D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by FargoBison »

SDHornet wrote:
FargoBison wrote:
The Big Sky.

NDSU will never join the WAC and be in a conference with a diploma mill.
What does NDSU bring to the table that the BSC doesn't already have with UND?
A rival/travel partner for UND. Another strong football program, solid basketball and a great school.

It would be a slam dunk.
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by Fresno St. Alum »

If I was the Big Sky I'd take SDSU, NDSU now for a 15/14, soon to be 16/14 when Idaho gives up on FBS. Have a 7/7 split for bball 8/8 for fb w/o a title game.

Bball
East
NDSU
SDSU
UND
UNC
Montana
MSU
Idaho St.
West
NAU
Sac St.
Weber St.
PSU
EWU
SUU
Idaho

For fb put UCD and CP in the west, Idaho in the East when they give up on FBS.
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by danefan »

Not sure if you saw it, but Monmouth to the Big South in football only starting 2014
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by Fresno St. Alum »

danefan wrote:Not sure if you saw it, but Monmouth to the Big South in football only starting 2014
yes, I did yesterday, I don't really post the fb only updates.

So, Bryant and CCSU said to have turned down the invite to the AEC b/c of fb conf. worries. Would CCSU ask Big South for a fb invite, so they can go to the AEC.

AEC said they were looking to go to 12. Who are the other 3? NJIT? more D-II call ups like S.Conn St., NY Tech? NEC schools w/o fb like LIU(I think they should go to the MAAC).
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by SDHornet »

FargoBison wrote:
SDHornet wrote: What does NDSU bring to the table that the BSC doesn't already have with UND?
A rival/travel partner for UND. Another strong football program, solid basketball and a great school.

It would be a slam dunk.
NDSU will put the BSC at 15 football schools and 13 full members. I think we should pass due to the odd numbers. Maybe a football only when Idalol comes back for football so we get to 16. No point in having more than 12 full members with only 1 bball tourney bid. :coffee:
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by dbackjon »

SDHornet wrote:
FargoBison wrote:
A rival/travel partner for UND. Another strong football program, solid basketball and a great school.

It would be a slam dunk.
NDSU will put the BSC at 15 football schools and 13 full members. I think we should pass due to the odd numbers. Maybe a football only when Idalol comes back for football so we get to 16. No point in having more than 12 full members with only 1 bball tourney bid. :coffee:

Yeah - that would be far to big.
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by SDHornet »

WAC board rumors Tulsa to Big East, WKU to CUSA, and then App State, Ga Southern, and JMU to Sun Belt. FSA any idea if these are legit?
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by Fresno St. Alum »

SDHornet wrote:WAC board rumors Tulsa to Big East, WKU to CUSA, and then App State, Ga Southern, and JMU to Sun Belt. FSA any idea if these are legit?
Tulsa has been the top option for the nBE and will be #11, they may just wait a while until closer to 2015 when Navy joins if the nBE is cheap since they're getting under 2 mill per team.

WKU is probably the most likely option to replace Tulsa, Arkansas St. a close 2nd.

App St., Ga Southern have been waiting for the SBC to quit dragging their feet, SBC commish Peanut is a moron so who know when he'll finally invite them. JMU is a newer development, I think they have a new AD or Prez or something. They're a better option than the others like NMSU, SHSU, Lamar, Jax St., Missouri St.
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by SDHornet »

Fresno St. Alum wrote:
SDHornet wrote:WAC board rumors Tulsa to Big East, WKU to CUSA, and then App State, Ga Southern, and JMU to Sun Belt. FSA any idea if these are legit?
Tulsa has been the top option for the nBE and will be #11, they may just wait a while until closer to 2015 when Navy joins if the nBE is cheap since they're getting under 2 mill per team.

WKU is probably the most likely option to replace Tulsa, Arkansas St. a close 2nd.

App St., Ga Southern have been waiting for the SBC to quit dragging their feet, SBC commish Peanut is a moron so who know when he'll finally invite them. JMU is a newer development, I think they have a new AD or Prez or something. They're a better option than the others like NMSU, SHSU, Lamar, Jax St., Missouri St.
Good to know. Thanks.
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by Fresno St. Alum »

BE bball keeps the name adds Xavier, Butler in 2013 and Creighton, Dayton, St.Louis in 2014
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by SDHornet »

Fresno St. Alum wrote:BE bball keeps the name adds Xavier, Butler in 2013 and Creighton, Dayton, St.Louis in 2014
If Creighton is gone, who does the MVC pick up? Summitt has to be pretty shaky right about now.
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by TwinTownBisonFan »

SDHornet wrote:
Fresno St. Alum wrote:BE bball keeps the name adds Xavier, Butler in 2013 and Creighton, Dayton, St.Louis in 2014
If Creighton is gone, who does the MVC pick up? Summitt has to be pretty shaky right about now.
MVC should eye up the three Dakota schools - and let the A-10 or Horizon snipe Bradley and Evansville and go all-sports.

Wichita would then be properly incentivized to bring back football.
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by TwinTownBisonFan »

Setting aside my pipe dream -

I think they should be eyeballing Milwaukee, UIC or Omaha. UMKC is probably already on the phone - after their inexplicable decision to go to the WAC... who the hell knows what they are thinking.
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by clenz »

TwinTownBisonFan wrote:
SDHornet wrote: If Creighton is gone, who does the MVC pick up? Summitt has to be pretty shaky right about now.
MVC should eye up the three Dakota schools - and let the A-10 or Horizon snipe Bradley and Evansville and go all-sports. Wichita would then be properly incentivized to bring back football.
Not going to happen outside of a NDSU fans (wet)dream.

There is a really strange thing in play with the MVC right now.

*The MVC NEEDS to make sure WSU stays happy...period. They are not bringing football back anytime school, the fanbase (outside of a small minority) is perfectly happy being a basketball school. By doing so they have a ton of money to dump into keeping top coaches, facilities, etc... in every sport. They pay their basketball coach 1.5 million dollars a year, with a private jet. WSU is a tough read on if they have options or not.

*The MVC NEEDS to keep the private/non-football schools happy. The MVC is at a crossroads right now VERY similar to what the Big East just faced with football/non football schools. The privates and non football schools need to be kept happy. The school that comes in CAN NOT threaten the non-football schools and move the balance of the conference from basketball to football. Even the football schools in the MVC are basketball first schools...this is something that the Dakota fan bases don't understand when they don't get why MVC schools fans don't like the idea of football schools. UNI is the closest to being a football school, and it's probably about 50.1-54% football to 49.9-46% basketball.

* Geography has always been important to the MVC, and will always be important - HOWEVER, I'm willing to back off of how important I've stated in the past due to recent rumors. At this point I'm willing to put it more on market/potential market. I see some schools that may be outside of the footprint that will get calls and serious talks even though they are outside of the footprint because of market/coverage. A small fraction of a large market is better than a large portion of a small market. What I mean by that is, on the MVC forum a poster did a break down because a NDSU fan said that SDSU's market was over a million people and that is a market that is too good to pass up.

Here is the Sioux Falls, SD DMA market...there is no chance of growth, or major impact on revenue.

Image

Look how much space is needed to get to a million viewers...and 99% of that market doesn't give a shit about SDSU/college sports...they sure a hell won't care about UNI/SIU/WSU/ISUx2/Drake/etc...

This was from a WSU poster - if we are adding Fargo, here is the area that the MVC can explore with geography being taken out of the equation - we can add 3/4th of the country
If Indy State drove the same distance from Terra Haute to Fargo east they would wind up in the Atlantic Ocean. If they drove straight south they'd wind up in the Gulf.

Same for several of the other schools.

MSU and Wichita are closer to Denver and Dallas than to Fargo. Cities that are approximately the same distance (+/- one hour by car): San Antonio, New Orleans, Houston, Birmingham, Knoxville, Cincinnati, Green Bay and Minneapolis.

A rough map of all the places that are closer than Fargo to Springfield is below (rough partially because it is a Mercator projection, which becomes distorted east/west at high latitudes, but isn't too bad until you get into Canada)

Image





To make a lot of words short...The top targets - in what I assume the order is - is as follows

1A - Saint Louis
----From the sound of the reports at least 1, if not 2 or all 3 of my 1's, are going to end up out of the new BE/A10 deal. SLU has long been wanted by the MVC (who is headquarters in St. Louis and the MVC plays it's conference tourney in St. Louis at the Scott Trade Center). Their high ups have always thought they were above the MVC and wanted that east coast market...sounds like they are losing that hope. Great fit and keeps almost every existing MVC member 100% happy. Likely a very long shot, but very much worth phone calls.

1B - Dayton
----See SLU for the most part. Dayton is a a yearly NCAA host, that could easily tie the MVC name to it...HUGE market for the MVC to get into. Keeps almost every MVC member very happy.

1C - some other school left from the A10
---VCU/St. Joe's/Richmond/UMASS/etc...

All of my 1's are very long shots, but will be some of the first schools to get calls/most calls

2 - Denver
---Private school in a huge market. Small chunk of it, but growing. Really investing in their programs and getting flights to Denver is easy as hell. Look at the photo above to see that they are actually no further than Fargo. The potential of getting into Denver market is great. Might mean having to move conference tournament a little further west - Maybe Kansas City (which would keep WSU very happy) or rotating it, but well worth it.

3 - ORU
---Seems to be a name I see a lot of - I'm very meh on them, but I hear them a lot from people who seem to be connected.

4. -UW-M
---May not keep WSU all that happy but in footprint and Milwaukee is a good market....

5 - UI-C
--- Chicago has long been a conveted market for the MVC. May upset WSU in the fact it shifts the cofnerence east more and means the conference tourney is likely to always be in STL or CHI...maybe we see it go to KC to keep WSU happy though.

6 - Detroit
--- Coming form nowhere, but see a ton of love for them lately

7 - UM-KC
--- They fucked up in the WAC decision and I think they know it. The KC market is wanted, it may keep WSU happy in being a western team. They have a lot of improving to do though.

8 - Valpo/Loyola/Murray State
--- Teams I'm hearing a lot of latey. Not sure how I feel about any of them...don't seem to be a ton of advantages to any of them, but I'm hearing them from those who are more connected than I.




There is a LONG LONG list of teams that are thought of in higher regard than the Dakotas...

I hope the Valley takes a HUGE step and goes after Cinci, Tulsa, Memphis, etc...



If the Valley goes south I hope Illinois State and UNI hook up and push for some #MACtion.
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by Fresno St. Alum »

So the real part of the list is Denver, probably all but MSU and WSU against them b/c of distance
UWM haven't been good for a while
UIC haven't been good for a while but the best market
Murray St. is great but MVFC would have to go to 11(they didn't take UND b/c 11 was bad for MVfC)
UMKC sucks and always has, they had to downgrade from the Summit and were bribed by getting to host 3 WAC tourneys
Loyola is the private version of UIC but suckier
Detroit too far east and probably an A10 option
Valpo works
ORU least resistance (private, close to WSU)
Belmont also real good and in the footprint closer to more school than WSU
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by clenz »

Fresno St. Alum wrote:So the real part of the list is Denver, probably all but MSU and WSU against them b/c of distance
UWM haven't been good for a while
UIC haven't been good for a while but the best market
Murray St. is great but MVFC would have to go to 11(they didn't take UND b/c 11 was bad for MVfC)
UMKC sucks and always has, they had to downgrade from the Summit and were bribed by getting to host 3 WAC tourneys
Loyola is the private version of UIC but suckier
Detroit too far east and probably an A10 option
Valpo works
ORU least resistance (private, close to WSU)
Belmont also real good and in the footprint closer to more school than WSU
This is something that was passed to me from panthernation
After doing a little more research I think you're right about Milwaukee being top choice to join Missouri Valley(other then st.louis). They just recently moved to Milwaukee Bucks old stadium which has over 10,000 seats. They are the 2nd biggest university in Wisconsin(2nd to Badgers). Have 30,000 students enrolled there and have a basketball budget that would rank 4th in the MVC. Have 6 tournament appearances including 3 in the last ten years, including a sweet 16 appearance in 2005.
Denver's geography isn't a huge issue because of how easy getting to Denver is.
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by TwinTownBisonFan »

Given that the MVC doesn't have all the cards - they seem likely to be caught in a bind anyway.

The Big East/Catholic 7 split is probably not the last salvo... poaching Butler, St. Louis, Xavier, Creighton and Dayton lays out a road map for the A-10 and Horizon League to pilfer the non-football schools from the MVC.

I think the split at the FBS level is the next step in an evolution away from conferences that mix non-football and football schools. The MVC crossroads is that they by in large are NOT a non-football conference... and if I were sitting in the Horizon League office - I would have burned down the phone lines at Wichita, Drake, Bradley and Evansville already to bring them in and make the move to make the Horizon the big midwestern non-football mid-major.
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by SDHornet »

TwinTownBisonFan wrote:Given that the MVC doesn't have all the cards - they seem likely to be caught in a bind anyway.

The Big East/Catholic 7 split is probably not the last salvo... poaching Butler, St. Louis, Xavier, Creighton and Dayton lays out a road map for the A-10 and Horizon League to pilfer the non-football schools from the MVC.

I think the split at the FBS level is the next step in an evolution away from conferences that mix non-football and football schools. The MVC crossroads is that they by in large are NOT a non-football conference... and if I were sitting in the Horizon League office - I would have burned down the phone lines at Wichita, Drake, Bradley and Evansville already to bring them in and make the move to make the Horizon the big midwestern non-football mid-major.
Interesting take, but the MVFC is its own entity correct? They could add any FB only members to discourage a conference from sponsoring FB.
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by clenz »

SDHornet wrote:
TwinTownBisonFan wrote:Given that the MVC doesn't have all the cards - they seem likely to be caught in a bind anyway.

The Big East/Catholic 7 split is probably not the last salvo... poaching Butler, St. Louis, Xavier, Creighton and Dayton lays out a road map for the A-10 and Horizon League to pilfer the non-football schools from the MVC.

I think the split at the FBS level is the next step in an evolution away from conferences that mix non-football and football schools. The MVC crossroads is that they by in large are NOT a non-football conference... and if I were sitting in the Horizon League office - I would have burned down the phone lines at Wichita, Drake, Bradley and Evansville already to bring them in and make the move to make the Horizon the big midwestern non-football mid-major.
Interesting take, but the MVFC is its own entity correct? They could add any FB only members to discourage a conference from sponsoring FB.
Yes, the MVC and MVFC are 2 separate conferences

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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by TwinTownBisonFan »

clenz wrote:
SDHornet wrote: Interesting take, but the MVFC is its own entity correct? They could add any FB only members to discourage a conference from sponsoring FB.
Yes, the MVC and MVFC are 2 separate conferences

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They are - but that's not really what I'm getting at. It's a cultural difference between the schools that have full-scholly football and those that don't. A conference like the Horizon can lure away the Bradley's and Drake's of the conference as a result. I just don't think Creighton is the last domino to fall in the midwest. I think the A-10 could either look to re-acquire some hoops footprint - and move west by attacking the Horizon and MVC - or keep themselves confined to the east and attack the CAA.

In either case the Horizon is currently at 9... Bradley is in their footprint - and certainly their kind of target. Evansville, a former member (back when they were the MCC) would also be a target. This would leave them with 11 - and probably looking for a 12th - I actually think Oakland would be their next target.
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by clenz »

TwinTownBisonFan wrote:
clenz wrote: Yes, the MVC and MVFC are 2 separate conferences

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They are - but that's not really what I'm getting at. It's a cultural difference between the schools that have full-scholly football and those that don't. A conference like the Horizon can lure away the Bradley's and Drake's of the conference as a result. I just don't think Creighton is the last domino to fall in the midwest. I think the A-10 could either look to re-acquire some hoops footprint - and move west by attacking the Horizon and MVC - or keep themselves confined to the east and attack the CAA.

In either case the Horizon is currently at 9... Bradley is in their footprint - and certainly their kind of target. Evansville, a former member (back when they were the MCC) would also be a target. This would leave them with 11 - and probably looking for a 12th - I actually think Oakland would be their next target.
That is exactly the reason why the Dakota's will likely never get a "real" look beyond exploring every option unless there is a mass exodus of schools from the MVC.

The football schools in the MVC are still very much so basketball schools. It's why the conference tournament draws about 80k fans through the doors over 4 days in the Scott Trade Center and is one of the top 3 or 4 drawing conference tournaments every single year of any conference.

That's why if you read anything that I've typed, or any fan of an MVC institution you'll see the schools that are wanted/being looked at most closely are private and/or non-football/basketball centric.

We realize there isn't going to be a direct replacement for Creighton. They play in an 18,000 seat arena that they sell out every game, with the resources of a lot of power 6 schools.

HOWEVER, a school that's only real interest is football and all other sports a distant second isn't going to get an invite, even with "resources" isn't going to get a serious look.

You can talk about the Horizon taking MVC schools...the MVC has a name that is ∞ more respected across the nation than the Horizon. Depending how things fall with the new Big East the MVC and A10 are going to cannibalize the Horizon and Summit for basketball schools well before one of the A10/MVC schools start going the otherway.

The only way the Dakotas/football first schools are going to get into the Valley and it actually becomes a football conference is if the privates/basketball only schools feel as though the conference is looking for it to be a football conference and take off.

The fact that the MVC and MVFC are TWO SEPARATE CONFERENCES is a big deal as well as of now. If the MVC wanted to become a football conference they would need to add football as a sport, which would take more resources than they would want to spend on it.
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by FargoBison »

One thing I do find hilarious is that a few MVC fans think that being good at football is a bad thing, yeah it is terrible that NDSU football makes money and is very well supported. I guess if you have worthless non-scholarship football program that nobody cares about and lose money it is better according to some.

Clenz you talk about adding Cincy, Memphis, Tulsa...you need FBS football to do that. The conferences those schools are members of aren't simply going to let them separate the two, especially when hoops at two of those schools brings an incredible amount of value to a conference while their football programs have been inconsistent(Cincy) to terrible(Memphis).

To position itself to add those schools the MVC should add NDSU(since it is the most FBS ready MVFC team) and NMSU. Convince WSU to add football as well, their alumni have talked about. Then they should petition the NCAA to allow the conference to move up to the FBS and begin to work towards that goal of being in a postion to add the kind of teams you talk about. There is a void for FBS football below the Big 10 and Big 12 level in this area of the country

At some point maybe the public schools need to formulate some kind of vision instead of just being led around by the private schools, especially when I'm not sure the interests of the private schools mesh with the public schools. The private schools from what I can tell would love if every team disbanded their football program, three of the public schools have talked about the FBS and others are making improvements to their facilities or have made improvements. Football is obviously important to those schools.
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by Fresno St. Alum »

Denver or Belmont most likely candidates to replace Creighton

http://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc ... r/1973937/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

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According to a person with direct knowledge of the league's thinking, Denver and Belmont would have significant support as candidates to replace Creighton, with Loyola (Ill.) also getting consideration and Oral Roberts looming as a longshot with less support.
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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by clenz »

And....what have I been saying all along but you fucks didnt want to listen

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Re: D-I break down of what could happen the next 3 years

Post by Fresno St. Alum »

clenz wrote:And....what have I been saying all along but you fucks didnt want to listen

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Shit I did, I switched Belmont to my projections right after you said, plus my WSU guys on the CSN board. Then I over thought it and switched to ORU for a few days, now back to Belmont.

So Clenz, who do you have Denver or Belmont?
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