Playoff Teams?

[AZGrizFan]

So dback you're certain then, that ISU beats MSU, since you have them in bold and they need to win out to have 7 D-I wins. Given that, MSU doesn't can't possibly go 8-4 (at least, both Montana AND MSU can't be 8-4).

[dbackjon]

So dback you're certain then, that ISU beats MSU, since you have them in bold and they need to win out to have 7 D-I wins. Given that, MSU doesn't can't possibly go 8-4 (at least, both Montana AND MSU can't be 8-4).

That is why I said the winner of the Montana/Montana State game would be on the bubble. Winner goes 8-4 and in the mix, loser goes 7-5 and sits home.

[93henfan]

A 7 d-1 win team with a victory over a late season #1. Would that be playoff worthy?

Because that's exactly where a shitty UD team would be with a huge upset on Saturday.

[AZGrizFan]

Auto-bids:
NAU
CCU
UNH
SCSU
NDSU
Bryant
JSU
Fordham
San Diego
UTC
SELA

At-Large Locks: (if they win out. EWU is only one a lock regardless of winning out)
EWU
Richmond
Villanova
B-CU
Illinois State
Northern Iowa
Eastern Kentucky

At-Large Bubble (6 more at-larges at stake - my predicted 6 in bold)
Cal-Poly
Montana
Montana State
Idaho State
Liberty
JMU
YSU
ISUb
SDSU
Sacred Heart
Bucknell
McNeese
SHSU
SFA

Last Spot came down between 8-4 Montana/Montana State winner, 8-4 Liberty, 8-4 YSU, 9-2 Bucknell, 8-4 McNeese, or 8-4 SHSU

Jacksonville St holds the tiebreaker over USD in the Pioneer, having won their head-to-head.

[dbackjon]

If Liberty wins out to finish 9-3, then they are in, YSU out.
If Delaware wins out to finish 8-4, they would make a strong case
If YSU's 8-4 included a win over NDSU, they would stay in

[93henfan]

If Liberty wins out to finish 9-3, then they are in, YSU out.
If Delaware wins out to finish 8-4, they would make a strong case
If YSU's 8-4 included a win over NDSU, they would stay in

Your chances in the Pick 4 Lottery are better than Delaware beating UNH and Nova, but if we did it we'd be in for sure.

[dbackjon]

Auto-bids:
NAU
CCU
UNH
SCSU
NDSU
Bryant
JSU
Fordham
San Diego
UTC
SELA

At-Large Locks: (if they win out. EWU is only one a lock regardless of winning out)
EWU
Richmond
Villanova
B-CU
Illinois State
Northern Iowa
Eastern Kentucky

At-Large Bubble (6 more at-larges at stake - my predicted 6 in bold)
Cal-Poly
Montana
Montana State
Idaho State
Liberty
JMU
YSU
ISUb
SDSU
Sacred Heart
Bucknell
McNeese
SHSU
SFA

Last Spot came down between 8-4 Montana/Montana State winner, 8-4 Liberty, 8-4 YSU, 9-2 Bucknell, 8-4 McNeese, or 8-4 SHSU

Jacksonville St holds the tiebreaker over USD in the Pioneer, having won their head-to-head.

Jacksonville State is in the OVC.
Jacksonville is in the Pioneer

The Dolphins are losing to the Camels!








Honestly, too lazy to look up Pioneer

[kalm]

If Liberty wins out to finish 9-3, then they are in, YSU out.
If Delaware wins out to finish 8-4, they would make a strong case
If YSU's 8-4 included a win over NDSU, they would stay in

Your chances in the Pick 4 Lottery are better than Delaware beating UNH and Nova, but if we did it we'd be in for sure.

GO YOU HENS!

[dbackjon]

If Liberty wins out to finish 9-3, then they are in, YSU out.
If Delaware wins out to finish 8-4, they would make a strong case
If YSU's 8-4 included a win over NDSU, they would stay in

Your chances in the Pick 4 Lottery are better than Delaware beating UNH and Nova, but if we did it we'd be in for sure.

[93henfan]

Your chances in the Pick 4 Lottery are better than Delaware beating UNH and Nova, but if we did it we'd be in for sure.

I posted that vid earlier today on GoHens. JC's "YEEEAAAH!!!" after he says it makes me giggle every time.

[Gil Dobie]

Last Spot came down between 8-4 Montana/Montana State winner*, 8-4 Liberty, 8-4 YSU, 9-2 Bucknell, 8-4 McNeese, or 8-4 SHSU

YSU and SHSU would have 8 DI wins, Montana/Montana St winner, Liberty, McNeese would have 7 D1 wins and Bucknell 9. YSU 3 fcs and lower losses, SHSU 4 fcs and lower losses.

[dbackjon]

Last Spot came down between 8-4 Montana/Montana State winner*, 8-4 Liberty, 8-4 YSU, 9-2 Bucknell, 8-4 McNeese, or 8-4 SHSU

YSU and SHSU would have 8 DI wins, Montana/Montana St winner, Liberty, McNeese would have 7 D1 wins and Bucknell 9. YSU 3 fcs and lower losses, SHSU 4 fcs and lower losses.

Bucknell - one win over team with winning record (Sacred Heart)
SHSU - wins over McNeese and SFA, DII Loss
McNeese - would have a win over SELA, but losses to SHSU and SFA
YSU - wins over SDSU, SIU and ISUb(projected), loss to WIU
Liberty - best win - Bryant or App State
Montana - only wins over teams with winning record would be MSU, possibly Sac State
Montana State - Sac State, UCA are best wins to date.


This analysis is why I picked YSU for last spot

[Robsnotes4u]

If Liberty wins out to finish 9-3, then they are in, YSU out.
If Delaware wins out to finish 8-4, they would make a strong case
If YSU's 8-4 included a win over NDSU, they would stay in

Eastern Kentucky?
8 D1 wins probably end with 10
Sagarin rated at 26
Massey rated at 22
They should be a bubble team depending on how things work out the next two weeks

Last year only 5 teams got in with 7 D1 wins or less, and three of those were auto bids.

Missed it

[dbackjon]

If Liberty wins out to finish 9-3, then they are in, YSU out.
If Delaware wins out to finish 8-4, they would make a strong case
If YSU's 8-4 included a win over NDSU, they would stay in

Eastern Kentucky?
8 D1 wins probably end with 10
Sagarin rated at 26
Massey rated at 22
They should be a bubble team depending on how things work out the next two weeks

Last year only 5 teams got in with 7 D1 wins or less, and three of those were auto bids.

Missed it

They are in my At-Large LOCKS
1) FBS win
2) Win over Resurgent EIU\
3) - they do have a bad loss to TTU
4) I don't think the OVC will not get an at-large, EKU is only candidate.

[AZGrizFan]

Jacksonville State is in the OVC.
Jacksonville is in the Pioneer

The Dolphins are losing to the Camels!

Honestly, too lazy to look up Pioneer

Jacksonville...Jacksonville St....honestly, who cares, right?

[JohnStOnge]

You can probably stick a fork in McNeese. They'd probably be in the playoffs if they could win their last two games but they got a coup de grace with respect to their overwhelming injury toll when Kansas State transfer QB Daniel Sams was knocked out for the season early in the second quarter against Stephen F. Austin.

At this point it would take an absolute miracle for them to beat Southeastern Louisiana this weekend then if they do that they'd have their hands full with Lamar the next week given what they've got left personnel wise.

I'm going to go ahead and cross my fingers and hope for the best but it really is sad to see them where they are now after all the promise they looked to have when they opened the season at Nebraska.

[BDKJMU]

-MVFC, while clearly the top conference isn't going to get 5 of their 10 teams in. Maybe not 4. Could very well end up with 3 in and 4 teams at 7-5/6-6.

There is a very good chance that 5 MVFC teams will have 8 wins. Going to be tough to pick from those teams.

Could be. I see for that to happen:
-YSU would have to split their next 2 vs Indiana ST & @ NDSU.
-2 of the 4 at 6-4 would have to win out (or 3 of 4 if YSU drops their next 2).

The chances would be better of that happening if:
-UNI doesn't have a monster letdown and lose @ SIU,
-WIU doesn't pull upsets in the next 2 games (of the 3 without winning records I take it WIU is the one most capable of pulling an upset (and I see they only are sub .500 because they played 2 Big 10).

I think the chances of 3 now are nil. My $$ is till on 4. 5 at 8 wins wouldn't surprise me though, and any 8 win MVFC is going to be ahead of any 8 win from any other conference.

[kalm]

Eastern Kentucky?
8 D1 wins probably end with 10
Sagarin rated at 26
Massey rated at 22
They should be a bubble team depending on how things work out the next two weeks

Last year only 5 teams got in with 7 D1 wins or less, and three of those were auto bids.

Missed it

They are in my At-Large LOCKS
1) FBS win
2) Win over Resurgent EIU\
3) - they do have a bad loss to TTU
4) I don't think the OVC will not get an at-large, EKU is only candidate.

Very strong work here, D. I agree.

[skinny_uncle]

If Liberty wins out to finish 9-3, then they are in, YSU out.
If Delaware wins out to finish 8-4, they would make a strong case
If YSU's 8-4 included a win over NDSU, they would stay in

Eastern Kentucky?
8 D1 wins probably end with 10
Sagarin rated at 26
Massey rated at 22
They should be a bubble team depending on how things work out the next two weeks

Last year only 5 teams got in with 7 D1 wins or less, and three of those were auto bids.

Missed it

What happens if Jax State loses to EIU and the Panthers go on to take the autobid. Would that make the OVC a three bid league?

[GannonFan]

YSU and SHSU would have 8 DI wins, Montana/Montana St winner, Liberty, McNeese would have 7 D1 wins and Bucknell 9. YSU 3 fcs and lower losses, SHSU 4 fcs and lower losses.

Bucknell - one win over team with winning record (Sacred Heart)
SHSU - wins over McNeese and SFA, DII Loss
McNeese - would have a win over SELA, but losses to SHSU and SFA
YSU - wins over SDSU, SIU and ISUb(projected), loss to WIU
Liberty - best win - Bryant or App State
Montana - only wins over teams with winning record would be MSU, possibly Sac State
Montana State - Sac State, UCA are best wins to date.


This analysis is why I picked YSU for last spot

You have SFA in over SHSU - might be a tough one since SHSU beat SFA head to head two weeks ago and they would both have the same number of FCS wins if they both win out and SHSU would be ahead of SFA in the Southland standings. How many times has a 3rd place team jumped over a 2nd place team for a playoff spot, especially when the third place team lost to the second place team?

[89Hen]

What happens if Jax State loses to EIU and the Panthers go on to take the autobid. Would that make the OVC a three bid league?

Unfortunately, yes (assuming JSU wins other game and EKU wins out).

[89Hen]

Mabye this was covered but let's play a MVFC "what if"...

Indiana State loses to YSU, beats WIU, finishes 7-5
UNI loses to SIU, beats MSU, finishes 7-5
SIU beats UNI, loses to NDSU, finishes 7-5
SDSU loses to WIU, beats USD, finishes 7-5

I think the first three are very possible, and WIU is no pushover (ask YSU). Is the MVFC possibly looking at only three bids??

[Grizalltheway]

Mabye this was covered but let's play a MVFC "what if"...

Indiana State loses to YSU, beats WIU, finishes 7-5
UNI loses to SIU, beats MSU, finishes 7-5
SIU beats UNI, loses to NDSU, finishes 7-5
SDSU loses to WIU, beats USD, finishes 7-5

I think the first three are very possible, and WIU is no pushover (ask YSU). Is the MVFC possibly looking at only three bids??

I certainly hope so. The meltdown when the Big Sky gets 4 will be epic.

[dbackjon]

Eastern Kentucky?
8 D1 wins probably end with 10
Sagarin rated at 26
Massey rated at 22
They should be a bubble team depending on how things work out the next two weeks

Last year only 5 teams got in with 7 D1 wins or less, and three of those were auto bids.

Missed it

What happens if Jax State loses to EIU and the Panthers go on to take the autobid. Would that make the OVC a three bid league?

People cry

[Gil Dobie]

Mabye this was covered but let's play a MVFC "what if"...

Indiana State loses to YSU, beats WIU, finishes 7-5
UNI loses to SIU, beats MSU, finishes 7-5
SIU beats UNI, loses to NDSU, finishes 7-5
SDSU loses to WIU, beats USD, finishes 7-5

I think the first three are very possible, and WIU is no pushover (ask YSU). Is the MVFC possibly looking at only three bids??

UNI's 7-3 FCS record and win over NDSU could be enough to get them in.