2024 elections Congressional & State

[BDKJMU]

We have the 2024 Primary thread, but that's really for POTUS. Thought should have a separate one for Congressional and state.

[dbackjon]

Debbie Stebenow, D-Michigan, has announced her retirement after her term is up - open US Senate seat in 2024

[BDKJMU]

Senate
2020 election: 35 seats up for election, 21 held by republicans, 14 by democrats, so democrats had a clear advantage here.

2024 election: 33 seats up for election, 10 held by republicans, 23 by democrats, so republicans have a clear advantage here. This includes democrat held seats in solid red WV, OH, and MT, and in battleground AZ, MI (open seat) and NV. Conks would need to gain 1 or 2 seats (depending on POTUS election) to gain control of Senate.

Announced retirements/open seats:
-Mike Braun, (R) Indiana. Announced 11/30/22 he is running for Governor of IN in 2024. Seat should stay red.
-Debbie Stabenow (D) Michigan, seat she has held since 2000.
https://news.yahoo.com/stabenow-exit-ad ... 13291.html

Below seats up for election with:
-year elected to Senate
-last election margin of victory (2018, blue wave year).
Bolded what I think could be competitive/potential flips as things stand now. Will change over the next 22 months as more announce aren't running for re-election, what happens with any primaries, what happens nationally, including the POTUS race.

Democrat:
-Dianne Feinstein (CA) 1992, 8.4
-Christopher Murphy (CT) 2012, 20.2
-Thomas Carper (DE) 2000, 22.2
-Mazie Hirono (HI) 2012, 42.4
-Elizabeth Warren (MA) 2012, 24.1
-Benjamin Cardin (MD) 2006, 34.6
-Debbie Stabenow (MI) 2000, 6.5 (Open seat, retiring (battleground state)).
-Amy Klobuchar (MN) 2006, 24.1
-Jon Tester (MT) 2006, 3.5 (Solid red state)
-Robert Menendez (NJ) 2006, 11.2
-Martin Heinrich (NM) 2012, 23.6
-Jacky Rosen (NV) 2018, 5 (Battleground state)
-Kirsten Gillibrand (NY) 2010, 34
-Sherrod Brown (OH) 2006, 6.8 (Red state)
-Robert Casey (PA) 2006, 13.1
-Sheldon Whitehouse (RI) 2006, 23.1
-Tim Kaine (VA) 2012, 16
-Maria Cantwell (WA) 2000, 16.8
-Tammy Baldwin (WI) 2012,10.8
-Joe Manchin (WV) 2010, 3.3 (DEEP RED state)

Independents (all caucus with democrats):
-Kyrsten Sinema (AZ) 2018, 2.4 (battleground state)
-Angus King (ME) 2012, 19.1
-Bernard Sanders (VT) 2006, 39.9

Republicans:
-Rick Scott (FL) 2018, 0.2 (Florida red state now, maybe solid red)
-Mike Braun (IN) 2018, 5.9 (Open seat, running for Gov)
-Josh Hawley (MO) 2018, 5.8
-Roger Wicker (MS) 2006, 19
-Kevin Cramer (ND) 2018, 10.8
-Deb Fischer (NE) 2012, 19.1
-Marsha Blackburn (TN) 2018,10.8
-Ted Cruz (TX) 2012, 2.6
-Mitt Romney (UT) 2018, 31.7
-John Barrasso (WY) 2006, 36.9
https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_S ... ions,_2024

I guess FL vs Scott would be the donks best chance at a flip, but I really don't think the donks will have much of a chance there. Yeah, Scott only won 2018 by the skin of his teeth .2%, but that was a blue wave year where Desantis only won by .4%. 2022 Desantis won by 19.4%, as FL has gone from purple to solid red.

Sure Cruz only beat 'Beto' by 2.6 in 2018, but again that was a blue wave election. We'll have to see who the donks put up as to whether or not that is a competitive race.

PA and WI battleground states, but I don't see republicans being able to knock off democrat incumbents in Casey and Baldwin.

[dbackjon]

Best pickup chances for the GOP:

MT
WV
OH
MI
AZ

Not really any at the moment for the Dems, but crazier things have happened. Some will depend on the GOP candidate - Democrats have won seats in Indiana and Missouri when the GOP ran loons.

[JohnStOnge]

Best pickup chances for the GOP:

MT
WV
OH
MI
AZ

Not really any at the moment for the Dems, but crazier things have happened. Some will depend on the GOP candidate - Democrats have won seats in Indiana and Missouri when the GOP ran loons.

There is also about to be a period during which the impacts of putting Republicans in control of the House will be realized. There is potential for them to do some pretty dramatic things that will impact the Republican brand significantly. Potentially things like failing to increase the debt limit and shutting down the government. I guess it's possible such things might be popular but I think it likely that they will not be.

I think it's possible that they are about to really impale themselves and hurt the chances of Republicans running in Senate races in the process. We'll see what happens.

Seriously. It has become apparent over the past few days that there are some real nut jobs on the Republican side in the House. I mean, I kind of knew it before. But it has become REALLY apparent over the past few days.

[BDKJMU]

Best pickup chances for the GOP:

MT
WV
OH
MI
AZ

Not really any at the moment for the Dems, but crazier things have happened. Some will depend on the GOP candidate - Democrats have won seats in Indiana and Missouri when the GOP ran loons.

There is also about to be a period during which the impacts of putting Republicans in control of the House will be realized. There is potential for them to do some pretty dramatic things that will impact the Republican brand significantly. Potentially things like failing to increase the debt limit and shutting down the government. I guess it's possible such things might be popular but I think it likely that they will not be.

I think it's possible that they are about to really impale themselves and hurt the chances of Republicans running in Senate races in the process. We'll see what happens.

Seriously. It has become apparent over the past few days that there are some real nut jobs on the Republican side in the House. I mean, I kind of knew it before. But it has become REALLY apparent over the past few days.

That’s 2 separate things.

As far as the 2024 budget goes, spending bills originate with the House. IF the R controlled House passes a budget with cuts & spending caps that is balanced, and the D controlled Senate & Biden refuse to pass it, and the govt shuts down in Oct, that’s not the Republicans shutting down the govt.

[dbackjon]

There is also about to be a period during which the impacts of putting Republicans in control of the House will be realized. There is potential for them to do some pretty dramatic things that will impact the Republican brand significantly. Potentially things like failing to increase the debt limit and shutting down the government. I guess it's possible such things might be popular but I think it likely that they will not be.

I think it's possible that they are about to really impale themselves and hurt the chances of Republicans running in Senate races in the process. We'll see what happens.

Seriously. It has become apparent over the past few days that there are some real nut jobs on the Republican side in the House. I mean, I kind of knew it before. But it has become REALLY apparent over the past few days.

That’s 2 separate things.

As far as the 2024 budget goes, spending bills originate with the House. IF the R controlled House passes a budget with cuts & spending caps that is balanced, and the D controlled Senate & Biden refuse to pass it, and the govt shuts down in Oct, that’s not the Republicans shutting down the govt.

If the GOP House passes a bill with Soc Securiy, Medicare and other the Draconian cuts the Anti-American Fascist extremists want to, it most certainly will be on the GOP.

[UNI88]

That’s 2 separate things.

As far as the 2024 budget goes, spending bills originate with the House. IF the R controlled House passes a budget with cuts & spending caps that is balanced, and the D controlled Senate & Biden refuse to pass it, and the govt shuts down in Oct, that’s not the Republicans shutting down the govt.

If the GOP House passes a bill with Soc Securiy, Medicare and other the Draconian cuts the Anti-American Fascist extremists want to, it most certainly will be on the GOP.

Kind of like how the Anti-American Marxist extremists passing the oxymoronic Inflation Reduction Act was on the Donks?

Social Security needs to be reformed. It's a Ponzi scheme that relies on revenue from current workers to pay retirees their benefits. The problems that creates are coming to a head as Boomers retire and there aren't enough workers contributing to cover their costs. Social Security should be truly self funding.

Republicans Signal Cuts To Social Security, Medicare With New House Majority

The Republican Study Committee proposed a budget for fiscal 2023 that would gradually increase the eligibility ages for Social Security and Medicare, and change the Social Security benefit formula for people 54 and younger, while not changing it for people closer to receiving benefits.

The devil is in the details but on the surface this isn't unreasonable.

[kalm]

If the GOP House passes a bill with Soc Securiy, Medicare and other the Draconian cuts the Anti-American Fascist extremists want to, it most certainly will be on the GOP.

Kind of like how the Anti-American Marxist extremists passing the oxymoronic Inflation Reduction Act was on the Donks?

Social Security needs to be reformed. It's a Ponzi scheme that relies on revenue from current workers to pay retirees their benefits. The problems that creates are coming to a head as Boomers retire and there aren't enough workers contributing to cover their costs. Social Security should be truly self funding.

Republicans Signal Cuts To Social Security, Medicare With New House Majority

The Republican Study Committee proposed a budget for fiscal 2023 that would gradually increase the eligibility ages for Social Security and Medicare, and change the Social Security benefit formula for people 54 and younger, while not changing it for people closer to receiving benefits.

The devil is in the details but on the surface this isn't unreasonable.

Medicare needs to go down in age.

But hey! We could always just have more poor elderly folks that rely on other forms of government assistance.

Let’s eat Grandma!

[UNI88]

Kind of like how the Anti-American Marxist extremists passing the oxymoronic Inflation Reduction Act was on the Donks?

Social Security needs to be reformed. It's a Ponzi scheme that relies on revenue from current workers to pay retirees their benefits. The problems that creates are coming to a head as Boomers retire and there aren't enough workers contributing to cover their costs. Social Security should be truly self funding.

Republicans Signal Cuts To Social Security, Medicare With New House Majority

The devil is in the details but on the surface this isn't unreasonable.

Medicare needs to go down in age.

But hey! We could always just have more poor elderly folks that rely on other forms of government assistance.

Let’s eat Grandma!

Did I mention Medicare?

I'm not opposed to a single-payer healthcare insurance system but the devil is in the details on that as well. I don't support just copying a European system. We can develop a system that works better for the US than a European systems or Obamination that is the Affordable Care Act.

[kalm]

Medicare needs to go down in age.

But hey! We could always just have more poor elderly folks that rely on other forms of government assistance.

Let’s eat Grandma!

Did I mention Medicare?

I'm not opposed to a single-payer healthcare insurance system but the devil is in the details on that as well. I don't support just copying a European system. We can develop a system that works better for the US than a European systems or Obamination that is the Affordable Care Act.

Dback did in the post you were relying to but it didn’t copy his quote over.

With you Medicare but the prophet motive for insurance and pharma are huge hurdles.

[dbackjon]

If the GOP House passes a bill with Soc Securiy, Medicare and other the Draconian cuts the Anti-American Fascist extremists want to, it most certainly will be on the GOP.

Kind of like how the Anti-American Marxist extremists passing the oxymoronic Inflation Reduction Act was on the Donks?

Social Security needs to be reformed. It's a Ponzi scheme that relies on revenue from current workers to pay retirees their benefits. The problems that creates are coming to a head as Boomers retire and there aren't enough workers contributing to cover their costs. Social Security should be truly self funding.

Republicans Signal Cuts To Social Security, Medicare With New House Majority

The Republican Study Committee proposed a budget for fiscal 2023 that would gradually increase the eligibility ages for Social Security and Medicare, and change the Social Security benefit formula for people 54 and younger, while not changing it for people closer to receiving benefits.

The devil is in the details but on the surface this isn't unreasonable.

LOL - the IRA was common sense legislation supported by the American People.

SS can be financed by raising the cap on income taxed, and by including more income that ordinary. Have a meager pension for all citizens is the least we can do. Another backwards area that the US trails most civilized countries in.

[UNI88]

Kind of like how the Anti-American Marxist extremists passing the oxymoronic Inflation Reduction Act was on the Donks?

Social Security needs to be reformed. It's a Ponzi scheme that relies on revenue from current workers to pay retirees their benefits. The problems that creates are coming to a head as Boomers retire and there aren't enough workers contributing to cover their costs. Social Security should be truly self funding.

Republicans Signal Cuts To Social Security, Medicare With New House Majority

The devil is in the details but on the surface this isn't unreasonable.

LOL - the IRA was common sense legislation supported by the American People.

SS can be financed by raising the cap on income taxed, and by including more income that ordinary. Have a meager pension for all citizens is the least we can do. Another backwards area that the US trails most civilized countries in.

We disagree. It's about priorities. I've taken responsibility for my own retirement and forgone new cars, the latest iPhone, 72" TVs, eating out frequently, etc. to fund it. Anything I get from SS will be icing on the cake which is how it should be.

If you want to raise the income cap then you should raise the benefit cap as well so that people who are paying more in, get more out. People should get out what they paid in plus interest rather than depending on others to fund their retirements.

[kalm]

LOL - the IRA was common sense legislation supported by the American People.

SS can be financed by raising the cap on income taxed, and by including more income that ordinary. Have a meager pension for all citizens is the least we can do. Another backwards area that the US trails most civilized countries in.

We disagree. It's about priorities. I've taken responsibility for my own retirement and forgone new cars, the latest iPhone, 72" TVs, eating out frequently, etc. to fund it. Anything I get from SS will be icing on the cake which is how it should be.

If you want to raise the income cap then you should raise the benefit cap as well so that people who are paying more in, get more out. People should get out what they paid in plus interest rather than depending on others to fund their retirements.

As everyone should but we know that isn’t reality whether they need to or not. Higher standard of living also creates demand there’s an economic benefit for businesses who make money off of senior dollars.

The libertarian approach looks good on paper. SS is a small price to pay for capitalism.

[UNI88]

We disagree. It's about priorities. I've taken responsibility for my own retirement and forgone new cars, the latest iPhone, 72" TVs, eating out frequently, etc. to fund it. Anything I get from SS will be icing on the cake which is how it should be.

If you want to raise the income cap then you should raise the benefit cap as well so that people who are paying more in, get more out. People should get out what they paid in plus interest rather than depending on others to fund their retirements.

As everyone should but we know that isn’t reality whether they need to or not. Higher standard of living also creates demand there’s an economic benefit for businesses who make money off of senior dollars.

The libertarian approach looks good on paper. SS is a small price to pay for capitalism.

Where did I say I was for getting rid of SS?

So we just print more money? To hell with the deficit, it will never catch up with us. Short sighted thinking like that is a greater threat to this republic than trump ever was.

[kalm]

As everyone should but we know that isn’t reality whether they need to or not. Higher standard of living also creates demand there’s an economic benefit for businesses who make money off of senior dollars.

The libertarian approach looks good on paper. SS is a small price to pay for capitalism.

Where did I say I was for getting rid of SS?

So we just print more money? To hell with the deficit, it will never catch up with us. Short sighted thinking like that is a greater threat to this republic than trump ever was.

Sorry you didn’t.

Your last sentence…lol.

[UNI88]

Where did I say I was for getting rid of SS?

So we just print more money? To hell with the deficit, it will never catch up with us. Short sighted thinking like that is a greater threat to this republic than trump ever was.

Sorry you didn’t.

Your last sentence…lol.

I at you clutching your pearls about how great a threat trump allegedly was to the republic.

If we don't do something about it, there will come a time when this country chokes on it's debt. People will wonder how we could have been so naïve and stupid to not see it coming. I might be dead by then but I worry about my kids.

[dbackjon]

We disagree. It's about priorities. I've taken responsibility for my own retirement and forgone new cars, the latest iPhone, 72" TVs, eating out frequently, etc. to fund it. Anything I get from SS will be icing on the cake which is how it should be.

If you want to raise the income cap then you should raise the benefit cap as well so that people who are paying more in, get more out. People should get out what they paid in plus interest rather than depending on others to fund their retirements.

As everyone should but we know that isn’t reality whether they need to or not. Higher standard of living also creates demand there’s an economic benefit for businesses who make money off of senior dollars.

The libertarian approach looks good on paper. SS is a small price to pay for capitalism.

Agreed. As a society we have an obligation to take care of the less fortunate. Some of their own doing, but most not.

[UNI88]

As everyone should but we know that isn’t reality whether they need to or not. Higher standard of living also creates demand there’s an economic benefit for businesses who make money off of senior dollars.

The libertarian approach looks good on paper. SS is a small price to pay for capitalism.

Agreed. As a society we have an obligation to take care of the less fortunate. Some of their own doing, but most not.

We should be taking care of the less fortunate but there is a difference between the less fortunate and the willfully poor. I don't consider someone with a Tahoe, 72" TV and the latest iPhone to be less fortunate. They chose short-term gratification and it isn't society's responsibility to bail them out.

If you are able to work and choose not to, you are not less fortunate. If you're working but choose to buy luxury goods rather than saving for the future, you are not less fortunate. If you have a low income job(s) and have lots of children because you don't use birth control, you are not less fortunate. If you choose to work at a low-wage job rather than going to school or learning a trade, you are not less fortunate. Life is about choices and those choices have consequences.

I moved 2,000 miles away from my home and my kids after my divorce to make a living. I don't think I'm being unreasonable to ask others to make sacrifices to make a living and save for their future.

[Winterborn]

Agreed. As a society we have an obligation to take care of the less fortunate. Some of their own doing, but most not.

We should be taking care of the less fortunate but there is a difference between the less fortunate and the willfully poor. I don't consider someone with a Tahoe, 72" TV and the latest iPhone to be less fortunate. They chose short-term gratification and it isn't society's responsibility to bail them out.

If you are able to work and choose not to, you are not less fortunate. If you're working but choose to buy luxury goods rather than saving for the future, you are not less fortunate. If you have a low income job(s) and have lots of children because you don't use birth control, you are not less fortunate. If you choose to work at a low-wage job rather than going to school or learning a trade, you are not less fortunate. Life is about choices and those choices have consequences.

I moved 2,000 miles away from my home and my kids after my divorce to make a living. I don't think I'm being unreasonable to ask others to make sacrifices to make a living and save for their future.

Yup.

There is a big difference in those that cannot take care of themselves and those that chose not to. For that chose not to, well, in the words of Captain John Smith: "He that will not worke, shall not eate."

[BDKJMU]

Maybe it will be different the 3rd time...

[houndawg]

Senate
2020 election: 35 seats up for election, 21 held by republicans, 14 by democrats, so democrats had a clear advantage here.

2024 election: 33 seats up for election, 10 held by republicans, 23 by democrats, so republicans have a clear advantage here. This includes democrat held seats in solid red WV, OH, and MT, and in battleground AZ, MI (open seat) and NV. Conks would need to gain 1 or 2 seats (depending on POTUS election) to gain control of Senate.

Announced retirements/open seats:
-Mike Braun, (R) Indiana. Announced 11/30/22 he is running for Governor of IN in 2024. Seat should stay red.
-Debbie Stabenow (D) Michigan, seat she has held since 2000.
https://news.yahoo.com/stabenow-exit-ad ... 13291.html

Below seats up for election with:
-year elected to Senate
-last election margin of victory (2018, blue wave year).
Bolded what I think could be competitive/potential flips as things stand now. Will change over the next 22 months as more announce aren't running for re-election, what happens with any primaries, what happens nationally, including the POTUS race.

Democrat:
-Dianne Feinstein (CA) 1992, 8.4
-Christopher Murphy (CT) 2012, 20.2
-Thomas Carper (DE) 2000, 22.2
-Mazie Hirono (HI) 2012, 42.4
-Elizabeth Warren (MA) 2012, 24.1
-Benjamin Cardin (MD) 2006, 34.6
-Debbie Stabenow (MI) 2000, 6.5 (Open seat, retiring (battleground state)).
-Amy Klobuchar (MN) 2006, 24.1
-Jon Tester (MT) 2006, 3.5 (Solid red state)
-Robert Menendez (NJ) 2006, 11.2
-Martin Heinrich (NM) 2012, 23.6
-Jacky Rosen (NV) 2018, 5 (Battleground state)
-Kirsten Gillibrand (NY) 2010, 34
-Sherrod Brown (OH) 2006, 6.8 (Red state)
-Robert Casey (PA) 2006, 13.1
-Sheldon Whitehouse (RI) 2006, 23.1
-Tim Kaine (VA) 2012, 16
-Maria Cantwell (WA) 2000, 16.8
-Tammy Baldwin (WI) 2012,10.8
-Joe Manchin (WV) 2010, 3.3 (DEEP RED state)

Independents (all caucus with democrats):
-Kyrsten Sinema (AZ) 2018, 2.4 (battleground state)
-Angus King (ME) 2012, 19.1
-Bernard Sanders (VT) 2006, 39.9

Republicans:
-Rick Scott (FL) 2018, 0.2 (Florida red state now, maybe solid red)
-Mike Braun (IN) 2018, 5.9 (Open seat, running for Gov)
-Josh Hawley (MO) 2018, 5.8
-Roger Wicker (MS) 2006, 19
-Kevin Cramer (ND) 2018, 10.8
-Deb Fischer (NE) 2012, 19.1
-Marsha Blackburn (TN) 2018,10.8
-Ted Cruz (TX) 2012, 2.6
-Mitt Romney (UT) 2018, 31.7
-John Barrasso (WY) 2006, 36.9
https://ballotpedia.org/United_States_S ... ions,_2024

I guess FL vs Scott would be the donks best chance at a flip, but I really don't think the donks will have much of a chance there. Yeah, Scott only won 2018 by the skin of his teeth .2%, but that was a blue wave year where Desantis only won by .4%. 2022 Desantis won by 19.4%, as FL has gone from purple to solid red.

Sure Cruz only beat 'Beto' by 2.6 in 2018, but again that was a blue wave election. We'll have to see who the donks put up as to whether or not that is a competitive race.

PA and WI battleground states, but I don't see republicans being able to knock off democrat incumbents in Casey and Baldwin.

Red tsunami!

two years is a geological epoch in politics

[BDKJMU]

Schiff joins donk CA Rep. Katie Porter in announcing running in the 2024 race for Feinstein’s seat. Weird- I don’t see where the 89 yr old Feinstein, 89, currently the oldest US Senator in office, and the 6th oldest ever, has announced she’s retiring, but I guess given her age, that’s obvious she’s not going to serve from age 91 to 97. That would put her as 2nd oldest ever behind Strom Thurmond, who made it to 100 in office..

[houndawg]

If the GOP House passes a bill with Soc Securiy, Medicare and other the Draconian cuts the Anti-American Fascist extremists want to, it most certainly will be on the GOP.

Kind of like how the Anti-American Marxist extremists passing the oxymoronic Inflation Reduction Act was on the Donks?

Social Security needs to be reformed. It's a Ponzi scheme that relies on revenue from current workers to pay retirees their benefits. The problems that creates are coming to a head as Boomers retire and there aren't enough workers contributing to cover their costs. Social Security should be truly self funding.

Republicans Signal Cuts To Social Security, Medicare With New House Majority

The Republican Study Committee proposed a budget for fiscal 2023 that would gradually increase the eligibility ages for Social Security and Medicare, and change the Social Security benefit formula for people 54 and younger, while not changing it for people closer to receiving benefits.

The devil is in the details but on the surface this isn't unreasonable.

No, it isn't. Remove the salary cap for contribution and all is well.

[BDKJMU]

Kind of like how the Anti-American Marxist extremists passing the oxymoronic Inflation Reduction Act was on the Donks?

Social Security needs to be reformed. It's a Ponzi scheme that relies on revenue from current workers to pay retirees their benefits. The problems that creates are coming to a head as Boomers retire and there aren't enough workers contributing to cover their costs. Social Security should be truly self funding.

Republicans Signal Cuts To Social Security, Medicare With New House Majority



The devil is in the details but on the surface this isn't unreasonable.

No, it isn't. Remove the salary cap for contribution and all is well.

Wrong. What you are paid out is based on what you pay in. So removing the cap would do nothing for insolvency.

And if the law was rewritten so the FICA tax cap was removed, but benefits were still capped, then that would make it nothing more than a socialist redistribution of wealth, in addition to the Ponzi scheme that it is.