Some final Trump and Obama economy numbers

[JohnStOnge]

Ok. You can think they show a big change in the economy or you can think they don't. But here are numbers on four basic areas. The areas are Real GDP growth (GDP adjusted for inflation and picked because that's the recommended measure per the page at https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543), job growth, inflation adjusted wage growth, and Dow Jones Industrial Average growth.

I used Trump's first three years vs. Obama's last three years for job growth and GDP growth because it looks like those took a dive due to COVID during Trump's fourth year. I used Trump's four years vs. Obama's four year second term for the others because it looks like those were largely unaffected by COVID.

Real GDP

See https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543

Real GDP increased by 7.7% during Trump's first three years after increasing by 7.5% during Obama's last three years.

Job Growth

See https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000 ... w=net_1mth

The economy added 6.5 million jobs during Trump's first three years after adding 8.0 million jobs during Obama's last three years.

Wage Growth

https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost and https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

Hourly wages increased by 6.9% in inflation adjusted terms during Trump's four years after increasing by 4.0% during Obama's second four year term.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

See https://www.mdleasing.com/djia-close.htm

The value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 54.9% during Trump's four years after increasing by 50.8% during Obama's second four year term.

[AZGrizFan]

Now do unemployment, AA unemployment, Hispanic unemployment, % of work force employed, length of economic expansion,

Here’s a hint:

A) lowest in 50 years
B) lowest EVER
C) lowest EVER
D) highest EVER
E) longest EVER

Again, so easy even a caveman could do it. Well, except any president. Ever.

[JohnStOnge]

Now do unemployment, AA unemployment, Hispanic unemployment, % of work force employed, length of economic expansion,

Here’s a hint:

A) lowest in 50 years
B) lowest EVER
C) lowest EVER
D) highest EVER
E) longest EVER

Again, so easy even a caveman could do it. Well, except any president. Ever.

I thought about doing unemployment rate but that is to some extent a function of job creation. I think the fair way to do it is to look at how much the unemployment rate declined during Trump's first three years before COVID vs. how much it declined during the last three years under Obama. The overall unemployment rate declined by 1.1 percentage points during Trump's first three years after declining by 2.0 percentage points during Obama's last three years. The Black unemployment rate declined by 1.8 percentage points during Trump's first three years after declining by 3.9 percentage points during Obama's last three years. The Black unemployment rate declined by 1.5 percentage points under Trump after declining by 2.5 percentage points during Obama's last three years.

That's as fair a way to compare as there is. It's understood that, since the unemployment rate had already declined from 10 percent to 4.7 percent while Obama was President there was not a lot of room for it to go much lower by the time Trump took office. For the rate to decrease during Trump's first three years by as much as it did during Obama's last three it would have had to get to 2.7 percent and that is probably unlikely. At the same time, it's fair to say that the overwhelming preponderance of the decline in unemployment rate overall, among Blacks, and among Hispanics occurred during 2010 through 2016 while Obama was in office.

I don't know about "comparing" length of economic recovery because Obama took over when the economy was in decline. So he couldn't really continue a recovery since it started during his term. All one can say is that we had an economic recovery that proceeded for 7.5 years while Obama was President then continued for another 3.1 years while Trump was President before ending in February 2020.

[AZGrizFan]

Now do unemployment, AA unemployment, Hispanic unemployment, % of work force employed, length of economic expansion,

Here’s a hint:

A) lowest in 50 years
B) lowest EVER
C) lowest EVER
D) highest EVER
E) longest EVER

Again, so easy even a caveman could do it. Well, except any president. Ever.

I thought about doing unemployment rate but that is to some extent a function of job creation. I think the fair way to do it is to look at how much the unemployment rate declined during Trump's first three years before COVID vs. how much it declined during the last three years under Obama. The overall unemployment rate declined by 1.1 percentage points during Trump's first three years after declining by 2.0 percentage points during Obama's last three years. The Black unemployment rate declined by 1.8 percentage points during Trump's first three years after declining by 3.9 percentage points during Obama's last three years. The Black unemployment rate declined by 1.5 percentage points under Trump after declining by 2.5 percentage points during Obama's last three years.

That's as fair a way to compare as there is. It's understood that, since the unemployment rate had already declined from 10 percent to 4.7 percent while Obama was President there was not a lot of room for it to go much lower by the time Trump took office. For the rate to decrease during Trump's first three years by as much as it did during Obama's last three it would have had to get to 2.7 percent and that is probably unlikely. At the same time, it's fair to say that the overwhelming preponderance of the decline in unemployment rate overall, among Blacks, and among Hispanics occurred during 2010 through 2016 while Obama was in office.

I don't know about "comparing" length of economic recovery because Obama took over when the economy was in decline. So he couldn't really continue a recovery since it started during his term. All one can say is that we had an economic recovery that proceeded for 7.5 years while Obama was President then continued for another 3.1 years while Trump was President before ending in February 2020.

hardly fair. Obama was starting from much higher #’s across the board. Point being, it got lower than it has in 50+ years. Minority unemployment got lower than it has—-EVER. Again, if THAT was so easy, why has NO president ever been able to accomplish it? How is it that it didn’t happen until the orange buffoon became president? Serendipity? Blind luck? Coincidence? Because you’ve NEVER given him any credit for implementing policies that created those numbers....in fact, in some cases he was his own worst enemy (trade war with China, pissing off Mexico, etc)....yet there we were, humming along in never-before-seen economic territory until the fake virus came along and derailed everything juuuuuust in time for election season....

[UNI88]

Now do unemployment, AA unemployment, Hispanic unemployment, % of work force employed, length of economic expansion,

Here’s a hint:

A) lowest in 50 years
B) lowest EVER
C) lowest EVER
D) highest EVER
E) longest EVER

Again, so easy even a caveman could do it. Well, except any president. Ever.

I thought about doing unemployment rate but that is to some extent a function of job creation. I think the fair way to do it is to only consider it in a way that makes Trump look bad.

FYP

[JohnStOnge]

I had not said anything bad about Trump. I just gave the number. I even said that the fact that unemployment was low to begin with didn't give much room to lower it further.

But I do still wonder how you guys can say he deserves all the credit for something like the low unemployment rate for Blacks when the overall decline was from a high of 16.8 percent to a low of 5.2 percent and the situation is one in which it declined by 8.8 percentage points under Obama then by another 2.8 percentage points under Trump.

I don't understand why you apparently think Trump's task was harder. Obama took over during a historic economic downturn when unemployment was rising. Things turned around under Obama and, in terms of unemployment, got most of the way to where they got to in terms of historic lows while he was President. Trump took over when unemployment was in decline, the economy was growing at a similar rate as it grew during his first three years, the stock market had grown over the previous four years by close to as much as it ended up growing during Trump's four year term, job growth was humming along at a little over 200,000 jobs being added per month, etc.

I just don't get why you guys honestly think he was some kind of miracle worker. You seem to think taking over when things are going pretty well and keeping them going pretty much as they were is more difficult than taking over when things are going to hell and turning them around.

[Gil Dobie]

Obama presided over the economy Bush created, Trump presided over the economy Obama created, Biden is presiding over the economy Trump created. Did I get that right?

[AZGrizFan]

I had not said anything bad about Trump. I just gave the number. I even said that the fact that unemployment was low to begin with didn't give much room to lower it further.

But I do still wonder how you guys can say he deserves all the credit for something like the low unemployment rate for Blacks when the overall decline was from a high of 16.8 percent to a low of 5.2 percent and the situation is one in which it declined by 8.8 percentage points under Obama then by another 2.8 percentage points under Trump.

I don't understand why you apparently think Trump's task was harder. Obama took over during a historic economic downturn when unemployment was rising. Things turned around under Obama and, in terms of unemployment, got most of the way to where they got to in terms of historic lows while he was President. Trump took over when unemployment was in decline, the economy was growing at a similar rate as it grew during his first three years, the stock market had grown over the previous four years by close to as much as it ended up growing during Trump's four year term, job growth was humming along at a little over 200,000 jobs being added per month, etc.

I just don't get why you guys honestly think he was some kind of miracle worker. You seem to think taking over when things are going pretty well and keeping them going pretty much as they were is more difficult than taking over when things are going to hell and turning them around.

You seriously do NOT see how Trump’s situation was harder? Honestly? How was it not harder to take the numbers literally lower than they’ve EVER been?

And nobody is saying he was a miracle worker....but again, if what he did was so fucking easy, how has NO OTHER PRESIDENT been able to accomplish it? EVER?

[BDKJMU]

Ok. You can think they show a big change in the economy or you can think they don't. But here are numbers on four basic areas. The areas are Real GDP growth (GDP adjusted for inflation and picked because that's the recommended measure per the page at https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543), job growth, inflation adjusted wage growth, and Dow Jones Industrial Average growth.

I used Trump's first three years vs. Obama's last three years for job growth and GDP growth because it looks like those took a dive due to COVID during Trump's fourth year. I used Trump's four years vs. Obama's four year second term for the others because it looks like those were largely unaffected by COVID.

Real GDP

See https://www.thebalance.com/us-gdp-by-year-3305543

Real GDP increased by 7.7% during Trump's first three years after increasing by 7.5% during Obama's last three years.

Job Growth

See https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000 ... w=net_1mth

The economy added 6.5 million jobs during Trump's first three years after adding 8.0 million jobs during Obama's last three years.

Wage Growth

https://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/surveymost and https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm

Hourly wages increased by 6.9% in inflation adjusted terms during Trump's four years after increasing by 4.0% during Obama's second four year term.

Dow Jones Industrial Average

See https://www.mdleasing.com/djia-close.htm

The value of the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased by 54.9% during Trump's four years after increasing by 50.8% during Obama's second four year term.

I thought about doing unemployment rate but that is to some extent a function of job creation. I think the fair way to do it is to look at how much the unemployment rate declined during Trump's first three years before COVID vs. how much it declined during the last three years under Obama. The overall unemployment rate declined by 1.1 percentage points during Trump's first three years after declining by 2.0 percentage points during Obama's last three years. The Black unemployment rate declined by 1.8 percentage points during Trump's first three years after declining by 3.9 percentage points during Obama's last three years. The Black unemployment rate declined by 1.5 percentage points under Trump after declining by 2.5 percentage points during Obama's last three years.

That's as fair a way to compare as there is. It's understood that, since the unemployment rate had already declined from 10 percent to 4.7 percent while Obama was President there was not a lot of room for it to go much lower by the time Trump took office. For the rate to decrease during Trump's first three years by as much as it did during Obama's last three it would have had to get to 2.7 percent and that is probably unlikely. At the same time, it's fair to say that the overwhelming preponderance of the decline in unemployment rate overall, among Blacks, and among Hispanics occurred during 2010 through 2016 while Obama was in office.

I don't know about "comparing" length of economic recovery because Obama took over when the economy was in decline. So he couldn't really continue a recovery since it started during his term. All one can say is that we had an economic recovery that proceeded for 7.5 years while Obama was President then continued for another 3.1 years while Trump was President before ending in February 2020.

I had not said anything bad about Trump. I just gave the number. I even said that the fact that unemployment was low to begin with didn't give much room to lower it further.

But I do still wonder how you guys can say he deserves all the credit for something like the low unemployment rate for Blacks when the overall decline was from a high of 16.8 percent to a low of 5.2 percent and the situation is one in which it declined by 8.8 percentage points under Obama then by another 2.8 percentage points under Trump.

I don't understand why you apparently think Trump's task was harder. Obama took over during a historic economic downturn when unemployment was rising. Things turned around under Obama and, in terms of unemployment, got most of the way to where they got to in terms of historic lows while he was President. Trump took over when unemployment was in decline, the economy was growing at a similar rate as it grew during his first three years, the stock market had grown over the previous four years by close to as much as it ended up growing during Trump's four year term, job growth was humming along at a little over 200,000 jobs being added per month, etc.

I just don't get why you guys honestly think he was some kind of miracle worker. You seem to think taking over when things are going pretty well and keeping them going pretty much as they were is more difficult than taking over when things are going to hell and turning them around.

[SDHornet]

JSO still triggered by Orange Man.

BTW, you disavow that pedo organization Lincoln Project yet?

[89Hen]

I had not said anything bad about Trump.

[UNI88]

Caption This ...

Look, the Orange Man can go through a flipbook backwards. He'll be reading Dr. Seuss in no time.

[JohnStOnge]

You seriously do NOT see how Trump’s situation was harder? Honestly? How was it not harder to take the numbers literally lower than they’ve EVER been?

And nobody is saying he was a miracle worker....but again, if what he did was so fucking easy, how has NO OTHER PRESIDENT been able to accomplish it? EVER?

I'll try this again using graphics I've used before. The test, to me, is looking at economic data and asking yourself, honestly, if and when the data suggest that something happened to change the situation. In that regard I look at the two graphs below. The first shows Black unemployment rate 2008 through 2019 and the second shows number of jobs added by month for the same period. In each graph the triangle pointer indicates the point at which Trump took office.

If the pointer were not there and somebody was just looking at those data looking for indications that something changed about the situation, there is NO way somebody would pick out the point at which Trump took office as a point at which something changed. In fact, the only thing that looks like it even MIGHT indicate a change is that the jobs-added line drops below zero for February 2019; indicating that the economy lost jobs for the first time since September 2010.

There was an extended period in which jobs were consistently added and the unemployment rate declined. There is no indication at all that anything stalled or changed so that either trend changed around the beginning of 2017. It's just not there. There's nothing in the data to suggest that one should've expected the unemployment rate to stop declining after 2016.

Yes, the unemployment rate ended up bottoming out while Trump was in office. But one can't legitimately ignore the context with respect to what was happening with that trend before he took office anymore than one can legitimately ignore the fact that we had a COVID-19 pandemic during 2020 when noting that the unemployment rate overall and the Black unemployment rate were higher when he left office than when he took office while the economy had about 2.8 million fewer jobs when he left office than it had when he started.

BLACK UNEMPLOYMENT RATE 2008 - 2019


US JOBS ADDED PER MONTH 2008 - 2019

[AZGrizFan]

There’s nothing in the data to suggest....how about the fact that “in the data” it had NEVER, IN HISTORY, kept declining below a certain point? Trends don’t seem to matter to you.

Lowest UE in 50 years
Lowest AA unemployment EVER
Lowest Hispanic UE EVER
Longest sustained economic expansion EVER

So easy to do, even a caveman could do it.

[JohnStOnge]

There’s nothing in the data to suggest....how about the fact that “in the data” it had NEVER, IN HISTORY, kept declining below a certain point? Trends don’t seem to matter to you.

Reaching your conclusions on the basis of the lowest rate occurring is not looking at trend. It's looking at history. I do look at trends. I went ahead and looked at a longer term trend. I looked at Black unemployment rate over the entire period of record; which started in 1972. It generally went up until around 1983. See image below (I was also looking at a table with the numbers that shows up below the graph). It peaked at 21.2% in January of that year. Since then through at least 2019 the long term trend was been downward. There have been ups and downs. But there is no doubt that, if I applied a statistical test of trend to the data 1983 through 2019 it would support saying that, in general, there was a significant downward trend.

Looking at the data I would say there are disturbances in the trend suggesting that things change. One is 1983 because there was consistent downward movement from then through mid 1990. Looks like something may have happened there as, from that point there was a short term upward trend through around mid 1992. Another point at least one might look to see if something happened as it switched to a downward trend late 2000. Another possible change at that point as it moved generally upward from there through mid 2003. Then what appears to be another short term downward trend until near the start of what we now know was the Great Recession.

THEN there is an unbroken downward trend through around the end of 2019 and beginning of 2020. No indication in the data, at all, that something happened around the end of 2016 or beginning of 2017 to change either the long term trend (1982 on) or the short term trend (2010 on), until that sharp upward leap in 2020. And we know what that's about.

If somebody were shown that graph (and the accompanying data table) and asked to identify points in time where it looks like something happened so we could investigate and see what it might have been, there is no WAY they would pick near the end of 2016 and beginning of 2017 to look at. The last two points in time they would see as providing such an indication are early 2010 and early 2020.

[BDKJMU]

There’s nothing in the data to suggest....how about the fact that “in the data” it had NEVER, IN HISTORY, kept declining below a certain point? Trends don’t seem to matter to you.

Reaching your conclusions on the basis of the lowest rate occurring is not looking at trend. It's looking at history. I do look at trends. I went ahead and looked at a longer term trend. I looked at Black unemployment rate over the entire period of record; which started in 1972. It generally went up until around 1983. See image below (I was also looking at a table with the numbers that shows up below the graph). It peaked at 21.2% in January of that year. Since then through at least 2019 the long term trend was been downward. There have been ups and downs. But there is no doubt that, if I applied a statistical test of trend to the data 1983 through 2019 it would support saying that, in general, there was a significant downward trend.

Looking at the data I would say there are disturbances in the trend suggesting that things change. One is 1983 because there was consistent downward movement from then through mid 1990. Looks like something may have happened there as, from that point there was a short term upward trend through around mid 1992. Another point at least one might look to see if something happened as it switched to a downward trend late 2000. Another possible change at that point as it moved generally upward from there through mid 2003. Then what appears to be another short term downward trend until near the start of what we now know was the Great Recession.

THEN there is an unbroken downward trend through around the end of 2019 and beginning of 2020. No indication in the data, at all, that something happened around the end of 2016 or beginning of 2017 to change either the long term trend (1982 on) or the short term trend (2010 on), until that sharp upward leap in 2020. And we know what that's about.

If somebody were shown that graph (and the accompanying data table) and asked to identify points in time where it looks like something happened so we could investigate and see what it might have been, there is no WAY they would pick near the end of 2016 and beginning of 2017 to look at. The last two points in time they would see as providing such an indication are early 2010 and early 2020.

[JohnStOnge]

I should have thought of looking at this earlier. When you look at something like Black unemployment rate, you need to consider the starting point for each President. And Trump took over under the best circumstances with respect to Black unemployment since they started keeping track of that. It started in 1972. Here is the situation each President took over in that regard:

1973 Nixon took over with the Black unemployment rate at 9.1% and in a decreasing trend.
1977 Carter took over with Black unemployment at 13.8% and in an increasing trend.
1981 Reagan took over with Black unemployment at 14.6% and in an increasing trend.
1989 H.W. Bush took over with Black unemployment at 11.8% and in a decreasing trend.
1993 Clinton took over with Black unemployment at 14.1% and in an increasing trend.
2001 G.W. Bush took over with Black unemployment at 8.2% and in an uncertain trend.
2009 Barack Obama took over with Black unemployment at 12.7% and in an increasing trend.
2017 Donald Trump took over with Black unemployment at 7.4% and in a decreasing trend.

Now, which President took over during the best situation with respect to Black unemployment since they started keeping track of Black unemployment?

So, do you think that the lowest Black unemployment rate of the period would've been during Donald Trump if he'd have taken over when it was at 14.6% and in an increasing trend as was the case with Reagan? How about if it had been at 12.7% and in an increasing trend as was the case with Obama?

Of course not. You can't ignore what the situation was when the person took over and Trump had the benefit of taking over under the best circumstances with respect to Black unemployment rate that any of the eight Presidents listed encountered.

[UNI88]

I should have thought of looking at this earlier. When you look at something like Black unemployment rate, you need to consider the starting point for each President. And Trump took over under the best circumstances with respect to Black unemployment since they started keeping track of that. It started in 1972. Here is the situation each President took over in that regard:

1973 Nixon took over with the Black unemployment rate at 9.1% and in a decreasing trend.
1977 Carter took over with Black unemployment at 13.8% and in an increasing trend.
1981 Reagan took over with Black unemployment at 14.6% and in an increasing trend.
1989 H.W. Bush took over with Black unemployment at 11.8% and in a decreasing trend.
1993 Clinton took over with Black unemployment at 14.1% and in an increasing trend.
2001 G.W. Bush took over with Black unemployment at 8.2% and in an uncertain trend.
2009 Barack Obama took over with Black unemployment at 12.7% and in an increasing trend.
2017 Donald Trump took over with Black unemployment at 7.4% and in a decreasing trend.

Now, which President took over during the best situation with respect to Black unemployment since they started keeping track of Black unemployment?

So, do you think that the lowest Black unemployment rate of the period would've been during Donald Trump if he'd have taken over when it was at 14.6% and in an increasing trend as was the case with Reagan? How about if it had been at 12.7% and in an increasing trend as was the case with Obama?

Of course not. You can't ignore what the situation was when the person took over and Trump had the benefit of taking over under the best circumstances with respect to Black unemployment rate that any of the eight Presidents listed encountered.

Debating with you is like debating with JBB.

[kalm]

I should have thought of looking at this earlier. When you look at something like Black unemployment rate, you need to consider the starting point for each President. And Trump took over under the best circumstances with respect to Black unemployment since they started keeping track of that. It started in 1972. Here is the situation each President took over in that regard:

1973 Nixon took over with the Black unemployment rate at 9.1% and in a decreasing trend.
1977 Carter took over with Black unemployment at 13.8% and in an increasing trend.
1981 Reagan took over with Black unemployment at 14.6% and in an increasing trend.
1989 H.W. Bush took over with Black unemployment at 11.8% and in a decreasing trend.
1993 Clinton took over with Black unemployment at 14.1% and in an increasing trend.
2001 G.W. Bush took over with Black unemployment at 8.2% and in an uncertain trend.
2009 Barack Obama took over with Black unemployment at 12.7% and in an increasing trend.
2017 Donald Trump took over with Black unemployment at 7.4% and in a decreasing trend.

Now, which President took over during the best situation with respect to Black unemployment since they started keeping track of Black unemployment?

So, do you think that the lowest Black unemployment rate of the period would've been during Donald Trump if he'd have taken over when it was at 14.6% and in an increasing trend as was the case with Reagan? How about if it had been at 12.7% and in an increasing trend as was the case with Obama?

Of course not. You can't ignore what the situation was when the person took over and Trump had the benefit of taking over under the best circumstances with respect to Black unemployment rate that any of the eight Presidents listed encountered.

Debating with you is like debating with JBB.

He’s Gary King!

[UNI88]

Debating with you is like debating with JBB.

He’s Gary King!

You're giving JBB a lot more credit than I would.

[kalm]

He’s Gary King!

You're giving JBB a lot more credit than I would.

This Gary King?

[AZGrizFan]

I should have thought of looking at this earlier. When you look at something like Black unemployment rate, you need to consider the starting point for each President. And Trump took over under the best circumstances with respect to Black unemployment since they started keeping track of that. It started in 1972. Here is the situation each President took over in that regard:

1973 Nixon took over with the Black unemployment rate at 9.1% and in a decreasing trend.
1977 Carter took over with Black unemployment at 13.8% and in an increasing trend.
1981 Reagan took over with Black unemployment at 14.6% and in an increasing trend.
1989 H.W. Bush took over with Black unemployment at 11.8% and in a decreasing trend.
1993 Clinton took over with Black unemployment at 14.1% and in an increasing trend.
2001 G.W. Bush took over with Black unemployment at 8.2% and in an uncertain trend.
2009 Barack Obama took over with Black unemployment at 12.7% and in an increasing trend.
2017 Donald Trump took over with Black unemployment at 7.4% and in a decreasing trend.

Now, which President took over during the best situation with respect to Black unemployment since they started keeping track of Black unemployment?

So, do you think that the lowest Black unemployment rate of the period would've been during Donald Trump if he'd have taken over when it was at 14.6% and in an increasing trend as was the case with Reagan? How about if it had been at 12.7% and in an increasing trend as was the case with Obama?

Of course not. You can't ignore what the situation was when the person took over and Trump had the benefit of taking over under the best circumstances with respect to Black unemployment rate that any of the eight Presidents listed encountered.

So your entire analysis comes down to timing. Perfect. He just got lucky.

[UNI88]

I should have thought of looking at this earlier. When you look at something like Black unemployment rate, you need to consider the starting point for each President. And Trump took over under the best circumstances with respect to Black unemployment since they started keeping track of that. It started in 1972. Here is the situation each President took over in that regard:

1973 Nixon took over with the Black unemployment rate at 9.1% and in a decreasing trend.
1977 Carter took over with Black unemployment at 13.8% and in an increasing trend.
1981 Reagan took over with Black unemployment at 14.6% and in an increasing trend.
1989 H.W. Bush took over with Black unemployment at 11.8% and in a decreasing trend.
1993 Clinton took over with Black unemployment at 14.1% and in an increasing trend.
2001 G.W. Bush took over with Black unemployment at 8.2% and in an uncertain trend.
2009 Barack Obama took over with Black unemployment at 12.7% and in an increasing trend.
2017 Donald Trump took over with Black unemployment at 7.4% and in a decreasing trend.

Now, which President took over during the best situation with respect to Black unemployment since they started keeping track of Black unemployment?

So, do you think that the lowest Black unemployment rate of the period would've been during Donald Trump if he'd have taken over when it was at 14.6% and in an increasing trend as was the case with Reagan? How about if it had been at 12.7% and in an increasing trend as was the case with Obama?

Of course not. You can't ignore what the situation was when the person took over and Trump had the benefit of taking over under the best circumstances with respect to Black unemployment rate that any of the eight Presidents listed encountered.

So your entire analysis comes down to timing. Perfect. He just got lucky.

His entire analysis comes down to whatever way he has to frame it so that he can justify not giving Trump credit.

[CID1990]

Trump added about 35% to the national debt on spending alone

Maybe the Tea Party really WAS about the black guy because they sure didn’t say shit about the profligate spending under Trump


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[houndawg]

I thought about doing unemployment rate but that is to some extent a function of job creation. I think the fair way to do it is to look at how much the unemployment rate declined during Trump's first three years before COVID vs. how much it declined during the last three years under Obama. The overall unemployment rate declined by 1.1 percentage points during Trump's first three years after declining by 2.0 percentage points during Obama's last three years. The Black unemployment rate declined by 1.8 percentage points during Trump's first three years after declining by 3.9 percentage points during Obama's last three years. The Black unemployment rate declined by 1.5 percentage points under Trump after declining by 2.5 percentage points during Obama's last three years.

That's as fair a way to compare as there is. It's understood that, since the unemployment rate had already declined from 10 percent to 4.7 percent while Obama was President there was not a lot of room for it to go much lower by the time Trump took office. For the rate to decrease during Trump's first three years by as much as it did during Obama's last three it would have had to get to 2.7 percent and that is probably unlikely. At the same time, it's fair to say that the overwhelming preponderance of the decline in unemployment rate overall, among Blacks, and among Hispanics occurred during 2010 through 2016 while Obama was in office.

I don't know about "comparing" length of economic recovery because Obama took over when the economy was in decline. So he couldn't really continue a recovery since it started during his term. All one can say is that we had an economic recovery that proceeded for 7.5 years while Obama was President then continued for another 3.1 years while Trump was President before ending in February 2020.

hardly fair. Obama was starting from much higher #’s across the board. Point being, it got lower than it has in 50+ years. Minority unemployment got lower than it has—-EVER. Again, if THAT was so easy, why has NO president ever been able to accomplish it? How is it that it didn’t happen until the orange buffoon became president? Serendipity? Blind luck? Coincidence? Because you’ve NEVER given him any credit for implementing policies that created those numbers....in fact, in some cases he was his own worst enemy (trade war with China, pissing off Mexico, etc)....yet there we were, humming along in never-before-seen economic territory until the fake virus came along and derailed everything juuuuuust in time for election season....

...the one that disappeared on Nov. 4? That fake virus?