kalm wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 6:45 pm
CID1990 wrote: ↑Wed Sep 29, 2021 5:42 pm
The entire idea of going electric is completely an urban construct
Where are the electric tractors? Combines?
Food production is a strategic industry and we are not even thinking about it.
This country needs to be prepared to go back to 1845 and a small portion is, but not enough.
Treep and the rest of the Gen Y retards will die at the hands of BLM terrorists when the lights go out, and the only people left after the starvation event will be us rednecks out in the country who know how to grow shit Paleo-style
I’m prepared, and I’ve already given my closest trusted compatriots the grid coordinates. And probably China will hit us from above with missiles and drones copied from us with the help of the Clinton admin
But we will be free to the end
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I’d be curious to see WB’s take on this. I’m guessing there are already some electric options for AG. There already is for golf and turf. I also know someone is coming out with an electric outboard for boats…. So I’m good.
Is your fishing/green thumb good enough to feed your family for a winter or day to day basis? And how are you going to charge your outboard when the grid is crashing on a daily basis?
And CID left off the CE Industry (Construction Equipment) which is just as big as the AG (Agriculture) industry.
CAT has diesel electric "hybrids" on their large mining equipment for years. Their dozer line is a good fit for it as a dozer needs max torque at all speeds depending on the jobsites (haul trucks are another item). But that is on large mining equipment that a $100k here and there is pretty much peanuts. (nice explanation below)
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https://www.equipmentworld.com/equipmen ... -explained)
CNH, Volovo, Bobcat, JD, and CAT all have various fully electric compact construction equipment or prototype tractors they have shown off at the various farm shows. But there is several very big problems with them. Cost and Power Density. Construction equipment has as an advantage over AG equipment in that one can use the downward motion of many tasks (excavator for example) to capture some of the energy in doing the opposite motion. AG equipment has none of that advantage as they are pure mobile power units (very high power density usage cases). One other bit of background information is that equipment buyers expect the equipment to run a full 10 hour day at working conditions.
Compact construction equipment (defined mostly as equipment less than 10k #'s) has the most work done from a innovation standpoint, and the current battery tech can "barely" support their usage cases. Heat rejection is a very large problem and so is run time. Even with hot swapping (switching entire batteries out for new ones), run time is mostly around 8 hours (less than the 10 that is the industry norm). Power density is a large issue in the way both AG and CE machines run, they use engines that are doing much more work than a vehicle (many kw's of energy. Ex: STX 550 Quadtrac (common sized 4wd AG tractor) has a engine rated at 324kW). A typical construction site or farming operation will probably use as much power as a several neighborhoods in a city or a small rural town (I haven't crunched the numbers but I think it is a good SWAG). And that is just the theoretical power consumption, never mind that for the larger machines, your machine would need to tow a battery pack the size of the machine or be hooked to grid power just be able to run of which neither are practical nor possible with how these machines function.
The cost is also another factor and it is entirely due to the battery costs. Those pieces of equipment on the CE side (there is none available for purchase or rent on the AG side to my knowledge) are about double the cost of its corresponding ICE counterpart. When your average skidsteer (60hp) costs about $60k, and the same size electric counterpart that with out a second batter will only last 6-7 hours (with a 1 hour lunch charge) is at least $120k, it is no small investment for a company to purchase. Too my knowledge only a few models of under 75ph skidsteers or excavators have hit the market.
The people that are purchasing them are people bidding on indoor demo jobs where noise is a factor, Amazon/Facebook/etc whose bid process requires an offset of carbon credits (in some instances contractors have told me the machines do not even have to be working, they just want them parked on the site so they can use an ICE equipment to actually do the job) and the extra cost of the job is passed on to the consumers. Also some cites in the EU have banned ICE equipment in certain sectors of the city and it is either equipment that has hot swapping capabilities or a shovel. Right now it is an extremely niche market.
To get away (outside of a niche market) from ICE equipment, power density storage has to increase and lithium ion in any form now or on the near horizon is not going to do it. A completely different type of storage media is going to be needed (capacitors, etc.). But that also means the generation capacity will have to
MASSIVELY increase and so will the electrical grid capacity. We aren't even within spitting distance right now. Cost also has to be comparable to a traditionally powered machine.
All the above also applies to over the highway trucking. There are a few companies that have claimed they can do it, but I will believe it when I see it.
California is at the bleeding edge of mandating electric powered equipment and in killing their power generation capabilities. CARB is looking at mandating battery power for all garden equipment sized (about 25-30hp and under) by 2030. This can be done, but you will pay double (or more) for a mower, rest of the garden line up (trimmers, blowers, etc) about 15-25% more. They have floated the same for CE and AG equipment but so far CARB is waiting to see right now (but my bet is within 2-3 years they will try it). As for charging, that aspect is up in the air for now.
Personally I can't wait too see what happens when CARB runs afoul of the laws of physics and it doesn't conform to their utopian ideals. A coworker was at a CARB meeting, before COVID, and it was almost comical the lack of understanding and amount of delusion that was shown by the regulators. One regulator stated, in the meeting, that business are just hiding the tech to implement their demands due to them not wanting to change and because they are greedy for profits. And this is a meeting between industry and the state, and this individual said it right in front of everybody. As a business, what are you to do, when nothing you say or show is taken into account and it basically delves into do as we say or don't do business here.
BTW: If I had spare money, I would be buying land on the Nevada/California border as equipment and car dealerships will be moving there as in the future you will not be able to purchase "banned" equipment in the state, but there is nothing stopping you from bringing it into the state to do the work (at least for now). And CID said it right in my highlighted portion of his post.