Llamaguy wrote:
You make good points and are obviously a great stat man but this comparison has a bias! They didn't play the same schedule.
Of course the DB's for Montana have better stats because they played weaker competion within a league without great QBs. Look at their stats against Weber and other teams with a decent QB rating and see how great their stats are.The CAA is a QB driven league, even at the lower end of the conference. Just look at the numbers. I have respected all your picks so far but for Montana, this is the first time they will have played a team where they have a weaker strength of schedule. When the formula doesn't work this week, this will be why!
This has to be the most ignorant set of statements thus far. The Big Sky doesn't have good QBs? Are you serious? The Big Sky has Cameron Higgins (great & just a sophomore), Cole Bergquist (efficient and accurate), Matt Nichols (good this year, great last year), Jason Smith (best Sac QB since Ricky Ray), & Drew Hubel (Portland St.; really good half the time).
Here's Weber's passing stats against Montana last week: 19-40, 270 yards, 1 INT; a 99.2 efficiency rating.
In other words, Montana held Cameron Higgins & his dangerous receivers to a rather bad 99.2 efficiency rating despite not getting enough pressure to get any sacks. That's a pretty good day for the Griz secondary, wouldn't you say?
The CAA is a QB-driven conference? Since when? The CAA/A-10 has always been about power, running, & defense. There's Rodney Landers (great runner, OK passer), R.J. Toman, Liam Coen (like Nichols, better in the past than this year), Sean Schaefer (good, but on a lousy team) & maybe Eric Ward (good but not great). Chris Whitney has been good so far, but I think the jury's still out for now. Who else is good beyond that? Just 5 of the 12 CAA teams averaged over 200 ypg passing. It's hard to be a QB driven conference when the passing totals are that low. To contrast, 8 of the 9 Big Sky teams averaged over 200 ypg passing & two of them averaged over 300 (PSU & Weber). The leader in CAA passing yardage, Towson, would rank just 5th. in the Big Sky in the same stat (between ISU & UNC). Sac State—8th. in the Big Sky in pass yardage—would rank in the top half of the CAA in that stat.
Historically & now,
NO FCS conference is more QB-driven than the Big Sky. With great QBs of the past like John Friesz, Dave Dickenson, Doug Nussmeier, Jamie Martin, Brian Ah Yat, Drew Miller, Erik Meyer, Travis Lulay, Craig Ochs, Ricky Ray, and Jeff Lewis (as well as the current ones already mentioned), the teams in the Big Sky spent most of their time flinging the ball 30-50 times a game. Very few teams have to line up & stop the passing game more than Montana.
Oh, & here's another interesting stat from this year…
- Passing Efficiency: Big Sky - 130.6
Passing Efficiency: Colonial - 129.8
I agree that JMU has played a tougher schedule, but the difference isn't as big as CAA lovers seem to think. The CAA was the best conference this year, but it wasn't
by far the best. Montana plays in the Big Sky (third best by my estimation), not somewhere like the Big South or Patriot League, so the SOS gap isn't that large & it isn't overly meaningful.
I'm obviously not guaranteeing a Montana win (far from it), but I think that, if they keep playing like they have been the last several weeks, no FCS team will beat the Griz. The road could kill the momentum, but I have a feeling it won't this time around & UM will get it done.
. I think JMU is going to lose just based on the fact that their luck has to run out sometime, lets face it they have gotten here on sheer dumb luck:
