Bidenflation and Shortage thread

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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by HI54UNI »

German producer price post record jump, adding to inflation woes

FRANKFURT — German producer prices rose in August at the fastest rate since records began in 1949, data released by the Federal Statistical Office showed today, pointing to a further increase in consumer prices.

Producer prices of industrial products rose by 45.8 percent compared to the same month of last year. Compared to July 2022, prices rose 7.9 percent.

Soaring energy prices on the back of Russia’s war against the Ukraine remain the main driver behind rising prices.

The record jump will add to worries that consumer prices will continue to rise in the months ahead. Germany’s Bundesbank projected earlier this week that inflation could top the ten percent mark over the coming months.

https://www.politico.eu/article/german- ... tion-woes/

So much stuff is made in Germany. Just wait until this winter when manufacturers have to shut down due to their energy crisis.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by HI54UNI »

Winter is coming, and natural gas prices are skyrocketing across the Rockford area

The cost of natural gas in northern Illinois has more than doubled since last September when it cost 53-cents per therm. The cost per therm stands at $1.24 as fall and winter weather approaches. A therm is a measure of natural gas equal to about 100,000 BTUs.

The current estimate for the typical Nicor residential customer who uses 825 therms this coming winter is $1,223 for the five-month period from November 2022 to March 2023. Of that, $971, or nearly 80%, is the cost of natural gas.

It cost about $770, or about 58% less, for the same amount of gas last winter, Nicor Gas said.

https://www.rrstar.com/story/news/2022/ ... dium=email

The shit is going to hit the fan with a lot of people this winter. This isn't all reflected in the inflation numbers yet either.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by Winterborn »

No it is not. But I think the FED know it is coming in part and that is part of the reason why they are staying the course on the 75 point increases.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by GannonFan »

I prepay for my propane (propane is used for basically everything in my house). I'm paying about 35%-40% more this year, even with the reduced prepay option, than I did last year. I really feel for those folks who aren't locked in for the season. Inflation is real and a really big deal, even if a good portion of our political class pretends like it's not happening (or that it's just all Putin's fault).
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

I continue to wonder why they don't report inflation in terms of what the most recent monthly rate translates to in terms of an annual rate. The way they do it now creates a situation where inflation can stop entirely but we continue to report high inflation every month.

For example: Say that the monthly rate of increase between September and October of 2021 was 0.17 percent. That translates into an annual rate of 2%.

Now, say prices during September 2022 are 10 percent higher than they were in September 2021. Then say prices do not increase at all during October 2022. The actual inflation rate for that month is 0.

But, even though the real inflation rate for the month was 0, prices in October 2022 will be 9.8% higher than prices were in October 2021. The number 9.8% creates the impression that inflation is still running wild during October 2022 even though prices did not increase at ALL during that month.

i just don't get why they report it in the way that they do. it definitely creates a false impression with respect to when inflation returns to an acceptable level. There's going to be something like a 12 month lag.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by GannonFan »

JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:56 pm I continue to wonder why they don't report inflation in terms of what the most recent monthly rate translates to in terms of an annual rate. The way they do it now creates a situation where inflation can stop entirely but we continue to report high inflation every month.

For example: Say that the monthly rate of increase between September and October of 2021 was 0.17 percent. That translates into an annual rate of 2%.

Now, say prices during September 2022 are 10 percent higher than they were in September 2021. Then say prices do not increase at all during October 2022. The actual inflation rate for that month is 0.

But, even though the real inflation rate for the month was 0, prices in October 2022 will be 9.8% higher than prices were in October 2021. The number 9.8% creates the impression that inflation is still running wild during October 2022 even though prices did not increase at ALL during that month.

i just don't get why they report it in the way that they do. it definitely creates a false impression with respect to when inflation returns to an acceptable level. There's going to be something like a 12 month lag.
Huh? It's always reported both ways. But why would you not want to know the year on year difference? What I paid for something last year versus what I pay for it now is a pretty good metric. Especially since most people tend to get annual raises in their salary - it's good to know if your buying power is more or less or unchanged from year to year. If I get a 5% raise, but everything on average costs 8% more, that's good to know. I guess it is, unless you're a politician who is mostly to blame for things costing 8% more.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

GannonFan wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:43 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:56 pm I continue to wonder why they don't report inflation in terms of what the most recent monthly rate translates to in terms of an annual rate. The way they do it now creates a situation where inflation can stop entirely but we continue to report high inflation every month.

For example: Say that the monthly rate of increase between September and October of 2021 was 0.17 percent. That translates into an annual rate of 2%.

Now, say prices during September 2022 are 10 percent higher than they were in September 2021. Then say prices do not increase at all during October 2022. The actual inflation rate for that month is 0.

But, even though the real inflation rate for the month was 0, prices in October 2022 will be 9.8% higher than prices were in October 2021. The number 9.8% creates the impression that inflation is still running wild during October 2022 even though prices did not increase at ALL during that month.

i just don't get why they report it in the way that they do. it definitely creates a false impression with respect to when inflation returns to an acceptable level. There's going to be something like a 12 month lag.
Huh? It's always reported both ways. But why would you not want to know the year on year difference? What I paid for something last year versus what I pay for it now is a pretty good metric. Especially since most people tend to get annual raises in their salary - it's good to know if your buying power is more or less or unchanged from year to year. If I get a 5% raise, but everything on average costs 8% more, that's good to know. I guess it is, unless you're a politician who is mostly to blame for things costing 8% more.
I have heard it reported both ways to an extent. But i think the big reports on inflation rate are year over year. The point is that the year over year report is not going to indicate when excessive inflation stops. Once you have a big year over year jump for one month that difference is going to be reflected in the year over year report for subsequent months even if prices do not increase at all.

If you are worried about inflation, why would you not emphasize the extent to which prices increased over the past month? If prices were 10% higher during September, 2022 than they were in September, 2021 but prices didn't increase at all during September, 2022 and are just higher now than they were in 2021 during the same month because the "floor" was raised by a high percentage months ago, why would you not want to emphasize that?

If what you are trying to do is detect when inflation stops, it makes zero sense to look at the month this year vs. the same month last year. What you should be looking at how much prices increased this month over what they were last month. And if you are reporting inflation rate to the public you should be using that metric. That's what is going to tell them how fast prices are rising now.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by BDKJMU »

Or it could be reported since Brandon came into office. About 13.5%..
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by HI54UNI »

JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:57 pm
GannonFan wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:43 pm

Huh? It's always reported both ways. But why would you not want to know the year on year difference? What I paid for something last year versus what I pay for it now is a pretty good metric. Especially since most people tend to get annual raises in their salary - it's good to know if your buying power is more or less or unchanged from year to year. If I get a 5% raise, but everything on average costs 8% more, that's good to know. I guess it is, unless you're a politician who is mostly to blame for things costing 8% more.
I have heard it reported both ways to an extent. But i think the big reports on inflation rate are year over year. The point is that the year over year report is not going to indicate when excessive inflation stops. Once you have a big year over year jump for one month that difference is going to be reflected in the year over year report for subsequent months even if prices do not increase at all.

If you are worried about inflation, why would you not emphasize the extent to which prices increased over the past month? If prices were 10% higher during September, 2022 than they were in September, 2021 but prices didn't increase at all during September, 2022 and are just higher now than they were in 2021 during the same month because the "floor" was raised by a high percentage months ago, why would you not want to emphasize that?

If what you are trying to do is detect when inflation stops, it makes zero sense to look at the month this year vs. the same month last year. What you should be looking at how much prices increased this month over what they were last month. And if you are reporting inflation rate to the public you should be using that metric. That's what is going to tell them how fast prices are rising now.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by GannonFan »

JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:57 pm
GannonFan wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:43 pm

Huh? It's always reported both ways. But why would you not want to know the year on year difference? What I paid for something last year versus what I pay for it now is a pretty good metric. Especially since most people tend to get annual raises in their salary - it's good to know if your buying power is more or less or unchanged from year to year. If I get a 5% raise, but everything on average costs 8% more, that's good to know. I guess it is, unless you're a politician who is mostly to blame for things costing 8% more.
I have heard it reported both ways to an extent. But i think the big reports on inflation rate are year over year. The point is that the year over year report is not going to indicate when excessive inflation stops. Once you have a big year over year jump for one month that difference is going to be reflected in the year over year report for subsequent months even if prices do not increase at all.

If you are worried about inflation, why would you not emphasize the extent to which prices increased over the past month? If prices were 10% higher during September, 2022 than they were in September, 2021 but prices didn't increase at all during September, 2022 and are just higher now than they were in 2021 during the same month because the "floor" was raised by a high percentage months ago, why would you not want to emphasize that?

If what you are trying to do is detect when inflation stops, it makes zero sense to look at the month this year vs. the same month last year. What you should be looking at how much prices increased this month over what they were last month. And if you are reporting inflation rate to the public you should be using that metric. That's what is going to tell them how fast prices are rising now.
Of course, by doing that, you almost always make inflation look small, as if it's not a big deal. Because, again, it's not as easy to think in month to month numbers as it is on yearly numbers. Corporate earnings are reported in annual terms, mortgage rates are reported in annual terms, pretty much everything is reported in annual terms. People tend to want to report the smaller number when the annual terms don't paint a good story.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:57 pm
GannonFan wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 7:43 pm

Huh? It's always reported both ways. But why would you not want to know the year on year difference? What I paid for something last year versus what I pay for it now is a pretty good metric. Especially since most people tend to get annual raises in their salary - it's good to know if your buying power is more or less or unchanged from year to year. If I get a 5% raise, but everything on average costs 8% more, that's good to know. I guess it is, unless you're a politician who is mostly to blame for things costing 8% more.
I have heard it reported both ways to an extent. But i think the big reports on inflation rate are year over year. The point is that the year over year report is not going to indicate when excessive inflation stops. Once you have a big year over year jump for one month that difference is going to be reflected in the year over year report for subsequent months even if prices do not increase at all.

If you are worried about inflation, why would you not emphasize the extent to which prices increased over the past month? If prices were 10% higher during September, 2022 than they were in September, 2021 but prices didn't increase at all during September, 2022 and are just higher now than they were in 2021 during the same month because the "floor" was raised by a high percentage months ago, why would you not want to emphasize that?

If what you are trying to do is detect when inflation stops, it makes zero sense to look at the month this year vs. the same month last year. What you should be looking at how much prices increased this month over what they were last month. And if you are reporting inflation rate to the public you should be using that metric. That's what is going to tell them how fast prices are rising now.
Everyone who understands economics understands that. It’s reported both ways, and the numbers are easily researchable, but the way it’s been reported for years and years has been year-over-year. But sure, lets change it now because the narrative is terrible for the donks. :roll: :roll:
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by HI54UNI »

GannonFan wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:23 pm I prepay for my propane (propane is used for basically everything in my house). I'm paying about 35%-40% more this year, even with the reduced prepay option, than I did last year. I really feel for those folks who aren't locked in for the season. Inflation is real and a really big deal, even if a good portion of our political class pretends like it's not happening (or that it's just all Putin's fault).
Mine is up 37% with the contract and prepay in full option. I feel sorry for anyone that can't afford to do the prepay option.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by GannonFan »

HI54UNI wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:16 am
GannonFan wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 6:23 pm I prepay for my propane (propane is used for basically everything in my house). I'm paying about 35%-40% more this year, even with the reduced prepay option, than I did last year. I really feel for those folks who aren't locked in for the season. Inflation is real and a really big deal, even if a good portion of our political class pretends like it's not happening (or that it's just all Putin's fault).
Mine is up 37% with the contract and prepay in full option. I feel sorry for anyone that can't afford to do the prepay option.
Nah, just think of it as a month to month change like JSO says and it won't be as bad. :rofl:
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

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BDKJMU wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 9:10 pm Or it could be reported since Brandon came into office. About 13.5%..
Exactly.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by HI54UNI »

GannonFan wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:35 am
HI54UNI wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:16 am

Mine is up 37% with the contract and prepay in full option. I feel sorry for anyone that can't afford to do the prepay option.
Nah, just think of it as a month to month change like JSO says and it won't be as bad. :rofl:
Well propane has dropped about a nickel recently. So that's a 4% drop compared to last month. I feel much better thanks to JSO. :lol:
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by GannonFan »

HI54UNI wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 11:50 am
GannonFan wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 8:35 am

Nah, just think of it as a month to month change like JSO says and it won't be as bad. :rofl:
Well propane has dropped about a nickel recently. So that's a 4% drop compared to last month. I feel much better thanks to JSO. :lol:
See, all is right in the world and Biden has this inflation thing well under control. Somebody get on the phone to Jay Powell and tell him interest rate hikes are no longer necessary, might even be due for a rate drop, and also get on the phone to the White House and tell them we can reopen the spending spigots (don't worry, no one closed them yet so they're already ahead of you). :coffee:
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

This is to illustrate further what I am talking about. You can use the calculator at https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm to calculate month to month cost increases. Here is a table of what it looks like if you monitor things month by month and translate the inflation rate for each given month in 2022 to an annual rate:

Image

That is not a gimmick or a trick. That is real. The CPI did not increase, at all, during July and August of 2022. Doing it that way made things look even scarier in some of the earlier months. But what that table tells you is that it looks like inflation stopped completely during the most recent two months.

I do think it provides a better gauge of what is going on real time. It just does. I also wonder why the Fed thinks it's necessary to continue to raise rates when it is clear that inflation has stopped. I mean, what should one expect? If the CPI was 8.5% higher in July of 2022 than it was in July 2021 and the CPI only increased by 0.21% between July 2021 and August 2021 (which is what happened), they would have to drop by like 6% in ONE month to create a situation where the year over year inflation rate for August 2022 would be something like 2%. It's obviously not reasonable to think that would happen.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by UNI88 »

JohnStOnge wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:52 pm This is to illustrate further what I am talking about. You can use the calculator at https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm to calculate month to month cost increases. Here is a table of what it looks like if you monitor things month by month and translate the inflation rate for each given month in 2022 to an annual rate:

Image

That is not a gimmick or a trick. That is real. The overall CPI did not increase, at all, during July and August of 2022. Doing it that way made things look even scarier in some of the earlier months. But what that table tells you is that it looks like inflation stopped completely during the most recent two months.

I do think it provides a better gauge of what is going on real time. It just does. I also wonder why the Fed thinks it's necessary to continue to raise rates when it is clear that inflation has stopped. I mean, what should one expect? If the CPI was 8.5% higher in July of 2022 than they were in 2021 and the CPI only increased by 0.21% between July 2021 and August 2021 (which is what happened), they would have to drop by like 6% in ONE month to create a situation where the year over year inflation rate for August 2022 would be something like 2%. It's obviously not reasonable to think that would happen.
To the average American it doesn't. They don't care that inflation was minimal month-to-month between June, July and August. They care that they're paying a lot more for food, gas, etc. than they used to and if they're renting, their rent is likely to go up significantly when their lease ends. Their cost of living has dramatically increased and their pay isn't likely to keep pace so realistically, they're making less than they were last year. That's what the average schlub cares about.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:52 pm This is to illustrate further what I am talking about. You can use the calculator at https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm to calculate month to month cost increases. Here is a table of what it looks like if you monitor things month by month and translate the inflation rate for each given month in 2022 to an annual rate:

Image

That is not a gimmick or a trick. That is real. The CPI did not increase, at all, during July and August of 2022. Doing it that way made things look even scarier in some of the earlier months. But what that table tells you is that it looks like inflation stopped completely during the most recent two months.

I do think it provides a better gauge of what is going on real time. It just does. I also wonder why the Fed thinks it's necessary to continue to raise rates when it is clear that inflation has stopped. I mean, what should one expect? If the CPI was 8.5% higher in July of 2022 than it was in July 2021 and the CPI only increased by 0.21% between July 2021 and August 2021 (which is what happened), they would have to drop by like 6% in ONE month to create a situation where the year over year inflation rate for August 2022 would be something like 2%. It's obviously not reasonable to think that would happen.
well they were advertising "only" 7.5-8.5% all year when according to your chart it was over 14%, so what's good for the goose is good for the gander.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

AZGrizFan wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:58 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 3:52 pm This is to illustrate further what I am talking about. You can use the calculator at https://www.bls.gov/data/inflation_calculator.htm to calculate month to month cost increases. Here is a table of what it looks like if you monitor things month by month and translate the inflation rate for each given month in 2022 to an annual rate:

Image

That is not a gimmick or a trick. That is real. The CPI did not increase, at all, during July and August of 2022. Doing it that way made things look even scarier in some of the earlier months. But what that table tells you is that it looks like inflation stopped completely during the most recent two months.

I do think it provides a better gauge of what is going on real time. It just does. I also wonder why the Fed thinks it's necessary to continue to raise rates when it is clear that inflation has stopped. I mean, what should one expect? If the CPI was 8.5% higher in July of 2022 than it was in July 2021 and the CPI only increased by 0.21% between July 2021 and August 2021 (which is what happened), they would have to drop by like 6% in ONE month to create a situation where the year over year inflation rate for August 2022 would be something like 2%. It's obviously not reasonable to think that would happen.
well they were advertising "only" 7.5-8.5% all year when according to your chart it was over 14%, so what's good for the goose is good for the gander.
i don't know if they advertised any "only" stuff. But I am fine with being honest about what rates are doing at any given time. And right now, the CPI has been flat for the past two months. That is telling you that inflation has stopped for now. No way to know if that is a temporary aberration. But that is what's going on right now.

Unfortunately for the country most people aren't going to know that because of the way in which inflation is reported. So people are going to go into the mid terms thinking excessive inflation is continuing when it is not.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:37 pm
AZGrizFan wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 4:58 pm

well they were advertising "only" 7.5-8.5% all year when according to your chart it was over 14%, so what's good for the goose is good for the gander.
i don't know if they advertised any "only" stuff. But I am fine with being honest about what rates are doing at any given time. And right now, the CPI has been flat for the past two months. That is telling you that inflation has stopped for now. No way to know if that is a temporary aberration. But that is what's going on right now.

Unfortunately for the country most people aren't going to know that because of the way in which inflation is reported. So people are going to go into the mid terms thinking excessive inflation is continuing when it is not.
Oh they most certainly did advertise a number considerably lower than your numbers. But they’ve already pivoted to “inflation is over”, so your narrative is taking hold in the retarded party.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

AZGrizFan wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:24 pm
JohnStOnge wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:37 pm

i don't know if they advertised any "only" stuff. But I am fine with being honest about what rates are doing at any given time. And right now, the CPI has been flat for the past two months. That is telling you that inflation has stopped for now. No way to know if that is a temporary aberration. But that is what's going on right now.

Unfortunately for the country most people aren't going to know that because of the way in which inflation is reported. So people are going to go into the mid terms thinking excessive inflation is continuing when it is not.
Oh they most certainly did advertise a number considerably lower than your numbers. But they’ve already pivoted to “inflation is over”, so your narrative is taking hold in the retarded party.
i don't think any "they" advertised it. It's just the way inflation is reported. Normally it doesn't make all that much difference. But it's unfortunate for the Democrats right now because the truth is that excessive inflation has stopped. Or at least it stopped during July and August. And the way in which it is reported means that you don't see that in the numbers until well after the fact.

Let's say the same thing happens in September. You'd have three consecutive months during which prices overall have not increased. I think it's very reasonable to believe that having people understand that would help the Democrats. But if it does happen very few people are going to understand that because the year over year inflation rate is going to be high.

If we end up in a situation in which the net change in CPI during July through September is 0, the reported September inflation rate will be 8% because the CPI in June, 2022 was 8% higher than it was in September, 2021. So we would have had a three month period during which there was no inflation at all, but what people will see is that the September inflation number is 8%. That would be the case in the scenario i described even though there was no inflation during September at all.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by JohnStOnge »

HI54UNI wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:54 am
JohnStOnge wrote: Thu Sep 22, 2022 8:57 pm

I have heard it reported both ways to an extent. But i think the big reports on inflation rate are year over year. The point is that the year over year report is not going to indicate when excessive inflation stops. Once you have a big year over year jump for one month that difference is going to be reflected in the year over year report for subsequent months even if prices do not increase at all.

If you are worried about inflation, why would you not emphasize the extent to which prices increased over the past month? If prices were 10% higher during September, 2022 than they were in September, 2021 but prices didn't increase at all during September, 2022 and are just higher now than they were in 2021 during the same month because the "floor" was raised by a high percentage months ago, why would you not want to emphasize that?

If what you are trying to do is detect when inflation stops, it makes zero sense to look at the month this year vs. the same month last year. What you should be looking at how much prices increased this month over what they were last month. And if you are reporting inflation rate to the public you should be using that metric. That's what is going to tell them how fast prices are rising now.
Have you ever taken economics classes?
Yes I took one economics class in college. I THINK I took one in high school but that's getting to be in the realm where I can't remember for sure. It's a good thing that whether I took one or not has absolutely nothing to do with the math involved because i remember absolutely nothing about it.

The CPI did not rise during July or August, 2022, after consistently rising at monthly rates that translate into annual rates way above what people would like to see during each of the previous 6 months of the year. That is just an objective fact.

Let's say there is 0 change in the CPI during the current month. That would mean three months during which the CPI declined slightly during the first two then was flat during the third. But if that were to happen, when the September, 2022, inflation rate is reported during early October, an 8% September inflation rate will be reported because the June, 2022 CPI was already 8% higher than the September 2021 CPI was. The CPI declined slightly during July and August, but not enough to bring the difference between September 2022 and September 2021 to below 8.0% to the nearest 10th of a percentage point.

I think that the overwhelming majority of the people who see something like the August, 2022, inflation rate reported as 8.3% interpret that to mean the CPI increased during August. They think it indicates that prices are currently rising at an alarming rate. And they haven't been. Again: The CPI has been flat for two months. The last two months have been different. I went back through through December 2020 - January 2021. The CPI increased during each of the 18 months January 2021 through June 2022. Now it has declined for two straight months. But, unfortunately for the Democrats, virtually nobody is going to realize that something has changed even if the same thing happens in September because of the way in which inflation is reported. They are going to see 8% and think the CPI is still increasing.

And all of that is true whether I ever took an economics course or not.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by AZGrizFan »

JohnStOnge wrote: Sun Sep 25, 2022 7:12 am
HI54UNI wrote: Fri Sep 23, 2022 5:54 am

Have you ever taken economics classes?
Yes I took one economics class in college. I THINK I took one in high school but that's getting to be in the realm where I can't remember for sure. It's a good thing that whether I took one or not has absolutely nothing to do with the math involved because i remember absolutely nothing about it.

The CPI did not rise during July or August, 2022, after consistently rising at monthly rates that translate into annual rates way above what people would like to see during each of the previous 6 months of the year. That is just an objective fact.

Let's say there is 0 change in the CPI during the current month. That would mean three months during which the CPI declined slightly during the first two then was flat during the third. But if that were to happen, when the September, 2022, inflation rate is reported during early October, an 8% September inflation rate will be reported because the June, 2022 CPI was already 8% higher than the September 2021 CPI was. The CPI declined slightly during July and August, but not enough to bring the difference between September 2022 and September 2021 to below 8.0% to the nearest 10th of a percentage point.

I think that the overwhelming majority of the people who see something like the August, 2022, inflation rate reported as 8.3% interpret that to mean the CPI increased during August. They think it indicates that prices are currently rising at an alarming rate. And they haven't been. Again: The CPI has been flat for two months. The last two months have been different. I went back through through December 2020 - January 2021. The CPI increased during each of the 18 months January 2021 through June 2022. Now it has declined for two straight months. But, unfortunately for the Democrats, virtually nobody is going to realize that something has changed even if the same thing happens in September because of the way in which inflation is reported. They are going to see 8% and think the CPI is still increasing.

And all of that is true whether I ever took an economics course or not.
You mean the majority of MORONS. Inflation is reported year-over-year. Has been for decades. So when it was actually 15-16% on an annualized basis they got the benefit of it only being reported as 5-7%, and now that it’s finally slowed, they get the non-benefit of it being reported as 8.3-8.5%. The fact that it’s stopped going UP doesn’t change the fact that shit is 8.5% more expensive than last year, and about 14% more expensive than when Brandon took office, because don’t forget, the 8% # is on TOP OF the 6-7% increase in 2021.
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Re: Bidenflation and Shortage thread

Post by kalm »

A different take.

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