Playoff Log5 Probabilities

[Adam H]

Code: Select all

                  winpct	  rd4     rd5
North Dakota St    75.1%	69.2%	44.1%
Towson             64.7%	53.4%	23.4%
Eastern Washington 61.6%	46.6%	19.0%
New Hampshire      57.3%	30.8%	13.5%

In case anyone is still curious.

[AZGrizFan]

After second round:

Code: Select all

                  winpct	  rd3     rd4     rd5
North Dakota St    74.5%	69.5%	45.6%	26.7%
Eastern Illinois   75.2%	65.1%	44.0%	26.3%
Southeastern LA    63.9%	58.8%	25.8%	12.0%
Eastern Washington 60.7%	53.2%	20.7%	 9.0%
Towson             61.9%	34.9%	18.4%	 8.2%
Jacksonville St    57.5%	46.8%	16.8%	 6.8%
New Hampshire      55.3%	41.2%	14.7%	 5.6%
Coastal Carolina   56.2%	30.5%	13.9%	 5.4%

Eastern Washington made the biggest jump, from 4.4% chance to win the championship to 9.0%. That was a tough SDSU team they just dominated, and their winpct went up accordingly. SELA didn't impress in their win over SHSU, so while they were once the clear cut #3 team, EWU and Towson have basically caught up with them.

Remember that this doesn't take into account home field advantage, so the home teams are more likely to win than these percentages indicate. Especially EWU on that nice red field. Still, I wouldn't be that shocked if JSU pulled off the upset.

So, your "model" picked 50% of the games last weekend. Like a dartboard. Me thinks it needs some tweaking. And no, I didn't say twerking.

[Adam H]

Yes, there were two upsets and therefore I'm a moron. I picked the same four teams that everyone else picked!

[clenz]

I actually correctly picked these 4 teams as the semi finalists on selection Sunday

[AZGrizFan]

Yes, there were two upsets and therefore I'm a moron. I picked the same four teams that everyone else picked!

Those didn't look like "upsets". Did you watch the games?

[Adam H]

By upset, I just meant that the majority of people predicting the game predicted the winner to lose. Not that the team that won "should not have" won, because that line of thinking is stupid.

I actually correctly picked these 4 teams as the semi finalists on selection Sunday

Link or didn't happen!