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I am going to go ahead and hesitantly pick Oregon. But I think people are over estimating Oregon because of the big point spread vs. Florida State due to the turnovers and under estimating how much talent Ohio State has. I think Ohio State is the more talented team. It's just that Oregon has a really good system and a quarterback who is a huge dual threat and will probably be picked at or near #1 overall in the next NFL draft.

But Ohio State beat a lot better team than Florida State to get to this point. I think Ohio State has more overall talent; though a lot of it is young. Also, until proven otherwise I have to give the "head coach" edge to Ohio State. This is not the Florida State head coach. This is Urban Meyer.

We shall see.

They BOTH lose....

I'm amazed and yet impressed that Ohio St in in the NC game - they've been playing lights out lately. Urban Meyer knows the Oregon system as well as any opposing coach in the country I'd think.

That being said I still have to pick the Ducks for two reasons: 1 - Mariota - while he may not translate into a stud NFL QB, depending on where he goes & what kid of offense they'll run, he is an absolute magician in this offensive system at Oregon. His speed is off the charts, and his snap quick decision making is uncanny. 2 - The Oregon pace. It's too late in the year & too little time for OSU to physically prepare for the Oregon pace. OSU's prep this week has been all mental & scheme against it. OSU doesn't have a deep defense to begin with so unless can sustain 2nd half drives against Oregon they're going to be sucking major wind in the 2nd half which usually means Oregon scoring major points.

6 INTs in 1100+ career attempts. That doesn't even make sense.

bluehenbillk wrote:I'm amazed and yet impressed that Ohio St in in the NC game - they've been playing lights out lately. Urban Meyer knows the Oregon system as well as any opposing coach in the country I'd think.

That being said I still have to pick the Ducks for two reasons: 1 - Mariota - while he may not translate into a stud NFL QB, depending on where he goes & what kid of offense they'll run, he is an absolute magician in this offensive system at Oregon. His speed is off the charts, and his snap quick decision making is uncanny. 2 - The Oregon pace. It's too late in the year & too little time for OSU to physically prepare for the Oregon pace. OSU's prep this week has been all mental & scheme against it. OSU doesn't have a deep defense to begin with so unless can sustain 2nd half drives against Oregon they're going to be sucking major wind in the 2nd half which usually means Oregon scoring major points.

I keep reading this and I think he's getting under-sold. Accuracy and the ability to quickly process information are the two things that make an elite NFL quarterback. He obviously has both and they are portable to any system. Plus, while there's been some back-lash against the spread/read option stuff at the NFL level this season, I still think the pro game offense is evolving towards this.

In any event, he's a noticeably better quarterback than Winston is.

I can see the argument both ways. You're going to hear people over the next couple of months talk about the few # of "NFL throws" that Mariota is forced to make while running the Oregon offense.

bluehenbillk wrote:I can see the argument both ways. You're going to hear people over the next couple of months talk about the few # of "NFL throws" that Mariota is forced to make while running the Oregon offense.

And that's where NFL experts miss the boat. Vince Young, Jamarcus Russell, Jeff George, and Jay Cutler could all make the throws.

kalm wrote:

bluehenbillk wrote:I can see the argument both ways. You're going to hear people over the next couple of months talk about the few # of "NFL throws" that Mariota is forced to make while running the Oregon offense.

And that's where NFL experts miss the boat. Vince Young, Jamarcus Russell, Jeff George, and Jay Cutler could all make the throws.

But just because guys who did have the arm and could make the throws didn't succeed doesn't mean that you just get rid of the arm question altogether.

Mariota could very well have issues that are hard to overcome in the NFL. He's accurate in the passes he throws now, which aren't terribly demanding. He'll need an NFL offense that won't ask him to make those throws. Could certainly happen. Russell Wilson isn't the greatest passer in the world (although not bad for sure) and they've made it work in that offense. Same could happen for Mariota.

As for the game, I think it matters how much Ohio State is able to run the ball on Oregon. I thought FSU got away from the running game when they could've had real success there. It chews up clock and it puts a lot of pressure on Oregon's front 3 which isn't very deep at all. Ohio State should be able to run the ball to great effect, both with the running back and with the QB. The game's going to be a lot closer than most would think. I think it's Oregon's to lose and I'll pick them by a field goal, but in a game that tight anything can happen.

SuperHornet wrote:They BOTH lose....

I get it, neither has a player that leaves snaily trails.

You should be an Oregon fan, they do have a lot of slugs in Oregon, which is similar, and nice.

OSU doesn't have a deep defense to begin with so unless can sustain 2nd half drives against Oregon they're going to be sucking major wind in the 2nd half which usually means Oregon scoring major points.

Yes I think that is a key. Ohio State's offense needs to stay on the field and score points.

But there IS one way to stop an offense like that: Stop it. If a team is able to play a team like Oregon and actually STOP their offense with a lot of three-and-outs then all of a sudden it's OREGON'S defense that's got the fatigue problem

I realize that's a tall order. But that IS one potential risk of running a hurry up offense like that. The opponent goes on a long drive where your defense expends a lot of injury then you come in and do a VERY quick three-and-out and the defense is back on the field. Then if the other team does another long drive and you come out and do it again it's starting to get critical. And, really, it doesn't take a "three-and-out" to create fatigue problems for the defense if a team is speeding it up like Oregon does. If they make one or two first downs then get stopped the defense still doesn't get much rest.

You see what I'm talking about.

I think Oregon would've had a fairly high risk of that sort of thing happening to them against Alabama. We'll see if Ohio State can swing it.

I personally think the best way to win championships is to have an offense that is deliberate and wears the opponent down while ALSO allowing its defense to rest. Like North Dakota State on the FCS level. Or like Nebraska was under Osborne. Strong defense and deliberate, ball control offense. To me if you can get to the point of doing that successfully THAT is the ticket for winning championships.

You know, like you see North Dakota State in the fourth quarter lining up with what is essentially two fullbacks in the backfield and the opponent's defense is gassed by them banging on them for the first three quarters and they're gashing out chunks of yardage running right at them. To me that's a LOT more effective, if you can do it, than whiz bang fast break offense.

Wedgebuster wrote:

SuperHornet wrote:They BOTH lose....

I get it, neither has a player that leaves snaily trails.

You should be an Oregon fan, they do have a lot of slugs in Oregon, which is similar, and nice.

I'm not a fan of UC Santa Cruz....

This is great. I picked Oregon and I'll stick with it. But I keep thinking, "Ohio State beat a better team than Oregon to get here."

And I really do think that's true. Plus the more I've looked into it due to various discussions the more I'm convinced that Ohio State has more overall talent. I started off just kind of assuming it. Then every time I looked at something like NFLDraftScout position ratings by class and previous recruiting rankings it made me think it might be even a bigger edge in overall talent than I thought. And Urban Meyer is the Bomb coaching wise. Almost makes me want to pull the trigger and say Ohio State is the obvious favorite as the more talented team with the better head coach.

But that quarterback for Oregon is really a difference maker.

Should be interesting.

Alabama is not a better team than Oregon. If they were they'd still be playing.

GannonFan wrote:

kalm wrote:
And that's where NFL experts miss the boat. Vince Young, Jamarcus Russell, Jeff George, and Jay Cutler could all make the throws.

But just because guys who did have the arm and could make the throws didn't succeed doesn't mean that you just get rid of the arm question altogether.

Mariota could very well have issues that are hard to overcome in the NFL. He's accurate in the passes he throws now, which aren't terribly demanding. He'll need an NFL offense that won't ask him to make those throws. Could certainly happen. Russell Wilson isn't the greatest passer in the world (although not bad for sure) and they've made it work in that offense. Same could happen for Mariota.

As for the game, I think it matters how much Ohio State is able to run the ball on Oregon. I thought FSU got away from the running game when they could've had real success there. It chews up clock and it puts a lot of pressure on Oregon's front 3 which isn't very deep at all. Ohio State should be able to run the ball to great effect, both with the running back and with the QB. The game's going to be a lot closer than most would think. I think it's Oregon's to lose and I'll pick them by a field goal, but in a game that tight anything can happen.

Sounds to me like he needs to be drafted by Philadelphia.

Total Offense: Oregon 3rd (552.9 ypg), Ohio State 9th (509.7 ypg)
Scoring Offense: Oregon 2nd (47.2 ppg), Ohio State 5th (45.0 ppg)
Rushing Offense: Ohio State 9th (262.2 ypg), Oregon 17th (241.9 ypg)
Passing offense: Oregon 11th (311 ypg), Ohio State 51st (247.5 ypg)

Total defense: Ohio State 17th (333.6 ypg), Oregon 84th (421.9 ypg)
Scoring defense: Ohio State 26th (22.1 ppg), Oregon 27th (22.3 ppg)
Rushing defense: Ohio State 34th (142 ypg), Oregon 49th (156.1 ypg)
Passing defense: Ohio State 16th (191.6 ypg), Oregon 108th (265.9 ypg)

People keep talking abut the Oregon offense, but are forgetting about the fact that their defense isn't very good, not nearly as good as Ohio State's. And Ohio State has a very good offense that's only a notch below Oregon's. Statistically, there is a bigger disparity between the 2 defenses than the 2 offenses.

Ohio State has score in the 60s once, scored 50+ 6 times, and scored at least 42 in 10 of there 14 games. Only 1 time have they been held under 31, and that was their loss to VT in the 2nd game (the week after only putting up 34 on Navy- they obviously had issues back in early Sept). I know more people are predicting Oregon because of what they did vs FSU, but remember when FSU had the ball:
-2nd qtr, 3 times 1st and goal after moving the ball up and down the field, only 6 points.
-3rd qtr, 3 straight turnovers after moving the ball up and down the field, led to 14 Oregon points.
Don't see Oregon doing that to OSU, or holding OSU under upper 30s.

Think this game will be within a TD, with both teams scoring in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

Ohio State 42
Oregon 40

BDKJMU wrote:People keep talking abut the Oregon offense, but are forgetting about the fact that their defense isn't very good, not nearly as good as Ohio State's. And Ohio State has a very good offense that's only a notch below Oregon's. Statistically, there is a bigger disparity between the 2 defenses than the 2 offenses.

Ohio State has score in the 60s once, scored 50+ 6 times, and scored at least 42 in 10 of there 14 games. Only 1 time have they been held under 31, and that was their loss to VT in the 2nd game (the week after only putting up 34 on Navy- they obviously had issues back in early Sept). I know more people are predicting Oregon because of what they did vs FSU, but remember when FSU had the ball:
-2nd qtr, 3 times 1st and goal after moving the ball up and down the field, only 6 points.
-3rd qtr, 3 straight turnovers after moving the ball up and down the field, led to 14 Oregon points.
Don't see Oregon doing that to OSU, or holding OSU under upper 30s.

Think this game will be within a TD, with both teams scoring in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

You're right that Oregon's D statistically doesn't impress but they're a top-30 defense in terms of points allowed per game.

bluehenbillk wrote:

BDKJMU wrote:People keep talking abut the Oregon offense, but are forgetting about the fact that their defense isn't very good, not nearly as good as Ohio State's. And Ohio State has a very good offense that's only a notch below Oregon's. Statistically, there is a bigger disparity between the 2 defenses than the 2 offenses.

Ohio State has score in the 60s once, scored 50+ 6 times, and scored at least 42 in 10 of there 14 games. Only 1 time have they been held under 31, and that was their loss to VT in the 2nd game (the week after only putting up 34 on Navy- they obviously had issues back in early Sept). I know more people are predicting Oregon because of what they did vs FSU, but remember when FSU had the ball:
-2nd qtr, 3 times 1st and goal after moving the ball up and down the field, only 6 points.
-3rd qtr, 3 straight turnovers after moving the ball up and down the field, led to 14 Oregon points.
Don't see Oregon doing that to OSU, or holding OSU under upper 30s.

Think this game will be within a TD, with both teams scoring in the upper 30s to mid 40s.

You're right that Oregon's D statistically doesn't impress but they're a top-30 defense in terms of points allowed per game.

And the Pac 12 has some decent offenses.

I see this going like their MSU game.

Oregon by 7 or less.

A team with a guy starting his THIRD game at quarterback vs. a team that's lost a player to injury and another to suspension...not sure how THAT will turn out, though Oregon has already struck first....

My son is wondering why OSU has pot leaves on their helmets.

You have a Heitman trophy winner at QB and run it up the middle on 4th and goal from the 3?

kalm wrote:You have a Heitman trophy winner at QB and run it up the middle on 4th and goal from the 3?

Should have kicked FG

Turnovers keeping Oregon in it