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Nate Silver Looks At Realignment

Posted: Sun Jun 13, 2010 5:33 pm
by UNHWildCats
I'd been doing a bit of background work, including some statistical analysis, on the NCAA conference realignment, planning an article or two for slow weekends and assuming that the process would play out slowly. But that's been somewhat preempted by the news this week that Nebraska will join the Big Ten, and Colorado the Pac 10. Meanwhile, Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State are widely expected to join Colorado in the Pac 10 next week, which will cripple the Big 12 and put a whole range of things in motion.

What I came to realize in doing this background work is that while surely there will be chaos in the near term -- some proud programs like Missouri and Kansas, for instance, are effectively homeless for the time being -- it isn't necessarily the case that we won't end up with a reasonably elegant solution in the long-run.

Inevitably, it seems, we are headed toward four 16-team superconferences, each one representing one of the four major regions of the country. But when you start to sort everything out, it doesn't look so bad, leaving plenty of rivalries intact and very few BCS teams without a home. Here's an example of one such scenario:

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Re: Nate Silver Looks At Realignment

Posted: Sun Jun 13, 2010 8:31 pm
by SuperHornet
I still don't know what this hard on for Notre Dame is. They are NOT going to the Big Ten.

Re: Nate Silver Looks At Realignment

Posted: Sun Jun 13, 2010 9:19 pm
by Willie
SuperHornet wrote:I still don't know what this hard on for Notre Dame is. They are NOT going to the Big Ten.
You don't follow the Big Ten much evidently.

Re: Nate Silver Looks At Realignment

Posted: Sun Jun 13, 2010 9:44 pm
by SuperHornet
Willie wrote:
SuperHornet wrote:I still don't know what this hard on for Notre Dame is. They are NOT going to the Big Ten.
You don't follow the Big Ten much evidently.
I follow the Big Ten enough to know that the most influential coach in the league is dead set against ND.

Re: Nate Silver Looks At Realignment

Posted: Sun Jun 13, 2010 9:56 pm
by Willie
I'm gonna laugh when ND goes to the Big Ten. They have little choice. They'll be the only Independent team and will have a helluva time scheduling quality teams with the super conferences.

Re: Nate Silver Looks At Realignment

Posted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 12:58 am
by JayJ79
Willie wrote:I'm gonna laugh when ND goes to the Big Ten. They have little choice. They'll be the only Independent team and will have a helluva time scheduling quality teams with the super conferences.
Are Army and Navy joining a conference?

Re: Nate Silver Looks At Realignment

Posted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 9:01 am
by Willie
JayJ79 wrote:
Willie wrote:I'm gonna laugh when ND goes to the Big Ten. They have little choice. They'll be the only Independent team and will have a helluva time scheduling quality teams with the super conferences.
Are Army and Navy joining a conference?
They will when this mess gets worse.

Re: Nate Silver Looks At Realignment

Posted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 9:08 am
by GannonFan
SuperHornet wrote:
Willie wrote: You don't follow the Big Ten much evidently.
I follow the Big Ten enough to know that the most influential coach in the league is dead set against ND.
Coaches don't decide this. If Notre Dame wants in, they'll be in. It's all about money and the Big Ten can make more money with Notre Dame than without them. Of course, the Big Ten doesn't need Notre Dame, but they sure wouldn't blink if Notre Dame wanted in.

Re: Nate Silver Looks At Realignment

Posted: Mon Jun 14, 2010 1:01 pm
by ASUMountaineer
GannonFan wrote:
SuperHornet wrote:
I follow the Big Ten enough to know that the most influential coach in the league is dead set against ND.
Coaches don't decide this. If Notre Dame wants in, they'll be in. It's all about money and the Big Ten can make more money with Notre Dame than without them. Of course, the Big Ten doesn't need Notre Dame, but they sure wouldn't blink if Notre Dame wanted in.
Agreed GF. The Big Ten's "hard-on" for Notre Dame is driven by money, exposure (which leads to more money), and geography/ common-sense. If Notre Dame wants in the Big Ten it won't matter what coach is against it, they're in.