Bidenflation and Shortage thread

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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by Baldy »

kalm wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 7:41 am
The net profit margin of S&P 500 companies, which include energy giants such as Chevron and Exxon Mobil, in the first quarter has been running at 12.3% based on estimates and earnings reported so far, according to FactSet. That’s down from a peak of 13.1% in the second quarter of last year, but above the pre-COVID-19 level of about 11%.

“Profit margins should be coming down,” Lindsay Owens, executive director of Groundwork Collaborative, a progressive economic policy research group, previously told USA TODAY.


Instead, she noted, “they’re actually growing.”

Here's a breakdown of the profits and earnings some of the world's oil giants made in the first three months of 2022:
https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/ec ... 686761002/
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by GannonFan »

kalm wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:38 am
GannonFan wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 8:57 am

Funny, the business I work in we don't stay in markets where we don't make at least a 25% profit margin. If we were just making 12% we'd get out of the business. So when government decides to institute a wind-fall profit tax, how do they decide how much money everyone should make? :coffee:

Also, in the quote above from that progressive economic policy research group, why should "profit margins" be coming down? Isn't it possible that, given it was clear with the incoming administration that it would be a focus to eliminate fossil fuels, that these companies started to protect themselves from losing money and diversified elsewhere and also got rid of things that would cost them money? There's a reason why we don't really do much, if any, refining in this country anymore. The political headwinds have been obvious, so a decent company would've planned accordingly for that and protected their losses. Looking at profit margins only tells you if the business is managing their losses versus their revenues.
Agreed. So we really shouldn’t be complaining about gas prices. It’s all working how it’s supposed to. :thumb:
Uh, no, we should, but the blame goes elsewhere. Oil companies didn't create massive inflation by themselves, or even at all. Inflation has been, and always will be, a money supply problem - too much money chasing too few goods and services. Don't need fancy economics for that, and the Fed and the government used to know that. But, we go ahead and drop $3T-plus into an already overheated economy already reeling from supply difficulties that were both pandemic related and how-we-responded to the pandemic related, and we let the Fed drag their feet for a good two years and lose sight of their major mission to counter inflation and here we are - on the brink of a recession and even people like Janet Yellen are now using the word "stagflation".

Is every company that raises their prices a price gouger? No, of course not. Is there a company out there somewhere who is price gouging? Of course there will be. But that's the problem with letting inflation out of the barn in the first place, it tends to become self-fulfilling and there's no easy way out of it except for economic retraction. The people in charge blew this one, big time. No need to be searching the weeds for scapegoats, government and the Fed are on TV plenty enough to know who they are. :coffee:
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by kalm »

GannonFan wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 12:23 pm
kalm wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 9:38 am

Agreed. So we really shouldn’t be complaining about gas prices. It’s all working how it’s supposed to. :thumb:
Uh, no, we should, but the blame goes elsewhere. Oil companies didn't create massive inflation by themselves, or even at all. Inflation has been, and always will be, a money supply problem - too much money chasing too few goods and services. Don't need fancy economics for that, and the Fed and the government used to know that. But, we go ahead and drop $3T-plus into an already overheated economy already reeling from supply difficulties that were both pandemic related and how-we-responded to the pandemic related, and we let the Fed drag their feet for a good two years and lose sight of their major mission to counter inflation and here we are - on the brink of a recession and even people like Janet Yellen are now using the word "stagflation".

Is every company that raises their prices a price gouger? No, of course not. Is there a company out there somewhere who is price gouging? Of course there will be. But that's the problem with letting inflation out of the barn in the first place, it tends to become self-fulfilling and there's no easy way out of it except for economic retraction. The people in charge blew this one, big time. No need to be searching the weeds for scapegoats, government and the Fed are on TV plenty enough to know who they are. :coffee:
Why would they be using the stagflation now?
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by GannonFan »

kalm wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 1:30 pm
GannonFan wrote: Thu May 19, 2022 12:23 pm

Uh, no, we should, but the blame goes elsewhere. Oil companies didn't create massive inflation by themselves, or even at all. Inflation has been, and always will be, a money supply problem - too much money chasing too few goods and services. Don't need fancy economics for that, and the Fed and the government used to know that. But, we go ahead and drop $3T-plus into an already overheated economy already reeling from supply difficulties that were both pandemic related and how-we-responded to the pandemic related, and we let the Fed drag their feet for a good two years and lose sight of their major mission to counter inflation and here we are - on the brink of a recession and even people like Janet Yellen are now using the word "stagflation".

Is every company that raises their prices a price gouger? No, of course not. Is there a company out there somewhere who is price gouging? Of course there will be. But that's the problem with letting inflation out of the barn in the first place, it tends to become self-fulfilling and there's no easy way out of it except for economic retraction. The people in charge blew this one, big time. No need to be searching the weeds for scapegoats, government and the Fed are on TV plenty enough to know who they are. :coffee:
Why would they be using the stagflation now?
Maybe they don't want to be late to the game in identifying it like they where with the initial jump in inflation - they did take a lot of heat for dragging their feet to do anything and brushing off inflation then as "transitory".
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

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The Fed needs a Paul Volcker.

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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by HI54UNI »

If you heat your house with natural gas you better hope your utility is well hedged for the upcoming winter. I'm being told that some futures contracts for next winter hit $10 yesterday. The spot market hit $5-6 last winter with most gas probably hedged for $2-3. Heat bills are going to be ugly.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

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HI54UNI wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 9:53 am If you heat your house with natural gas you better hope your utility is well hedged for the upcoming winter. I'm being told that some futures contracts for next winter hit $10 yesterday. The spot market hit $5-6 last winter with most gas probably hedged for $2-3. Heat bills are going to be ugly.
Propane for my house. I normally lock in a price for 10 months in the summer, it's been a good way before. Unlikely to avoid big price increases this year. But I guess I could just buy a Tesla and sit in it to reduce my footprint, or something like that. :coffee:
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by kalm »

GannonFan wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 10:27 am
HI54UNI wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 9:53 am If you heat your house with natural gas you better hope your utility is well hedged for the upcoming winter. I'm being told that some futures contracts for next winter hit $10 yesterday. The spot market hit $5-6 last winter with most gas probably hedged for $2-3. Heat bills are going to be ugly.
Propane for my house. I normally lock in a price for 10 months in the summer, it's been a good way before. Unlikely to avoid big price increases this year. But I guess I could just buy a Tesla and sit in it to reduce my footprint, or something like that. :coffee:
With your local propane company?

I need to do this for my shop.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by HI54UNI »

kalm wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 10:55 am
GannonFan wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 10:27 am

Propane for my house. I normally lock in a price for 10 months in the summer, it's been a good way before. Unlikely to avoid big price increases this year. But I guess I could just buy a Tesla and sit in it to reduce my footprint, or something like that. :coffee:
With your local propane company?

I need to do this for my shop.
Our local propane companies offer two things. One is a summer fill where you fill your tank full during the summer to take advantage of off season pricing. Then you contract for additional gallons to be delivered during the winter. Usually pretty good savings. They'll also give additional discounts if you pay the full summer fill and contract amounts in full rather than spread it out over the winter months.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by kalm »

HI54UNI wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 5:45 pm
kalm wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 10:55 am

With your local propane company?

I need to do this for my shop.
Our local propane companies offer two things. One is a summer fill where you fill your tank full during the summer to take advantage of off season pricing. Then you contract for additional gallons to be delivered during the winter. Usually pretty good savings. They'll also give additional discounts if you pay the full summer fill and contract amounts in full rather than spread it out over the winter months.
I’ll look into it.

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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by Baldy »

kalm wrote: Sun May 22, 2022 7:57 am
Government run baby formula factories. What could go wrong?
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by Winterborn »

kalm wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 10:55 am
GannonFan wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 10:27 am

Propane for my house. I normally lock in a price for 10 months in the summer, it's been a good way before. Unlikely to avoid big price increases this year. But I guess I could just buy a Tesla and sit in it to reduce my footprint, or something like that. :coffee:
With your local propane company?

I need to do this for my shop.
My brother does the same for his. But then he has a 500 gallon tank, with a 1000 gallon trailer as back up.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by kalm »

Winterborn wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 5:59 am
kalm wrote: Fri May 20, 2022 10:55 am

With your local propane company?

I need to do this for my shop.
My brother does the same for his. But then he has a 500 gallon tank, with a 1000 gallon trailer as back up.
How long does 500 gallons last you in the winter? How big is your shop? Insulated?
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by Winterborn »

kalm wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 6:39 am
Winterborn wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 5:59 am

My brother does the same for his. But then he has a 500 gallon tank, with a 1000 gallon trailer as back up.
How long does 500 gallons last you in the winter? How big is your shop? Insulated?
His is a 40x80 shop with underfloor heating throughout, along with walls and ceiling spray foamed with 4 inches of insulation. It depends on the winter but I think he uses about 200-300 gallons a winter. But he uses the same tank for his house (hot water heater and central air furnace, on a double wide). The only thing that is propane in the shop is his boiler system for the underfloor heating.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by kalm »

Winterborn wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 6:48 am
kalm wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 6:39 am

How long does 500 gallons last you in the winter? How big is your shop? Insulated?
His is a 40x80 shop with underfloor heating throughout, along with walls and ceiling spray foamed with 4 inches of insulation. It depends on the winter but I think he uses about 200-300 gallons a winter. But he uses the same tank for his house (hot water heater and central air furnace, on a double wide). The only thing that is propane in the shop is his boiler system for the underfloor heating.
That’s a nice set up. Ours is about the same size but we go through a tank in about a month and a half. From December-February. Put in ceiling fans (it’s tall) and insulated the hangar door in late winter but also need to build an insulated false ceiling.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by Winterborn »

kalm wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 6:55 am
Winterborn wrote: Mon May 23, 2022 6:48 am

His is a 40x80 shop with underfloor heating throughout, along with walls and ceiling spray foamed with 4 inches of insulation. It depends on the winter but I think he uses about 200-300 gallons a winter. But he uses the same tank for his house (hot water heater and central air furnace, on a double wide). The only thing that is propane in the shop is his boiler system for the underfloor heating.
That’s a nice set up. Ours is about the same size but we go through a tank in about a month and a half. From December-February. Put in ceiling fans (it’s tall) and insulated the hangar door in late winter but also need to build an insulated false ceiling.
Brother has two smallish ceiling fans that he installed between the rafters that help, but we could use some that are bigger. But that would cut down on our clearance height and right now it is just not worth it for the equipment we work on.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

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Just start at the 3 min mark: Cliff notes: Schumer excoriating Trump for $2.92 national avg gas when Obama left office/Trump entered with $2.36 (Trump left with office with about $2.34 ironically), and Schumer stating that you can’t blame the last guy in office for high gas prices.

Well, Schumer is right. :lol:
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

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:ohno:

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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by HI54UNI »

Ameren telling their Illinois customers to expect to see their electric bills increase by $52/month this summer.

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Just wait until this coming winter and people get the sticker shock on their natural gas bills. The Dems are lucky that the worst bills won't hit until after the election.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by BDKJMU »

Biden admin strategy: Hope.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

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I wonder if she waved at the peasants as she drove by. Talk about tone deaf.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

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Says the admin that declared a war on fossil fuel during the 2020 campaign and 1st week in office: Sorry, nothing we can do.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/06/07/politics ... index.html
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by BDKJMU »

May year over year inflation #s out this morning. Increased from &.3% to 8.6%.
Was 1.4% when Brandon came into office.
12% in the 17 months since Brandon came into office.
https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inf ... %20percent

Wall Street had expected 8.3%. Dow down 600+ after the same yesterday. Brandon and his admin continue to dither while the whole country suffers.. :ohno:
Last edited by BDKJMU on Fri Jun 10, 2022 7:13 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by CAA Flagship »

BDKJMU wrote: Fri Jun 10, 2022 6:49 am May year over year inflation #s out this morning. 8.6%
Was 1.4% when Brandon came into office.
12% in the 17 months since Brandon came into office.
https://inflationdata.com/Inflation/Inf ... %20percent

Wall Street had expected 8.3%. Dow down 600+ after the same yesterday. Brandon and his admin continue to dither while the whole country suffers.. :ohno:
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