Experts see double-digit Dem losses

[Col Hogan]

Not the end of the world for the Democrats...maybe...

At the mid-August Netroots Nation convention, Nate Silver, a Democratic analyst whose uncannily accurate, stat-driven predictions have made his website FiveThirtyEight.com a must read among political junkies, predicted that Republicans will win between 20 and 50 seats next year. He further alarmed an audience of progressive activists by arguing that the GOP has between a 25 and 33 percent chance of winning back control of the House.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0809/26393.html

And while other analysts see big gains for the GOP in the mid-term....not all are doom and gloom for the Dems...

Cook Political Report House analyst David Wasserman, who expects Republicans to pick up between nine and 26 seats, said that even if the national environment approximates the 1994 atmosphere, there are significant structural differences about the political landscape that will limit Republican gains

[TwinTownBisonFan]

eh - i see about 8 to 12 seats lost at this point

we'll give back a bunch that we shouldn't ever be holding - but were won in landslide years.

[AZGrizFan]

eh - i see about 8 to 12 seats lost at this point

we'll give back a bunch that we shouldn't ever be holding - but were won in landslide years.

I'll take the over.

[Ivytalk]

It's way too early to make a reliable prediction -- interesting as the preliminary forecasts are.

[Skjellyfetti]

Republicans have a whole lot of ground to try to make up... not happening anytime soon.

[AZGrizFan]

Nice to see you changed your math there, Einstein. Every 2 years if there's a 10 seats picked up, it could happen in four years...WAY before 2026.

[HI54UNI]

Republicans have a whole lot of ground to try to make up... not happening anytime soon.

And the "experts" never thought the R's would take the house in 94. Not saying it is going to happen again next year but ...

[houndawg]

Good, maybe we'll get some Republicans that can do something other than blame Obama for their eight-years of miserable failure.

[ALPHAGRIZ1]

As opposed to the Dems 60 years of miserable failure?

I'm readin ya.

[Gil Dobie]

Good, maybe we'll get some Republicans that can do something other than blame Obama for their eight-years of miserable failure.

I'm still looking for Democrats that don't blame Bush for anything

[TwinTownBisonFan]

Good, maybe we'll get some Republicans that can do something other than blame Obama for their eight-years of miserable failure.

I'm still looking for Democrats that don't blame Bush for anything

We're still looking for something that isn't his fault... seriously, it's like cleaning up after a disaster in here - we've got haz-mat teams and everything - but the job is massive, and frankly I think our message to the American people should be something like "well... even we were surprised how much shit is in there - it's going to take longer than we originally bid - we've actually come up with a new word for what we're doing, given how seemingly without precedent this all is... it's called un-fucking, and it's gonna take awhile."

As for the mid-terms, the upside for the Dems is that the only polling worse than the Democrats right now is the Republicans... it's as if the country is saying... "you aren't doing enough - but dammit we don't want them back"... there are some districts where that's not the case - districts we have no business holding, but have won in the wave that swept the GOP out... I can think of a few off my head that we're likely to lose this cycle - back later with them

[TwinTownBisonFan]

Seats that seem like they will be lost:

ID-1 Minnick - we should NEVER have a seat in Idaho... order will be restored
NM-2 Teague - R+5 and a traditional GOP seat - likely going back over
TX-17 Edwards - R+20! the most GOP seat we hold, I think... Chet's a popular guy, but I think this is the year he falls (though, he survived Delay's redistricting mid-decade, he may have another rabbit in his hat)
LA-3 Open - R+14 in a state trending red already... without Melancon (who's going after Diaper Dave Vitter for the Sen) this appears lost
MS-1 Childers - R+14 that was won on HUGE black turnout for Obama and a national wave - conditions that won't repeat in 2010
MD-1 Kratovil - How we won on the eastern shore is beyond me... but I think we'll give it back (the powerful MD delegation could make this a kick save though)

The Repubs still have places they can lose -

Races that will be competitive and could break against us

CA-11 McNerney - It's going to be a fight - but at this point I think Jerry holds on
NV-3 Titus - A lot of factors will play in, but she could be in trouble
CO-4 Markey - We won this seat largely on how crazy Marilyn Musgrave is... it's an R+6, so if they find a viable candidate, this moves to a loss
MO-4 Skelton - he's a top GOP target, and the seat is R+14... still Skelton is popular with the locals
AL-2 Bright - in a great year for Dems he held this open seat by the skin of his teeth - with conditions turning - i think the GOP picks up here, a seat the Dems have had for a long time.
AL-5 Griffith - R+14 we shouldn't be holding the in Huntsville area
IL-14 Foster - Hastert's old district, the GOP is coming hard after ol' Doc Foster - but I think he'll hold on (I know Bill personally - he's a fighter, he'll pull it out
WI-8 Kagen - Green Bay and the Fox Valley are GOP but Kagen's done well
MI-7 Schauer - he's an incumbent (freshman) in state where that's not a good thing in a swing district
OH-15 Kilroy - it's a toss up seat...
OH-16 Boccieri - R+7 won in a wave
OH-18 Space - We thought this was lost last time... it wasn't
NY-24 Arcuri - won in a wave - could go back, but NYGOP isn't in a strong position
NY-29 Massa - see above
PA-7 OPEN - Sestak running for Sen opens the seat up - target of opportunity for GOP
PA-10 Carney - We thought this was lost last time... it wasn't
VA-2 Nye - R+5 - traditional GOP stronghold - Dems made huge inroads in the VA Beach area since 01, but there's a good chance this starts backtracking
VA-5 Perriello - R+5 south central VA - my guess is they are gunning for him
NC-8 Kissel - young incumbent lean gop district
GA 8&12 - Barrow and Marshall - the GOP have targeted them this entire decade... never have gotten them
FL-8 - Grayson - marginal district - if GOP recruiting is strong - he's got trouble
FL-24 Kosmas - If the rumors about Lou Holtz are true... this becomes a likely loss.

GOP seats that could be winnable for Dems

CA-50 Billbray - still a chance to get him the district is only R+1
NE-2 Terry - We've been chipping at Lee Terry for about 6 years - things are looking competitive
MN-6 Bachmann - in a perfect storm - but Clark isn't the candidate to win that seat
IA-4 Latham - competitive district, Dems could make a race of it
MI-11 McCotter - he's an incumbent in state where that's not a good thing in a swing district
OH-2 Schmidt - Perennial Dem punching bag, won only 45% in '08
OH-12 Tiberi - Dems ran a TERRIBLE campaign here last time - D+1 that could flip back
NY-23 OPEN - this is a special election upcoming... we'll see.
PA-6 OPEN - Dems could never get Gerlach - but an open seat is a big opportunity
PA- 15 Dent - Chucky's been fortunate to not face a serious campaign yet... that's changing

Seats Dems WILL win

LA-2 Cao - D+25 Cao won because Bill "freezer full of cash" Jefferson won the Dem primary - a wrong will be righted
IL-10 Open - Mark Kirk (R) running for the Sen opens up this D+6 which will finally fall in to Dem hands after years of struggle

In total - 6 likely dem losses - 2 likely dem wins = net - 4... and assuming a portion of the 29 leaners moves... it's still not a majority breaker... i don't see a lot of other seats that the Dems are going to lose unless it's a wave election - and... it's not

[UNI88]

Races that will be competitive and could break against us
IL-14 Foster - Hastert's old district, the GOP is coming hard after ol' Doc Foster - but I think he'll hold on (I know Bill personally - he's a fighter, he'll pull it out

Seats Dems WILL win
IL-10 Open - Mark Kirk (R) running for the Sen opens up this D+6 which will finally fall in to Dem hands after years of struggle

Nice analysis. I can't speak for the others but I here is what I think about the Illinois races:
IL-14 - agree on Foster. He seems to be a good guy who people like and respect. That will play well in that district regardless of party affiliation. Reps need to stop running Oberweis in these things. He makes good milk but he's a chronic serial candidate.
IL-10, not sure about this one. If Dan Seals gets the nomination he'll win but anyone else is going to have a tougher time of it. Michael Bond is a nice guy but seems to vote/support what's best for him and his neighbors rather than what is best for all of his constituents. Bond also lives on the extreme edge of the district and will be seen as an outsider. He won the state senate seat by going door to door and talking to people; he'll have a tougher time doing that in the larger Congressional district. Lots of time for other candidates to enter the fray and make things chaotic.

[TwinTownBisonFan]

Races that will be competitive and could break against us
IL-14 Foster - Hastert's old district, the GOP is coming hard after ol' Doc Foster - but I think he'll hold on (I know Bill personally - he's a fighter, he'll pull it out

Seats Dems WILL win
IL-10 Open - Mark Kirk (R) running for the Sen opens up this D+6 which will finally fall in to Dem hands after years of struggle

Nice analysis. I can't speak for the others but I here is what I think about the Illinois races:
IL-14 - agree on Foster. He seems to be a good guy who people like and respect. That will play well in that district regardless of party affiliation. Reps need to stop running Oberweis in these things. He makes good milk but he's a chronic serial candidate.
IL-10, not sure about this one. If Dan Seals gets the nomination he'll win but anyone else is going to have a tougher time of it. Michael Bond is a nice guy but seems to vote/support what's best for him and his neighbors rather than what is best for all of his constituents. Bond also lives on the extreme edge of the district and will be seen as an outsider. He won the state senate seat by going door to door and talking to people; he'll have a tougher time doing that in the larger Congressional district. Lots of time for other candidates to enter the fray and make things chaotic.

Bill and I worked together in Pennsylvania for Murphy - he may in fact be the smartest person I know - he just showed up one day at our office and said "i'm thinking of running for Congress against Hastert in 2008 in my home district, I'd like to see what it's like to run, can I work for you guys for free for 4 months?" Dude was incredible to work with. I'd seriously consider heading to IL to help Bill if he looked in trouble.

[wildkyle]

I used to live in the Florida 24 district. I would be happy to see that seat go back to the GOP. One of the problems for the democrats there is Obama opposes the space program and since that is home to the Space Center it is not suprising to see it turning on him.

[houndawg]

I find it hard to believe that anybody is going to believe a word that comes out of a Republican's mouth for quite q while.

Any of you fellas in the business care to comment on the Greens getting enough votes to be on the ballots in Illinois automatically?

[UNI88]

I find it hard to believe that anybody is going to believe a word that comes out of a Republican's mouth for quite q while.

Any of you fellas in the business care to comment on the Greens getting enough votes to be on the ballots in Illinois automatically?

Dawg, following that logic you should also have a hard time believing that anybody in Illinois is going to believe a word that comes out of a Democrat's mouth for quite a while. Despite how badly the Dem's have fvcked up Illinois I have a hard time believing that they aren't going to maintain control in 2010 and 2012.

I would love to see the Greens on the ballots but don't know if they'll make it automatically.

[AZGrizFan]

I find it hard to believe that anybody is going to believe a word that comes out of a Republican's mouth for quite q while.

Any of you fellas in the business care to comment on the Greens getting enough votes to be on the ballots in Illinois automatically?

Given that Obama has gone back on just about every campaign promise he's made, the same logic could be applied to dems.

[wildkyle]

I don't see the GOP winning back congress this time but in 2012 you Democrats are going to have problems

[houndawg]

I find it hard to believe that anybody is going to believe a word that comes out of a Republican's mouth for quite q while.

Any of you fellas in the business care to comment on the Greens getting enough votes to be on the ballots in Illinois automatically?

Dawg, following that logic you should also have a hard time believing that anybody in Illinois is going to believe a word that comes out of a Democrat's mouth for quite a while. Despite how badly the Dem's have fvcked up Illinois I have a hard time believing that they aren't going to maintain control in 2010 and 2012.

I would love to see the Greens on the ballots but don't know if they'll make it automatically.

Hey, I'm proud that the Democrats in Illinois are so close to the working folk that they even make license plates for them.

My comment on the Greens was based on the fact that since they got 10% (+ or -) of the vote in the last gubernatorial election here (Rich Whitney) they are supposed to be automatic qualifiers now. Yes?

[houndawg]

I find it hard to believe that anybody is going to believe a word that comes out of a Republican's mouth for quite q while.

Any of you fellas in the business care to comment on the Greens getting enough votes to be on the ballots in Illinois automatically?

Given that Obama has gone back on just about every campaign promise he's made, the same logic could be applied to dems.

That's your job.

[Col Hogan]

Seats that seem like they will be lost:

ID-1 Minnick - we should NEVER have a seat in Idaho... order will be restored
NM-2 Teague - R+5 and a traditional GOP seat - likely going back over
TX-17 Edwards - R+20! the most GOP seat we hold, I think... Chet's a popular guy, but I think this is the year he falls (though, he survived Delay's redistricting mid-decade, he may have another rabbit in his hat)
LA-3 Open - R+14 in a state trending red already... without Melancon (who's going after Diaper Dave Vitter for the Sen) this appears lost
MS-1 Childers - R+14 that was won on HUGE black turnout for Obama and a national wave - conditions that won't repeat in 2010
MD-1 Kratovil - How we won on the eastern shore is beyond me... but I think we'll give it back (the powerful MD delegation could make this a kick save though)

The Repubs still have places they can lose -

Races that will be competitive and could break against us

CA-11 McNerney - It's going to be a fight - but at this point I think Jerry holds on
NV-3 Titus - A lot of factors will play in, but she could be in trouble
CO-4 Markey - We won this seat largely on how crazy Marilyn Musgrave is... it's an R+6, so if they find a viable candidate, this moves to a loss
MO-4 Skelton - he's a top GOP target, and the seat is R+14... still Skelton is popular with the locals
AL-2 Bright - in a great year for Dems he held this open seat by the skin of his teeth - with conditions turning - i think the GOP picks up here, a seat the Dems have had for a long time.
AL-5 Griffith - R+14 we shouldn't be holding the in Huntsville area
IL-14 Foster - Hastert's old district, the GOP is coming hard after ol' Doc Foster - but I think he'll hold on (I know Bill personally - he's a fighter, he'll pull it out
WI-8 Kagen - Green Bay and the Fox Valley are GOP but Kagen's done well
MI-7 Schauer - he's an incumbent (freshman) in state where that's not a good thing in a swing district
OH-15 Kilroy - it's a toss up seat...
OH-16 Boccieri - R+7 won in a wave
OH-18 Space - We thought this was lost last time... it wasn't
NY-24 Arcuri - won in a wave - could go back, but NYGOP isn't in a strong position
NY-29 Massa - see above
PA-7 OPEN - Sestak running for Sen opens the seat up - target of opportunity for GOP
PA-10 Carney - We thought this was lost last time... it wasn't
VA-2 Nye - R+5 - traditional GOP stronghold - Dems made huge inroads in the VA Beach area since 01, but there's a good chance this starts backtracking
VA-5 Perriello - R+5 south central VA - my guess is they are gunning for him
NC-8 Kissel - young incumbent lean gop district
GA 8&12 - Barrow and Marshall - the GOP have targeted them this entire decade... never have gotten them
FL-8 - Grayson - marginal district - if GOP recruiting is strong - he's got trouble
FL-24 Kosmas - If the rumors about Lou Holtz are true... this becomes a likely loss.

GOP seats that could be winnable for Dems

CA-50 Billbray - still a chance to get him the district is only R+1
NE-2 Terry - We've been chipping at Lee Terry for about 6 years - things are looking competitive
MN-6 Bachmann - in a perfect storm - but Clark isn't the candidate to win that seat
IA-4 Latham - competitive district, Dems could make a race of it
MI-11 McCotter - he's an incumbent in state where that's not a good thing in a swing district
OH-2 Schmidt - Perennial Dem punching bag, won only 45% in '08
OH-12 Tiberi - Dems ran a TERRIBLE campaign here last time - D+1 that could flip back
NY-23 OPEN - this is a special election upcoming... we'll see.
PA-6 OPEN - Dems could never get Gerlach - but an open seat is a big opportunity
PA- 15 Dent - Chucky's been fortunate to not face a serious campaign yet... that's changing

Seats Dems WILL win

LA-2 Cao - D+25 Cao won because Bill "freezer full of cash" Jefferson won the Dem primary - a wrong will be righted
IL-10 Open - Mark Kirk (R) running for the Sen opens up this D+6 which will finally fall in to Dem hands after years of struggle

In total - 6 likely dem losses - 2 likely dem wins = net - 4... and assuming a portion of the 29 leaners moves... it's still not a majority breaker... i don't see a lot of other seats that the Dems are going to lose unless it's a wave election - and... it's not

So when we read that "Nate Silver, a Democratic analyst whose uncannily accurate, stat-driven predictions have made his website FiveThirtyEight.com a must read among political junkies, predicted that Republicans will win between 20 and 50 seats next year"... we are led to believe one of the following...

1. Nate SIlver, who has been uncannily accurate in the past, doesn't know what he's saying
2. TTBF really is the mastermind of the Democratic Party and slipped, letting us in on inside information
3. Nate SIlver is using psychological disinformation
4. TTBF is blowing smoke up our butts
5. It's way too early for Nate SIlver or TTBF to know shit, and they just enjoy hearing themselves talk...

Hmmmmmm

[TwinTownBisonFan]

Seats that seem like they will be lost:

ID-1 Minnick - we should NEVER have a seat in Idaho... order will be restored
NM-2 Teague - R+5 and a traditional GOP seat - likely going back over
TX-17 Edwards - R+20! the most GOP seat we hold, I think... Chet's a popular guy, but I think this is the year he falls (though, he survived Delay's redistricting mid-decade, he may have another rabbit in his hat)
LA-3 Open - R+14 in a state trending red already... without Melancon (who's going after Diaper Dave Vitter for the Sen) this appears lost
MS-1 Childers - R+14 that was won on HUGE black turnout for Obama and a national wave - conditions that won't repeat in 2010
MD-1 Kratovil - How we won on the eastern shore is beyond me... but I think we'll give it back (the powerful MD delegation could make this a kick save though)

The Repubs still have places they can lose -

Races that will be competitive and could break against us

CA-11 McNerney - It's going to be a fight - but at this point I think Jerry holds on
NV-3 Titus - A lot of factors will play in, but she could be in trouble
CO-4 Markey - We won this seat largely on how crazy Marilyn Musgrave is... it's an R+6, so if they find a viable candidate, this moves to a loss
MO-4 Skelton - he's a top GOP target, and the seat is R+14... still Skelton is popular with the locals
AL-2 Bright - in a great year for Dems he held this open seat by the skin of his teeth - with conditions turning - i think the GOP picks up here, a seat the Dems have had for a long time.
AL-5 Griffith - R+14 we shouldn't be holding the in Huntsville area
IL-14 Foster - Hastert's old district, the GOP is coming hard after ol' Doc Foster - but I think he'll hold on (I know Bill personally - he's a fighter, he'll pull it out
WI-8 Kagen - Green Bay and the Fox Valley are GOP but Kagen's done well
MI-7 Schauer - he's an incumbent (freshman) in state where that's not a good thing in a swing district
OH-15 Kilroy - it's a toss up seat...
OH-16 Boccieri - R+7 won in a wave
OH-18 Space - We thought this was lost last time... it wasn't
NY-24 Arcuri - won in a wave - could go back, but NYGOP isn't in a strong position
NY-29 Massa - see above
PA-7 OPEN - Sestak running for Sen opens the seat up - target of opportunity for GOP
PA-10 Carney - We thought this was lost last time... it wasn't
VA-2 Nye - R+5 - traditional GOP stronghold - Dems made huge inroads in the VA Beach area since 01, but there's a good chance this starts backtracking
VA-5 Perriello - R+5 south central VA - my guess is they are gunning for him
NC-8 Kissel - young incumbent lean gop district
GA 8&12 - Barrow and Marshall - the GOP have targeted them this entire decade... never have gotten them
FL-8 - Grayson - marginal district - if GOP recruiting is strong - he's got trouble
FL-24 Kosmas - If the rumors about Lou Holtz are true... this becomes a likely loss.

GOP seats that could be winnable for Dems

CA-50 Billbray - still a chance to get him the district is only R+1
NE-2 Terry - We've been chipping at Lee Terry for about 6 years - things are looking competitive
MN-6 Bachmann - in a perfect storm - but Clark isn't the candidate to win that seat
IA-4 Latham - competitive district, Dems could make a race of it
MI-11 McCotter - he's an incumbent in state where that's not a good thing in a swing district
OH-2 Schmidt - Perennial Dem punching bag, won only 45% in '08
OH-12 Tiberi - Dems ran a TERRIBLE campaign here last time - D+1 that could flip back
NY-23 OPEN - this is a special election upcoming... we'll see.
PA-6 OPEN - Dems could never get Gerlach - but an open seat is a big opportunity
PA- 15 Dent - Chucky's been fortunate to not face a serious campaign yet... that's changing

Seats Dems WILL win

LA-2 Cao - D+25 Cao won because Bill "freezer full of cash" Jefferson won the Dem primary - a wrong will be righted
IL-10 Open - Mark Kirk (R) running for the Sen opens up this D+6 which will finally fall in to Dem hands after years of struggle

In total - 6 likely dem losses - 2 likely dem wins = net - 4... and assuming a portion of the 29 leaners moves... it's still not a majority breaker... i don't see a lot of other seats that the Dems are going to lose unless it's a wave election - and... it's not

So when we read that "Nate Silver, a Democratic analyst whose uncannily accurate, stat-driven predictions have made his website FiveThirtyEight.com a must read among political junkies, predicted that Republicans will win between 20 and 50 seats next year"... we are led to believe one of the following...

1. Nate SIlver, who has been uncannily accurate in the past, doesn't know what he's saying
2. TTBF really is the mastermind of the Democratic Party and slipped, letting us in on inside information
3. Nate SIlver is using psychological disinformation
4. TTBF is blowing smoke up our butts
5. It's way too early for Nate SIlver or TTBF to know shit, and they just enjoy hearing themselves talk...

Hmmmmmm

wow... i do serious work and research - put time and thought in to the post and i get this kind of shit for it??? I'm offering up my take - based on the fact that I know the congressional lay of the land better than anyone on this site (given that i've been working House elections for the better part of this decade) if you didn't want to solicit opinions, why'd you post the article?

[TwinTownBisonFan]

I don't see the GOP winning back congress this time but in 2012 you Democrats are going to have problems

there's a redistricting in 2011 - that the Dems will control in a number of key states...

[Col Hogan]

So when we read that "Nate Silver, a Democratic analyst whose uncannily accurate, stat-driven predictions have made his website FiveThirtyEight.com a must read among political junkies, predicted that Republicans will win between 20 and 50 seats next year"... we are led to believe one of the following...

1. Nate SIlver, who has been uncannily accurate in the past, doesn't know what he's saying
2. TTBF really is the mastermind of the Democratic Party and slipped, letting us in on inside information
3. Nate SIlver is using psychological disinformation
4. TTBF is blowing smoke up our butts
5. It's way too early for Nate SIlver or TTBF to know ****, and they just enjoy hearing themselves talk...

Hmmmmmm

wow... i do serious work and research - put time and thought in to the post and i get this kind of **** for it??? I'm offering up my take - based on the fact that I know the congressional lay of the land better than anyone on this site (given that i've been working House elections for the better part of this decade) if you didn't want to solicit opinions, why'd you post the article?

So is Nate Silver's prediction that far off that he's no longer credible???

I think that's one of the options I offered, and you seem to indicate that to be true???

Inquiring minds, and all that....