Election Day - Predictions & Your State Info

[HI54UNI]

Make your election day predictions here. Also include your predictions/info about your state.

[HI54UNI]

Iowa is going to be status quo. R Governor cruises to an easy victory as the Ds have a candidate but she's essentially a token. For US Senate Grassley has his closest race in his career but still wins easily. Currently 3 out of 4 US Reps are Republicans. The 3 incumbent Rs win. The incumbent D is in the tightest race and I think she is going to lose in a very close one. The lack of a credible governor candidate is going to hurt the Ds.

Iowa legislature will remain in control of the Rs. A few statewide races may be close - Attorney General and State Treasurer - it will all depend on how big the red wave ends up being but I think the Ds in those offices will hang on because Iowa generally likes its lifetime incumbents.

Grassley (age 89) has been an elected official since 1959, the state treasurer (age 70) has been in office since 1983, and the AG (age 78) has been AG since 1995 and was also AG from 1979-91 (he didn't run for re-election once in a failed gubernatorial try).

[Winterborn]

Make your election day predictions here. Also include your predictions/info about your state.

ND. Nothing changes from that last election (solid R). Would love Hoven to get the boot but doubt that will happen.

Overall I think the R's get one more in the Senate and about 15 in the House.

[HI54UNI]

House goes to 239 Rs and Senate 53 Rs.

[GannonFan]

I think the House goes to 231 R's, and I think the Senate goes to just 51 R's. I think the GOP picks up Georgia and Nevada, but I think Fetterman somehow still pulls out PA against all odds (and against my vote, I'm voting for Oz). Also in PA, no way Mastriano wins, Shapiro definitely wins the governorship (I'm voting for Shapiro). My rep, Madeleine Dean (D), will also win (I'm voting for her).

[Baldy]

Kemp wins going away. The giveaway was a large chunk (pun intended) of Abrams' staff being spotted in Hartsfield leaving town yesterday.

Raffensperger wins BIG over his seriously under qualified opponent...the Donk bench in GA is very very shallow. Don't be surprised to see Raffy in somewhat of a down ballot race get more votes overall than Kemp.

AG - also a pretty easy win over his equally under qualified opponent.

Lt. Gov - may be the closest statewide race of the day, but the Conk still should prevail.

Warnock and Walker will go to a runoff. Unless something strange happens, Warnock will most likely prevail. This would have been an easy win for the Conks if Walker would have stayed on the sidelines.

One of the hottest contested Congressional races in the country is the GA-02 between 30 year House veteran Sanford Bishop and young Conk upstart Chris West. Bishop has been a moderate Donk, but really ineffective in Congress. GA-02 is one of the poorest Congressional districts in the country. Bishop will most likely hold on to his seat...barely. If West can somehow win this race, it will be a sign that the red wave will be a mega tsunami.

[BDKJMU]

Senate 53 conk, 47 donk (hold everything, including PA), flip GA, NV, and one other, probably AZ. We won’t know by midnight ECB. Even tomorrow morning it could be about 50-47 conk with probably waiting on PA, GA, and AZ..

House Conks gain 30, so 242 total.

Gov conks hold all R seats and flip 3 Gov (WI, NV, OR). (which would make 31 conk gov, 18 donk, 1 lib Indy. Conks are long shots to pull upsets in NY, MI, and MN.

PA nothing flips (gov, senate, Congressional) (alrhough I haven’t followed the Congressional throughout the state).

Overall red tsunami.

[SeattleGriz]

Reps gain control of House and Senate.

Outside of that, living in WA, I would be shocked if dipshit Patty Murray loses, but sure hope she does just to send a message to our Governor.

[BDKJMU]

Reps gain control of House and Senate.

Outside of that, living in WA, I would be shocked if dipshit Patty Murray loses, but sure hope she does just to send a message to our Governor.

Yeah, if you look at the big Senate races that will most likely determine control, gambling markets:
PA, GA, NV: conks sleightly favored
AZ: back and forth tossup.
NH: donk sleightly favored.

Outside of those 5, the one longshot upset the conks might have a chance at is WA. Just like MI governor race, the conks have one of those mad mom newcomers/no real political experience. My guess is Murray wins, but gonna be real close.

[SeattleGriz]

Reps gain control of House and Senate.

Outside of that, living in WA, I would be shocked if dipshit Patty Murray loses, but sure hope she does just to send a message to our Governor.

Yeah, if you look at the big Senate races that will most likely determine control, gambling markets:
PA, GA, NV: conks sleightly favored
AZ: back and forth tossup.
NH: donk sleightly favored.

Outside of those 5, the one longshot upset the conks might have a chance at is WA. Just like in OR and MI governor races, the conks have one of those mad mom newcomers/no real political experience. My guess is Murray wins, but gonna be real close.

Just to be clear, as I'm sure you're aware, WA governorship is not on the ticket, but I'm hoping this election will send a message for when it is up.

If they mandate the mRNA vaccines, I'll be forced to move.

[BDKJMU]

Rob O’Rourke and Abrams will both get trounced. Abrams will concede this time, and the political careers as major donk candidates for both those 2 time loser clowns will be over.

[GannonFan]

Rob O’Rourke and Abrams will both get trounced. Abrams will concede this time, and the political careers as major donk candidates for both those 2 time loser clowns will be over.

Wow, Beto O'Rourke. I almost forgot he was running. Can't believe they keep putting him up as a candidate.

[HI54UNI]

I see they have a mess in Arizona right now. 20% of voting machines not working in Maricopa County.

[BDKJMU]

House Conks gain 30, so 242 total.

House Current:
220 donk
212 conk
3 Vacant

Added a total to my 30 gain prediction, as I see most of ya’ll are giving total seats, while Winterborn and myself just did # gained.

[BDKJMU]

I see they have a mess in Arizona right now. 20% of voting machines not working in Maricopa County.

Mess in Philly too. Saying it may take a couple days to ‘count’ the votes. Notice how this always seems to happen in only deep blue metros?

I wonder how many water mains are going to break in donk voting precincts?

[UNI88]

Reps gain control of House and Senate.

Outside of that, living in WA, I would be shocked if dipshit Patty Murray loses, but sure hope she does just to send a message to our Governor.

Yeah, if you look at the big Senate races that will most likely determine control, gambling markets:
PA, GA, NV: conks sleightly favored
AZ: back and forth tossup.
NH: donk sleightly favored.

Outside of those 5, the one longshot upset the conks might have a chance at is WA. Just like in OR and MI governor races, the conks have one of those mad mom newcomers/no real political experience. My guess is Murray wins, but gonna be real close.

Christine Drazan, Republican candidate for Governor of Oregon has four years in the Oregon House of Representatives including 2 years as Minority Leader. She also worked for the Speaker of the Oregon House in the 90's. I think that's a little more than "no real political experience."

Drazan has a chance to win the election thanks to the independent candidacy of Betsy Johnson and how poorly Oregon has faired under Democratic policies over the last 2-3 years. Her Democratic opponent, Tina Kotek, has been the Oregon Speaker of the House during this time.

[Pwns]

Republicans will conquer the house. Senate will be close and there will be lawsuits and run-offs before everything is settled.

Brian Kemp defeats Steecee Eebrams by 4.
DeSantis wins by 6.
O'Rourke gets draxed.

Donks have a good day in Arizona and Pennsylvania but bad days in Texas, GA, and Florida.

The $15 MW will prevail in Nebraska and marijuana wins in all 5 states with referendums.

[BDKJMU]

Yeah, if you look at the big Senate races that will most likely determine control, gambling markets:
PA, GA, NV: conks sleightly favored
AZ: back and forth tossup.
NH: donk sleightly favored.

Outside of those 5, the one longshot upset the conks might have a chance at is WA. Just like in OR and MI governor races, the conks have one of those mad mom newcomers/no real political experience. My guess is Murray wins, but gonna be real close.

Christine Drazan, Republican candidate for Governor of Oregon has four years in the Oregon House of Representatives including 2 years as Minority Leader. She also worked for the Speaker of the Oregon House in the 90's. I think that's a little more than "no real political experience."

Drazan has a chance to win the election thanks to the independent candidacy of Betsy Johnson and how poorly Oregon has faired under Democratic policies over the last 2-3 years. Her Democratic opponent, Tina Kotek, has been the Oregon Speaker of the House during this time.

My bad, I was lumping her in with female conk female candidates Tudor Dixon for Gov in MI, Smiley for Senate in WA, and Ganahl for gov in Colorado, and there’s another one I’m blanking on, without major political experience.

[BDKJMU]

FWIW Predictit, constantly updated:
https://www.predictit.org/

[kalm]

I’m not going to make a prediction. I’m just here for the MAGA whining over stolen elections that haven’t been tallied yet.

Oh…and I voted straight Socialist Workers Party. I did my part.

[Winterborn]

I’m not going to make a prediction. I’m just here for the MAGA whining over stolen elections that haven’t been tallied yet.

Oh…and I voted straight Socialist Workers Party. I did my part.

The camps need guards too.

[HI54UNI]

Guam tips over. Elects a Republican rep for the first time since 1990.

[Winterborn]

Republicans will conquer the house. Senate will be close and there will be lawsuits and run-offs before everything is settled.

Brian Kemp defeats Steecee Eebrams by 4.
DeSantis wins by 6.
O'Rourke gets draxed.

Donks have a good day in Arizona and Pennsylvania but bad days in Texas, GA, and Florida.

The $15 MW will prevail in Nebraska and marijuana wins in all 5 states with referendums.

We have the Devils Lettuce on the ballot here in ND but I am not sure it prevails. The constitutional amendment (which is how it is being put forth) was written a bit lax (or maybe odd is a better choice of words). We rejected recreational usage back in 2018 by a 59% to 40% margin. The 2018 measure was a free for all measure, this one has a bit more control. Will it be enough, I am not sure. It will be close that I know.

Personally I am still not happy with the verbiage but then I am extremely picky when it comes to these topics, as I have seen first hand what a poorly written bill becomes (and it ain't pretty).

[Baldy]

In a clear threat to democracy, the Donks are starting to already claim the elections in GA will be stolen.

[UNI88]

In a clear threat to democracy, the Donks are starting to already claim the elections in GA will be stolen.

Think about the will and determination of the people who have overcome the suppression to vote in record numbers.