New SH Bracketology

[BisoNation]

The MVC may well be considered a "power conference," but it's certainly not the only one. I would also consider the CAA, the SoCon, and the Big Sky in that category as well.

So would I...

[SuperHornet]

Besides, shouldn't you be happy that I have NDSU repeating?

[BisoNation]

Besides, shouldn't you be happy that I have NDSU repeating?

I am I like the pick, and I have it happening now too. I see a similar path as last year. Although, if you'd have seen our offense these past few weeks you might be picking differently. The past 2 years NDSU has always come out a new/refreshed team going into the playoffs though so I can only expect the same.

Oh and btw, I'm not questioning the quality of Sacramento State. They're more than playoff quality. If only they would have beaten that shitty team to the north of Fargo...then we could say they're a for sure in if they beat UC Davis. Unfortunately, no 7 win teams will make the field this year IMO.

[SuperHornet]

Yeah, I think that's the kicker, BisoNation. IF a 7-4 team makes it, IMO, it HAS to be Sac. But regardless of my reasoning for passing Sac past some 8-3 (and a couple of 9-2) teams, there will be an argument just as good for excluding ALL 7-win teams. I think if Sac destroys Davis to the degree Weber, Portland State, and Montana took care of Idaho State, that MIGHT help, but I'm not sure that even running up triple digits on the Ags would do the job (not that we would). And I find beating a squad that bad to be unpalatable. It comes back to bite you in the butt in the end....

[SeawolvesFan90]

After this week's games and a look at resumes, I settled on this. Let me state right from the get-go that there is a bit of homerism here as I recognize that ECB will likely keep Sac out at 7-4. But after looking at other teams, I eliminated some for having no big wins or for playing D-II, allowing me to enter Sac (even if a bit dubiously) as the only 7-4 team in the field in the last spot (just barely, BTW). I tried to regionalize it, but didn't get as good a regionalized deal as the last one. There are a LOT of teams having to cross the Mississippi in this scenario. You'll note that a LOT of teams from my previous bracket have dropped out. I emphasized my poll last time, and my evaluation of resumes this time, and some that I had up pretty high in my poll washed out. Additionally, I had to make a few guesses as to the auto-bids as a LOT of conferences look to have ties at the top, and I don't know how they plan to break the ties. Theoretically, the Big South can have a 3-way tie between Stony Brook, Coastal, and Liberty, with all three 1-1 H2H, but I'm presuming here for sake of argument that Stony Brook wins the auto-bid regardless, and that CCU and Liberty are both toast.

First Round

Sac St (7-4) @ TN-Martin (8-3)
Wagner (8-3) @ Appalachian St (8-3)
TN St (9-2) @ Lehigh (11-0)
Bethune-Cookman (9-2) @ Cal Poly (9-2)

Second Round

Sac/Martin Winner @ 1 NDSU (10-1)
SHSU (8-3) @ NAU (9-2)
Stony Brook (9-2) @ 5 EWU (9-2)
Wag/App Winner @ 4 MSU

TN St/Lehigh Winner @ 3 UNH (9-2)
JMU (8-3) @ GA Southern (8-3)
Wofford (8-3) @ UCA (9-2)
BCC/CP Winner @ 2 ODU (10-1)

I still have an NDSU-ODU final with NDSU winning.

This doesn't make sense. If you assume SBU is beating liberty next week then SBUs final record would be 10-1 not 9-2. Also, the only loss would be to FBS BCS Syracuse 17-28 and one of the wins was against a D-II team then we pretty much would have a 9-0 record. A 9-0** record has to be good enough to be seeded. I'm hopeful that we climb up the polls in the next two weeks

[Bison Fan in NW MN]

Besides, shouldn't you be happy that I have NDSU repeating?

The Bison offense (QB decision making) needs to get better before they sniff a repeat.

Both SDSU and Ill State, if they finish 8-3, are in. NDSU might lose to both and all three end up 9-2. If this happens then Ill State gets the auto-bid...I think.

You should be cheering for NDSU to beat both of them, then maybe your scenario might play out. But I don't see a 7-4 Sac St team getting in before a 8-3 SDSU or Ill State team.

[proasu89]

The odds of us playing an opening round game are not very good. If we beat FU, almost all of the tie breaking formulas have us as the auto bid. It is much more likely that Wofford would play over Thanksgiving. If we finish 7-4 I think we're probably out.

[skinny_uncle]

Besides, shouldn't you be happy that I have NDSU repeating?

The Bison offense (QB decision making) needs to get better before they sniff a repeat.

Both SDSU and Ill State, if they finish 8-3, are in. NDSU might lose to both and all three end up 9-2. If this happens then Ill State gets the auto-bid...I think.

You should be cheering for NDSU to beat both of them, then maybe your scenario might play out. But I don't see a 7-4 Sac St team getting in before a 8-3 SDSU or Ill State team.

Exactly.

[BisoNation]

Besides, shouldn't you be happy that I have NDSU repeating?

The Bison offense (QB decision making) needs to get better before they sniff a repeat.

Both SDSU and Ill State, if they finish 8-3, are in. NDSU might lose to both and all three end up 9-2. If this happens then Ill State gets the auto-bid...I think.

You should be cheering for NDSU to beat both of them, then maybe your scenario might play out. But I don't see a 7-4 Sac St team getting in before a 8-3 SDSU or Ill State team.

If SDSU beats us they'll be conference champs, assuming they can beat South Dakota too. If we beat them, then lose to Ill St we would be tied for conference champs, but they would have the tie-breaker since they beat us.

[SuperHornet]

After this week's games and a look at resumes, I settled on this. Let me state right from the get-go that there is a bit of homerism here as I recognize that ECB will likely keep Sac out at 7-4. But after looking at other teams, I eliminated some for having no big wins or for playing D-II, allowing me to enter Sac (even if a bit dubiously) as the only 7-4 team in the field in the last spot (just barely, BTW). I tried to regionalize it, but didn't get as good a regionalized deal as the last one. There are a LOT of teams having to cross the Mississippi in this scenario. You'll note that a LOT of teams from my previous bracket have dropped out. I emphasized my poll last time, and my evaluation of resumes this time, and some that I had up pretty high in my poll washed out. Additionally, I had to make a few guesses as to the auto-bids as a LOT of conferences look to have ties at the top, and I don't know how they plan to break the ties. Theoretically, the Big South can have a 3-way tie between Stony Brook, Coastal, and Liberty, with all three 1-1 H2H, but I'm presuming here for sake of argument that Stony Brook wins the auto-bid regardless, and that CCU and Liberty are both toast.

First Round

Sac St (7-4) @ TN-Martin (8-3)
Wagner (8-3) @ Appalachian St (8-3)
TN St (9-2) @ Lehigh (11-0)
Bethune-Cookman (9-2) @ Cal Poly (9-2)

Second Round

Sac/Martin Winner @ 1 NDSU (10-1)
SHSU (8-3) @ NAU (9-2)
Stony Brook (9-2) @ 5 EWU (9-2)
Wag/App Winner @ 4 MSU

TN St/Lehigh Winner @ 3 UNH (9-2)
JMU (8-3) @ GA Southern (8-3)
Wofford (8-3) @ UCA (9-2)
BCC/CP Winner @ 2 ODU (10-1)

I still have an NDSU-ODU final with NDSU winning.

This doesn't make sense. If you assume SBU is beating liberty next week then SBUs final record would be 10-1 not 9-2. Also, the only loss would be to FBS BCS Syracuse 17-28 and one of the wins was against a D-II team then we pretty much would have a 9-0 record. A 9-0** record has to be good enough to be seeded. I'm hopeful that we climb up the polls in the next two weeks

Not necessarily. In the event of a three-way tie, the auto-bid could go to Stony Brook based on either a coin flip or on poll ranking. While the first would suck due to the significant chance that potential 6-5 Liberty could get it, leaving SBU out in the cold (I have a hard time seeing the Big South as a better-than-one-bid conference), there is FBS precedent for the poll-ranking tie-breaker. There may also be a common-opponents or point differential tiebreaker, either of which SBU should win handily.

[Theee Catrabbit]

Historically: No 8-3 MVFC team has been left out of the playoffs. None. Zip. With a bigger field, it just isn't going to happen.

My bet is on 3 Valley teams are in.

[Thumper 76]

They would need to beat YSU first on their last game, one of those wins is D-2, so they're only at 6 D-1 wins.

Which was why I eliminated IN St.

As far as IL St, that FBS win is meaningless in comparison to Sac, as Sac has a Pac-12 win with the same record as the MAC POS IL St beat.

EDIT: Additionally, two of Sac's losses are by a combined LESS THAN A FULL TOUCHDOWN to the then-#1 and then-#3 team in the country. The loss to potential 6-5 UND washes out with IL St's loss to potential 6-5 SIU. That leaves IL St with a devastating loss to potential 3-8 SW MO. Sac comes out better in the wash than IL St, IMO. I think 86 can come up with a better candidate....

So whats the rational thinking for putting Sac in over SDSU? Cause there is literally no real reason for it besides blissful homerism from where I sit with my blue and yellow glasses

[isumatt]

Illinois State is in, period! They were edged out at with 7-4, but at worst an 8-3 record this year gets them a home 1st round game. Beat NDSU in 2 weeks and we are looking at a seed!!

[UNHWildCats]

I know I'm going to regret asking because your answer will probably involve jesus and what you ate today, but how would a 9-2 UNH and a 9-1 MSU beat out 9-2 EWU for higher seeds? EWU has played much tougher schedule than both, no blowout losses, FBS win, and head to head over MSU.

Please oh please tell me how Eastern Washington has a tougher schedule than UNH? Idaho is crap and any top FCS team could beat them, Washington State is a sub-500 team. In conference EWU has a loss to a sub 500 team. In Conference you may end up with just 3 wins vs winning teams.

Yes UNH lost bad to Minnesota, but unlike Washington state they do have a winning record at the moment. UNH also did lose the QB they had game planned for early in that game due to injury. UNH's lone conference loss was to ODU by a FG, ODU is also aiming for a seed so thats a very good loss. UNH would also have 3 conference wins vs winning teams.

There's just no validity to your claim that EWU had a tougher schedule, overall the two schedules are pretty damn even, and what it will come down to is UNH having a better conference loss than EWU.

[Ibanez]

This doesn't make sense. If you assume SBU is beating liberty next week then SBUs final record would be 10-1 not 9-2. Also, the only loss would be to FBS BCS Syracuse 17-28 and one of the wins was against a D-II team then we pretty much would have a 9-0 record. A 9-0** record has to be good enough to be seeded. I'm hopeful that we climb up the polls in the next two weeks

Not necessarily. In the event of a three-way tie, the auto-bid could go to Stony Brook based on either a coin flip or on poll ranking. While the first would suck due to the significant chance that potential 6-5 Liberty could get it, leaving SBU out in the cold (I have a hard time seeing the Big South as a better-than-one-bid conference), there is FBS precedent for the poll-ranking tie-breaker. There may also be a common-opponents or point differential tiebreaker, either of which SBU should win handily.

No you're wrong. That isn't how the Big South breaks a tie. A coin flip, are you serious? Someone, correct me if i'm wrong, but I believe points allowed in Big South games decide the winner not an arbitrary coin flip. This is how CCU beat out Stony Brook and Liberty last time.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I know I'm going to regret asking because your answer will probably involve jesus and what you ate today, but how would a 9-2 UNH and a 9-1 MSU beat out 9-2 EWU for higher seeds? EWU has played much tougher schedule than both, no blowout losses, FBS win, and head to head over MSU.

Please oh please tell me how Eastern Washington has a tougher schedule than UNH? Idaho is crap and any top FCS team could beat them, Washington State is a sub-500 team. In conference EWU has a loss to a sub 500 team. In Conference you may end up with just 3 wins vs winning teams.

Yes UNH lost bad to Minnesota, but unlike Washington state they do have a winning record at the moment. UNH also did lose the QB they had game planned for early in that game due to injury. UNH's lone conference loss was to ODU by a FG, ODU is also aiming for a seed so thats a very good loss. UNH would also have 3 conference wins vs winning teams.

There's just no validity to your claim that EWU had a tougher schedule, overall the two schedules are pretty damn even, and what it will come down to is UNH having a better conference loss than EWU.

Holy Cross, CCSU, and Rhode Island are worse than any team EWU has on it's schedule. Our arguably worst/easiest opponent, Idaho, is on par with Georgia State. Minnesota was only 3 points better than UNLV... Wazzu was 8 points better than UNLV.

Please tell me, what are UNH's quality wins? Delaware? Richmond? You lost to the best team on your schedule, ODU. We beat the best teams on our schedule, #2 MSU and #16 CP. Delaware would equate with Montana, who was ranked #21 when we beat them. Currently, UNH only has TWO wins over conference teams that have a winning record, which could soon be one if UD drops their next two which is more than possible. Don't get your panties in a twist UNH, but your schedule is weaker than EWU's, by a fair margin.

[SuperHornet]

You're late, Mark. One of the LU guys posted the official Big South policy in the blog thread....

[BlueHen86]

You're late, Mark. One of the LU guys posted the official Big South policy in the blog thread....

Maybe not everyone reads the blog thread....

[olddominiontpt]

Yes UNH lost bad to Minnesota, but unlike Washington state they do have a winning record at the moment. UNH also did lose the QB they had game planned for early in that game due to injury. UNH's lone conference loss was to ODU by a FG, ODU is also aiming for a seed so thats a very good loss. UNH would also have 3 conference wins vs winning teams.

Yay! We're a good loss! Crazy what can change in four years!

[Ibanez]

You're late, Mark. One of the LU guys posted the official Big South policy in the blog thread....

Good for him. I posted the information so you don't have to waste your time on another site.

I still can't believe you suggested a coin flip.

[SuperHornet]

I'm not the one who came up with the idea, Mark. I think a conference somewhere used it as recently as last year....

[Ibanez]

I'm not the one who came up with the idea, Mark. I think a conference somewhere used it as recently as last year....

I didn't say that, Snickers. I said you suggested it.

Learn to Read.