NCAA.com Bracketology 23 NOV 24

[SuperHornet]

At-Large Locks

Idaho: Scalp, w/4 FCS losses (Ivy co-champ Harvard/CAA co-champ Rhode Island/Villanova), win over bubble Stony Brook
IL State: MVFC #4 with 2 FCS losses (ND State/SW Missouri State)
Montana: lost to soon-to-be #1 MT State, beat bubble W. Carolina/N. Arizona
New Hampshire: 8-4, FCS losses to Ivy co-champ Harvard, CAA co-champ Rhode Island, 9-3 Villanova, bubble Stony Brook
ND State: #1 entering final week.
Rhode Island: co-CAA champ with one FCS loss to FBS-transitioning Delaware
South Dakota: beat #1 ND State
Tarleton State: 9-3, 2 FCS losses/win over S. Utah
CA-Davis: beat Idaho/Montana/S. Utah
Villanova: 9-3, 2on Battle of the Blue vs. Delaware/Stony Brook/New Hampshire

Last 4 In

E. Kentucky: 8-4 with 2 FCS losses and then-ranked wins Tarleton State, C. Arkansas. Downer: loss to bubble S. Utah, but 2 FCS losses better than S. Utah's 4.
TN Tech: 7-5 with 3 FCS losses. H2H over TN State/TN-Martin. Should beat out TN-Chattanooga due to win vs. Samford vice Chatt's 23-pt loss.
TN-Martin: 8-4 w/3 FCS losses (2OT to SEMO, SW MO State, TN Tech). WIn over TN State.
TN State: 9-3 w/3 FCS losses. Mediocre SOS, but 9 wins impressive. Beat SEMO.

First Teams Out

Duquesne: Almost won conference title w/8-3 record and 1 FCS loss, but have bottom-half SOS and best win vs. 4-7 Youngstown State. Only 7 FCS wins.
Stony Brook: Lost last two games. CAA #5. Best win vs. B&M isn't enough to overcome bad ending.
TN-Chattanooga: Best of 3 7-5 SoCon teams. 23-pt loss to Samford.
S. Utah: 7-5 with 4 FCS losses (including 5-win ID State). Scalp vs. TX-El Paso and win over E. Kentucky not enough.

On Bubble (But No Quality Win)

SE Louisiana: 7-5 w/3 FCS losses (SD State, Tarleton State, Incarnate Word), 2 FBS losses. Problem: only 2 wins vs. better than .500.
NC Central: Bottom half SOS with best win AL State, 7 FCS wins, home blowout loss to Elon.
N. Arizona: 8-4 w/3 FCS losses, only 7 FCS wins. No wins vs. better than .500.

Bubble But Out

W. Carolina: 7-5 w/4 FCS losses (including 3-9 Campbell). Offsets win vs. TN-Chattanooga. Complicated by loss to E. TN State.
E. TN State: 7-5 w/4 FCS losses. Only 6 FCS wins. Every other bubble team has 7 FCS wins or better.

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