Voter Misinformation

[kalm]

Two very interesting articles on the topic with some helpful polling data from Reuters-Ipsos. Do Republican voters WANT to be misinformed?

BERKELEY – Three days after Donald Trump’s victory in this year’s US presidential election, my friend Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research tweeted: “I hate to put a lot of highly paid pundits out of business, but look at this f**king graph.” The accompanying image was an Ipsos infographic headlined: “Misinformed views on immigration, crime, the economy correlated with ballot choice.” 1

In a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken in early October, potential voters who knew or assumed that violent crime was not at or near all-time highs favored Kamala Harris by a 65-percentage-point margin, whereas those who were misinformed broke for Donald Trump by a 26-point margin. Likewise, among those who understood that inflation had declined over the past year, Harris was up by 53 points, whereas Trump was up by 19 points among the misinformed. Among those who knew that the stock market was at an all-time high, Harris was up by 20; and among those who knew that southern border crossings had declined, Harris was up by 59. 1

What are we dealing with here? Do Trump voters express misinformed beliefs about violent crime rates, the inflation rate, the stock market, and border crossings because they are Trump voters, or are they Trump voters because they truly believe these falsehoods and are genuinely fearful for their country’s future? If it is the latter, one must ask how they came to hold these false beliefs. And once we understand that, we need to figure out what to do about an information ecosystem that hoodwinked millions of people and turned our politics into a clown show.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/comme ... ng-2024-11

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/link-betwee ... ic-opinion

[Bobcat]

All lies

Just like all the sexual assault allegations on the selections that Trump HASNT MADE YET. Weird how its only one side that benefits.

[kalm]

All lies

Just like all the sexual assault allegations on the selections that Trump HASNT MADE YET. Weird how its only one side that benefits.

Oldie but a goodie…:)

[BDKJMU]

Violent crime rates are at or near all-time highs in
most major American cities. (False)

Doesn’t mean crime hasn’t risen. Also many cities now not reporting to FBI for their UCR. And it’s at a historic high under the NCVS. Also the statement said ‘major’ cities. Says nothing about mid size and small size cities, and towns where waves of illegals, TPS, and so called asylee seekers have settled.

Inflation in the U.S. has declined over the last year and is near historic averages (True)

FALSE. Inflation hasn’t declined. The rate has slowed, but it hasn’t gone negative. CPI up 21% in 3.75 years under Biden, nearly 3x of what it was under Trump. People aren’t voting based off of the last year. They are voting based off of 4.

Yes the stock market is at an all time high thanks to the betting on Trump winning and the reaction to it.

[Caribbean Hen]

Two very interesting articles on the topic with some helpful polling data from Reuters-Ipsos. Do Republican voters WANT to be misinformed?

BERKELEY – Three days after Donald Trump’s victory in this year’s US presidential election, my friend Dean Baker of the Center for Economic and Policy Research tweeted: “I hate to put a lot of highly paid pundits out of business, but look at this f**king graph.” The accompanying image was an Ipsos infographic headlined: “Misinformed views on immigration, crime, the economy correlated with ballot choice.” 1

In a Reuters/Ipsos poll taken in early October, potential voters who knew or assumed that violent crime was not at or near all-time highs favored Kamala Harris by a 65-percentage-point margin, whereas those who were misinformed broke for Donald Trump by a 26-point margin. Likewise, among those who understood that inflation had declined over the past year, Harris was up by 53 points, whereas Trump was up by 19 points among the misinformed. Among those who knew that the stock market was at an all-time high, Harris was up by 20; and among those who knew that southern border crossings had declined, Harris was up by 59. 1

What are we dealing with here? Do Trump voters express misinformed beliefs about violent crime rates, the inflation rate, the stock market, and border crossings because they are Trump voters, or are they Trump voters because they truly believe these falsehoods and are genuinely fearful for their country’s future? If it is the latter, one must ask how they came to hold these false beliefs. And once we understand that, we need to figure out what to do about an information ecosystem that hoodwinked millions of people and turned our politics into a clown show.

https://www.project-syndicate.org/comme ... ng-2024-11

https://www.ipsos.com/en-us/link-betwee ... ic-opinion

3 people murdered in Manhattan the other day by a crazed thug with a long rap sheet… the streets don’t lie

Meanwhile, Alvin Bragg is prosecuting a good samaritan veteran hero for manslaughter on one of his “safe” subway trains

[Bobcat]

Bragg is a racist and committing a hate crime by charging the mostly peaceful Penny.

[kalm]

Violent crime rates are at or near all-time highs in
most major American cities. (False)

Doesn’t mean crime hasn’t risen. Also many cities now not reporting to FBI for their UCR. And it’s at a historic high under the NCVS. Also the statement said ‘major’ cities. Says nothing about mid size and small size cities, and towns where waves of illegals, TPS, and so called asylee seekers have settled.

Inflation in the U.S. has declined over the last year and is near historic averages (True)

FALSE. Inflation hasn’t declined. The rate has slowed, but it hasn’t gone negative. CPI up 21% in 3.75 years under Biden, nearly 3x of what it was under Trump. People aren’t voting based off of the last year. They are voting based off of 4.

Yes the stock market is at an all time high thanks to the betting on Trump winning and the reaction to it.

CPI is manipulated. The articles in the OP are reality vs. perception related to part affiliation and news outlets.

Not sure where your numbers come from and I as discussed in previous threads, while inflation of certain goods is unquestionable there were multiple factors including Covid impact and price gouging. Prices, in general typically do not return back to their previous levels post-inflation.



While CPI could be up, so is consumer spending.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (refer to “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The “second” estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete source data, will be released on November 27, 2024.

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter
The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending (table 2). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both goods and services. Within goods, the leading contributors were other nondurable goods (led by prescription drugs) and motor vehicles and parts. Within services, the leading contributors were health care (led by outpatient services) as well as food services and accommodations. The increase in exports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by capital goods, excluding automotive). The increase in federal government spending was led by defense spending. The increase in imports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by capital goods, excluding automotive).

https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-dom ... e-estimate

[Caribbean Hen]

lol

due to the recent rate cuts, inflation has actually ticked back .... interesting that the rate cuts did not produce the intended results on the 30-year mortgage or short-term treasury yields as they are going up as well

credit card debt at an all-time high, Americans like our government spending money they don't have

Biden has increased the national debt faster than any President in history and his drunken spending not helping his inflation at all and ultimately that's what kicked the losing libs to the curb

[kalm]

lol

due to the recent rate cuts, inflation has actually ticked back .... interesting that the rate cuts did not produce the intended results on the 30-year mortgage or short-term treasury yields as they are going up as well

credit card debt at an all-time high, Americans like our government spending money they don't have

Biden has increased the national debt faster than any President in history and his drunken spending not helping his inflation at all and ultimately that's what kicked the losing libs to the curb

Silly kid. No one, including Trump or musk really care about spending or the debt as long as it benefits them and their cronies.

President Trump approved $8.4 trillion of new ten-year borrowing during his full term in office, or $4.8 trillion excluding the CARES Act and other COVID relief.

President Biden, in his first three years and five months in office, approved $4.3 trillion of new ten-year borrowing, or $2.2 trillion excluding the American Rescue Plan.

President Trump approved $8.8 trillion of gross new borrowing and $443 billion of deficit reduction during his full presidential term.

President Biden has so far approved $6.2 trillion of gross new borrowing and $1.9 trillion of deficit reduction

https://www.crfb.org/papers/trump-and-b ... ional-debt

[Caribbean Hen]

lol

due to the recent rate cuts, inflation has actually ticked back .... interesting that the rate cuts did not produce the intended results on the 30-year mortgage or short-term treasury yields as they are going up as well

credit card debt at an all-time high, Americans like our government spending money they don't have

Biden has increased the national debt faster than any President in history and his drunken spending not helping his inflation at all and ultimately that's what kicked the losing libs to the curb

Silly kid. No one, including Trump or musk really care about spending or the debt as long as it benefits them and their cronies.

President Trump approved $8.4 trillion of new ten-year borrowing during his full term in office, or $4.8 trillion excluding the CARES Act and other COVID relief.

President Biden, in his first three years and five months in office, approved $4.3 trillion of new ten-year borrowing, or $2.2 trillion excluding the American Rescue Plan.

President Trump approved $8.8 trillion of gross new borrowing and $443 billion of deficit reduction during his full presidential term.

President Biden has so far approved $6.2 trillion of gross new borrowing and $1.9 trillion of deficit reduction

https://www.crfb.org/papers/trump-and-b ... ional-debt

wrong

you going to defend Biden's economy after Trump beat him on ...... wait for it...... his horrible economy

add in Biden's debt he's paying on short term loans he's paying back at 5 % to fund his bloated and broke government...

Now explain why DOGE wasn't formed under Bidens watch

[BDKJMU]

Doesn’t mean crime hasn’t risen. Also many cities now not reporting to FBI for their UCR. And it’s at a historic high under the NCVS. Also the statement said ‘major’ cities. Says nothing about mid size and small size cities, and towns where waves of illegals, TPS, and so called asylee seekers have settled.


FALSE. Inflation hasn’t declined. The rate has slowed, but it hasn’t gone negative. CPI up 21% in 3.75 years under Biden, nearly 3x of what it was under Trump. People aren’t voting based off of the last year. They are voting based off of 4.

Yes the stock market is at an all time high thanks to the betting on Trump winning and the reaction to it.

CPI is manipulated. The articles in the OP are reality vs. perception related to part affiliation and news outlets.

Not sure where your numbers come from and I as discussed in previous threads, while inflation of certain goods is unquestionable there were multiple factors including Covid impact and price gouging. Prices, in general typically do not return back to their previous levels post-inflation.



While CPI could be up, so is consumer spending.

Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 2.8 percent in the third quarter of 2024 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 3.0 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (refer to “Source Data for the Advance Estimate” on page 2). The “second” estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete source data, will be released on November 27, 2024.

Real GDP: Percent change from preceding quarter
The increase in real GDP primarily reflected increases in consumer spending, exports, and federal government spending (table 2). Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.

The increase in consumer spending reflected increases in both goods and services. Within goods, the leading contributors were other nondurable goods (led by prescription drugs) and motor vehicles and parts. Within services, the leading contributors were health care (led by outpatient services) as well as food services and accommodations. The increase in exports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by capital goods, excluding automotive). The increase in federal government spending was led by defense spending. The increase in imports primarily reflected an increase in goods (led by capital goods, excluding automotive).

https://www.bea.gov/news/2024/gross-dom ... e-estimate

lol no there you go again with your previously debunked ‘inflation is caused by price gouging’, and failure to mention the # 1 cause by far: GOVT. Excessive govt spending and policy.

Spending: Trump threw close to an extra trillion on his way out the door, and Biden threw in 4+ trillion on his way in (Covid + so called infrastructure bill + inflation creation act).
Policy: Paying people extended enhanced unemployment for up to 1.5 years not to work.

Without those 2 things we would have had little inflation.
And wages real wages 2021-2024 are still down.

[kalm]

Silly kid. No one, including Trump or musk really care about spending or the debt as long as it benefits them and their cronies.



https://www.crfb.org/papers/trump-and-b ... ional-debt

wrong

you going to defend Biden's economy after Trump beat him on ...... wait for it...... his horrible economy

add in Biden's debt he's paying on short term loans he's paying back at 5 % to fund his bloated and broke government...

Now explain why DOGE wasn't formed under Bidens watch

I’m not defending Biden’s debt. Just posting some stats anbd suggesting there’s far more behind the not to mention long term consequences (both negative and positive). Our difference lies in reality and assigning blame. I have deep criticism for many of the Dems economic policies as well as the GOP. You lack the honesty to criticize your own side.

I don’t trust DOGE to be much other than advantageous to Musk and Trump’s cronies. The very acronym is a giant tell.

But we’ll see. I’m fine with being wrong if it proves effective.

[Caribbean Hen]

Bragg is a racist and committing a hate crime by charging the mostly peaceful Penny.

Day 20 of this political persecution of a Veteran in the city where the real criminals roam the streets and are out on bond the next day so they can go hunt and carve up innocents

insanity

[UNI88]

Silly kid. No one, including Trump or musk really care about spending or the debt as long as it benefits them and their cronies.

https://www.crfb.org/papers/trump-and-b ... ional-debt

wrong

you going to defend Biden's economy after Trump beat him on ...... wait for it...... his horrible economy

add in Biden's debt he's paying on short term loans he's paying back at 5 % to fund his bloated and broke government...

Now explain why DOGE wasn't formed under Bidens watch

Now explain why DOGE wasn't formed in trump's first term?

What happened to the debt during trump's first term? Why should I trust that things will be different this time?

[Caribbean Hen]

wrong

you going to defend Biden's economy after Trump beat him on ...... wait for it...... his horrible economy

add in Biden's debt he's paying on short term loans he's paying back at 5 % to fund his bloated and broke government...

Now explain why DOGE wasn't formed under Bidens watch

Now explain why DOGE wasn't formed in trump's first term?

What happened to the debt during trump's first term? Why should I trust that things will be different this time?

I don’t believe for a second Trump cares about the debt

But a lot of conservatives still do and Trump did care enough to start the DOGE to tackle government waste, something Dim Biden and Harris think is just fine

[Bobcat]

This thread is a fucking hate crime.

CH and BDKJMU are SAVAGE!

[kalm]

Now explain why DOGE wasn't formed in trump's first term?

What happened to the debt during trump's first term? Why should I trust that things will be different this time?

I don’t believe for a second Trump cares about the debt.

But a lot of conservatives still do….

Is the underlying point of this thread.

[kalm]

This thread is a fucking hate crime.

CH and BDKJMU are SAVAGE!

I love that you’ve become the head of cheer! Go get ‘em Tiger!

[UNI88]

Now explain why DOGE wasn't formed in trump's first term?

What happened to the debt during trump's first term? Why should I trust that things will be different this time?

I don’t believe for a second Trump cares about the debt

But a lot of conservatives still do and Trump did care enough to start the DOGE to tackle government waste, something Dim Biden and Harris think is just fine

trump is a populist not a conservative.

Making the government more efficient is a good idea. I don't trust elon and vivek to leave bias out and focus on real efficiency.

A Doge belongs in Venice.

[GannonFan]

Kalm's kinda in that weird bubble of folks on the left now who want to explain away the past election by just assuming that everyone who voted for Trump is a stupid rube. The article I'm attaching here could've been written by kalm and is more of the same - the economy was great, but dumb people didn't know it. The immigration problem wasn't really too bad, but dumb people didn't know it. The world is in great shape right now and it's never been more peaceful, but dumb people didn't know it.

And it's easier for them to think that rather than contend with the reality. And the reality is that this was a particularly bad 4 years of a Biden administration, and the candidate replacing him couldn't think of a single thing she would've done differently. Saying that inflation is close to back to a normal level and everything is fine completely ignores the fact that real wages, the thing that voters really care about at the end of the day, are still down from four years ago, or at best, just level. But for 4 years people couldn't get by as much with their wages as they had before. That's the real economic issue and there was nothing but silence from the Dems, and at worst sentiments like this article and kalm's that people are too stupid to realize things are great. Same goes for immigration, it was first reported to just be a seasonal surge, and then it lasted 4 years (or 16 seasons). But again, people are probably too dumb to understand this isn't really a problem and just fine.

People had two choices in this election - the crazy, morally corrupt dude who was President before when, prior to the pandemic, people could afford most things, or the propped up candidate even the Dems couldn't vote for back in the 2020 nomination circuit who wanted to gaslight everyone that everything was great and we just needed to keep running back these past 4 years. It's not a shock, in that duopoly, that more people voted for the former than the latter. It wasn't overwhelming, but it was more than enough to win an election. Calling people stupid and then expecting them to vote for you is a weird strategy the left should part with before the next elections.


https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/50 ... ninformed/

[Bobcat]

"Immigration was not a problem" - Dead American women

[kalm]

Kalm's kinda in that weird bubble of folks on the left now who want to explain away the past election by just assuming that everyone who voted for Trump is a stupid rube. The article I'm attaching here could've been written by kalm and is more of the same - the economy was great, but dumb people didn't know it. The immigration problem wasn't really too bad, but dumb people didn't know it. The world is in great shape right now and it's never been more peaceful, but dumb people didn't know it.

And it's easier for them to think that rather than contend with the reality. And the reality is that this was a particularly bad 4 years of a Biden administration, and the candidate replacing him couldn't think of a single thing she would've done differently. Saying that inflation is close to back to a normal level and everything is fine completely ignores the fact that real wages, the thing that voters really care about at the end of the day, are still down from four years ago, or at best, just level. But for 4 years people couldn't get by as much with their wages as they had before. That's the real economic issue and there was nothing but silence from the Dems, and at worst sentiments like this article and kalm's that people are too stupid to realize things are great. Same goes for immigration, it was first reported to just be a seasonal surge, and then it lasted 4 years (or 16 seasons). But again, people are probably too dumb to understand this isn't really a problem and just fine.

People had two choices in this election - the crazy, morally corrupt dude who was President before when, prior to the pandemic, people could afford most things, or the propped up candidate even the Dems couldn't vote for back in the 2020 nomination circuit who wanted to gaslight everyone that everything was great and we just needed to keep running back these past 4 years. It's not a shock, in that duopoly, that more people voted for the former than the latter. It wasn't overwhelming, but it was more than enough to win an election. Calling people stupid and then expecting them to vote for you is a weird strategy the left should part with before the next elections.


https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/50 ... ninformed/

You missed so badly on the first paragraph I didn’t bother with the rest. You usually don’t resort to bad faith arguments and selectively attacking with things like Kalm argued the economy was great. Full stop.

Maybe you just like being a contrarian. Or you’re confused. Or intellectually lazy. Or bitter about your own closely held beliefs being challenged from the left.

Trump voters weren’t all stupid rubes. Most are just highly susceptible to right wing propaganda and branding with a heavy desire to deny change and own the libs.

There are many forms of intelligence. Some Trump supporters are simply greedy and short sighted knowing fully well what Trump is. That doesn’t make them necessarily stupid or rubes.

Try to be better next time.

[UNI88]

Kalm's kinda in that weird bubble of folks on the left now who want to explain away the past election by just assuming that everyone who voted for Trump is a stupid rube. The article I'm attaching here could've been written by kalm and is more of the same - the economy was great, but dumb people didn't know it. The immigration problem wasn't really too bad, but dumb people didn't know it. The world is in great shape right now and it's never been more peaceful, but dumb people didn't know it.

And it's easier for them to think that rather than contend with the reality. And the reality is that this was a particularly bad 4 years of a Biden administration, and the candidate replacing him couldn't think of a single thing she would've done differently. Saying that inflation is close to back to a normal level and everything is fine completely ignores the fact that real wages, the thing that voters really care about at the end of the day, are still down from four years ago, or at best, just level. But for 4 years people couldn't get by as much with their wages as they had before. That's the real economic issue and there was nothing but silence from the Dems, and at worst sentiments like this article and kalm's that people are too stupid to realize things are great. Same goes for immigration, it was first reported to just be a seasonal surge, and then it lasted 4 years (or 16 seasons). But again, people are probably too dumb to understand this isn't really a problem and just fine.

People had two choices in this election - the crazy, morally corrupt dude who was President before when, prior to the pandemic, people could afford most things, or the propped up candidate even the Dems couldn't vote for back in the 2020 nomination circuit who wanted to gaslight everyone that everything was great and we just needed to keep running back these past 4 years. It's not a shock, in that duopoly, that more people voted for the former than the latter. It wasn't overwhelming, but it was more than enough to win an election. Calling people stupid and then expecting them to vote for you is a weird strategy the left should part with before the next elections.

https://thehill.com/opinion/campaign/50 ... ninformed/

You missed so badly on the first paragraph I didn’t bother with the rest. You usually don’t resort to bad faith arguments and selectively attacking with things like Kalm argued the economy was great. Full stop.

Maybe you’re just like being a contrarian. Or you’re confused. Or intellectually lazy. Or bitter about your own closely held beliefs being challenged from the left.

Trump voters weren’t all stupid rubes. Most are just highly susceptible to right wing propaganda and branding with a heavy desire to deny change and own the libs.

There are many forms of intelligence. Some Trump supporters are simply greedy and short sighted knowing fully well what Trump is. That doesn’t make them necessarily stupid or rubes.

Try to be better next time.

You've spent quite a few keystrokes trying to convince people that the biden economy hasn't been that bad.

With inflation and immigration over the last 4 years, trump should have mopped the floor with harris. The fact that he didn't tells us how much of a "crazy, morally corrupt dude" he is.

[Caribbean Hen]

You missed so badly on the first paragraph I didn’t bother with the rest. You usually don’t resort to bad faith arguments and selectively attacking with things like Kalm argued the economy was great. Full stop.

Maybe you’re just like being a contrarian. Or you’re confused. Or intellectually lazy. Or bitter about your own closely held beliefs being challenged from the left.

Trump voters weren’t all stupid rubes. Most are just highly susceptible to right wing propaganda and branding with a heavy desire to deny change and own the libs.

There are many forms of intelligence. Some Trump supporters are simply greedy and short sighted knowing fully well what Trump is. That doesn’t make them necessarily stupid or rubes.

Try to be better next time.

You've spent quite a few keystrokes trying to convince people that the biden economy hasn't been that bad.

With inflation and immigration over the last 4 years, trump should have mopped the floor with harris. The fact that he didn't tells us how much of a "crazy, morally corrupt dude" he is.

well I agree Trump should of won by more considering the brain-dead opposition... Hopefully, even more blacks and Latinos will see the evils of the Dems going forward....

[kalm]

You missed so badly on the first paragraph I didn’t bother with the rest. You usually don’t resort to bad faith arguments and selectively attacking with things like Kalm argued the economy was great. Full stop.

Maybe you’re just like being a contrarian. Or you’re confused. Or intellectually lazy. Or bitter about your own closely held beliefs being challenged from the left.

Trump voters weren’t all stupid rubes. Most are just highly susceptible to right wing propaganda and branding with a heavy desire to deny change and own the libs.

There are many forms of intelligence. Some Trump supporters are simply greedy and short sighted knowing fully well what Trump is. That doesn’t make them necessarily stupid or rubes.

Try to be better next time.

You've spent quite a few keystrokes trying to convince people that the biden economy hasn't been that bad.

With inflation and immigration over the last 4 years, trump should have mopped the floor with harris. The fact that he didn't tells us how much of a "crazy, morally corrupt dude" he is.

I’ll cop to defending the Dems more earnestly this time as Trump is a true threat. That in no way reflects on being happy about the Dems economic policies. It also doesn’t dismiss facts like compared to the rest of the advanced nations, we came out of Covid in clearly demonstrably better shape. Or that parts BBB/ infrastructure spending helped the country. If it hadn’t, you wouldn’t see so many R’s including MTG taking credit for new manufacturing facilities that have come to their district.

I’m still a progressive. Cut from the cloth of both Roosevelt’s, John Kenneth Galbraith, and Adam Smith (Not just The Wealth of Nations but also the Theory of Moral Sentiments)

As I stated numerous times, the Democratic establishment ignores economic populism at their own expense and they are as corrupt and greedy as the R’s when it comes to campaign finance. Harris even stupidly admitted during the campaign.