group in voting for Trump by 76% to 24%. Not quite as bad as last time. But bad. White Evangelical Christians have demonstrated that they are an enemy to what this country is about and need to be defeated as a political influence. They don't need to be understood. They don't need to be humored. They don't need to be listened to. They need to be defeated and eliminated as a factor. They are the most dangerous and destructive factor in United States politics at this time.
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by AZGrizFan »

You transformation into Josef Mengele is officially complete.

Congrats.
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by BDKJMU »

JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:23 pm
The youngest voters, those 18 through 24, voted for Biden by 65% to 31%. Every age group less than 50 (18-24, 25-29, 30-39, 40-49) voted majority for Biden. More indication of an ominous future for the Republican Party.
Wrong- life expecancy is going up, not down. Older people vote more conservative than younger. Always have, always will.
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by Gil Dobie »

JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:23 pm
White Evangelical Christians continued to display hypocrisy as a group in voting for Trump by 76% to 24%. Not quite as bad as last time. But bad. White Evangelical Christians have demonstrated that they are an enemy to what this country is about and need to be defeated as a political influence. They don't need to be understood. They don't need to be humored. They don't need to be listened to. They need to be defeated and eliminated as a factor. They are the most dangerous and destructive factor in United States politics at this time.
Which of the same evil are they suppose to vote for.

Raciest #1 or Racist #2?
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by Winterborn »

AZGrizFan wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:28 pm You transformation into Josef Mengele is officially complete.

Congrats.
Reading the board's early posts he comes across as quite sane.

Now it is like he drank the kool-aid.
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by kalm »

JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:23 pm First some good news:

An estimated 33% of voters were non-White. That is the highest percentage ever. It was 29% in 2016 and 28% in 2012. Non whites voted for Biden by 71% to 26%. I can't be sure in comparing it to 2012 because 2012 has it as Clinton beating Trump among non whites by 74% to 37%. Obviously there is an error since 74 and 37 add up to 111. But let's say it should be 74% to 27%. That'd mean Trump did slightly better among non whites this time. But it's about in the same place. And the percent non white proportion among voters keeps increasing. The inevitable progression towards doomsday for Republicans continues.

The youngest voters, those 18 through 24, voted for Biden by 65% to 31%. Every age group less than 50 (18-24, 25-29, 30-39, 40-49) voted majority for Biden. More indication of an ominous future for the Republican Party.

Those who voted for the first time voted for Biden by 64% to 32%.

Whites with college degrees voted majority for Biden. Not by much. 51% to 48%. But that difference is significant due to the very large sample size (15,990). We can at least say that there is high confidence that a majority of Whites with college degrees voted for Biden.

Now some bad news:

Whites voted overall by 58% to 41% for Trump. White America is in serious need for some soul searching if such a majority is going to vote for an atrocity like that.

Of course the biggest problem was with relatively uneducated White voters. Whites without college degrees voted for Trump by 67% to 32%.

White Evangelical Christians continued to display hypocrisy as a group in voting for Trump by 76% to 24%. Not quite as bad as last time. But bad. White Evangelical Christians have demonstrated that they are an enemy to what this country is about and need to be defeated as a political influence. They don't need to be understood. They don't need to be humored. They don't need to be listened to. They need to be defeated and eliminated as a factor. They are the most dangerous and destructive factor in United States politics at this time.
How are exit polls taken these days? Dies the high number of mail in ballots skew them?
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by Winterborn »

kalm wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:01 pm
How are exit polls taken these days? Dies the high number of mail in ballots skew them?
*Does :kisswink:
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by Ibanez »

AZGrizFan wrote:You transformation into Josef Mengele is officially complete.

Congrats.
How’s he like a murderous doctor? I think you mean Goebbels


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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by AZGrizFan »

Ibanez wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:19 pm
AZGrizFan wrote:You transformation into Josef Mengele is officially complete.

Congrats.
How’s he like a murderous doctor? I think you mean Goebbels


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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by JohnStOnge »

BDKJMU wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 5:01 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:23 pm
The youngest voters, those 18 through 24, voted for Biden by 65% to 31%. Every age group less than 50 (18-24, 25-29, 30-39, 40-49) voted majority for Biden. More indication of an ominous future for the Republican Party.
Wrong- life expecancy is going up, not down. Older people vote more conservative than younger. Always have, always will.
You must've missed a post I made a couple of weeks or so ago. I looked it up. During all of the elections of the 1980s people in the 18 through 44 year old age group voted majority Republican. In two of the three elections people in the 18 through 29 year old age group voted Republican. The one exception was 1980, when it was a 44% to 44% tie (Anderson was in the race). In 1984 Reagan won that age group by 58% to 42%. In 1988 Bush won it by 53% to 47%.

The people from that age group in 1980 are now 58 through 69. Those that voted in 1984 are now 54 through 65. Those that voted in 1988 are now 50 through 61. This year, people 50 through 64 voted for the Republican by 52% to 47% and people 65 and older those 65 and older voted Republican by the same margin. What I'm illustrating to you is that those 1980s cohorts are voting now about the same way as they voted then. They are not all exactly the same people. But the age groups containing those 18 through 29 year olds in the 80s are voting now the same way those 18 and 29 year olds voted during the 1980s.

This cohort is different. 18 through 29 voted for the Democrat by 60% to 36%. If you don't think that spells trouble for the Republican Party in the future, you are whistling past the graveyard.
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by JohnStOnge »

kalm wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:01 pm How are exit polls taken these days? Dies the high number of mail in ballots skew them?
There is a discussion of adjustment to methodology at https://www.cnn.com/2020/11/02/politics ... index.html.

I see nothing in the results to suggest they didn't do a good job. For instance, I indicated that they say 18 through 29 year olds voted for Biden by 60% to 36%. That is consistent with what pre-election polling was saying. For example: The last Fox News poll prior to the election had voters under 35 favoring Biden by 60% to 34%. It also is consistent with what happened in the last election according to the more traditional exit polls. In that case, those in the 18 to 29 year old age group favored Clinton by 55% to 36% (minor party candidates were more of a factor).

Republicans are in trouble for the long term. They need to do something to change demographic effects that have been very firmly established since exit polling started and they also need to do something about the fact that the younger generations are clearly against them. They are not doing something. Instead, they cast their lot with getting ginned up enthusiasm from old, relatively uneducated White people by spouting a bunch of hateful rhetoric while rallying behind an absolute atrocity that most of the people in the country have never liked or approved of.
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by kalm »

Winterborn wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:03 pm
kalm wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:01 pm
How are exit polls taken these days? Dies the high number of mail in ballots skew them?
*Does :kisswink:
Listen...I just got a new iPhone motherfuckers! Kalm’s typos are a thug of the past!
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by SeattleGriz »

kalm wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:04 pm
Winterborn wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:03 pm

*Does :kisswink:
Listen...I just got a new iPhone motherfuckers! Kalm’s typos are a thug of the past!
:lol:

Using slave labor for your products. Just like Colon Kapernick.
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by Winterborn »

kalm wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 9:04 pm
Winterborn wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:03 pm

*Does :kisswink:
Listen...I just got a new iPhone motherfuckers! Kalm’s typos are a thug of the past!
The phone is only as good as the operator. :lol:
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by JohnStOnge »

AZGrizFan wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:35 pm
Ibanez wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 6:19 pm
How’s he like a murderous doctor? I think you mean Goebbels


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Pick your sick, twisted, person from history.
I didn't say White Evangelical Christians need to be exterminated physically. I said they need to be eliminated as a factor politically. They need to be clearly identified as the enemy with respect to trying to have a decent country that proceeds according to rational analysis and principle. I used to defend them. I posted on this board years ago that they are good people and the country would be OK if they have influence.

But I was wrong. They are a bunch of nut jobs. They treat a book of myths that were written in the range of 3500 to about 1900 years ago as though it is the absolute truth and they have now shown that they are willing to do something like vote for a complete moral atrocity like Trump in order to force that twisted outlook upon the society. Not all of them. But about 3/4 of them.

The first step in defeating an enemy like that is recognizing that they are the enemy. Every effort must be made to banish them to the fringe of society. If they want to live in their own little bizzaro world deluding themselves, fine. But leave the rest of us alone and don't foist something like Trump upon us.

The problem is illustrated once again in this year's exit polls. White Evangelical Christians, who were 28% of voters, voted for Trump by 76% to 24%. The other 72% of the population voted for Biden by 62% to 36%. Clearly, the country would be better off if White Evangelical Christians did not vote.
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by 89Hen »

Winterborn wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 5:44 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:28 pm You transformation into Josef Mengele is officially complete.

Congrats.
Reading the board's early posts he comes across as quite sane.

Now it is like he drank the kool-aid.
The only transformation that's close is Trip. He was normal as a younger lad.
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by JohnStOnge »

Oh. I would be remiss if I didn't mention that those with graduate degrees voted for Biden by a margin of 62% to 37%. I'm wondering what the hell is wrong with the 37%. But, clearly, being more educated meant being less likely to vote for Trump.
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by Gil Dobie »

JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:18 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 8:35 pm

Pick your sick, twisted, person from history.
I didn't say White Evangelical Christians need to be exterminated physically. I said they need to be eliminated as a factor politically. They need to be clearly identified as the enemy with respect to trying to have a decent country that proceeds according to rational analysis and principle. I used to defend them. I posted on this board years ago that they are good people and the country would be OK if they have influence.

But I was wrong. They are a bunch of nut jobs. They treat a book of myths that were written in the range of 3500 to about 1900 years ago as though it is the absolute truth and they have now shown that they are willing to do something like vote for a complete moral atrocity like Trump in order to force that twisted outlook upon the society. Not all of them. But about 3/4 of them.

The first step in defeating an enemy like that is recognizing that they are the enemy. Every effort must be made to banish them to the fringe of society. If they want to live in their own little bizzaro world deluding themselves, fine. But leave the rest of us alone and don't foist something like Trump upon us.

The problem is illustrated once again in this year's exit polls. White Evangelical Christians, who were 28% of voters, voted for Trump by 76% to 24%. The other 72% of the population voted for Biden by 62% to 36%. Clearly, the country would be better off if White Evangelical Christians did not vote.
So you are a Bigot.
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by Gil Dobie »

JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:27 pm Oh. I would be remiss if I didn't mention that those with graduate degrees voted for Biden by a margin of 62% to 37%. I'm wondering what the hell is wrong with the 37%. But, clearly, being more educated meant being less likely to vote for Trump.
Educated doesn't mean anything really. There are a lot of people out there that would have loved to go to school for half their life and collect degrees. Many could not afford to do that, and are more intelligent and more successful in life than many of these people with pieces of paper framed on their walls. Bill Gates Harvard drop out, for example.
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by JohnStOnge »

Gil Dobie wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:50 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:18 pm

I didn't say White Evangelical Christians need to be exterminated physically. I said they need to be eliminated as a factor politically. They need to be clearly identified as the enemy with respect to trying to have a decent country that proceeds according to rational analysis and principle. I used to defend them. I posted on this board years ago that they are good people and the country would be OK if they have influence.

But I was wrong. They are a bunch of nut jobs. They treat a book of myths that were written in the range of 3500 to about 1900 years ago as though it is the absolute truth and they have now shown that they are willing to do something like vote for a complete moral atrocity like Trump in order to force that twisted outlook upon the society. Not all of them. But about 3/4 of them.

The first step in defeating an enemy like that is recognizing that they are the enemy. Every effort must be made to banish them to the fringe of society. If they want to live in their own little bizzaro world deluding themselves, fine. But leave the rest of us alone and don't foist something like Trump upon us.

The problem is illustrated once again in this year's exit polls. White Evangelical Christians, who were 28% of voters, voted for Trump by 76% to 24%. The other 72% of the population voted for Biden by 62% to 36%. Clearly, the country would be better off if White Evangelical Christians did not vote.
So you are a Bigot.
I am not concerned with labels. I not think I meet the definition of bigot, which is:
a person who is obstinately or unreasonably attached to a belief, opinion, or faction, especially one who is prejudiced against or antagonistic toward a person or people on the basis of their membership of a particular group.
Yes, I am talking about a group. On the other hand, I have shown a willingness to change my opinion about things based on new information. Like deciding the Republican Party is bad after having supported it for decades. Or like changing my opinion about the White Evangelical Christian community that I defended in the past based on new information on what the White Evangelical Christian community has done in recent years, I will change my outlook based on the data.

And I don't see my current outlook on White Evangelical Christians as being based just on being members of a group. I see it as based on what the overwhelming majority of that group has done.

It's not all. My wife is a White Evangelical Christian. My children are White Evangelical Christians. But they do not support Trump. And they withdrew their support for the Republican Party when the Republican Party nominated him.

Unfortunately, they are in the minority among that definable group. All I am saying is that the definable group is having a negative impact on the direction of this country. It needs to be recognized as a negative factor and addressed as such.
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by UNI88 »

JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 4:04 pm
Gil Dobie wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:50 pm

So you are a Bigot.
I am not concerned with labels. I not think I meet the definition of bigot, which is:
a person who is obstinately or unreasonably attached to a belief, opinion, or faction, especially one who is prejudiced against or antagonistic toward a person or people on the basis of their membership of a particular group.
Yes, I am talking about a group. On the other hand, I have shown a willingness to change my opinion about things based on new information. Like deciding the Republican Party is bad after having supported it for decades. Or like changing my opinion about the White Evangelical Christian community that I defended in the past based on new information on what the White Evangelical Christian community has done in recent years, I will change my outlook based on the data.

And I don't see my current outlook on White Evangelical Christians as being based just on being members of a group. I see it as based on what the overwhelming majority of that group has done.

They are the enemy. There is nothing wrong with recognizing them as such.
How is it right to marginalize someone that you think less of? Your criticisms of evangelical Christians are not without merit but how is marginalizing them any different than when white males marginalized women or people of color? White males were just as certain of their superiority as you are that evangelical Christians are evil.
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by Gil Dobie »

JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 4:04 pm
Gil Dobie wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:50 pm

So you are a Bigot.
I am not concerned with labels. I not think I meet the definition of bigot, which is:
a person who is obstinately or unreasonably attached to a belief, opinion, or faction, especially one who is prejudiced against or antagonistic toward a person or people on the basis of their membership of a particular group.
Yes, I am talking about a group. On the other hand, I have shown a willingness to change my opinion about things based on new information. Like deciding the Republican Party is bad after having supported it for decades. Or like changing my opinion about the White Evangelical Christian community that I defended in the past based on new information on what the White Evangelical Christian community has done in recent years, I will change my outlook based on the data.

And I don't see my current outlook on White Evangelical Christians as being based just on being members of a group. I see it as based on what the overwhelming majority of that group has done.

It's not all. My wife is a White Evangelical Christian. My children are White Evangelical Christians. But they do not support Trump. And they withdrew their support for the Republican Party when the Republican Party nominated him.

Unfortunately, they are in the minority among that definable group. All I am saying is that the definable group is having a negative impact on the direction of this country. It needs to be recognized as a negative factor and addressed as such.
You are in the same evil category as Trump.
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by BDKJMU »

JohnStOnge wrote: Wed Nov 11, 2020 4:23 pm First some good news:

An estimated 33% of voters were non-White. That is the highest percentage ever. It was 29% in 2016 and 28% in 2012. Non whites voted for Biden by 71% to 26%. I can't be sure in comparing it to 2012 because 2012 has it as Clinton beating Trump among non whites by 74% to 37%. Obviously there is an error since 74 and 37 add up to 111. But let's say it should be 74% to 27%. That'd mean Trump did slightly better among non whites this time. But it's about in the same place. And the percent non white proportion among voters keeps increasing. The inevitable progression towards doomsday for Republicans continues.

The youngest voters, those 18 through 24, voted for Biden by 65% to 31%. Every age group less than 50 (18-24, 25-29, 30-39, 40-49) voted majority for Biden. More indication of an ominous future for the Republican Party.

Those who voted for the first time voted for Biden by 64% to 32%.

Whites with college degrees voted majority for Biden. Not by much. 51% to 48%. But that difference is significant due to the very large sample size (15,990). We can at least say that there is high confidence that a majority of Whites with college degrees voted for Biden.

Now some bad news:

Whites voted overall by 58% to 41% for Trump. White America is in serious need for some soul searching if such a majority is going to vote for an atrocity like that.

Of course the biggest problem was with relatively uneducated White voters. Whites without college degrees voted for Trump by 67% to 32%.

White Evangelical Christians continued to display hypocrisy as a group in voting for Trump by 76% to 24%. Not quite as bad as last time. But bad. White Evangelical Christians have demonstrated that they are an enemy to what this country is about and need to be defeated as a political influence. They don't need to be understood. They don't need to be humored. They don't need to be listened to. They need to be defeated and eliminated as a factor. They are the most dangerous and destructive factor in United States politics at this time.
You're wasting your time..even liberal Vox acknowledges exit polls are a joke..

The problem with exit poll takes, explained
You know how the regular polls were wrong? Exit polls are much worse.
https://www.vox.com/21552679/exit-poll-accuracy
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JohnStOnge
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by JohnStOnge »

Gil Dobie wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 4:02 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 3:27 pm Oh. I would be remiss if I didn't mention that those with graduate degrees voted for Biden by a margin of 62% to 37%. I'm wondering what the hell is wrong with the 37%. But, clearly, being more educated meant being less likely to vote for Trump.
Educated doesn't mean anything really. There are a lot of people out there that would have loved to go to school for half their life and collect degrees. Many could not afford to do that, and are more intelligent and more successful in life than many of these people with pieces of paper framed on their walls. Bill Gates Harvard drop out, for example.
Yes I know it is not a perfect predictor. But we both know that there is a significant correlation between IQ and educational attainment. If you were to randomly select 1000 people from each of the groups Didn't didn't finish high school, high school grad, some college, bachelors degree, and post grad degree you would see a perfect correlation such that the mean IQ got higher at each step.

http://www.assessmentpsychology.com/iq.htm

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JohnStOnge
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Re: Good and Bad news from Exit Polling

Post by JohnStOnge »

Gil Dobie wrote: Thu Nov 12, 2020 4:02 pm

Educated doesn't mean anything really. There are a lot of people out there that would have loved to go to school for half their life and collect degrees. Many could not afford to do that, and are more intelligent and more successful in life than many of these people with pieces of paper framed on their walls. Bill Gates Harvard drop out, for example.
Yes I know it is not a perfect predictor. But we both know that there is a significant correlation between IQ and educational attainment. If you were to randomly select 1000 people from each of the groups Didn't didn't finish high school, high school grad, some college, bachelors degree, and post grad degree you would see a perfect correlation such that the mean IQ got higher at each step.

http://www.assessmentpsychology.com/iq.htm

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When you look at those educational attainment groups in exit polls you would do well to bet that the "Advanced Degree" group has the highest mean IQ among them. You would also do well to bet that it has the highest mean IQ of ANY group defined in all of the exit poll breakdowns. And that group voted overwhelmingly for Biden.
Last edited by JohnStOnge on Thu Nov 12, 2020 5:39 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Well, I believe that I must tell the truth
And say things as they really are
But if I told the truth and nothing but the truth
Could I ever be a star?

Deep Purple: No One Came
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