Nate Silver Looks At Realignment

[UNHWildCats]

I'd been doing a bit of background work, including some statistical analysis, on the NCAA conference realignment, planning an article or two for slow weekends and assuming that the process would play out slowly. But that's been somewhat preempted by the news this week that Nebraska will join the Big Ten, and Colorado the Pac 10. Meanwhile, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are widely expected to join Colorado in the Pac 10 next week, which will cripple the Big 12 and put a whole range of things in motion.

What I came to realize in doing this background work is that while surely there will be chaos in the near term -- some proud programs like Missouri and Kansas, for instance, are effectively homeless for the time being -- it isn't necessarily the case that we won't end up with a reasonably elegant solution in the long-run.

Inevitably, it seems, we are headed toward four 16-team superconferences, each one representing one of the four major regions of the country. But when you start to sort everything out, it doesn't look so bad, leaving plenty of rivalries intact and very few BCS teams without a home. Here's an example of one such scenario:




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[SuperHornet]

I still don't know what this hard on for Notre Dame is. They are NOT going to the Big Ten.

[Willie]

I still don't know what this hard on for Notre Dame is. They are NOT going to the Big Ten.

You don't follow the Big Ten much evidently.

[SuperHornet]

I still don't know what this hard on for Notre Dame is. They are NOT going to the Big Ten.

You don't follow the Big Ten much evidently.

I follow the Big Ten enough to know that the most influential coach in the league is dead set against ND.

[Willie]

I'm gonna laugh when ND goes to the Big Ten. They have little choice. They'll be the only Independent team and will have a helluva time scheduling quality teams with the super conferences.

[JayJ79]

I'm gonna laugh when ND goes to the Big Ten. They have little choice. They'll be the only Independent team and will have a helluva time scheduling quality teams with the super conferences.

Are Army and Navy joining a conference?

[Willie]

I'm gonna laugh when ND goes to the Big Ten. They have little choice. They'll be the only Independent team and will have a helluva time scheduling quality teams with the super conferences.

Are Army and Navy joining a conference?

They will when this mess gets worse.

[GannonFan]

You don't follow the Big Ten much evidently.

I follow the Big Ten enough to know that the most influential coach in the league is dead set against ND.

Coaches don't decide this. If Notre Dame wants in, they'll be in. It's all about money and the Big Ten can make more money with Notre Dame than without them. Of course, the Big Ten doesn't need Notre Dame, but they sure wouldn't blink if Notre Dame wanted in.

[ASUMountaineer]

I follow the Big Ten enough to know that the most influential coach in the league is dead set against ND.

Coaches don't decide this. If Notre Dame wants in, they'll be in. It's all about money and the Big Ten can make more money with Notre Dame than without them. Of course, the Big Ten doesn't need Notre Dame, but they sure wouldn't blink if Notre Dame wanted in.

Agreed GF. The Big Ten's "hard-on" for Notre Dame is driven by money, exposure (which leads to more money), and geography/ common-sense. If Notre Dame wants in the Big Ten it won't matter what coach is against it, they're in.