Fall 2021 Prognostication

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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by 89Hen »

dbackjon wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 3:01 pm
89Hen wrote: Sat May 15, 2021 4:49 am

It's May. I don't even know who the Hens are playing yet.
https://fbschedules.com/delaware-football-schedule/
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by BDKJMU »

89Hen wrote: Mon May 17, 2021 3:46 pm
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by BDKJMU »

I normally say preseason polls are as worthless as titties on a bull, but this upcoming season is a little different, as teams will be back in summer camp less than 3 months after the NC game, and most teams should have almost everyone back due to the free year.
-Some teams will be losing a few starting/2 deep seniors to graduation who elect not to return.
-The transfer portal free for all will play a role also.

Big ? is the teams who dnp the winter/spring, esp the 4 qtrfinalist teams from 2019. I included all of them in my poll.:
-Montana: I know they lost maybe the best WR in the country, but this will be Hauck‘s 3rd? season ack.
-Montana St- didn’t they get a new HC?
-Sac St- Know nothing about.
-UCA: 5-4 in the fall, but 4-2 vs FCS in fall, including 39-28 loss to NDSU with Lnce & Radunz

The BDKJMU preseason 2021 poll.
-Didn’t include non AQ playoff conference teams (Ivy, MEAC, SWAC).
(—): position in the final Stats poll of 2020/21 winter/spring season.

1.SHSU (1)
2.SDSU (2)
3.JMU (3)
4.NDSU (5)
5.UD (4)
6.UND (6)
7.SIU (8)
8.Weber (9)
9.Monmouth (11)
10.JSU (7)
11.VMI (12)
12.EWU (10)
*13.Montana —
14.UR (15)
15.VU (16)
16.MO St (13)
17.UCD (14)
*18.Sac St —
*19.Montana St—-
20.KSU (17)
21.URI (18)
22.Murray St (18)
23.SELA (20)
24.ETSU (21)
*25.UCA —

Top ORV:
-Sacred Heart (22)
-Nichols (25)
-UNI
-NAU
-HC
-Maine
-*Towson —
-Davidson
-UNH
-UIW
-Duquesne
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by UNI88 »

Will Gronowski be available for SDSU and if not how will that impact their season?

I love how UNI is being counted out after a 3-4 spring season in which their 4 losses were by a total of 15 points and all to teams that qualified for the playoffs.
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by BDKJMU »

UNI88 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 4:58 pm Will Gronowski be available for SDSU and if not how will that impact their season?

I love how UNI is being counted out after a 3-4 spring season in which their 4 losses were by a total of 15 points and all to teams that qualified for the playoffs.
-You can’t have UNI ranked ahead of SDSU, NDSU, UND, SIU, or Mo St. They didn‘t beat any of them.
-There isn’t a single team in the STATS (or my poll) that had a losing record this winter/spring . Where would you have them ranked in the end of the season and preseason polls (which will look very similar, more so than usual)? I could see an arguent for between 20th-25th as a 6th ranked MVFC team..
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by UNI88 »

BDKJMU wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 5:31 pm
UNI88 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 4:58 pm Will Gronowski be available for SDSU and if not how will that impact their season?

I love how UNI is being counted out after a 3-4 spring season in which their 4 losses were by a total of 15 points and all to teams that qualified for the playoffs.
-You can’t have UNI ranked ahead of SDSU, NDSU, UND, SIU, or Mo St. They didn‘t beat any of them.
-There isn’t a single team in the STATS (or my poll) that had a losing record this winter/spring . Where would you have them ranked in the end of the season and preseason polls (which will look very similar, more so than usual)? I could see an arguent for between 20th-25th as a 6th ranked MVFC team..
* argument

You misunderstand me. UNI has had some of its best years when it's not expected so I'm happy that expectations are low for the fall.
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by Gil Dobie »

UNI88 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 4:58 pm Will Gronowski be available for SDSU and if not how will that impact their season?

I love how UNI is being counted out after a 3-4 spring season in which their 4 losses were by a total of 15 points and all to teams that qualified for the playoffs.
Haven't heard for sure, but some are saying ACL.
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by SuperHornet »

Wow. The original report I heard on Gronowski said it was a groin injury, and perhaps that was involved somehow. But if it's an ACL, historically, recovery from that can be a crap shoot. The 2019 starter, J'Bore Gibbs, is said to be unavailable for the fall due to his own catastrophic injury. Currently on the roster are Gronowski and walk-on Rudy Voss. Also available is Karst Hunter, who is listed as an "athlete" on the roster (whatever THAT means), but played QB in high school. Another QB is coming in with the signing class, one Cade Rice, a 6'3", 210 lb player out of Springfield, OH.

https://www.argusleader.com/story/sport ... 120722001/
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by Winterborn »

UNI88 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 5:41 pm
BDKJMU wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 5:31 pm
-You can’t have UNI ranked ahead of SDSU, NDSU, UND, SIU, or Mo St. They didn‘t beat any of them.
-There isn’t a single team in the STATS (or my poll) that had a losing record this winter/spring . Where would you have them ranked in the end of the season and preseason polls (which will look very similar, more so than usual)? I could see an arguent for between 20th-25th as a 6th ranked MVFC team..
* argument

You misunderstand me. UNI has had some of its best years when it's not expected so I'm happy that expectations are low for the fall.
Aren't they low every year? :whistle:
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by UNI88 »

Winterborn wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:06 pm
UNI88 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 5:41 pm
* argument

You misunderstand me. UNI has had some of its best years when it's not expected so I'm happy that expectations are low for the fall.
Aren't they low every year? :whistle:
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by Gil Dobie »

UNI88 wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:24 pm
Winterborn wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:06 pm

Aren't they low every year? :whistle:
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by BDKJMU »

Obviously if Gronkowski can't go for SDSU, that would be huge. Certainly should drop them in the preseason polls at least a few spots, and from preseason #1 in the MVFC to 2, 3, or even 4. Do they pursue a transfer in the offseason, maybe a grad transfer?

Whos the most likely of the 4 quarterfinal teams from last (2019) season who sat out a full 2020/2021 season (Montana, Montana St, Sac St, UCA) to make the playoffs and be a contender? I assume Montana?

Possible sleepers not finishing Top 25 (to not only make the playoffs, but at least the 2nd round)..
-Citadel I see Cid mentioned.
-UNI? But if they are pre season #6 of so MVFC and Top 25 or high ORV, that's not much of a sleeper.
-4 or so CAA teams take your pick of UNH, Albany, Maine, Towson..

I'm sure are a few others..
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by HI54UNI »

Winterborn wrote: Wed May 19, 2021 8:06 pm
UNI88 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 5:41 pm

* argument

You misunderstand me. UNI has had some of its best years when it's not expected so I'm happy that expectations are low for the fall.
Aren't they low every year? :whistle:
No, expectations are high every year and there's always talk of how great they will be. But we have Mark Farley as our coach so we will be mediocre and not amount to anything.
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by kalm »

BDKJMU wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 5:40 pm Obviously if Gronkowski can't go for SDSU, that would be huge. Certainly should drop them in the preseason polls at least a few spots, and from preseason #1 in the MVFC to 2, 3, or even 4. Do they pursue a transfer in the offseason, maybe a grad transfer?

Whos the most likely of the 4 quarterfinal teams from last (2019) season who sat out a full 2020/2021 season (Montana, Montana St, Sac St, UCA) to make the playoffs and be a contender? I assume Montana?

Possible sleepers not finishing Top 25 (to not only make the playoffs, but at least the 2nd round)..
-Citadel I see Cid mentioned.
-UNI? But if they are pre season #6 of so MVFC and Top 25 or high ORV, that's not much of a sleeper.
-4 or so CAA teams take your pick of UNH, Albany, Maine, Towson..

I'm sure are a few others..
UCA played 9 games in 2020.

Playoff sleepers with a 2nd round appearance is a bit limiting. CAA at larges/last 4 in have a good shot of landing a PL, Pioneer, or NEC opponent in the first round. The others, and especially the Big Sky are more likely to face each other and often on the road.

Sleepers in general:

NW State was competitive in every game. Including SHSU.

Similar with ISUo.

I’d also add SEMO.
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by BDKJMU »

kalm wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 5:47 am
BDKJMU wrote: Thu May 20, 2021 5:40 pm Obviously if Gronkowski can't go for SDSU, that would be huge. Certainly should drop them in the preseason polls at least a few spots, and from preseason #1 in the MVFC to 2, 3, or even 4. Do they pursue a transfer in the offseason, maybe a grad transfer?

Whos the most likely of the 4 quarterfinal teams from last (2019) season who sat out a full 2020/2021 season (Montana, Montana St, Sac St, UCA) to make the playoffs and be a contender? I assume Montana?

Possible sleepers not finishing Top 25 (to not only make the playoffs, but at least the 2nd round)..
-Citadel I see Cid mentioned.
-UNI? But if they are pre season #6 of so MVFC and Top 25 or high ORV, that's not much of a sleeper.
-4 or so CAA teams take your pick of UNH, Albany, Maine, Towson..

I'm sure are a few others..
UCA played 9 games in 2020.

Playoff sleepers with a 2nd round appearance is a bit limiting. CAA at larges/last 4 in have a good shot of landing a PL, Pioneer, or NEC opponent in the first round. The others, and especially the Big Sky are more likely to face each other and often on the road.

Sleepers in general:

NW State was competitive in every game. Including SHSU.

Similar with ISUo.

I’d also add SEMO.
I know- they were 5-4. That’s why I said 2020/2021. I should specified winter/spring.
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by kalm »

BDKJMU wrote: Sat May 22, 2021 6:09 am
kalm wrote: Fri May 21, 2021 5:47 am

UCA played 9 games in 2020.

Playoff sleepers with a 2nd round appearance is a bit limiting. CAA at larges/last 4 in have a good shot of landing a PL, Pioneer, or NEC opponent in the first round. The others, and especially the Big Sky are more likely to face each other and often on the road.

Sleepers in general:

NW State was competitive in every game. Including SHSU.

Similar with ISUo.

I’d also add SEMO.
I know- they were 5-4. That’s why I said 2020/2021. I should specified winter/spring.
;)
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by BDKJMU »

STATS pre season poll last summer, with playoff teams bolded:

1. North Dakota State – 3,675 points (147 first-place votes)
2. James Madison – 3,411

3. Northern Iowa – 3,269
4. Weber State – 3,198
5. South Dakota State – 2,911

6. Montana State – 2,884
7. Montana – 2,753
8. Villanova – 2,499
9. Illinois State – 2,471
10. Kennesaw State – 2,178
11. Central Arkansas – 2,093
12. Sacramento State – 2,085
13. Austin Peay – 2,030
14. Nicholls – 1,392
15. Furman – 1,239
16. Wofford – 1,089
17. Albany – 825
18. Eastern Washington – 817
19. North Carolina A&T – 809
20. New Hampshire – 759
21. Southeastern Louisiana – 652
22. Sam Houston State – 597
23. Monmouth – 577
24. Southern Illinois – 568[/b]
25. Southeast Missouri – 499
Others Receiving Votes: Jacksonville State 357, Florida A&M 301, The Citadel 283, Central Connecticut State 200, Towson 199, Dartmouth 195, Delaware 193, Yale 193, Princeton 143, San Diego 104, North Dakota 66, South Carolina State 25, Alcorn State 22, Houston Baptist 19, Richmond 18, Chattanooga 16, Elon 15, Holy Cross 15, UIW 15, UT Martin 14, Portland State 12, Youngstown State 12, McNeese 10, UC Davis 9, Maine 7, Duquesne 5, Charleston Southern 4, Eastern Kentucky 2.
https://lionsports.net/news/2020/8/25/f ... -poll.aspx

Playoff teams unranked and no ORV:
-Mo St
-VMI
-Davidson
-Sacred Heart
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by BDKJMU »

1st Stats poll this past winter, with playoff teams bolded:
STATS Rankings as of 2/22/2021
Rank. School, Votes, Prev
1. North Dakota State (2-0), 1000 (40), 1
2. James Madison (1-0), 952, 2
3. South Dakota State (1-0), 918, 5
4. Weber State (0-0), 882, 4

5. UNI (0-1), 785, 3
6. Villanova (0-0), 782, 8
7. Illinois State (0-0), 730, 9
8. Kennesaw State (0-0), 686, 10
9. Nicholls (1-0), 665, 14
10. Furman (1-0), 658, 15
11. Wofford (1-0), 565, 16
12. Eastern Washington (0-0), 502, 18
13. Albany (0-0), 475, 17
14. North Dakota (1-0), 401, NR
15. New Hampshire (0-0), 392, 20
16. Jacksonville State (3-1), 347, NR
17. Sam Houston (0-0), 326, 22

18. Southeastern Louisiana (0-0), 322, 21
19. McNeese (1-0), 220, NR
20. Monmouth (0-0), 212, 23
21. Southeast Missouri State (0-1), 161, 25
22. Tarleton State (1-1), 159, NR
23. Tennessee Tech (1-0), 132, NR
24. Elon (1-0) ,129, NR
25. Delaware (0-0), 126, NR
Others: Austin Peay (125) , Southern Illinois (83) , Citadel (42) , Youngstown State (32) , ETSU (23) , Jackson State (22) , Chattanooga (21) , San Diego (19) , Richmond (18) , South Carolina State (14) , UC Davis (13) , Idaho (12) , Stony Brook (11) , UT Martin (7) , Maine (7)

Playoff teams unranked and no ORV: Same 4 as above + HC:
-Mo St
-VMI
-Davidson
-Sacred Heart
-HC

Biggest 2020/21 sleeper as far as making the playoffs IMHOP was VMI.

Biggest sleepers as far as making a run were (could argue which was bigger):
-SHSU: went from #22 in the summer preseason poll, #17 in the 1st winter poll, to winning the NC.
-UD: went from #32 ORV in the summer preseason poll, #25 in the 1st winter poll, to the semis.
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by BDKJMU »

UNI88 wrote: Tue May 18, 2021 4:58 pm Will Gronowski be available for SDSU and if not how will that impact their season?

I love how UNI is being counted out after a 3-4 spring season in which their 4 losses were by a total of 15 points and all to teams that qualified for the playoffs.
With Gronowski out with the ACL, SDSU got a QB transfer 2 week old news).
https://herosports.com/fcs-football-sds ... okun-bzbz/
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by BDKJMU »

HERO’s (ie Sam Herder’s) pick for every conference champ.
https://herosports.com/fcs-football-pre ... ions-bzbz/
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by BDKJMU »

HERO’s (ie Sam Herder’s) favorites to win 2021. Again 2 weeks ago, but just seeing this now:
https://herosports.com/fcs-football-fav ... itle-bzbz/
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by BDKJMU »

This is different than a pre season poll. Herder has it
1. SHSU
2. SDSU
3. JMU
4.NDSU
5. Montana
6. SIU
7.Weber
8. Montana St
9. UD
10. Monmouth

I‘d have it:
1.SHSU
2. JMU (flip with SDSU because of Gronowski‘s ACL injury)
3.SDSU
4.NDSU
5. Weber
6. SIU
7. UD
8. Montana
9.Montana St
10.Villanova: kind of my sleeper (in terms of a team that won’t be ranked top 10, maybe not top 15). They have the horses if they can avoid the injuries they got hit by 2017-2019. They recruit nationally, but their depth is lacking because they don’t get the walkons that the publics do.

A 2nd sleeper as far as NC contender (who will be preseason either bottom of of the top 25 or unranked), and preseason #6th? in the MVFC coukd be UNI...

-I have no idea about the Montana schools. Outside of a Spring game, not having played in closer to 2 years think they’ll be a huge ? mark.
-Not sure if UND, Monmouth, or VMI have the horses.
-EWU would be a possibility but they never seem to have a defense.
-JSU seems to always have the Jimmys and Joes, but lacks in the coaching & discipline..
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by UNI88 »

BDKJMU wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 2:01 pm This is different than a pre season poll. Herder has it
1. SHSU
2. SDSU
3. JMU
4.NDSU
5. Montana
6. SIU
7.Weber
8. Montana St
9. UD
10. Monmouth

I‘d have it:
1.SHSU
2. JMU (flip with SDSU because of Gronowski‘s ACL injury)
3.SDSU
4.NDSU
5. Weber
6. SIU
7. UD
8. Montana
9.Montana St
10.Villanova: kind of my sleeper (in terms of a team that won’t be ranked top 10, maybe not top 15). They have the horses if they can avoid the injuries they got hit by 2017-2019. They recruit nationally, but their depth is lacking because they don’t get the walkons that the publics do.

A 2nd sleeper as far as NC contender (who will be preseason either bottom of of the top 25 or unranked), and preseason #6th? in the MVFC coukd be UNI...

-I have no idea about the Montana schools. Outside of a Spring game, not having played in closer to 2 years think they’ll be a huge ? mark.
-Not sure if UND, Monmouth, or VMI have the horses.
-EWU would be a possibility but they never seem to have a defense.
-JSU seems to always have the Jimmys and Joes, but lacks in the coaching & discipline..
UNI is going to suck. I'm not sure we beat St. Thomas.






Did I do that right Gil?
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by BDKJMU »

UNI88 wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 3:23 pm
BDKJMU wrote: Tue Jun 08, 2021 2:01 pm This is different than a pre season poll. Herder has it
1. SHSU
2. SDSU
3. JMU
4.NDSU
5. Montana
6. SIU
7.Weber
8. Montana St
9. UD
10. Monmouth

I‘d have it:
1.SHSU
2. JMU (flip with SDSU because of Gronowski‘s ACL injury)
3.SDSU
4.NDSU
5. Weber
6. SIU
7. UD
8. Montana
9.Montana St
10.Villanova: kind of my sleeper (in terms of a team that won’t be ranked top 10, maybe not top 15). They have the horses if they can avoid the injuries they got hit by 2017-2019. They recruit nationally, but their depth is lacking because they don’t get the walkons that the publics do.

A 2nd sleeper as far as NC contender (who will be preseason either bottom of of the top 25 or unranked), and preseason #6th? in the MVFC coukd be UNI...

-I have no idea about the Montana schools. Outside of a Spring game, not having played in closer to 2 years think they’ll be a huge ? mark.
-Not sure if UND, Monmouth, or VMI have the horses.
-EWU would be a possibility but they never seem to have a defense.
-JSU seems to always have the Jimmys and Joes, but lacks in the coaching & discipline..
UNI is going to suck. I'm not sure we beat St. Thomas.

Did I do that right Gil?
:-?
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Re: Fall 2021 Prognostication

Post by SuperHornet »

Right now, I think BDK's preseason poll (somewhat high to middle of Page 2 of this thread) is fairly reasonable. While I stand by my prediction of 11-0 for Sac State, by no means should we be pre-season-polled (to coin a weak verb) based on that. I think anywhere between 15 and high ORV would be appropriate for us until we start winning games.

That said, for Sac, a lot will depend on how the quarterback situation pans out. It would have been nice to get Thomson back, but that obviously didn't happen. SD will be able to verify this, but I think our other offensive and defensive weapons will be in place, but having a decent quarterback to lead the attack will be key. I'm also wondering how our special teams will pan out.

Many of you are correct, I think, in that prognostication will be hard. Questions will abound about injuries for those who played the spring season, but those who escaped unscathed in terms of the injury bug may well have an advantage because of the full-competition reps they had. Those like Sac who chose to sit it out will likely be ahead in terms of not having a rash of injuries, but losing out on those full-competition reps could be a problem. Regardless, Fall 2021 promises to be a VERY interesting season.

FYI: I can't find any documentation, but it seems that the Thomson-as-a-Panther experiment has ended. He is not on their roster, but I can't find any transaction info regarding a release following his rookie camp tryout, for which his signing WAS well-documented (and still is).
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SuperHornet's Athletics Hall of Fame includes Jacksonville State kicker Ashley Martin, the first girl to score in a Division I football game. She kicked 3 PATs in a 2001 game for J-State.
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