RCP Average Performance Update

[JohnStOnge]

I updated my spreadsheet on how the Real Clear Politics (RCP) Average of polling in national elections (House and President) has compared to actual results for as far back as I could find comparisons (2002 House).

The simple average error is 2.1 percentage points. The bias is towards the Democrats, but it is small (-0.7). The side favored by the polling average got more votes in 12 of 14 cases where one side had an advantage (in the 2004 House elections, the RCP average had it as a tie). In the two cases where that didn't happen, 2012 and 2016, the advantage for the "favored side" was small (0.2 and 0.6 percentage points).

The worst performance was associated with this year's House elections. The RCP average was 4.5 percentage points off on that one.

[mainejeff]

2016

Trump: E - 304, P - 62,984,828
Clinton: E - 227, P - 65,853,514

2020

Trump: E - 232, P - 74,196,153
Biden: E - 306, P - 81,255,933

So WTF is the problem here? Does Trump and his band of snowflakes not understand a LOSS?

Elections have consequences, MOFOs.

[JohnStOnge]

2016

Trump: E - 304, P - 62,984,828
Clinton: E - 227, P - 65,853,514

2020

Trump: E - 232, P - 74,196,153
Biden: E - 306, P - 81,255,933

So WTF is the problem here? Does Trump and his band of snowflakes not understand a LOSS?

Elections have consequences, MOFOs.

I think Trump and some others on the Republican side have succeeded in convincing 10s of millions of Republicans that there was massive voter fraud. I shake my head at that because anybody with an ounce of grey matter SHOULD know that such was not the case and also know that Trump functions by lying all the time.

The really bad aspect of the situation is that we have Trump trying to corrupt our system and we've got a lot of Republican leaders and high profile supporters supporting him in that effort.

[Gil Dobie]

2016

Trump: E - 304, P - 62,984,828
Clinton: E - 227, P - 65,853,514

2020

Trump: E - 232, P - 74,196,153
Biden: E - 306, P - 81,255,933

So WTF is the problem here? Does Trump and his band of snowflakes not understand a LOSS?

Elections have consequences, MOFOs.

I think Trump and some others on the Republican side have succeeded in convincing 10s of millions of Republicans that there was massive voter fraud. I shake my head at that because anybody with an ounce of grey matter SHOULD know that such was not the case and also know that Trump functions by lying all the time.

The really bad aspect of the situation is that we have Trump trying to corrupt our system and we've got a lot of Republican leaders and high profile supporters supporting him in that effort.

Time to let go Jon. Trump lost and Biden won. Be a good sport and be a good winner.

[JohnStOnge]

I think Trump and some others on the Republican side have succeeded in convincing 10s of millions of Republicans that there was massive voter fraud. I shake my head at that because anybody with an ounce of grey matter SHOULD know that such was not the case and also know that Trump functions by lying all the time.

The really bad aspect of the situation is that we have Trump trying to corrupt our system and we've got a lot of Republican leaders and high profile supporters supporting him in that effort.

Time to let go Jon. Trump lost and Biden won. Be a good sport and be a good winner.

It is not over. Yes, I am optimistic. But we are in an historic time. We have a President who lost an election engaged in trying to subvert the representative government process in order to stay in power when The People voted against him and we have an awful lot of members of a major political party, his party, refusing to oppose what he is doing or even in some cases supporting it. It is a very bad situation.

Hopefully justice will be done and Biden will take office. But what has happened since Biden won in early November has revealed serious vulnerabilities in our system either way.

Also, I am not going to let what the Republican Party has been doing over the past five years or so go. They nominated an obviously dishonest and corrupt person. Then they protected him when the Mueller investigation showed he should have been impeached and removed from office. Then they refused to remove him from office when he was impeached for his corrupt actions with respect to the Ukraine. Now this. It is a totally corrupt Party and every effort should be made to get rid of it.

[AZGrizFan]

I updated my spreadsheet on how the Real Clear Politics (RCP) Average of polling in national elections (House and President) has compared to actual results for as far back as I could find comparisons (2002 House).

The simple average error is 2.1 percentage points. The bias is towards the Democrats, but it is small (-0.7). The side favored by the polling average got more votes in 12 of 14 cases where one side had an advantage (in the 2004 House elections, the RCP average had it as a tie). In the two cases where that didn't happen, 2012 and 2016, the advantage for the "favored side" was small (0.2 and 0.6 percentage points).

The worst performance was associated with this year's House elections. The RCP average was 4.5 percentage points off on that one.

I stopped reading right there,....

[AZGrizFan]

Time to let go Jon. Trump lost and Biden won. Be a good sport and be a good winner.

It is not over. Yes, I am optimistic. But we are in an historic time. We have a President who lost an election engaged in trying to subvert the representative government process in order to stay in power when The People voted against him and we have an awful lot of members of a major political party, his party, refusing to oppose what he is doing or even in some cases supporting it. It is a very bad situation.

Hopefully justice will be done and Biden will take office. But what has happened since Biden won in early November has revealed serious vulnerabilities in our system either way.

Also, I am not going to let what the Republican Party has been doing over the past five years or so go. They nominated an obviously dishonest and corrupt person. Then they protected him when the Mueller investigation showed he should have been impeached and removed from office. Then they refused to remove him from office when he was impeached for his corrupt actions with respect to the Ukraine. Now this. It is a totally corrupt Party and every effort should be made to get rid of it.

It is comical that ANYONE can utter the statement “we have a president who lost an election engaged in trying to subvert the....process” after what Hillary and Obama did in ‘16. Every YOU aren’t THAT stupid and blind, John.

[LeadBolt]

There are currently 2 House elections won by Republicans where the Democrats are trying to overturn the results. Should they move along as well, or is that somehow different?


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[LeadBolt]

Was Gore still contesting results at this point in 2000? Double standard much?


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[Ibanez]

Was Gore still contesting results at this point in 2000? Double standard much?


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1) Yes he was
2) Just because someone does something stupid doesn't mean you have to do it. The entire " Well, Republicans/Democrats did it first" argument is weak. Be an adult. Be a leader and do it better than the guy before you.

Otherwise, STFU about it.

[Ibanez]

We should treat JSO posts like we should treat Trump starting at 12:01pm on 1/20/2021 - complete media blackout.

[UNI88]

We should treat JSO posts like we should treat Trump starting at 12:01pm on 1/20/2021 - complete media blackout.

JSo just needs to be fivered.

[89Hen]

It is not over.

Jeff, I think we found your problem. It's not republicans, it's JSO.

[mainejeff]

It is not over. Yes, I am optimistic. But we are in an historic time. We have a President who lost an election engaged in trying to subvert the representative government process in order to stay in power when The People voted against him and we have an awful lot of members of a major political party, his party, refusing to oppose what he is doing or even in some cases supporting it. It is a very bad situation.

Hopefully justice will be done and Biden will take office. But what has happened since Biden won in early November has revealed serious vulnerabilities in our system either way.

Also, I am not going to let what the Republican Party has been doing over the past five years or so go. They nominated an obviously dishonest and corrupt person. Then they protected him when the Mueller investigation showed he should have been impeached and removed from office. Then they refused to remove him from office when he was impeached for his corrupt actions with respect to the Ukraine. Now this. It is a totally corrupt Party and every effort should be made to get rid of it.

It is comical that ANYONE can utter the statement “we have a president who lost an election engaged in trying to subvert the....process” after what Hillary and Obama did in ‘16. Every YOU aren’t THAT stupid and blind, John.

Are you elfin kidding me? You are supporting a dictator that wants to seize power after an election that he lost fair & square. Can you imagine yourself if this was the opposite situation with a Dem trying to seize power? You are a complete JOKE....and delusional.

[mainejeff]

Was Gore still contesting results at this point in 2000? Double standard much?


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Gore was not an incumbent trying to seize power after a loss. Florida's election results were very questionable in many facets in 2000.....and it was THE state that decided the election.

[Ibanez]

I updated my spreadsheet on how the Real Clear Politics (RCP) Average of polling in national elections (House and President) has compared to actual results for as far back as I could find comparisons (2002 House).

The simple average error is 2.1 percentage points. The bias is towards the Democrats, but it is small (-0.7). The side favored by the polling average got more votes in 12 of 14 cases where one side had an advantage (in the 2004 House elections, the RCP average had it as a tie). In the two cases where that didn't happen, 2012 and 2016, the advantage for the "favored side" was small (0.2 and 0.6 percentage points).

The worst performance was associated with this year's House elections. The RCP average was 4.5 percentage points off on that one.

[mainejeff]

Was Gore still contesting results at this point in 2000? Double standard much?


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1) Yes he was
2) Just because someone does something stupid doesn't mean you have to do it. The entire " Well, Republicans/Democrats did it first" argument is weak. Be an adult. Be a leader and do it better than the guy before you.

Otherwise, STFU about it.

Situations are different as well. We are talking THE state that determined the election.....hanging chads....etc, etc.

https://www.npr.org/2018/11/12/66681285 ... n-haunting

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2000_Unit ... in_Florida

Bush - 2,912,790
Gore - 2,912,253

You MOFOs are REALLY trying to compare the 2000 situation with today's situation??? Jeezus Christ.

[mainejeff]

I updated my spreadsheet on how the Real Clear Politics (RCP) Average of polling in national elections (House and President) has compared to actual results for as far back as I could find comparisons (2002 House).

The simple average error is 2.1 percentage points. The bias is towards the Democrats, but it is small (-0.7). The side favored by the polling average got more votes in 12 of 14 cases where one side had an advantage (in the 2004 House elections, the RCP average had it as a tie). In the two cases where that didn't happen, 2012 and 2016, the advantage for the "favored side" was small (0.2 and 0.6 percentage points).

The worst performance was associated with this year's House elections. The RCP average was 4.5 percentage points off on that one.

When Trump does....we will. When Republican leadership stops empowering this MOFO....we will let it go.

[AZGrizFan]

When Trump does....we will. When Republican leadership stops empowering this MOFO....we will let it go.