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Down to Elderly, Church-going Base

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009 ... ?ref=fpblg

A new analysis by Gallup, compiled from their national polling done all this year, shows just how extensive the Republican Party's drop in voter self-identification has been, with decreases in nearly every demographic.

Compared to 2001, when George W. Bush first took office as president, GOP self-identification has fallen by ten points among college graduates, nine points among those 18-29 years of age, nine points in the Midwest, six in the East, five in the West, and even four points in the South. Married people identifying as Republicans have decreased by five points, and the difference is eight points among the unmarried. The list goes on and on.

In 2001, voters were 33% Democratic, 32% Republican, and 34% independent, with a Republican edge of 47%-46% after leaners were pushed. But now, it's 36% Democrats, 27% Republicans and 37% independents, with a huge Democratic advantage of 52%-37% with leaners.

The only bright spots for the GOP are three base groups: Frequent churchgoers, with no decrease at all; conservatives, with only a one-point decrease; and voters 65 years of age or older, with a one-point decrease. It should also be noted that they've only gone down one point among non-whites -- but this is because they didn't have much party identification there to begin with.

I've always defined myself as an independent, but in recent months (post election), I've come to identify with the third party.

AZGrizFan wrote:I've always defined myself as an independent, but in recent months (post election), I've come to identify with the third party.

Which third party?

dbackjon wrote:

AZGrizFan wrote:I've always defined myself as an independent, but in recent months (post election), I've come to identify with the third party.

Which third party?

The Fuck Head Party

dbackjon wrote:

AZGrizFan wrote:I've always defined myself as an independent, but in recent months (post election), I've come to identify with the third party.

Which third party?

The free thinkers. Otherwise known as Libertarians.

I think, and most here would agree, that the Republican Party, as dominated today by the neocons, is "Dead Man Walking"...

The current Libertarian Party may not be the answer or replacement...but a true conservative party will come out of the mess created by BushCheneyRumsfield et al...

Col Hogan wrote:
...but a true conservative party will come out of the mess created by BushCheneyRumsfield et al...

In what decade will this happen?

dbackjon wrote:

Col Hogan wrote:
...but a true conservative party will come out of the mess created by BushCheneyRumsfield et al...

In what decade will this happen?

Soon I hope...
It would be nice to have a Republican party with no interest in religious issues
and no interest in aligning itself with general social issues what-so-ever
A true Republic - fiscally sound - small and efficient

Pass me the hooch - I need another hit... I think I'm totally trippin' right now

Col Hogan wrote:I think, and most here would agree, that the Republican Party, as dominated today by the neocons, is "Dead Man Walking"...

The current Libertarian Party may not be the answer or replacement...but a true conservative party will come out of the mess created by BushCheneyRumsfieldHoganAzgrizfanTma67Citdog et al...

Cleets Part 2 wrote:Soon I hope...
It would be nice to have a Republican party with no interest in religious issues
and no interest in aligning itself with general social issues what-so-ever
A true Republic - fiscally sound - small and efficient

Pass me the hooch - I need another hit... I think I'm totally trippin' right now

Nothing would make me happier, but it will never be. A bureaucracy NEVER shrinks, NEVER. No matter what happens, they only grow.

bobbythekidd wrote:

Cleets Part 2 wrote:Soon I hope...
It would be nice to have a Republican party with no interest in religious issues
and no interest in aligning itself with general social issues what-so-ever
A true Republic - fiscally sound - small and efficient

Pass me the hooch - I need another hit... I think I'm totally trippin' right now

Nothing would make me happier, but it will never be. A bureaucracy NEVER shrinks, NEVER. No matter what happens, they only grow.

Bobby, the only way a bureaucracy or government can shrink is if there are less people to govern. Overpopulation is killing us.

Col Hogan wrote:I think, and most here would agree, that the Republican Party, as dominated today by the neocons, is "Dead Man Walking"...

The current Libertarian Party may not be the answer or replacement...but a true conservative party will come out of the mess created by BushCheneyRumsfield et al...

Bull Moose Party!

this "true conservative party" you boyos are seeking is a sure ticket to the future electoral success of the Dems... so... keep at it!

all kidding aside... the percentage of the country that share your view is not as large as you might think... on the best days it might reach 22%

the evangelical right wing bloc is somewhere near 30% on their best day

combined, and with what is left of the country clubbers in the GOP you guys held power for the bulk of this decade.

but that coalition is fast breaking apart, as you guys are exhibit A of.

building a libertarian party that is electorally viable is a LONG way off. I don't quite know how this political realignment is going to shake out, but what I do know is that divorce between the two factions of the GOP is likely to be messy, and the fight over who gets the house and the kids is going to be fascinating.

get ready for what looks like quite a few years in the wilderness...

D1B wrote:Bobby, the only way a bureaucracy or government can shrink is if there are less people to govern. Overpopulation is killing us.

It's BOB dammit!

TwinTownBisonFan wrote:this "true conservative party" you boyos are seeking is a sure ticket to the future electoral success of the Dems... so... keep at it!

all kidding aside... the percentage of the country that share your view is not as large as you might think... on the best days it might reach 22%

the evangelical right wing bloc is somewhere near 30% on their best day

combined, and with what is left of the country clubbers in the GOP you guys held power for the bulk of this decade.

but that coalition is fast breaking apart, as you guys are exhibit A of.

building a libertarian party that is electorally viable is a LONG way off. I don't quite know how this political realignment is going to shake out, but what I do know is that divorce between the two factions of the GOP is likely to be messy, and the fight over who gets the house and the kids is going to be fascinating.

get ready for what looks like quite a few years in the wilderness...

Agree, but I believe more people would be inclined to support a party that showed itself as a serious player....and, IMO, the majority of those folks in Repub party who would be reluctant to move to Liberterian faction are older and dying out...the Liberterian faction is a younger phenomena...

However, you're correct in that it would be a long, messy process.....but so is surgery & chemo to remove a cancerous growth and how long do you wait for your body to fix itself.....

TwinTownBisonFan wrote:this "true conservative party" you boyos are seeking is a sure ticket to the future electoral success of the Dems... so... keep at it!

all kidding aside... the percentage of the country that share your view is not as large as you might think... on the best days it might reach 22%

the evangelical right wing bloc is somewhere near 30% on their best day

combined, and with what is left of the country clubbers in the GOP you guys held power for the bulk of this decade.

but that coalition is fast breaking apart, as you guys are exhibit A of.

building a libertarian party that is electorally viable is a LONG way off. I don't quite know how this political realignment is going to shake out, but what I do know is that divorce between the two factions of the GOP is likely to be messy, and the fight over who gets the house and the kids is going to be fascinating.

get ready for what looks like quite a few years in the wilderness...

What is the percentage of Reagan Dems that would abandon the Pelosi wing of the party and join this new party as well?

HI54UNI wrote:

TwinTownBisonFan wrote:this "true conservative party" you boyos are seeking is a sure ticket to the future electoral success of the Dems... so... keep at it!

all kidding aside... the percentage of the country that share your view is not as large as you might think... on the best days it might reach 22%

the evangelical right wing bloc is somewhere near 30% on their best day

combined, and with what is left of the country clubbers in the GOP you guys held power for the bulk of this decade.

but that coalition is fast breaking apart, as you guys are exhibit A of.

building a libertarian party that is electorally viable is a LONG way off. I don't quite know how this political realignment is going to shake out, but what I do know is that divorce between the two factions of the GOP is likely to be messy, and the fight over who gets the house and the kids is going to be fascinating.

get ready for what looks like quite a few years in the wilderness...

What is the percentage of Reagan Dems that would abandon the Pelosi wing of the party and join this new party as well?

It would really depend on who the leaders of the new party were, and platform.

I agree that Libertarians are too far outside the mainstream to be a major player (like the Greens on the left), but depending on what elements from the Libertarian movement were added, it could attract a lot of moderate Reps and Dems

HI54UNI wrote:

TwinTownBisonFan wrote:this "true conservative party" you boyos are seeking is a sure ticket to the future electoral success of the Dems... so... keep at it!

all kidding aside... the percentage of the country that share your view is not as large as you might think... on the best days it might reach 22%

the evangelical right wing bloc is somewhere near 30% on their best day

combined, and with what is left of the country clubbers in the GOP you guys held power for the bulk of this decade.

but that coalition is fast breaking apart, as you guys are exhibit A of.

building a libertarian party that is electorally viable is a LONG way off. I don't quite know how this political realignment is going to shake out, but what I do know is that divorce between the two factions of the GOP is likely to be messy, and the fight over who gets the house and the kids is going to be fascinating.

get ready for what looks like quite a few years in the wilderness...

What is the percentage of Reagan Dems that would abandon the Pelosi wing of the party and join this new party as well?

Depends on whether this new party played to the GOP's quiet racism... and before anyone protests... don't, because it's a fact.

The "Reagan Dems" were largely Nixon voters in 68 and 72 for the same reason. In our party, we call them "Archie Bunker Democrats"... they vote for us not because of any libertarian leanings, but because they like our economic message. ironically, many of them, while supporting progressive taxation and social libertarianism hate welfare for "them"... it would strongly depend on how the libertarian party handled the race issue. as it is now, the movement... especially Ron Paul's has a wicked undercurrent on the race issue that nobody likes to mention.

dbackjon wrote:

HI54UNI wrote:
What is the percentage of Reagan Dems that would abandon the Pelosi wing of the party and join this new party as well?

It would really depend on who the leaders of the new party were, and platform.

I agree that Libertarians are too far outside the mainstream to be a major player (like the Greens on the left), but depending on what elements from the Libertarian movement were added, it could attract a lot of moderate Reps and Dems

TTBF is most likely right. It's going to be interesting watching this play out.

I for one would like to see a new party that is focused on smaller government protecting the nation, building and maintaining the infrastructure (education, transportation, etc.) that is the foundation for the country's growth while staying out of people's lives (guns, abortion, etc.). I would also like a party that steps away from the closet racism and invites people of various backgrounds in by working to provide opportunities rather than entitlements (individual or corporate). It might be a pipe dream but it's my pipe dream.

UNI88 wrote:

dbackjon wrote:
It would really depend on who the leaders of the new party were, and platform.

I agree that Libertarians are too far outside the mainstream to be a major player (like the Greens on the left), but depending on what elements from the Libertarian movement were added, it could attract a lot of moderate Reps and Dems

TTBF is most likely right. It's going to be interesting watching this play out.

I for one would like to see a new party that is focused on smaller government protecting the nation, building and maintaining the infrastructure (education, transportation, etc.) that is the foundation for the country's growth while staying out of people's lives (guns, abortion, etc.). I would also like a party that steps away from the closet racism and invites people of various backgrounds in by working to provide opportunities rather than entitlements (individual or corporate). It might be a pipe dream but it's my pipe dream.

that would be a step in the right direction.

TwinTownBisonFan wrote:

HI54UNI wrote:
What is the percentage of Reagan Dems that would abandon the Pelosi wing of the party and join this new party as well?

Depends on whether this new party played to the GOP's quiet racism... and before anyone protests... don't, because it's a fact.

The "Reagan Dems" were largely Nixon voters in 68 and 72 for the same reason. In our party, we call them "Archie Bunker Democrats"... they vote for us not because of any libertarian leanings, but because they like our economic message. ironically, many of them, while supporting progressive taxation and social libertarianism hate welfare for "them"... it would strongly depend on how the libertarian party handled the race issue. as it is now, the movement... especially Ron Paul's has a wicked undercurrent on the race issue that nobody likes to mention.

Maybe it has to do with my location, but I've never experienced the latent racism within the Ron Paul supporters in our area. Most of the hard-core racist rednecks in our area are more associated with REpublican party. The Ron Paul supporters I've come in contact with locally tend to be college graduates, a little more progressive with social norms yet fiscally conservative and concerned with not so much exercising their rights, but not allowing any third party to infringe upon them. However, some people do consider their support in border enforcement as racist, but, with me at least, it's more a matter of calling the government out for selective enforcement of their numerous laws.....

Appaholic wrote:

TwinTownBisonFan wrote:
Depends on whether this new party played to the GOP's quiet racism... and before anyone protests... don't, because it's a fact.

The "Reagan Dems" were largely Nixon voters in 68 and 72 for the same reason. In our party, we call them "Archie Bunker Democrats"... they vote for us not because of any libertarian leanings, but because they like our economic message. ironically, many of them, while supporting progressive taxation and social libertarianism hate welfare for "them"... it would strongly depend on how the libertarian party handled the race issue. as it is now, the movement... especially Ron Paul's has a wicked undercurrent on the race issue that nobody likes to mention.

Maybe it has to do with my location, but I've never experienced the latent racism within the Ron Paul supporters in our area. Most of the hard-core racist rednecks in our area are more associated with REpublican party. The Ron Paul supporters I've come in contact with locally tend to be college graduates, a little more progressive with social norms yet fiscally conservative and concerned with not so much exercising their rights, but not allowing any third party to infringe upon them. However, some people do consider their support in border enforcement as racist, but, with me at least, it's more a matter of calling the government out for selective enforcement of their numerous laws.....

I probably disagree with Appa on immigration but it's something that I can work around much easier than I can work with the social nazism of the evangelical right or the fiscal irresponsibility and big government of either the neo-cons or the left.

UNI88 wrote:

Appaholic wrote:
Maybe it has to do with my location, but I've never experienced the latent racism within the Ron Paul supporters in our area. Most of the hard-core racist rednecks in our area are more associated with REpublican party. The Ron Paul supporters I've come in contact with locally tend to be college graduates, a little more progressive with social norms yet fiscally conservative and concerned with not so much exercising their rights, but not allowing any third party to infringe upon them. However, some people do consider their support in border enforcement as racist, but, with me at least, it's more a matter of calling the government out for selective enforcement of their numerous laws.....

I probably disagree with Appa on immigration but it's something that I can work around much easier than I can work with the social nazism of the evangelical right or the fiscal irresponsibility and big government of either the neo-cons or the left.

I could work around border enforcement as well, as long as they take the laws off the books....one of many laws not being enforced that need to be purged from the rolls....that's my desire...

Appaholic wrote:

TwinTownBisonFan wrote:
Depends on whether this new party played to the GOP's quiet racism... and before anyone protests... don't, because it's a fact.

The "Reagan Dems" were largely Nixon voters in 68 and 72 for the same reason. In our party, we call them "Archie Bunker Democrats"... they vote for us not because of any libertarian leanings, but because they like our economic message. ironically, many of them, while supporting progressive taxation and social libertarianism hate welfare for "them"... it would strongly depend on how the libertarian party handled the race issue. as it is now, the movement... especially Ron Paul's has a wicked undercurrent on the race issue that nobody likes to mention.

Maybe it has to do with my location, but I've never experienced the latent racism within the Ron Paul supporters in our area. Most of the hard-core racist rednecks in our area are more associated with REpublican party. The Ron Paul supporters I've come in contact with locally tend to be college graduates, a little more progressive with social norms yet fiscally conservative and concerned with not so much exercising their rights, but not allowing any third party to infringe upon them. However, some people do consider their support in border enforcement as racist, but, with me at least, it's more a matter of calling the government out for selective enforcement of their numerous laws.....

It's where his money comes from...

TwinTownBisonFan wrote:

Appaholic wrote:
Maybe it has to do with my location, but I've never experienced the latent racism within the Ron Paul supporters in our area. Most of the hard-core racist rednecks in our area are more associated with REpublican party. The Ron Paul supporters I've come in contact with locally tend to be college graduates, a little more progressive with social norms yet fiscally conservative and concerned with not so much exercising their rights, but not allowing any third party to infringe upon them. However, some people do consider their support in border enforcement as racist, but, with me at least, it's more a matter of calling the government out for selective enforcement of their numerous laws.....

It's where his money comes from...

Surely you don't mean to imply that an elected official would listen to monied interests before the common citizen......come on, TTBF, you're gonna sour me on elected officials.....