Is this the year...?

[mcveyrl]

So I was looking at the modified GPI that the committee uses and trying to put a bracket together. I'm assuming the following results: UD over 'Nova, W&M over Richmond, Mont. St. over Montana, SBU over Liberty, Wofford over Chattanooga, GSU over Furman, UMass over URI. As far as I know, this has the favorites winning.

EDIT: Also assumes UNI over WIU.

I've included these teams:

Autobid: Delaware (CAA), ASU (SoCon), Jax St. (OVC), B-C (MEAC), RMU (NEC), Lehigh (Patriot), MSU (Big Sky), UNI (MVFC), and SFA (Southland).

Given those results, I think these teams are locks for at-large bids: W&M, EWU, Wofford, UNH, UMass, NDSU, SEMO, and Georgia Southern. That leaves two at-large spots. If you look at the Top 25 of the GPI and eliminate the above teams, here's what you have left:

11. Villanova
12. Sac State
15. Chattanooga
16. Montana
18. Richmond
19. JMU
20. Weber St
21. Western Illinois
22. McNeese St
25. Cal Poly


As far as I can tell, these teams will all (probably) be at 6 D-1 wins at the end of the year (this, again, assumes the above results).

So the question is, does/can the committee ignore ALL these teams for TWO spots? I could see them going outside the Top 25 and getting 1 team, but not 2.

By the way, as I'm sure most are aware, once you go outside the Top 25 there's not a ton of 7 win teams there, either...except some pesky Dolphins...

[CAA Flagship]

By the way, as I'm sure most are aware, once you go outside the Top 25 there's not a ton of 7 win teams there, either...except some pesky Dolphins...

Ahem. Where's the Love?

[89Hen]

I've included these teams:

Autobid: Delaware (CAA), ASU (SoCon), Jax St. (OVC), B-C (MEAC), RMU (NEC), Lehigh (Patriot), MSU (Big Sky), UNI (MVFC), and SFA (Southland).

You missed the Big South. Only one spot left.

[mcveyrl]

I've included these teams:

Autobid: Delaware (CAA), ASU (SoCon), Jax St. (OVC), B-C (MEAC), RMU (NEC), Lehigh (Patriot), MSU (Big Sky), UNI (MVFC), and SFA (Southland).

You missed the Big South. Only one spot left.

Ooops.

But I still only had 8 at-larges.

[93henfan]

Lol @ the dukies trying to squeeze a playoff bid out of a 6-5 season. You ought to be ashamed of yourself McV.

[mcveyrl]

By the way, as I'm sure most are aware, once you go outside the Top 25 there's not a ton of 7 win teams there, either...except some pesky Dolphins...

Ahem. Where's the Love?

Okay, okay, and ODU. But if the committee goes and gets Jacksonville (which we know they'll take over you guys) and then goes and gets ODU, I will be on the MEAC boards at 10:01 Sunday morning to witness the backlash.

[mcveyrl]

Lol @ the dukies trying to squeeze a playoff bid out of a 6-5 season. You ought to be ashamed of yourself McV.

No, the fact that we're 0-2 against the other CAA teams in that barrel kills us.

I was honestly just doing a bracket projection and eliminating teams I already had in and this jumped out at me. If that scenario plays out, I think it would be hard to ignore Jacksonville (which, by the way, is just a couple of hours from Statesboro, GA - hello bus trip).

I think it might come down to Montana (tradition and need another western team) or 'Nova (defending champion, just got their best player back).

By the way, as I have it now (I included Jacksonville and SCSU to keep with the seven win theme), there's only one plane trip in the first round and I think the committee would be absolutely tickled to get that outcome.

[WrenFGun]

I think in the instance you list above, you'd be looking at South Carolina State (even if the computer numbers don't support their entry, they have, well, a lot of wins, and have lost only to the MEAC Champion and an FBS) and Montana (because they have 7 wins, even if they're not all DI. Plus, they're Montana. To be quite honest, though, I'd support Liberty if they were sticking to the 7 DI win minimum as they have the win over Ball State.

[mcveyrl]

I think in the instance you list above, you'd be looking at South Carolina State (even if the computer numbers don't support their entry, they have, well, a lot of wins, and have lost only to the MEAC Champion and an FBS) and Montana (because they have 7 wins, even if they're not all DI. Plus, they're Montana. To be quite honest, though, I'd support Liberty if they were sticking to the 7 DI win minimum as they have the win over Ball State.

You don't think they'd grab Jacksonville with the high(er) GPI?

[DetroitFlyer]

Dayton is 10-1, 9-1 FCS, 8-0 PFL and is the Co-Champion of the PFL with the Fins. Dayton also has a win over NEC champion and AQ, Robert Morris. Last I checked, the fins did not have a win over any team that will be in the playoffs.... If a PFL team is selected, it should be Dayton over the Fins.

[mcveyrl]

Dayton is 10-1, 9-1 FCS, 8-0 PFL and is the Co-Champion of the PFL with the Fins. Dayton also has a win over NEC champion and AQ, Robert Morris. Last I checked, the fins did not have a win over any team that will be in the playoffs.... If a PFL team is selected, it should be Dayton over the Fins.

I understand your point and argument, but Dayton is not in the top 50 of the GPI that the NCAA uses as a factor. If you were to compare this to basketball, they would be outside approximately the top 150 in RPI and still get a bid to the dance. I just don't think that's going to happen.

[ArmyOfDarkness]

First.. EWU will be the most likely candidate for the BSC auto. MSU will get in with or without a loss to Montana.

If Montana wins - their in with EWU and MSU
If Montana does the opposite of winning - It is a toss up, like you said.

[mcveyrl]

First.. EWU will be the most likely candidate for the BSC auto. MSU will get in with or without a loss to Montana.

If Montana wins - their in with EWU and MSU
If Montana does the opposite of winning - It is a toss up, like you said.

Yea, a win by any of the teams listed above (except maybe Liberty) clears this up a lot. A win by several of the teams projected to lose muddles this up a lot -- for the last spot, Montana's in with a win.

Also, if I project a Montana State win, they get the auto because of their win over EWU.

[ArmyOfDarkness]

First.. EWU will be the most likely candidate for the BSC auto. MSU will get in with or without a loss to Montana.

If Montana wins - their in with EWU and MSU
If Montana does the opposite of winning - It is a toss up, like you said.

Yea, a win by any of the teams listed above (except maybe Liberty) clears this up a lot. A win by several of the teams projected to lose muddles this up a lot -- for the last spot, Montana's in with a win.

Also, if I project a Montana State win, they get the auto because of their win over EWU.

I see your point, I wasn't thinkn' MSU will share the title with EWU but get the auto if they wins. If MSU loses, EWU claims the BSC (if they win). Better ?

[mcveyrl]

Yea, a win by any of the teams listed above (except maybe Liberty) clears this up a lot. A win by several of the teams projected to lose muddles this up a lot -- for the last spot, Montana's in with a win.

Also, if I project a Montana State win, they get the auto because of their win over EWU.

I see your point, I wasn't thinkn' MSU will share the title with EWU but get the auto if they wins. If MSU loses, EWU claims the BSC (if they win). Better ?

Yep, and in that scenario, the BSC gets three teams because Montana goes.

[ChoppinBroccoli]

Several of these teams could drop out of the top 25 with losses. Doubtful given the level of competition they are playing. But we can't assume this week's top 25 will look like next week's.

I think if all of these teams are at 6 wins, SC State and Jacksonville will get the bids. IMO, strength of schedule loses its luster if you can't win more than 6 games against it.

[mcveyrl]

Several of these teams could drop out of the top 25 with losses. Doubtful given the level of competition they are playing. But we can't assume this week's top 25 will look like next week's.

I think if all of these teams are at 6 wins, SC State and Jacksonville will get the bids. IMO, strength of schedule loses its luster if you can't win more than 6 games against it.

Yea, that's why I pointed out that even the teams poised to jump in the Top 25 don't have seven wins either. And I think you're right about Jacksonville and SCSU. If ever there was a year to have 16 teams in the playoffs...

[89Hen]

If ever there was a year to have 16 teams in the playoffs...

They just wouldn't listen to 89Hen.

[Pwns]

The committee is not going to run out of 7 DI win teams. There is always FAMU, Duquesne, SC State, Jacksonville, Dayton, and ODU to fall back on if too many of the SoCon/CAA/BSC teams lose.

[mcveyrl]

The committee is not going to run out of 7 DI win teams. There is always FAMU, Duquesne, SC State, Jacksonville, Dayton, and ODU to fall back on if too many of the SoCon/CAA/BSC teams lose.

So the question then becomes...what's the purpose of the GPI?

[89Hen]

There is always FAMU, Duquesne, SC State, Jacksonville, Dayton, and ODU to fall back on if too many of the SoCon/CAA/BSC teams lose.

First round fodder is first round fodder.

[danefan]

The committee is not going to run out of 7 DI win teams. There is always FAMU, Duquesne, SC State, Jacksonville, Dayton, and ODU to fall back on if too many of the SoCon/CAA/BSC teams lose.

So the question then becomes...what's the purpose of the GPI?

Well technically the committee only uses the modified GPI for the Bridge AQ which won't come into play this year. So it really doesn't have to rely on the GPI at all for anything else.

[danefan]

BTW if anyone cares this is the Modified GPI results according to my calculation (not really a calculation as much as a data entry)

NCAA GPI Top 50 (Wolfe, Massey, Lazarus, Ashburn, Selfe)

1. Delaware
2. App State
3. Eastern Washington.
4. W&M
5. SF Austin
6. Jacksonville St
7. Montana St
8. New Hampshire
9. Northern Iowa
10. Wofford
11. Villanova
12. Sac State
13. UMass
14. North Dakota St.
15. Chattanooga
16. Montana
17. SEMO
18. Richmond
19. JMU
20. Weber St
21. Western Illinois
22. McNeese St
23. Georgia Southern
24. Penn
25. Cal Poly


26. Northern Arizona
27. Elon
28. Indiana St
29. Jacksonville
30. Bethune Cookman
31. Grambling
32. South Dakota St.
33. Southern Utah
34. Robert Morris
35. Illinois St.
36. Central Ark.
37. Lehigh
38. Sam Houston St
39. Furman
40. EKU
41. Texas Southern
42. UC Davis
43. Missour St
44. Murry St
45. South Carolina State
46. Maine
47. Southern Illinois
48. Central Conn.
49. Old Dominion
50. Liberty

[DetroitFlyer]

No way in you know where that JU can be 29 and UD is not even in the top 50. UD behind ODU, CCSU, Robert Morris, not a chance. Just proves to me that this measure is 100% completely useless....

[danefan]

No way in you know where that JU can be 29 and UD is not even in the top 50. UD behind ODU, CCSU, Robert Morris, not a chance. Just proves to me that this measure is 100% completely useless....

I thought you'd like that.

Dayton is at 53.

The Duquesne loss kills them. Dukes at 70.