5 Games I'm Keeping An Eye On--9/1/2007

[BigApp]

GreatAppSt gives you the Countdown. Each message board has it's own traditions. BigApp's much less ballyhoo'd tradition is to showcase 5 games or so around the country each week where an upset might be in the making. Here's the rules:

--I typically do NOT pick Southern Conference teams, and almost never pick conference games. To date, I have never picked an Appalachian game.
--The purpose is to look at the big picture when it comes down to what matters in FCS football, the playoffs. The games I'm looking at are teams with their sights set on the field of 16, OR may have an affect on the playoffs.
--Typically, games between Top 25 teams I leave alone because, well everybody else is talking/watching/writing about these games. Look a further down the rankings, you'll see what I mean...Also, we're looking at games that everyone else thinks is a blowout...or may have a juicy storyline...
--Since there are so many, I have to choose one, so the rankings I use are from The Sports Network.
--Nothing I write is meant to taking personally or as smack, so please do not take it as such.
--Since I started doing this on the Mountaineer Message Board in 2002, I've selected 165 games. 56 of those became straight up upsets (34%-not too bad), but when factoring in near misses (games decided by 8 points or less) that's another 36, raising it to 56%. I'm proud of that.

Here we go for 2007:

1) #3 Massachusetts vs #40 Holy Cross--We're all aware of the Minutemen. Good size, big program, lots of tradition. But what do we know of Holy Cross? Here's some tidbits to chew on: HC was only 7-4 last season, but averaged 384 yards per game in total Offense, and are looking to serious players in the Patriot League. This is a good place to make a first impression. HC returns 7 starters from the O, and 6 from the D (3 of 4 starters in the secondary-including preseason All-American Casey Gough). HC has a quality returning QB in Dominic Randolph who threw 19 TDs against only 6 INT's last season.

2) #20 South Dakota State @ #45 Western Illinois--SDSU returns 18 starters. the Jackrabbits are also picked to finish 4th in a 5-team conference. But, the Leathernecks, they return 7 defensive starters, including Buchanan award candidate Jerome Bennett. Even though WIU only returns 3 starters on Offense, one is 1400+ yard All-American RB Herb Donaldson. Oh, and I'd be remiss if I didn't mention WIU has won 30 consecutive home regular season non-conference wins...

3) #23 Coastal Carolina @ #38 Delaware St--Coastal was hit hard by personnel losses. The Hornets, however, return 15 starters, including the MEAC preseason Player of the Year in senior Shaheer McBride. DSU also returns 4 other MEAC 1st team All-Conference selections (3 defense).

4) #28 San Diego @ Azusa Pacific (0-1 NAIA) --No one was harder on USD last year than myself. And the 40th edition of this game is a perfect example of why. You've got a Torero program that is desperate for playoff credibility, yet gets upset when they can't get it. Here's another reason why you haven't gotten it: YOU'RE AN FCS TRAVELLING TO AN NAIA TEAM!! Yes, USD has Johnson back, we've read all the clippings. They also have a new coach. Azusa returns 12 starters and 55 lettermen (SD returns 14 and 46) and will already have one game under their belt (they were hammered @ NAIA #17 MidAmerica Nazarene in Kansas). AP leads this series overall 21-18. USD CANNOT lose this game (or even have a close score) and retain credibility on this level.

5) Carson-Newman (1-0) @ Chattanooga --CN is ranked #15 in Division 2, and hardcore football fans are quick to note how good Ken Sparks' teams have been for decades. With a game under their belt (a 52-21 blasting of Virginia State), they return 17 starters (only 3 of which are seniors). Mocfans have GOT to be aware of how dangerous this game is.

Bonus:

UNC-Pembroke @ Davidson--DC leading returning rusher is Chad Barnes who tallied 209 total yards last season. UNC-P has 51 redshirts and 15 transfers (including 6-2 TE Justin Hinson, who transferred from Appalachian) who've had nothing else to do for 2 years or so but dream of this game, their first as a Brave football team. A start-up scholarship D2 against a non-scholarship FCS team.

[WA Griz]

I'm looking at that Blue Hen/Tribe opener in the CAA and thinking it could be the game of the week.
followed by Portland State at McNeese.
So. Dak State at W. Ill.
Albany at Colgate
Indiana State at Indiana is a possible upset.

[BigApp]

Albany @ Colgate is definitely one to watch. I had it on my initial list.

[HensRock]

BigApp,
I really like this peice. Keep up the good work.
Albany/Colgate does sound like a real good matchup.
I'll be looking for that HC/UMass one as well - I hope you're right!

[WYOBISONMAN]

I noticed that the SDSU game was on local TV, too bad it isn't making it up on Direct-TV. I would like to see that one.

By the way......for those of you that need a FIX.....this is what is on tonight and the rest of the weekend as far as FCS goes......I think all times are Eastern.

WEEK 1

Thursday, August 30th

Tennessee Tech at Eastern Illinois, CSTV, 7:00pm

Carson-Newman at Chattanooga, CSS, 7:00pm

South Dakota State at Western Illinois, WWIR- Macomb, ill, 7:00pm

Murray State at Louisville, ESPNU, 7:30pm

Delaware at William & Mary, CN8, 7:30pm

Southeastern Louisiana at New Mexico State, Aggievision/ Altitude, 8:00pm

Weber State at Boise State, KTVB 7 - Boise, ID, 9:00pm



SATURDAY, SEPT 1st

Appalachian State at Michigan, BIG Ten Network / Directv 220, 12:00pm

Northeastern at Northwestern, BIG Ten Network / Directv 219, 12:00pm

Youngstown State at Ohio State, BIG Ten Network / Directv 218, 12:00pm

Albany at Colgate, Time Warner Cable - New York, 1:00pm

South Carolina State at Air Force, Mountain West Sports Net, 2:00pm

Arkansas - Pine Bluff at Mississippi Valley State, CSTV, 2:00pm

Southern vs Florida A&M (Birmingham), ESPN Classic, 3:00pm

Eastern Kentucky at Kentucky, Big Blue Sports Net / Directv 782 (gameplan), 6:00pm

Marist at Lafayette, Lafayette Sports Network, 6:00pm

Elon at South Florida, ESPN Gameplan, 7:00pm

Gardner-Webb at Ohio, ESPN Gameplan / Directv 780, 7:00pm

Western Carolina at Alabama, Tide ppv / ESPN Gameplan Directv 777, 7:00pm

Presbyterian at Furman, CSS / WHNS 21 - Greenville, SC, 7:00pm

Tusculum at Liberty, Liberty Channel, 7:00pm

Indiana State at Indiana, BIG Ten Network / Directv 218, 8:00pm

Northern Colorado at Hawaii, Oceanic PPV, 11:59pm

[BigApp]

3-2, not too shabby

#3 Massachusetts-40 vs #40 Holy Cross-30
#20 South Dakota State-26 @ #45 Western Illinois-29
#23 Coastal Carolina-18 @ #38 Delaware St-28
#28 San Diego-42 @ Azusa Pacific-32
Carson-Newman-29 @ Chattanooga-17
Bonus:

UNC-Pembroke-20 @ Davidson-31