Villanova @ SFA

[Mvemjsunpx]

I didn't see a thread, so here goes…

Here's my assessment of the matchups & my pick for the game:

• • • Quarterbacks -- Stephen F. Austin
      
      Running Backs - Villanova
      
      Receivers/TEs - Stephen F. Austin
      
      Offensive Line - (push)
      
      
      Defensive Line - Stephen F. Austin
      
      Linebackers --- Stephen F. Austin
      
      Secondary ---- Villanova
      
      
      Kicking ------ Stephen F. Austin
      
      Punting ------ Villanova
      
      Return Teams - Stephen F. Austin
      
      Kickoffs ------ (push)
      
      
      
      
      
      
      • • Villanova 14-30 Stephen F. Austin

[93henfan]

Villanova by 10 to 14 points.

[CatMom]

If you give the edge to Nova, in the secondary, I would lean more to Nova winning. That's where you stop SFA. The YAC is how you contain them. They have no running game and most of the passes are under 20 yds. Not saying they don't run...at all, but it isn't a large part of their game plan. (ranked 110th in FCS).
Nova will have to get their running game (25th) going, though, through the SFA line to make noise and come away with the W. And they best have a good PK, cause SFA gets stingy in the red zone.

I'm not predicting but I'm going to say it will be close.

[WrenFGun]

I didn't see a thread, so here goes…

Here's my assessment of the matchups & my pick for the game:

• • • Quarterbacks -- Stephen F. Austin
      
      Running Backs - Villanova
      
      Receivers/TEs - Stephen F. Austin
      
      Offensive Line - (push)
      
      
      Defensive Line - Stephen F. Austin
      
      Linebackers --- Stephen F. Austin
      
      Secondary ---- Villanova
      
      
      Kicking ------ Stephen F. Austin
      
      Punting ------ Villanova
      
      Return Teams - Stephen F. Austin
      
      Kickoffs ------ (push)
      
      
      
      
      
      
      • • Villanova 14-30 Stephen F. Austin

I think you're pretty decidedly off. I'd take Whitney over Moses, handsdown, but I don't think much of the Nova RB's unless you consider Sczcur as a RB (he isn't in the natural sense of the word). That said, with White and Sczcur as passing options, they win that handsdown. They also have two of the best tackles in FCS on the OL, and two all-conference LB's.

I think SFA is going to win this game, though. I haven't been impressed by 'Nova all season and don't see anyway they're going to hold SFA to a low scoring game, even with the SLC's terrible playoff performances (including one that looks the McNeese/UNH game last year).

[sfajack05]

Nova's kicker must be really bad if you gave SFA the advantage in kicking. Our kicker is horrible. I hope it doesn't come down to a field goal for SFA to win because if it does then there is about a 75% chance SFA won't be moving on. Should be a good game though.

[CatMom]

Nova's kicker must be really bad if you gave SFA the advantage in kicking. Our kicker is horrible. I hope it doesn't come down to a field goal for SFA to win because if it does then there is about a 75% chance SFA won't be moving on. Should be a good game though.

That's not exactly what I said. I said Nova needs to have a good PK because SFA's D is stingy in the RZ. Meaning.......TD's are hard to come by.

[FWJack]

I think sfajack was refering to the OP who gave the kicking advantage to SFA. Our FG kicker is not very good.

[sfajack05]

yeah i was referring to the op not to you catmom. now if we had our kicker from last year i would say we would have the advantage but he got homesick and to run home to mom and dad.

[Jacks16]

Jacks 05 I will let you slide since your prob dont know the story. Evan Engwall's mother had a brain tumor. It was a real sad deal he was very upset about leaving. Fyi

[SeattleGriz]

This is the game I am most interested in watching. I have said this in other threads and to summarize my thoughts, here it goes:

A passing team (SFA) plays a much more physical running team (Nova) from a running conference.

Matchup to two different styles.

I am mostly interested to see if Nova's physicality is the factor to overcome this game. With that being said, I have been leaning towards SFA, but not by much. That squeaker win over UNI isn't making me real confident in the Southland this year, but that is what the playoffs are all about. Getting to see two different conferences play.

[Ivytalk]

Villanova by 10 to 14 points.

About the same as the number of VU fans (including parents) who will make the trip!

[FWJack]

This game has me confused. I keep hearing on the other website and on the SFA message board from the Nova fans that the Nova pass defense is not good at all. This is me grinning from ear to ear. Moses and the SFA offense should shred them if thats true. Also, while Nova is a great running team, SFA has been pretty decent at handling running teams especially when the opponent is somewhat one dimensional. That said, our defense has been known to give up long runs which scares me (see our game vs. UNI and SHSU). It all depends on which SFA defense shows up, cause I'm sure the Nova running game will show up.
Another plus for SFA, is our schools location, not the easiest to travel too from a long distance away.
Some concerns: If SFA's defense doesn't contain Nova's run game, Nova will control the clock, which will keep our offense off the field.
I don't see either team winning by a lot. Should be a tough game.

[sfajack05]

Jacks16 sorry about that comment. That was the opposite from what i heard why he left. If i knew that then i wouldnt have said that. Im sorry to hear that.

[Mvemjsunpx]

Nova's secondary is solid, but their pass rush is weak. If they have to bring a lot of people to get to Moses, he'll eat them alive with the short passes they love.

Without Szczur, Nova just doesn't have enough weapons to go far in the playoffs. Their RBs aren't too impressive, though still more so than SFA's.

As for Nova's kicking, they are just 3/10 on field goals this season.

[AZGrizFan]

I think SFA is going to win this game, though. I haven't been impressed by 'Nova all season and don't see anyway they're going to hold SFA to a low scoring game, even with the SLC's terrible playoff performances (including one that looks the McNeese/UNH game last year).

Nobody thought SFA was going to be held to a low scoring game last year either against Montana. How'd that work out for them?

SFA gets rolled in this game. I'm gonna guess TOP is +10 minutes in 'Nova's favor, and they win a low scoring game by keeping SFA's offense off the field 20-10.

[SeattleGriz]

I think SFA is going to win this game, though. I haven't been impressed by 'Nova all season and don't see anyway they're going to hold SFA to a low scoring game, even with the SLC's terrible playoff performances (including one that looks the McNeese/UNH game last year).

Nobody thought SFA was going to be held to a low scoring game last year either against Montana. How'd that work out for them?

SFA gets rolled in this game. I'm gonna guess TOP is +10 minutes in 'Nova's favor, and they win a low scoring game by keeping SFA's offense off the field 20-10.

See, this is what has me guessing as well. While I don't think Nova is going to have their run stuffed, I would hope SFA defensive coordinator would be smart enough to bring an extra man into the box to stop the run, unlike Montana last year.

You could very well be right AZ, and I have thought that as well, just really interested to see how this game plays out.

[Mvemjsunpx]

See, this is what has me guessing as well. While I don't think Nova is going to have their run stuffed, I would hope SFA defensive coordinator would be smart enough to bring an extra man into the box to stop the run, unlike Montana last year.

That was something I didn't understand at all. The Griz still had all their DBs 10+ yards off the ball even when Nova was in the Wildcat.

Oh well… Paulson's gone so it doesn't matter any more.

[AZGrizFan]

See, this is what has me guessing as well. While I don't think Nova is going to have their run stuffed, I would hope SFA defensive coordinator would be smart enough to bring an extra man into the box to stop the run, unlike Montana last year.

That was something I didn't understand at all. The Griz still had all their DBs 10+ yards off the ball even when Nova was in the Wildcat.

Oh well… Paulson's gone so it doesn't matter any more.

Here's where your analysis is flawed, px: You're comparing stats compiled against Southland-level competition to those compiled against CAA-level competition. Much like SFA hadn't seen anything like what Montana brought to the house last year, I think they're in for a rude awakening tomorrow against 'Nova as well...and I don't think 'Nova is anywhere NEAR what they were last year...

[CatMom]

Hey, I offered up our gamplan against SFA, to the Nova "powers that be" They turned me down.
We may not be very good but we never lost to a SFA Moses led team. Has to be something in that they could use. But, too late now, we fired the coach that was at the helm for all 4 of those. God knows where he is now...golf course, tubing on the SM River, on a cruise, contemplating suicide.....................

[Mvemjsunpx]

Here's where your analysis is flawed, px: You're comparing stats compiled against Southland-level competition to those compiled against CAA-level competition. Much like SFA hadn't seen anything like what Montana brought to the house last year, I think they're in for a rude awakening tomorrow against 'Nova as well...and I don't think 'Nova is anywhere NEAR what they were last year...

Here's where your analysis is flawed: SFA is the #1 team in the Southland, Villanova is the #4 team in the CAA. I don't think the 4th. best CAA team is better than the best Southland team. Aside from a poor 10 minutes against TX State, SFA has been the best team in the nation IMO.

You base way too much on last year's game in Missoula; that wasn't really indicative of their team as a whole. Remember that they beat EWU at home the week before. This game is in humid Nacogdoches and I think that makes a big difference.

[ASUMountaineer]

I think SFA is going to win this game, though. I haven't been impressed by 'Nova all season and don't see anyway they're going to hold SFA to a low scoring game, even with the SLC's terrible playoff performances (including one that looks the McNeese/UNH game last year).

Nobody thought SFA was going to be held to a low scoring game last year either against Montana. How'd that work out for them?

SFA gets rolled in this game. I'm gonna guess TOP is +10 minutes in 'Nova's favor, and they win a low scoring game by keeping SFA's offense off the field 20-10.

I hope you're right. If we can make it past the Leathernecks, I'd much rather see Nova in Boone than SFA.

[LeadBolt]

Nobody thought SFA was going to be held to a low scoring game last year either against Montana. How'd that work out for them?

SFA gets rolled in this game. I'm gonna guess TOP is +10 minutes in 'Nova's favor, and they win a low scoring game by keeping SFA's offense off the field 20-10.

I hope you're right. If we can make it past the Leathernecks, I'd much rather see Nova in Boone than SFA.

Be careful what you wish for.

[ASUMountaineer]

I hope you're right. If we can make it past the Leathernecks, I'd much rather see Nova in Boone than SFA.

Be careful what you wish for.

Perhaps, but if you've watched our D play at all this year, you'd definitely see why I'd prefer a team that is more balanced than a team that prefers to air-it-out.

[LeadBolt]

Be careful what you wish for.

Perhaps, but if you've watched our D play at all this year, you'd definitely see why I'd prefer a team that is more balanced than a team that prefers to air-it-out.

Good Point, but Sczcur and Whitney are to be feared.

For W&M we would much rather face a team with a balanced offense as well. Not too keen on your TO offense brethren from SoCon that we have to face...

[kiss my axe]

I know SFA got housed in the playoffs last year by Montana, but the few excuses they actually do have for that game are ok ones I guess. SFA is not used to playing in below freezing temps. They had never played a game (in the last several years at least) in front of so many people, and they were just shellshocked plain and simple. They got hammered by a team that was lightyears better than them, and I called it as soon as the matchup came to be.

However, people seem to forget that SFA did win a home playoff game last year, though that was against a very different EWU team. The sad thing about that game was that it was over Thanksgiving day weekend, so it was mostly locals at the game, thankfully that's not the same deal this year.

To the poster above who said that SFA has been the #1 team in the nation except for 10 minutes against TX State, I really can't disagree more. They've dominated some teams yeah, but they've also looked average on several occasions, and I wouldn't put our defense/running game/special teams up against many teams, because they are average or below average. Our defensive line has done some good things, our secondary is servicable but still young.

Our running game so-so is because of the spread they run, but running out the clock has been an issue several times this year. The other team just get so many possessions. Between SFA airing it out, mediocre running backs, and the high frequencies of quick snaps and no huddle that we use sometimes, the other offense usually will have plenty of chances to find their rythm.

I think SFA should win this by a touchdown, but I don't expect a high scoring game, but I don't think anyone would be shocked to see them go down. I hope they don't, I'd love them to get a chance to play App State, though like the game against Montana, I don't think I would like the outcome of that game.