SB vs. Liberty

[sbufan33]

But this is the great and mighty 5-4 Stony Brook Seawolves with losses to 2-7 Lafayette and 4-4 Brown.

SBU gives up an average of 25 points a game. Let's not pretend their defense is special.

How is SBU beating anyone? We (Lafayette) beat them and we still have a 3 way battle for QB going into the next to last game of the season! We lost to Princeton for crying out loud.

IF we were to play Lafayette or Brown at this point in the season it will be a totally different outcome. Any good team gets better as the season progresses. It’s sad that it took us half way through the season to finally gel as a team, but we are there now. Our QB isn't throwing 2 Ints a game anymore, although we still have our penalty problem its not near to what it was in the AIC, Brown, and Lafayette games. We all know how much of a negative impact penalties can have on a team, and we've been that team to kill ourselves with penalties. Even in conference play I think so far we have a total of 6TDs call back because of penalties. For us to beat LU we have to limit these miscues

[Aho Old Guy]

...

Ah Old Guy loves the NCAA SOS figures which only consider your opponents results, not the strength of the teams that went into those results.

So to say they are far from accurate is an understatement at best.

And you are somehow claiming that an algorithm that evaluates your opponent's opponents somehow represents a greater form of accuracy?

When a team has a common opponent with their opponent, there is limited transitive value. Otherwise, random subjective variables meant to balance input simply creates a further deviation from the mean, especially as a football season progresses.

Sagarin is a perfect example of the fallacy of computerized football rankings. The success of Sagarin starts early in the season (when data is compiled from the previous year!), and as teams schedule their *cupcakes*. By the second half of a football season the accuracy of the *predictor* falls as much as 25% compared to the early successes of the predictor. The college football ELO is actually worse than the predictor as the season progresses.

It becomes even more farcical when evaluating the against spread.

[danefan]

...

Ah Old Guy loves the NCAA SOS figures which only consider your opponents results, not the strength of the teams that went into those results.

So to say they are far from accurate is an understatement at best.

And you are somehow claiming that an algorithm that evaluates your opponent's opponents somehow represents a greater form of accuracy?

When a team has a common opponent with their opponent, there is limited transitive value. Otherwise, random subjective variables meant to balance input simply creates a further deviation from the mean, especially as a football season progresses.

Sagarin is a perfect example of the fallacy of computerized football rankings. The success of Sagarin starts early in the season (when data is compiled from the previous year!), and as teams schedule their *cupcakes*. By the second half of a football season the accuracy of the *predictor* falls as much as 25% compared to the early successes of the predictor. The college football ELO is actually worse than the predictor as the season progresses.

It becomes even more farcical when evaluating the against spread.

I'm not arguing that either is necessarily accurate......but looking solely at the wins and loses as the NCAA does without any consideration for the strength, or more importantly, weakness, of those wins and loses is the furthest from an accurate SOS rating as you can find.

By that standard, a 10-0 DIII team would have a better SOS than a 9-1 FBS team whose opponents have the same W-L records. You do the math on that one.

[Flamefan121]

I don't know where you got your SOS information from. (not trying to be a smart one I really want to know) sagarin doesn't have us nearly that low. But yes obviously low I won't be dumb and argue that
But we can't help what conference we play in. Ooc we played 2 terrible teams, 2 top 25 caliber teams and an fbs team. Theres nothing embarassing about that. And I was just stating a fact. We are 5th in the nation in scoring offense (fact) Playing against another average defense. (fact) that would lead you to believe we should score points.

The fact you are putting up great numbers against shitty teams isn't that impressive.

It's the same reason people don't have Boise State as a a #1 team right now. Yeah, their numbers a pretty......but thy
are beating up on pretty shitty teams.

Okay I'm not trying say liberty should have impressed anyone. You are further helping prove my point to be honest. When Boise plays another WAC school you expect them to put up big numbers. Similar to when Lu plays big south schools you expect them to put up big numbers. This is not me saying liberty would drop 42 on app or w&m I am stating that we will continue to put up good numbers against our league.

[clenz]

The fact you are putting up great numbers against shitty teams isn't that impressive.

It's the same reason people don't have Boise State as a a #1 team right now. Yeah, their numbers a pretty......but thy
are beating up on pretty shitty teams.

Okay I'm not trying say liberty should have impressed anyone. You are further helping prove my point to be honest. When Boise plays another WAC school you expect them to put up big numbers. Similar to when Lu plays big south schools you expect them to put up big numbers. This is not me saying liberty would drop 42 on app or w&m I am stating that we will continue to put up good numbers against our league.

I'd expect anyone from the MVFC, CAA, Big Sky, SoCon, etc... to put up huge numbers on those schools...with their second teams.

[Flamefan121]

Okay I'm not trying say liberty should have impressed anyone. You are further helping prove my point to be honest. When Boise plays another WAC school you expect them to put up big numbers. Similar to when Lu plays big south schools you expect them to put up big numbers. This is not me saying liberty would drop 42 on app or w&m I am stating that we will continue to put up good numbers against our league.

I'd expect anyone from the MVFC, CAA, Big Sky, SoCon, etc... to put up huge numbers on those schools...with their second teams.

Another intelligent statement from a homer..

[Thumper 76]

Okay I'm not trying say liberty should have impressed anyone. You are further helping prove my point to be honest. When Boise plays another WAC school you expect them to put up big numbers. Similar to when Lu plays big south schools you expect them to put up big numbers. This is not me saying liberty would drop 42 on app or w&m I am stating that we will continue to put up good numbers against our league.

I'd expect anyone from the MVFC, CAA, Big Sky, SoCon, etc... to put up huge numbers on those schools...with their second teams.

This.

[Redwyn]

I'd expect anyone from the MVFC, CAA, Big Sky, SoCon, etc... to put up huge numbers on those schools...with their second teams.

This.

@clenz Clearly your quote makes total sense, since SBU was a tipped INT away from defeating U Mass (we led in the 4th quarter), and U Mass gave up 200+ rushing yards on fewer than 30 attempts (that, for you math buffs our there, is 6+ yards a carry). Compare that to ~185 yards on 49 attempts for U Mass (<4 yards a carry). Clear domination by U Mass really.... Now grow up and run along back to a conference you know anything about before I start commenting on Northern Iowa's loss to Southern Illinois (now many D1 wins to they have? 2?). You don't see me passing naive comments on MVFC topics, I expect at least some cursory research before you post on BigSo teams. @Thumper 76 - raise your hand if you team actually has a chance of going to the playoffs this year?

Are the better teams in the top 4 conferences better than the top end of the Big South? Sure. No indication has been given to the contrary. However, would they be routs? Not likely, and most trends indicate the gap is closing quickly. I should remind you that Stony Brook has only been full scholly for 2 years, and I believe this year is the first one to have all Chuck Priore recruited players. Patience. A 20+ million dollar athletic budget like those at SBU and Liberty will bring in good talent. Just have to wait a bit to get yours.

As for SBU @ Liberty - we got the same song and dance from Liberty fans all of last season, then heard about the "fluke" loss. Are we in VA for this one? Sure. Did they beat a sub 63 scholarship team 2 years ago? Yes. Does this mean the same route is in store? Based on a comparison of how we've done against the same schools in our conference...not likely. Speaking about how you're not afraid of this game as just as naive as our fans saying it's a given we'll win. It's a very nice matchup, and I'm hoping for a close and exciting game with no injuries - since let's face it, no matter the team, injuries suck.

In Summary - quit being arrogant schmucks (on both sides, we have nothing to boast about after the Lafayette loss), and we'll see you on the gridiron. Go Brook.

[clenz]

Look at the balls on this one coming back at us. The Big South sucks, face it.

Playing a game against UMASS doesn't mean the conference is top dog and can play in that conference week in and week out.


Yep, UNI lost to SIU...UNI also has beaten a ranked NDSU and is putting up HUGE numbers on offense week after week against better teams

[Redwyn]

Look at the balls on this one coming back at us. The Big South sucks, face it.

Playing a game against UMASS doesn't mean the conference is top dog and can play in that conference week in and week out.


Yep, UNI lost to SIU...UNI also has beaten a ranked NDSU and is putting up HUGE numbers on offense week after week against better teams

Hmmm - Gotta remember UNI fans can't read. Pretty sure I actually wrote exactly what you just said. Must be all those budget cuts...

The Big South is a younger conference whose members have FAR less D1 time than those of the MVFC. I don't think anyone but that estranged SBU fan and a few Liberty fans try to cover this. The fact that you're picking on a conference because their schools are younger is kind of befuddling, but I guess you need something to do with your time. Fact is - while we're not at the competitive level of the CAA, MVFC, or Big Sky yet, it's notable that we're putting the effort in. Presbyterian - our bottom tier - is adding about 8 schollys a year until they go full in about 3 years. Not bad for a team that 10 years ago was D2. One look at the MEAC, SWAC, or NEC shows that a lot of older schools don't put in that level of effort to fundraise and pull that off. Most of the other programs - Liberty, Stony Brook, Coastal, G-Webb - for better or worse are throwing piles of money into their athletics facilities and programs. This year alone SBU's building a new outdoor track / football practice field, conditioning facility, and phase 1 of our baseball field. The two FBS wins this year are testament that they're not exactly doormats. Will UNI win right now against any of us? Sure. But I think you guys had a little bit of a headstart on us in football, if we were being fair about it. In 10 years...I'd wager it would be a bit more questionable.

As for balls...if you define posting on a message board as showing balls - man you must be a pretty big pu$$y.

As for UNI - unlike you, I'll never address teams I know nothing about. If they're doing fine, kudos. I really don't care, and frankly I'm not sure why you posted on this topic at all given how hostile you are towards both parties.

[clenz]

For the first time in my life I'm going to say this.


Go Liberty

[Redwyn]

For the first time in my life I'm going to say this.


Go Liberty

Sadly, because of you I'll actually be rooting against UNI. Pity too, I really liked your team a lot, rooted for em in both football and basketball.

[clenz]

Oh fuck you...I'm gonna cheer against you because you're a meany!

I'm going for Liberty because they are the only team in the conference that can win a fucking playoff game. I'd hate to see a Big South team get in and get beat by 40, but cry for repsect the next couple years.

[Redwyn]

Oh **** you...I'm gonna cheer against you because you're a meany!

I'm going for Liberty because they are the only team in the conference that can win a **** playoff game. I'd hate to see a Big South team get in and get beat by 40, but cry for repsect the next couple years.

Not exactly..I'm going to cheer against you because rather than engage in a debate that could educate you about the schools in our conference - and some have wonderful athletic traditions - you rely on deriding comments to bash the whole group. It's a pity, since I have little doubt that you have a lot of football knowledge you could have contributed productively. And yes, I actually agree that based on OOC performance over the past few years Liberty would likely be a better matchup this year. I'm not fond of Stony Brook's inconsistencies right now. If you look, I didn't really tout my program at all in any prior post - I merely said we're not doormats as you insinuated.

Also, I thought you said any school in most of the conferences could beat any of us? Did I misread? If you want to turn this into a pissing contest resort to PM. I doubt many others want to read much of this. Personally, I'd be more keen on hearing about UNI than read sweeping statements with no backing about why my conference sucks.

[clenz]

Teams in the Big South that would finish over .500 in conference play in the CAA, SoCon, MVFC, or Big Sky: Liberty

MVFC teams that would win the Big South: UNI, SDSU, NDSU, ISUr, WIU, SIU
CAA teams that would win the Big South: All but Towson and probably Rhode Island
Big Sky teams that would win the Big South: Montana, WSU, EWU, Sac State, Montana State, NAU
SoCon teams that would win the Big South: ASU, UT-C, GSU, Wofford, Elon

I would love to get in a serious discussion about the Big South and the playoffs or competeing with other conferences but there is nothing to really discuss. Liberty is the only team with a *real shot* to do anything, and they aren't really impressing a lot of people because of the fact that play in the Big South and they have lost to the only FCS teams they have played that worth a dang (and that is debateable with JMU this year). They beat Ball State, and had they lost that, but played the rest of the season the same (2 losses instead of one) they would be a 20th ranked team at the very best. Heck, looking at the computers (a whole nother argument itself) Liberty rarely cracks the top 35 or 40.

Would the Big South teams play some of those games close? You bet, you just used UMASS as a perfect example. However, UMASS played Michigan close. Does that mean UMASS would be able to play with the B10? No, it doesn't. There are thousands of reasons a game that shouldn't be close is.


Is the competition within Big South teams good? You bet. Do I watch Big South games when they are on channelsurfing, ESPN3, or anything like that? You bet I do. I would be I watch just as much FCS football as anyone on this board, and more than probably 95%. However, that also gives me a "global view" if you will about where conferences stand against each other. The best thing for the Big South is for Liberty to dominate for the next year or two, and have another team get to the point of being an 8-3 team, ish. I believe Liberty is the only team over .500, at least I think so, in the Big South....it's been awhile since I looked though.

[danefan]

Clenzy having a bad day? My god man - take a freaking chill pill..............

How in the world did you ever get involved in a thread between Liberty and SBU posters?

[clenz]

Clenzy having a bad day? My god man - take a freaking chill pill..............

How in the world did you ever get involved in a thread between Liberty and SBU posters?

It showed up in the "View New Posts" area and I clicked it and replies.





But yeah....bad day

[jcmanson]

bump

[ToTheLeft]

Home field, with a crowd on hand that WANTS to be there. Atmosphere will be intense, but not as loud as normal.

LU plays hard and spreads the offense out with Chris Summers on the bench. Tyler Brennan throws for 180 yards and 2 TD's, both to Mike Brown, and Mike rushes for 100 yards, throws for 100 yards, and catches for 70 yards. The defense plays a 4 man front and clogs the running lanes and short passing lanes, and SBU has trouble getting an offense going. SBU is forced to look further down the field on offense, which plays right into LU's hands defensively.

Liberty 58, SBU 13.

[sbufan33]

Home field, with a crowd on hand that WANTS to be there. Atmosphere will be intense, but not as loud as normal.

LU plays hard and spreads the offense out with Chris Summers on the bench. Tyler Brennan throws for 180 yards and 2 TD's, both to Mike Brown, and Mike rushes for 100 yards, throws for 100 yards, and catches for 70 yards. The defense plays a 4 man front and clogs the running lanes and short passing lanes, and SBU has trouble getting an offense going. SBU is forced to look further down the field on offense, which plays right into LU's hands defensively.

Liberty 58, SBU 13.

Why would Chris summers be on the bench. Liberty has a better chance of beating us with Brown @ QB rather than receiver. Also the crowd won't be loud as normal, because SB will we running all over LU, and keeping Mike Brown off the field, so they won't have much to cheer about.

[sbufan33]

SB 28 - LU - 17

[ToTheLeft]

Home field, with a crowd on hand that WANTS to be there. Atmosphere will be intense, but not as loud as normal.

LU plays hard and spreads the offense out with Chris Summers on the bench. Tyler Brennan throws for 180 yards and 2 TD's, both to Mike Brown, and Mike rushes for 100 yards, throws for 100 yards, and catches for 70 yards. The defense plays a 4 man front and clogs the running lanes and short passing lanes, and SBU has trouble getting an offense going. SBU is forced to look further down the field on offense, which plays right into LU's hands defensively.

Liberty 58, SBU 13.

Why would Chris summers be on the bench. Liberty has a better chance of beating us with Brown @ QB rather than receiver. Also the crowd won't be loud as normal, because SB will we running all over LU, and keeping Mike Brown off the field, so they won't have much to cheer about.

Because Roy Williams, I mean Josh Norman gave Chris a high ankle sprain.

[Redwyn]

Home field, with a crowd on hand that WANTS to be there. Atmosphere will be intense, but not as loud as normal.

LU plays hard and spreads the offense out with Chris Summers on the bench. Tyler Brennan throws for 180 yards and 2 TD's, both to Mike Brown, and Mike rushes for 100 yards, throws for 100 yards, and catches for 70 yards. The defense plays a 4 man front and clogs the running lanes and short passing lanes, and SBU has trouble getting an offense going. SBU is forced to look further down the field on offense, which plays right into LU's hands defensively.

Liberty 58, SBU 13.

While I do agree with sbufan that Liberty has been poor against the run, I do admit Liberty has a chance of winning.

What I doubt, however, is that the margin will be great enough for them to get the autobid. They didn't beat us by that much when we were under-max scholly and a far weaker program 2 years ago.

I see it a close game with either side pulling out the win. The autobid will not be Liberty's on the tiebreaker. They have to win the game and CSU has to lose.

[SumItUp]

The autobid will not be Liberty's on the tiebreaker. They have to win the game and CSU has to lose.

I think you meant CCU. If Charleston Southern defeats Coastal Carolina and Liberty wins the matchup against Stony Brook, then Liberty receives the AQ. Stony Brook controls their destiny.

[Thumper 76]

This.

@clenz Clearly your quote makes total sense, since SBU was a tipped INT away from defeating U Mass (we led in the 4th quarter), and U Mass gave up 200+ rushing yards on fewer than 30 attempts (that, for you math buffs our there, is 6+ yards a carry). Compare that to ~185 yards on 49 attempts for U Mass (<4 yards a carry). Clear domination by U Mass really.... Now grow up and run along back to a conference you know anything about before I start commenting on Northern Iowa's loss to Southern Illinois (now many D1 wins to they have? 2?). You don't see me passing naive comments on MVFC topics, I expect at least some cursory research before you post on BigSo teams. @Thumper 76 - raise your hand if you team actually has a chance of going to the playoffs this year?

Are the better teams in the top 4 conferences better than the top end of the Big South? Sure. No indication has been given to the contrary. However, would they be routs? Not likely, and most trends indicate the gap is closing quickly. I should remind you that Stony Brook has only been full scholly for 2 years, and I believe this year is the first one to have all Chuck Priore recruited players. Patience. A 20+ million dollar athletic budget like those at SBU and Liberty will bring in good talent. Just have to wait a bit to get yours.

As for SBU @ Liberty - we got the same song and dance from Liberty fans all of last season, then heard about the "fluke" loss. Are we in VA for this one? Sure. Did they beat a sub 63 scholarship team 2 years ago? Yes. Does this mean the same route is in store? Based on a comparison of how we've done against the same schools in our conference...not likely. Speaking about how you're not afraid of this game as just as naive as our fans saying it's a given we'll win. It's a very nice matchup, and I'm hoping for a close and exciting game with no injuries - since let's face it, no matter the team, injuries suck.

In Summary - quit being arrogant schmucks (on both sides, we have nothing to boast about after the Lafayette loss), and we'll see you on the gridiron. Go Brook.

@Redwyn, I would put money on SDSU bending SB over their knee this year, and we are having a down year.