Trump vs. Biden Part 2

[UNI88]

We’ll see won’t we. Bookmarked for posterity.

The female vote is a majority by a couple of points, but the gender gap is even bigger among men. Trump is in FAR better shape 7 months months out than he was in 2020 and 2016, leading in almost every poll for the 7 swing states that matter, and FWIW leading in the national polls too. And Biden probably has to win the popular by 4+ points to win the EC.

Biden is doing worse among every demographic than he was was in 2020, INCLUDING women.
https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-bi ... ion-2024-3

Again, the biggest wildcard is the presence of multiple candidates on the ballot in the battleground states. It doesn't take a lot of votes to flip GA, PA, MI, etc. Who ends up defecting to those alternate candidates could end up deciding the national picture.

I think a major factor will be people voting against expectations. How many people in rural Georgia, MIchigan, etc. will vote against trump after not saying anything to pollsters or their social circle about not liking him because of fear of pushback? How many people in Atlanta, Detroit, etc. will vote against biden after not saying anything to pollsters or their social circle about not liking him because of fear of pushback?

I think there are a lot more of those people than believed. Will they vote with their conscience or will they vote as expected?

[GannonFan]

Again, the biggest wildcard is the presence of multiple candidates on the ballot in the battleground states. It doesn't take a lot of votes to flip GA, PA, MI, etc. Who ends up defecting to those alternate candidates could end up deciding the national picture.

I think a major factor will be people voting against expectations. How many people in rural Georgia, MIchigan, etc. will vote against trump after not saying anything to pollsters or their social circle about not liking him because of fear of pushback? How many people in Atlanta, Detroit, etc. will vote against biden after not saying anything to pollsters or their social circle about not liking him because of fear of pushback?

I think there are a lot more of those people than believed. Will they vote with their conscience or will they vote as expected?

Or vote at all?

[UNI88]

I think a major factor will be people voting against expectations. How many people in rural Georgia, MIchigan, etc. will vote against trump after not saying anything to pollsters or their social circle about not liking him because of fear of pushback? How many people in Atlanta, Detroit, etc. will vote against biden after not saying anything to pollsters or their social circle about not liking him because of fear of pushback?

I think there are a lot more of those people than believed. Will they vote with their conscience or will they vote as expected?

Or vote at all?

That too.

Lots of interesting dynamics and variables at play in this election. I'm not sure who wins but I hope the losing party controls the House or Senate.

[houndawg]

Thats why you're going to lose.

If you had the benefit of 40 years of marriage the silence is what would be making you nervous.

edit: I'm referring to the female vote more broadly than just the issue of abortion - I just don't see an adjudicated sexual abuser/pussy grabber/rapist drawing a majority of the female vote, and the female vote is the majority of voters.

We’ll see won’t we. Bookmarked for posterity.

The female vote is a majority by a couple of points, but the gender gap is even bigger among men. Trump is in FAR better shape 7 months months out than he was in 2020 and 2016, leading in almost every poll for the 7 swing states that matter, and FWIW leading in the national polls too. And Biden probably has to win the popular by 4+ points to win the EC.

Biden is doing worse among every demographic than he was was in 2020, INCLUDING women.
https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-bi ... ion-2024-3

"I killed Roe."

[BDKJMU]

We’ll see won’t we. Bookmarked for posterity.

The female vote is a majority by a couple of points, but the gender gap is even bigger among men. Trump is in FAR better shape 7 months months out than he was in 2020 and 2016, leading in almost every poll for the 7 swing states that matter, and FWIW leading in the national polls too. And Biden probably has to win the popular by 4+ points to win the EC.

Biden is doing worse among every demographic than he was was in 2020, INCLUDING women.
https://www.businessinsider.com/poll-bi ... ion-2024-3

Again, the biggest wildcard is the presence of multiple candidates on the ballot in the battleground states. It doesn't take a lot of votes to flip GA, PA, MI, etc. Who ends up defecting to those alternate candidates could end up deciding the national picture.

True. But a much larger percentage of the conk base strongly supports Trump than the democrat base strongly supports Biden. A larger percent of donks will consider 3rd party than conks. The more 3rd party candidates the better for Trump.

[kalm]

Again, the biggest wildcard is the presence of multiple candidates on the ballot in the battleground states. It doesn't take a lot of votes to flip GA, PA, MI, etc. Who ends up defecting to those alternate candidates could end up deciding the national picture.

True. But a much larger percentage of the conk base strongly supports Trump than the democrat base strongly supports Biden. A larger percent of donks will consider 3rd party than conks. The more 3rd party candidates the better for Trump.

Define base and large percentage.

[BDKJMU]

True. But a much larger percentage of the conk base strongly supports Trump than the democrat base strongly supports Biden. A larger percent of donks will consider 3rd party than conks. The more 3rd party candidates the better for Trump.

Define base and large percentage.

More democrats who would otherwise vote for Biden will vote 3rd party than republicans who would otherwise vote for Trump.

Simplified: Multiple 3rd party candidates are going to pull more votes from Biden than Trump.

Of course this is an opinion that can’t be proven or disproven until the election.

[UNI88]

Define base and large percentage.

More democrats who would otherwise vote for Biden will vote 3rd party than republicans who would otherwise vote for Trump.

Simplified: Multiple 3rd party candidates are going to pull more votes from Biden than Trump.

Of course this is an opinion that can’t be proven or disproven until the election.

It also depends on the 3rd party. A Libertarian candidate will pull more Republican votes while a Green candidate will pull more Democratic votes.

Does a "much larger percentage of the conk base strongly supports Trump" because they've chased away moderates, neo-cons, fiscal conservatives, etc?

[BDKJMU]

Could have put this in the 2024 primary thread, but may as well here. Couple day old news- Kennedy has picked his running mate.

Shanahan, 38, is a California lawyer and philanthropist who’s never held elected office. She leads Bia-Echo Foundation, an organization she founded to direct money toward issues including women’s reproductive science, criminal justice reform and environmental causes…

…Formerly married to Google co-founder Sergey Brin, Shanahan is deeply enmeshed in the Silicon Valley technology culture..

https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/politics ... r-BB1kxazw

Kennedy is to the right on:
-resonse to Covid.
-govt, big tech amd MSM censorship.
-immigration/border enforcement.

He’s way left on everything elese:
-tax & spending.
-social issues.
-environment (once wanted to jail ‘climate deniers).
-2A (he recently tried to walk back past commemts).

With his VP pick, no doubt he siphons more votes from Biden than Trump. Donks are going to be fighting tooth and nail to keep him off the ballot in GA, NC, PA, WI, MI, AZ, and NV..

[BDKJMU]

More democrats who would otherwise vote for Biden will vote 3rd party than republicans who would otherwise vote for Trump.

Simplified: Multiple 3rd party candidates are going to pull more votes from Biden than Trump.

Of course this is an opinion that can’t be proven or disproven until the election.

It also depends on the 3rd party. A Libertarian candidate will pull more Republican votes while a Green candidate will pull more Democratic votes.

Does a "much larger percentage of the conk base strongly supports Trump" because they've chased away moderates, neo-cons, fiscal conservatives, etc?

Well Kennedy is going to draw more from otherwise Biden than otherwise Trump..

[kalm]

Define base and large percentage.

More democrats who would otherwise vote for Biden will vote 3rd party than republicans who would otherwise vote for Trump.

Simplified: Multiple 3rd party candidates are going to pull more votes from Biden than Trump.

Of course this is an opinion that can’t be proven or disproven until the election.

How big is each base? How many R’s have left the party or will sit out this one out rather than vote Trump.

My guess is the Trump base is extremely energized but the size of that base has diminished.

[BDKJMU]

More democrats who would otherwise vote for Biden will vote 3rd party than republicans who would otherwise vote for Trump.

Simplified: Multiple 3rd party candidates are going to pull more votes from Biden than Trump.

Of course this is an opinion that can’t be proven or disproven until the election.

How big is each base? How many R’s have left the party or will sit out this one out rather than vote Trump.

My guess is the Trump base is extremely energized but the size of that base has diminished.

Well the Biden base isn’t energized at all.

[UNI88]

It also depends on the 3rd party. A Libertarian candidate will pull more Republican votes while a Green candidate will pull more Democratic votes.

Does a "much larger percentage of the conk base strongly supports Trump" because they've chased away moderates, neo-cons, fiscal conservatives, etc?

Well Kennedy is going to draw more from otherwise Biden than otherwise Trump..

Probably true.

Riddle me this: what does trump say if he beats biden and kennedy's candidacy plays a major role pulling biden voters in swing states?

[kalm]

How big is each base? How many R’s have left the party or will sit out this one out rather than vote Trump.

My guess is the Trump base is extremely energized but the size of that base has diminished.

Well the Biden base isn’t energized at all.

What are you basing this on?

[Caribbean Hen]

Well the Biden base isn’t energized at all.

What are you basing this on?

Joey Rottens record of failure

Actually his base is almost non existent but that doesn’t mean he might win again

Nobody knows how many new Dem voters have crossed the border with pockets lined with freebies

[UNI88]

What are you basing this on?

Joey Rottens record of failure

Actually his base is almost nonexistent but that doesn’t mean he might win again

Nobody knows how many new Dem voters have crossed the border with pockets lined with freebies

The size of biden's base is remarkably close to the number of people with functioning brainstems who support trump ...

[Caribbean Hen]

Joey Rottens record of failure

Actually his base is almost nonexistent but that doesn’t mean he might win again

Nobody knows how many new Dem voters have crossed the border with pockets lined with freebies

The size of biden's base is remarkably close to the number of people with functioning brainstems who support trump ...

No

Voting Biden just means he’s the perverted old uncle nobody likes but likes to throw cash at you so you will talk to him and listen to his lies

[kalm]

What are you basing this on?

Joey Rottens record of failure

Actually his base is almost non existent but that doesn’t mean he might win again

Nobody knows how many new Dem voters have crossed the border with pockets lined with freebies

How non-existent is it and how does that compare to the current GOP base.

Looking for numbers here.

[BDKJMU]

Immigration Is Americans’ Top Unprompted Concern
28% immigration
19% government and poor leadership, combined
14% economy in general
11% inflation
6% poverty and homelessness
4% Unifying the country
3% crime
3% Elections/Election reform/Democracy
3% Race relations/Racism
3% Abortion
3% Ethics/Moral/Religious/Family decline
3% Foreign policy/Foreign aid/Focus overseas
2% Unemployment/Jobs
2% Federal budget deficit/Federal debt
2% Wage issue
2% Healthcare
2% Education
2% Judicial system/Courts/Laws
2% War in the Middle East
2% Environment/Pollution/Climate change
https://news.gallup.com/poll/642887/inf ... cerns.aspx

[SeattleGriz]

I give you Biden Mart.

You can now check how much your grocery bill has gone up under Joey Rotten.

https://www.biden-mart.com/

[Caribbean Hen]

I give you Biden Mart.

You can now check how much your grocery bill has gone up under Joey Rotten.

https://www.biden-mart.com/

My list was up 63%

[houndawg]

What are you basing this on?

Joey Rottens record of failure

Actually his base is almost non existent but that doesn’t mean he might win again

Nobody knows how many new Dem voters have crossed the border with pockets lined with freebies

...doesn't mean he might not either.

[houndawg]

Immigration Is Americans’ Top Unprompted Concern
28% immigration
19% government and poor leadership, combined
14% economy in general
11% inflation
6% poverty and homelessness
4% Unifying the country
3% crime
3% Elections/Election reform/Democracy
3% Race relations/Racism
3% Abortion
3% Ethics/Moral/Religious/Family decline
3% Foreign policy/Foreign aid/Focus overseas
2% Unemployment/Jobs
2% Federal budget deficit/Federal debt
2% Wage issue
2% Healthcare
2% Education
2% Judicial system/Courts/Laws
2% War in the Middle East
2% Environment/Pollution/Climate change
https://news.gallup.com/poll/642887/inf ... cerns.aspx

Looks like abortion won't be an issue. Like it wasn't in Kansas

[kalm]

None of her supporters will see this.

[Caribbean Hen]

https://www.the-sun.com/money/10258102/ ... quare/amp/

CURTAIN CALL Walgreens closing another store after shutting 90 locations in same state as customers found a sign with instructions
The iconic neighborhood's pharmacy is shutting its doors