Week 10 CAA Prediction Thread

[BDKJMU]

Week 10 CAA Standings

---------CAA/Overall/Left

**ODU 4-1/7-1: @ GST/W&M/@ JMU: 1 of 3 to get in, 2 of 3 to be lock for bye, win out to be lock for seed.

1. UNH 5-1/7-2: W&M/bye/TU: likely need to win 1 of 2 to get in, both to be lock for bye & possible seed.

2. JMU 4-1/6-2: @ UM/@ Nova/ODU: likely need to win 2 of 3 to get in, win out for bye & possible seed.

3. VU 4-2/6-3: bye/JMU/@ UD: likely needs to win out to get in.

4. UR 3-2/5-3: URI/UD/@ W&M: likely need to win out to get in.

-- TU 3-2/4-4: @UD/URI/@ UNH: need to win out to possibly get in.

6. UD 2-3/5-3: TU/@ UR/Villanova: need to win out to get in.


-- UM 2-3/3-5: eliminated from playoff contention.

8. W&M 1-4/2-6: eliminated from playoff contention.

**GST 1-5/1-8: eliminated from playoff contention.

9. URI 0-5/0-8: eliminated from playoff contention.

**In eligible for CAA title

[BDKJMU]

FWIW, CAA stats (CAA games only):

TOTAL OFFENSE Yds/G
----------------------------------------------------------------
1. Old Dominion........533.8
2. New Hampshire....531.3
3. Towson................458.2
4. Richmond.............445.2
5. Villanova..............443.7
6. James Madison...394.0
7. William and Mary..352.0
8. Maine..................351.8
9. Georgia State......347.7
10.Delaware............331.6
11.Rhode Island......280.6

SCORING OFFENSE
--------------------------------------------------------------
1. New Hampshire....41.8
2. Old Dominion........37.0
3. Richmond..............35.0
4. Villanova...............34.2
5. Delaware..............28.2
6. James Madison..25.8
7. Towson................24.6
8. William and Mary..21.8
9. Maine..................20.8
10.Georgia State......20.7
11.Rhode Island.......13.6

RUSHING OFFENSE Yds/G
--------------------------------------------------------
1. Villanova..............260.2
2. New Hampshire...248.2
3. Towson................230.0
4. James Madison....186.0
5. William and Mary..181.0
6. Delaware..............158.8
7. Richmond..............155.4
8. Old Dominion........140.2
9. Georgia State.......138.8
10.Maine..................114.0
11.Rhode Island.......86.6

PASS OFFENSE Yds/G
------------------------------------------------------------------
1. Old Dominion........393.6
2. Richmond..............289.8
3. New Hampshire....283.2
4. Maine...................237.8
5. Towson................228.2
6. Georgia State.......208.8
7. James Madison...208.0
8. Rhode Island.......194.0
9. Villanova..............183.5
10.Delaware............172.8
11.William and Mary.171.0

TOTAL DEFENSE Yds/G
---------------------------------------------------------------
1. Towson................313.6
2. James Madison...334.0
3. William and Mary..347.4
4. Villanova..............385.5
5. Delaware.............387.0
6. Maine..................389.6
7. Georgia State......422.2
8. New Hampshire...451.3
9. Rhode Island.......471.8
10.Richmond............484.4
11.Old Dominion......495.8

SCORING DEFENSE Avg
--------------------------------------------------------------
1. James Madison...19.8
2. Maine..................20.0
3. Towson................23.0
4. Villanova..............23.2
5. William and Mary..25.0
6. Delaware.............27.2
7. Richmond.............29.8
8. New Hampshire...30.0
9. Georgia State......33.0
10.Old Dominion......36.4
11.Rhode Island......38.2

RUSHING DEFENSE Yds/G
----------------------------------------------------------
1. Delaware..............114.6
2. New Hampshire....127.3
3. Villanova...............134.2
4. James Madison....140.8
5. Towson................142.4
6. Maine..................178.4
7. William and Mary..184.6
8. Richmond.............206.2
9. Rhode Island........227.8
10.Old Dominion.......228.8
11.Georgia State......242.7

PASS DEFENSE Yds/G
------------------------------------------------------------------
1. William and Mary..162.8
2. Towson.................171.2
3. Georgia State.......179.5
4. James Madison....193.2
5. Maine...................211.2
6. Rhode Island.........244.0
7. Villanova................251.3
8. Old Dominion.........267.0
9. Delaware...............272.4
10.Richmond..............278.2
11.New Hampshire....324.0
http://www.nmnathletics.com/fls/8500/St ... nfonly.htm

[BDKJMU]

W&M (2-6/1-4) @ UNH (7-2/5-1) (noon)

Towson (4-4/3-2) @ UD (5-3/2-3) (noon, NBC Sports)

ODU (7-1/4-1) @ GST (1-8/1-5) (3:30 pm)

JMU (6-2/4-1) @ Maine (3-5/2-3) (3:30 pm, CSN-MA/CSN-NE/TCN-P/CSN-CA/CSN-NW)

URI (0-8/0-5) @ UR (5-3/3-2) (6 pm)

Bye: Villanova

[BDKJMU]

Something to keep in mind about W&M @ UNH. The last 8 W&M vs UNH games:

01’ W&M 38, UNH 28
02’ W&M 34, @ UNH 27
03’ W&M 38, UNH 28
04’ W&M 9, @ UNH 7
05’ W&M 42, UNH 10 (W&M was 5-6 that season. UNH regular season was 10-1, #1 seed).
08’ W&M 38, @ UNH 34 (W&M was non playoff, UNH made playoffs).
09’ W&M 20, UNH 17
10’ W&M 13, @ UNH 3
11’ W&M 24, UNH 10 (W&M was non playoff, UNH made playoffs).

You have to go back to the last century, 1998, for the last time UNH beat W&M. Will the streak end?

[BDKJMU]

W&M (2-6/1-4) @ UNH (7-2/5-1) (noon) by 7 Tempted to go with W&M here, as UNH no matter how good they've been, hasn't been able to beat W&M this century. I would actually go with W&M if this game was in Williamsburg. Think the streak will finally end...

Towson (4-4/3-2) @ UD (5-3/2-3) (noon, NBC Sports) by 10 Pierce injures his knee vs TU (thought I saw sprained MCL) to add to a long list of UD players out. TU keeps their playoff hopes alive and UD is officially eliminated from playoff contention.

ODU (7-1/4-1) @ GST (1-8/1-5) (3:30 pm) by 21.

JMU (6-2/4-1) @ Maine (3-5/2-3) (3:30 pm, CSN-MA/CSN-NE/TCN-P/CSN-CA/CSN-NW) 20-13.

URI (0-8/0-5) @ UR (5-3/3-2) (6 pm) by 21.

[BDKJMU]

Tempted to go with Maine over JMU:
-JMU has been playing like crap the last 3 weeks.
-Game is at Maine.
-Daequan Scott is listed as questionable due to injury.

On the other hand:
-Maine is 0-3 at home and has played better on the road than at home.
-JMU is ahead of Maine in 7 of those 8 statistical categories listed above.
-I think Birdsong will show an improvement this week in his 2nd start at QB.
-And of course I'm a homer.

[ODUalum78]

Toughest pick week of the season.

Towson @ Delaware 27-24 Delaware at home makes it very close, but there are just too many injuries for the Hens. IF the turnover bug bites Towson, this could go to Delaware.

W&M @ UNH 24-38 Will the downright spooky W&M mastery of UNH continue? Ortiz may be the future for William and Mary if he doesn't kill himself first. The Tribe keeps it close early, but the defense eventually wears down.

JMU @ Maine 17-27 The JMU offense is moving in the wrong direction. I am not sure if JMU has slipped, or if opposition coaches have picked up on something. Birdsong will be a fine QB in the future, but IMO he is not ready yet. The outcome of this game rests with DeQuan Scott (shoulder, ankle); JMU's only consistant offensive threat. He has to be 100% for JMU to win.

ODU @ GSU 48-17 ODU continues to tweak running game. Defense continues it's improvement. With it's best RB Donald Russell out for the season with an injury, this is a bad matchup for GSU. GaST QB Ben McLane is an accurate passer but not a runner. ODU's weakness against the run and running QBs will not be a factor. Pressure should keep McLane from consistantly connecting with deep threat WR Albert Wilson. GSU's best hope is to isolate linebackers in underneath coverage.

URI @ Richmond 10-48 What?

[BDKJMU]

JMU @ Maine 17-27 The JMU offense is moving in the wrong direction. I am not sure if JMU has slipped, or if opposition coaches have picked up on something. Birdsong will be a fine QB in the future, but IMO he is not ready yet. The outcome of this game rests with DeQuan Scott (shoulder, ankle); JMU's only consistant offensive threat. He has to be 100% for JMU to win.

You're right in that JMU may only score 17 on Maine. JMU's offense will be minus 3-5 starters, including possibly DQ.

You're wrong if you think Maine's #8 in Total Offense/#9 in scoring offense is going to score 27 on the #2 in Total Defense/#1 in scoring defense in the CAA. JMU is actually pretty healthy on defense now (believe only will be missing 1 starter, a DT).The only way Maine gets to 27 is with a non offensive TD.

[ODUalum78]

JMU @ Maine 17-27 The JMU offense is moving in the wrong direction. I am not sure if JMU has slipped, or if opposition coaches have picked up on something. Birdsong will be a fine QB in the future, but IMO he is not ready yet. The outcome of this game rests with DeQuan Scott (shoulder, ankle); JMU's only consistant offensive threat. He has to be 100% for JMU to win.

You're right in that JMU may only score 17 on Maine. JMU's offense will be minus 3-5 starters, including possibly DQ.

You're wrong if you think Maine's #8 in Total Offense/#9 in scoring offense is going to score 27 on the #2 in Total Defense/#1 in scoring defense in the CAA. JMU is actually pretty healthy on defense now (believe only will be missing 1 starter, a DT).The only way Maine gets to 27 is with a non offensive TD.

Did I miss something?

In it's last three games; offensive juggernaut W&M (#9 scoring offense) scored 26, UR 35, and mighty GaSt (#10 scoring offense) scored 21 on JMU. It seems to me that, numerically, 27 points from Maine(#8) is right in the statistical ballpark.

Maine is in fact the #8 scorin g offense in the latest stats. http://www.nmnathletics.com/fls/8500/St ... m#conf.wtx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[mcveyrl]

You're right in that JMU may only score 17 on Maine. JMU's offense will be minus 3-5 starters, including possibly DQ.

You're wrong if you think Maine's #8 in Total Offense/#9 in scoring offense is going to score 27 on the #2 in Total Defense/#1 in scoring defense in the CAA. JMU is actually pretty healthy on defense now (believe only will be missing 1 starter, a DT).The only way Maine gets to 27 is with a non offensive TD.

Did I miss something?

In it's last three games; offensive juggernaut W&M (#9 scoring offense) scored 26, UR 35, and mighty GaSt (#10 scoring offense) scored 21 on JMU. It seems to me that, numerically, 27 points from Maine(#8) is right in the statistical ballpark.

Maine is in fact the #8 scorin g offense in the latest stats. http://www.nmnathletics.com/fls/8500/St ... m#conf.wtx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'm not necessarily going to argue with you because our defense is moving in the wrong direction so I don't think 27 from Maine is out of the question, but W&M had two overtimes to score their 26 and Georgia St. scored two fourth quarter TDs when the D was lazy and GSU took advantage of a 60 yard fake punt to score one of their TDs. But I will grant you that if the D looks as bad as it did the first and fourth quarters of GSU and against UR, 27 is possible and probable.

[GannonFan]

I'm not necessarily going to argue with you because our defense is moving in the wrong direction so I don't think 27 from Maine is out of the question, but W&M had two overtimes to score their 26 and Georgia St. scored two fourth quarter TDs when the D was lazy and GSU took advantage of a 60 yard fake punt to score one of their TDs. But I will grant you that if the D looks as bad as it did the first and fourth quarters of GSU and against UR, 27 is possible and probable.

Hey, how come when teams score late in losses to JMU the points those teams score don't matter, yet when JMU scores late in losses, like to Richmond, those JMU points do matter? The selectivity in what does and does not count is truly remarkable.

[BDKJMU]

You're right in that JMU may only score 17 on Maine. JMU's offense will be minus 3-5 starters, including possibly DQ.

You're wrong if you think Maine's #8 in Total Offense/#9 in scoring offense is going to score 27 on the #2 in Total Defense/#1 in scoring defense in the CAA. JMU is actually pretty healthy on defense now (believe only will be missing 1 starter, a DT).The only way Maine gets to 27 is with a non offensive TD.

Did I miss something?

In it's last three games; offensive juggernaut W&M (#9 scoring offense) scored 26, UR 35, and mighty GaSt (#10 scoring offense) scored 21 on JMU. It seems to me that, numerically, 27 points from Maine(#8) is right in the statistical ballpark.

Maine is in fact the #8 scorin g offense in the latest stats. http://www.nmnathletics.com/fls/8500/St ... m#conf.wtx

-W&M scored 17 in regulation against JMU.
-UR scored 35, and they have a much better offense than Maine.
-GST scored 21, but 2 min into the 4th qtr, JMU was up 28-7, and GST had 184 yds of total offense. Then 2 things happened- JMU acted like they already had the game won, and GST scored 2 TDs, one of them essentially off of a 54 yd fake punt which they ran inside JMU's 10 yd line. So JMU's defense essentially gave up 14 and special teams gave up 7.
Hence I said Maine will only get 27 if they score a non offensive TD. Bottom line is we'll see Saturday who's right.

Maine is not #8 in scoring in the latest CONFERENCE ONLY stats. I CLEARLY stated I was using CONFERENCE ONLY stats. Using conference only stats is a better barometer because of everyone playing vastly different OOC schedules, and every now has plyed 5-6 conference games, which is enough to make a meaningful statistical comparison.

Using the link below I always click on Conference Only Stats Leaders:
http://www.nmnathletics.com/fls/8500/St ... nfstat.htm" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[mcveyrl]

I'm not necessarily going to argue with you because our defense is moving in the wrong direction so I don't think 27 from Maine is out of the question, but W&M had two overtimes to score their 26 and Georgia St. scored two fourth quarter TDs when the D was lazy and GSU took advantage of a 60 yard fake punt to score one of their TDs. But I will grant you that if the D looks as bad as it did the first and fourth quarters of GSU and against UR, 27 is possible and probable.

Hey, how come when teams score late in losses to JMU the points those teams score don't matter, yet when JMU scores late in losses, like to Richmond, those JMU points do matter? The selectivity in what does and does not count is truly remarkable.

If you'll notice, I specifically state that if the defense plays like it did when those points were scored, we're toast. I was okay with how the defense played the rest of the time. My only point was the Jekyll and Hyde nature of the defense, admittedly trending more towards Hyde than Jekyll.

And just so I'm on record (and since I didn't mention it in my post - although you felt the need to say something about it), I personally severely discount both the late points and Birdsong's performance against UR...

[CAA Flagship]

UNH 37 W&M 17

Towson 28 UD 24

ODU 42 GST 21

Maine 21 JMU 17

UR 34 URI 14

[bluehenbillk]

Haiku week:

UNH 34 W&M 23
Tribe goes cold this week
Wildcats shooting for a bye
No Tribe jinx this year

UD 23 TU 20
Good handshake this time?
Two Jekyll & Hyde squads square
Less faith in Tigers

ODU 35 GSU 17
Tons of empty seats
Heinecke back to air scores
No surprises here

UM 17 JMU 9
Save on scoreboard lights
A grudge match on the tundra
Mickey throws the hat

UR 38 URI 16
Rams are really bad
Spiders smelling playoff bid
Not too close at all

[olddominiontpt]

W&M (2-6/1-4) @ UNH (7-2/5-1) (noon)
W&M eventually has to lose to UNH; this seems like the time UNH will end the streak. UNH 35-24
Towson (4-4/3-2) @ UD (5-3/2-3) (noon, NBC Sports)
Hard to choose between these two, especially at Delaware. Towson hasn't played well on the road, so I'll take UD 27-21
ODU (7-1/4-1) @ GST (1-8/1-5) (3:30 pm)
I'll take ODU 42-24. Should be a blowout, but defense could still struggle.
JMU (6-2/4-1) @ Maine (3-5/2-3) (3:30 pm, CSN-MA/CSN-NE/TCN-P/CSN-CA/CSN-NW)
Maine could play spoiler here, but I see JMU 20-14 in a great defensive game
URI (0-8/0-5) @ UR (5-3/3-2) (6 pm)
Richmond 38-21 Rhode Island probably won't win a game this year.

[GannonFan]

Hey, how come when teams score late in losses to JMU the points those teams score don't matter, yet when JMU scores late in losses, like to Richmond, those JMU points do matter? The selectivity in what does and does not count is truly remarkable.

If you'll notice, I specifically state that if the defense plays like it did when those points were scored, we're toast. I was okay with how the defense played the rest of the time. My only point was the Jekyll and Hyde nature of the defense, admittedly trending more towards Hyde than Jekyll.

And just so I'm on record (and since I didn't mention it in my post - although you felt the need to say something about it), I personally severely discount both the late points and Birdsong's performance against UR...

Didn't mean to necessarily impinge you on that point - I was using the UR reference to poke fun at another JMU poster. I know you guys all don't look alike.

[Longhorn]

Haiku week:

UNH 34 W&M 23
Tribe goes cold this week
Wildcats shooting for a bye
No Tribe jinx this year

UD 23 TU 20
Good handshake this time?
Two Jekyll & Hyde squads square
Less faith in Tigers

ODU 35 GSU 17
Tons of empty seats
Heinecke back to air scores
No surprises here

UM 17 JMU 9
Save on scoreboard lights
A grudge match on the tundra
Mickey throws the hat

UR 38 URI 16
Rams are really bad
Spiders smelling playoff bid
Not too close at all

Mickey didn't throw a visor or hat today, but he did remove his headset early after the Dukes went up 31-0. Hope you didn't place bets on UD or Maine today.

[BDKJMU]

You're right in that JMU may only score 17 on Maine. JMU's offense will be minus 3-5 starters, including possibly DQ.

You're wrong if you think Maine's #8 in Total Offense/#9 in scoring offense is going to score 27 on the #2 in Total Defense/#1 in scoring defense in the CAA. JMU is actually pretty healthy on defense now (believe only will be missing 1 starter, a DT).The only way Maine gets to 27 is with a non offensive TD.

Did I miss something?

In it's last three games; offensive juggernaut W&M (#9 scoring offense) scored 26, UR 35, and mighty GaSt (#10 scoring offense) scored 21 on JMU. It seems to me that, numerically, 27 points from Maine(#8) is right in the statistical ballpark.

Maine is in fact the #8 scorin g offense in the latest stats. http://www.nmnathletics.com/fls/8500/St ... m#conf.wtx" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Yes, you did.

Maine had 104 yds of total offense and their offense scored ZERO on a suffocating JMU defense.

[BDKJMU]

Maine 21 JMU 17

JMU @ Maine 17-27 The JMU offense is moving in the wrong direction. I am not sure if JMU has slipped, or if opposition coaches have picked up on something. Birdsong will be a fine QB in the future, but IMO he is not ready yet. The outcome of this game rests with DeQuan Scott (shoulder, ankle); JMU's only consistant offensive threat. He has to be 100% for JMU to win.

UM 17 JMU 9
Save on scoreboard lights
A grudge match on the tundra
Mickey throws the hat

This one wasn't even as close as the 31-7 score.
Total offense: JMU 476, Maine 104.
Maine had 19 yds rushing on 22 carries. JMU picked off Wasilewski 3 times and sacked him 3 times (which doesn't tell the whole story- he took a lot of hits and avoided a # of sacks only by making it back to the line of scrimmage).

The only thing JMU couldn't manage to do was down the ball. Up 31-0 with the ball at the Maine 34 on 3rd down with about 50 seconds left Birdsong tries to run with the ball, suffers an ankle injury as he is stripped at the 33, and Maine a Maine defender runs it 67 yds for a meaningless TD, other than it kept JMU from pitching a shutout.

Dae'Quan Scott after rushing for 130 last week goings for 121 on 23 carries.

Thorpe in about 2/3 of the game:
Passing 9-12, 108 yds, 1 TD, 0 Int.
Rushing 16 carries, 111 yds, 2 TDs, 0 fumbles.

Birdsong gets pulled in the 2nd series of the 1st qtr. Comes in for a few plays 2nd & 3rd qtr before coming in the last series of the game:
Passing 5-8, 54 yds, 0 TD, 0 INT
Rushing 4 for 13, 0 TD, 0 fumbles

Looks like Birdsong is done for the season.

[BDKJMU]

W&M (2-6/1-4) @ UNH (7-2/5-1) (noon) by 7 Tempted to go with W&M here, as UNH no matter how good they've been, hasn't been able to beat W&M this century. I would actually go with W&M if this game was in Williamsburg. Think the streak will finally end...

UNH 28, W&M 25

Towson (4-4/3-2) @ UD (5-3/2-3) (noon, NBC Sports) by 10 Pierce injures his knee vs TU (thought I saw sprained MCL) to add to a long list of UD players out. TU keeps their playoff hopes alive and UD is officially eliminated from playoff contention.

TU 34, UD 27 in OT

ODU (7-1/4-1) @ GST (1-8/1-5) (3:30 pm) by 21.

ODU 53, GST 27

JMU (6-2/4-1) @ Maine (3-5/2-3) (3:30 pm, CSN-MA/CSN-NE/TCN-P/CSN-CA/CSN-NW) 20-13.

JMU 31, Maine 7

URI (0-8/0-5) @ UR (5-3/3-2) (6 pm) by 21.

UR 39, URI 0

The only one on here 5-0 this week.

[CAA Flagship]

UNH 37 W&M 17 (28-25)

Towson 28 UD 24 (34-27)

ODU 42 GST 21 (53-27)

Maine 21 JMU 17 (7-31)

UR 34 URI 14 (39-0)

Another 1 loss week.
I guess JMU avenged that heartbreaker loss from last year.