Sagarin Says...

[JohnStOnge]

Western Illinois by 19

Chattanooga by 7

Coastal Carolina by 3

Sam Houston State by 2

South Dakota State by 6

William & Mary by 21

New Hampshire by 9

Northern Iowa by 15

We'll see what happens. Remember, the real "objective" of the Sagarin model is to predict the point differential. The idea is to get bias (the average of the actual point spread minus the predicted point spread) as close as possible to zero and to minimize the mean squared error (essentially the average of the squares of actual point spread minus predicted point spread). Or you could look at just the average of the absolute values of the actual point spreads minus predicted point spreads as kind of gauging the same thing as mean squared error is.

Obviously if the system does a good job of doing those things it should predict the winner most of the time. But picking winners is not the objective per se.

[Mvemjsunpx]

The Sagarins picked the Griz to lose to the Bobcats.


Just saying…

[kalm]

The Sagarins picked the Griz to lose to the Bobcats.


Just saying…

One more in a long line of examples of why the computers are deeply flawed.

[JohnStOnge]

The Sagarins picked the Griz to lose to the Bobcats.


Just saying…

One more in a long line of examples of why the computers are deeply flawed.

As though anybody or any prediction system is right in every case. You have to look at how any person or system does over a large number of games.

[kalm]

One more in a long line of examples of why the computers are deeply flawed.

As though anybody or any prediction system is right in every case. You have to look at how any person or system does over a large number of games.

But no human in his right mine (even a Cat fan) would have predicted that.

And I'm working off a long history and large number of instances where Sagarin gave head scratchers.

[putter]

Hopefully no one went to Vegas relying on these pics......

[AZGrizFan]

21 losses in Wa/Griz in 30 years and Sagarin picks the Griz to lose?

[JohnStOnge]

Guys, Montana won. But picking South Dakota State to beat Montana this year is not an absurd pick. It's a top MVFC team. No reasonable person would've been shocked if South Dakota State had won that game.

[Gil Dobie]

Computer didn't factor the Montana QB being out for most of the season and his affect on the team. Gustafson is a huge difference maker.

[93henfan]

Western Illinois by 19 missed by 2

Chattanooga by 7 missed by 23

Coastal Carolina by 3 missed by 6

Sam Houston State by 2 missed by 1

South Dakota State by 6 missed by 13

William & Mary by 21 missed by 18

New Hampshire by 9 missed by 16

Northern Iowa by 15 missed by 21

So, Sagarin was off by 12.5 points per game average.

---

Now let's check the 5Dimes offshore book, who most of us turn to for FCS lines:

Western Illinois by 17 - nailed it

Chattanooga by 10 - missed by 20

Coastal Carolina by 3 - missed by 6

Southern Utah by 1 - missed by 4

South Dakota State by 1 - missed by 8

William and Mary by 24.5 - missed by 21.5

New Hampshire by 11 - missed by 18

Northern Iowa by 19.5 - missed by 16.5

5dimes was off by 11.75 points per game average.

Also keep in mind that a sportsbook's goal is not to predict games, but rather to get 50% of people to bet on each side of their line. Even with that different goal, the sportsbook was a better predictor than Sagarin.

[HI54UNI]

Guys, Montana won. But picking South Dakota State to beat Montana this year is not an absurd pick. It's a top MVFC team. No reasonable person would've been shocked if South Dakota State had won that game.

I don't get why everybody has all this love for SDSU. They're an OK team and have been for the last few years. They're like UNI has been the last few years. An OK team but not worthy of the rankings they have been given.

[Mvemjsunpx]

Guys, Montana won. But picking South Dakota State to beat Montana this year is not an absurd pick. It's a top MVFC team. No reasonable person would've been shocked if South Dakota State had won that game.

I don't get why everybody has all this love for SDSU. They're an OK team and have been for the last few years. They're like UNI has been the last few years. An OK team but not worthy of the rankings they have been given.

They were an 8-3 Missouri Valley team. Just being 8-3 by itself was a pretty notable accomplishment this season.

And the Sagarins still have them as the #5 FCS team.

[kalm]

I don't get why everybody has all this love for SDSU. They're an OK team and have been for the last few years. They're like UNI has been the last few years. An OK team but not worthy of the rankings they have been given.

They were an 8-3 Missouri Valley team. Just being 8-3 by itself was a pretty notable accomplishment this season.

And the Sagarins still have them as the #5 FCS team.

This...and with wins against Kansas, ISUr, and a demolition of SUU. They were a top 4 seed until the last game of the regular season.

[JohnStOnge]

This...and with wins against Kansas, ISUr, and a demolition of SUU.

Really. They beat a Big 5 team, albeit a bad one. They beat the number 2 seed in the FCS playoffs. And they beat the Big Sky champ by 55-10. How could one possibly say it was ridiculous to pick them to win their first round game against an unseeded team?

[kalm]

This...and with wins against Kansas, ISUr, and a demolition of SUU.

Really. They beat a Big 5 team, albeit a bad one. They beat the number 2 seed in the FCS playoffs. And they beat the Big Sky champ by 55-10. How could one possibly say it was ridiculous to pick them to win their first round game against an unseeded team?

I was talking about the Cats.

[Grizalltheway]

The playoffs are all about momentum. The Griz had a lot, the Jacks had none.

[JohnStOnge]

Richmond by 1
The Citadel by 1
James Madison by 19
Illinois State by 15
Jacksonville State by 7
North Dakota State by 16
McNeese State by 2
Northern Iowa by 4

Actually when I do William & Mary at Richmond and round it to the nearest whole point I get 0. But if you do the right of the decimal point it's Richmond by 0.14. Since you can't win by less than 1 it's 1.

The interesting thing to me is that North Dakota State dropped down from the top of the FCS pile after opening with a loss at Montana. They lost their starting quarterback but the Model, which doesn't "see" anything but the scores, eventually moved them back to the top of the pile. Guess that means they've been doing pretty well with their backup quarterback.

[93henfan]

Richmond by 1
The Citadel by 1
James Madison by 19
Illinois State by 15
Jacksonville State by 7
North Dakota State by 16
McNeese State by 2
Northern Iowa by 4

For later reference, here are 5dimes lines at 10:30am EST:

Richmond/W&M pick 'em
Citadel by 1
JMU by 21.5
Illinois State by 17
Jacksonville State by 8.5
North Dakota State by 10.5
McNeese State by 2
Northern Iowa by 6.5

[93henfan]

God damn that Colgate bet is tempting. I just don't see JMU routing them by four scores. This is not a great JMU team.

[JohnStOnge]

The 5dimes lines are very similar to the Sagarin spreads. Consistent with my belief that nowadays people establish opening lines based on some power rating system then adjust them some depending on where the money goes.

Richmond by 1
The Citadel by 1
James Madison by 19
Illinois State by 15
Jacksonville State by 7
North Dakota State by 16
McNeese State by 2
Northern Iowa by 4

For later reference, here are 5dimes lines at 10:30am EST:

Richmond/W&M pick 'em
Citadel by 1
JMU by 21.5
Illinois State by 17
Jacksonville State by 8.5
North Dakota State by 10.5
McNeese State by 2
Northern Iowa by 6.5

[93henfan]

The 5dimes lines are very similar to the Sagarin spreads. Consistent with my belief that nowadays people establish opening lines based on some power rating system then adjust them some depending on where the money goes.

For later reference, here are 5dimes lines at 10:30am EST:

Richmond/W&M pick 'em
Citadel by 1
JMU by 21.5
Illinois State by 17
Jacksonville State by 8.5
North Dakota State by 10.5
McNeese State by 2
Northern Iowa by 6.5

They were significantly more different in the opening round. The bettors just moved them closer to Sagarin this week.

[Ibanez]

God damn that Colgate bet is tempting. I just don't see JMU routing them by four scores. This is not a great JMU team.

Please say you didn't beat against Colgate.

[93henfan]

God damn that Colgate bet is tempting. I just don't see JMU routing them by four scores. This is not a great JMU team.

Please say you didn't beat against Colgate.

What? You must have misread me. You'd have been a fool to take JMU giving 21.5. I just watched them in person three weeks ago in Newark and they're terrible.

[Ibanez]

Please say you didn't beat against Colgate.

What? You must have misread me. You'd have been a fool to take JMU giving 21.5. I just watched them in person three weeks ago in Newark and they're terrible.

Probably. I always misread betting lines.

[JohnStOnge]

Illinois State by 14
Jacksonville State by 13
North Dakota State by 8
Sam Houston State by 18