FCS Playoff Hopefuls

[DoubleNicks]

I posted this on eGriz last night. It's mainly just a listing of the potential teams that could reach 7 Division I wins without comparing SOS, quality wins, bad losses, etc. If anyone has insight on the Automatic Qualifier or the tie-breakers from their conference, please add them.

(IN FOR SURE) (OUT)

Big Sky
EWU (9-2, 8 DI wins)...should get AQ with win @PSU due to H2H win over MSU
MSU (8-3, 7 DI wins)...@UM
UM (7-4, 6 DI wins)...vs MSU
NAU (7-4, 6 DI wins)...vs SUU
Cal Poly (6-5, 6 DI wins)...@San Diego (prob already out with 5 losses)
ISU (7-4, only 5 DI wins)...vs WSU (can't get to 7 DI wins = OUT)
5 POSSIBLE TEAMS

Big South
Coastal Carolina (11-0, 11 DI wins)...vs Liberty for AQ
Liberty (7-4, 6 DI wins)...@Coastal Carolina for AQ
Charleston Southern (8-3, 6 DI wins)...@Georgia (barring a miracle against Georgia = OUT)
2 POSSIBLE TEAMS

CAA
New Hampshire (9-1, 9 DI wins)...@Maine
Villanova (9-2, 9 DI wins)...@Delaware
James Madison (8-3, 8 DI wins)...vs Elon
Richmond (7-4, 7 DI wins)...@William & Mary
William & Mary (7-4, 7 DI wins)...vs Richmond
Delaware (6-5, 6 DI wins)...vs Villanova (IMO already out with 5 losses but can still reach 7 wins)
6 POSSIBLE TEAMS

MEAC
NC A&T (9-2, 8 DI wins)...@NC Central for AQ
Bethune-Cookman (8-3, 7 DI wins)...vs Florida A&M
SC State (7-4, 6 DI wins)...vs Norfolk State (still could win AQ)
3 POSSIBLE TEAMS

MVFC
North Dakota State (10-1, 10 DI wins)...vs Youngstown State
Illinois State (9-1, 9 DI wins)...vs Southern Illinois
Northern Iowa (7-4, 7 DI wins)...vs Missouri State
Indiana State (7-4, 7 DI wins)...@Western Illinois
Youngstown State (7-4, 7 DI wins)...@North Dakota State
South Dakota State (7-4, 6 DI wins)...vs South Dakota
6 POSSIBLE TEAMS

NEC
Sacred Heart (9-2, 8 DI wins)...AQ
Bryant (8-2, 7 DI wins)...vs Wagner
2 POSSIBLE TEAMS

OVC
Jacksonville State (9-1, 8 DI wins)...@SE Missouri State; AQ
Eastern Kentucky (9-2, 9 DI wins)...@Florida
2 POSSIBLE TEAMS

Patriot League
Fordham (10-1, 10 DI wins)...@Army; AQ
Bucknell (8-2, 8 DI wins)...vs Colgate
2 POSSIBLE TEAMS

Pioneer League
**Jacksonville withdrew eligibility
San Diego (9-1, 8 DI wins)...vs Cal Poly; AQ
Dayton (7-3, 7 DI wins)...vs Campbell
2 POSSIBLE TEAMS

SOCON
Chattanooga (8-3, 8 DI wins)...@Furman; AQ
Samford (7-3, 5 DI wins)...@Auburn (can't reach 7 DI wins = OUT)
Western Carolina (7-4, 5 DI wins)...@Alabama (can't reach 7 DI wins = OUT)
ONLY 1 POSSIBLE TEAM

Southland
Southeastern Louisiana (8-3, 8 DI wins)...@Nicholls State
Sam Houston State (7-4, 7 DI wins but lost to a DII)...vs Central Arkansas
Stephen F. Austin (7-4, 6 DI wins)...vs Northwestern State
Central Arkansas (6-5, 6 DI wins)...@Sam Houston State (prob already out with 5 losses)
Northwestern State (6-5, 6 DI wins)...@ SF Austin (prob already out with 5 losses)
McNeese State (6-4, 5 DI wins)...vs Lamar (can't reach 7 DI wins = OUT)
Lamar (7-4, 5 DI wins)...@McNeese State (can't reach 7 DI wins = OUT)
5 POSSIBLE TEAMS

That's 36 possible teams that could reach the 7 win recommendation. And Cal Poly, Delaware, Central Arkansas, and Northwestern State are probably already out with 5 losses.

[93henfan]

In a 12-game season, you really need 8 d-1 wins. If you only have 7, you need at least three marquee wins over ranked teams on your résumé to be in the conversation.

Looking at your list, for instance, if Delaware were to beat Nova (not happening, but this is hypothetical), UD would be 7-5 with 7 d-1 wins and marquee wins over JMU and Nova. IMHO, that is still not a playoff resume.

You can almost throw 7 win teams out of the at-large discussion.

[DoubleNicks]

I think there will be more than one team that gets an at-large with only 7 DI wins. Now which ones, I don't know and didn't want to get into specifics of SOS after the records were equal, so I just listed them all to give us a starting point.

For example, in the Big Sky if Montana beats MSU in WaGriz next week, the Big Sky would only get EWU and no at-larges? Surely they get at least another team in with 7 DI wins in that scenario...

[DoubleNicks]

But I do agree with you that 7 DI wins is not a guarantee to get an at-large this year, but enough to get you consideration.

[kalm]

In a 12-game season, you really need 8 d-1 wins. If you only have 7, you need at least three marquee wins over ranked teams on your résumé to be in the conversation.

Looking at your list, for instance, if Delaware were to beat Nova (not happening, but this is hypothetical), UD would be 7-5 with 7 d-1 wins and marquee wins over JMU and Nova. IMHO, that is still not a playoff resume.

You can almost throw 7 win teams out of the at-large discussion.

Unless you have Bucknell, Bethune Cookman, and Bryant in you're going to have a tough time filling a field under those criteria this year.

[The Kicker]

Thanks for the list. It's that time of the year to start thinking of who is in and who is not. At least now the list isn't 50+ teams long.

As of now I'm thinking. BSC, CAA, and MVFC could all get 4 in.

[kalm]

Thanks for the list. It's that time of the year to start thinking of who is in and who is not. At least now the list isn't 50+ teams long.

As of now I'm thinking. BSC, CAA, and MVFC could all get 4 in.

I think the BSC and CAA get at least 3 with EKU and SLU in. That leaves one wildcard spot going to either Bucknell, Bryant, Bethune-Cookman or another BSC, CAA or 5th Valley team.

[The Kicker]

My power ranking of who could/should make it.
#1 New Hampshire (CAA 1 AQ)
#2 North Dakota State (MVFC 1 AQ)
#3 Coastal Carolina (Big South 1 AQ)
#4 Eastern Washington (BSC 1 AQ)
#5 Villanova (CAA 2 AL)
#6 Illinois State (MVFC 2 AL)
#7 Jacksonville State (OVC 1 AQ)
#8 James Madison (CAA 3 AL)
#9 Northern Iowa (MVFC 3 AL)
#10 Southeastern Louisiana (Southland 1 AL)
#11 Montana (BSC 2 AL)
#12 Montana State (BSC 3 AL)
#13 Chattanooga (Socon 1 AQ)
#14 W&M or Rich (CAA 4 AL)
#15 Indiana State (MVFC 4 AL)
#16 Eastern Kentucky (OVC 2 AL)
#17 Sam Houston St (Southland 2 AQ)
#18 South Dakota State (MVFC 5 AL)
#19 NAU (BSC 4 AL)
#20 Stephen F. Autin (Southland 3 AL)
#21 Sacred Heart (NEC 1 AQ)
#22 Fordham (Patriot 1 AQ)
#23 NC A&T (MEAC 1 AQ)
#24 San Diego (Pioneer 1 AQ)

Montana out if they lose
Liberty makes it if they win
Bryant, Bucknell, and BC get in if any AL fall this week
A Central Arkansas win would drop Sam Houston also.

[dal4018]

I posted this on eGriz last night. It's mainly just a listing of the potential teams that could reach 7 Division I wins without comparing SOS, quality wins, bad losses, etc. If anyone has insight on the Automatic Qualifier or the tie-breakers from their conference, please add them.

(IN FOR SURE) (OUT)

Big Sky
EWU (9-2, 8 DI wins)...should get AQ with win @PSU due to H2H win over MSU
MSU (8-3, 7 DI wins)...@UM
UM (7-4, 6 DI wins)...vs MSU
NAU (7-4, 6 DI wins)...vs SUU
Cal Poly (6-5, 6 DI wins)...@San Diego (prob already out with 5 losses)
ISU (7-4, only 5 DI wins)...vs WSU (can't get to 7 DI wins = OUT)
5 POSSIBLE TEAMS

Big South
Coastal Carolina (11-0, 11 DI wins)...vs Liberty for AQ
Liberty (7-4, 6 DI wins)...@Coastal Carolina for AQ
Charleston Southern (8-3, 6 DI wins)...@Georgia (barring a miracle against Georgia = OUT)
2 POSSIBLE TEAMS

CAA
New Hampshire (9-1, 9 DI wins)...@Maine
Villanova (9-2, 9 DI wins)...@Delaware
James Madison (8-3, 8 DI wins)...vs Elon
Richmond (7-4, 7 DI wins)...@William & Mary
William & Mary (7-4, 7 DI wins)...vs Richmond
Delaware (6-5, 6 DI wins)...vs Villanova (IMO already out with 5 losses but can still reach 7 wins)
6 POSSIBLE TEAMS

MEAC
NC A&T (9-2, 8 DI wins)...@NC Central for AQ
Bethune-Cookman (8-3, 7 DI wins)...vs Florida A&M
SC State (7-4, 6 DI wins)...vs Norfolk State (still could win AQ)
3 POSSIBLE TEAMS

MVFC
North Dakota State (10-1, 10 DI wins)...vs Youngstown State
Illinois State (9-1, 9 DI wins)...vs Southern Illinois
Northern Iowa (7-4, 7 DI wins)...vs Missouri State
Indiana State (7-4, 7 DI wins)...@Western Illinois
Youngstown State (7-4, 7 DI wins)...@North Dakota State
South Dakota State (7-4, 6 DI wins)...vs South Dakota
6 POSSIBLE TEAMS

NEC
Sacred Heart (9-2, 8 DI wins)...AQ
Bryant (8-2, 7 DI wins)...vs Wagner
2 POSSIBLE TEAMS

OVC
Jacksonville State (9-1, 8 DI wins)...@SE Missouri State; AQ
Eastern Kentucky (9-2, 9 DI wins)...@Florida
2 POSSIBLE TEAMS

Patriot League
Fordham (10-1, 10 DI wins)...@Army; AQ
Bucknell (8-2, 8 DI wins)...vs Colgate
2 POSSIBLE TEAMS

Pioneer League
**Jacksonville withdrew eligibility
San Diego (9-1, 8 DI wins)...vs Cal Poly; AQ
Dayton (7-3, 7 DI wins)...vs Campbell
2 POSSIBLE TEAMS

SOCON
Chattanooga (8-3, 8 DI wins)...@Furman; AQ
Samford (7-3, 5 DI wins)...@Auburn (can't reach 7 DI wins = OUT)
Western Carolina (7-4, 5 DI wins)...@Alabama (can't reach 7 DI wins = OUT)
ONLY 1 POSSIBLE TEAM

Southland
Southeastern Louisiana (8-3, 8 DI wins)...@Nicholls State
Sam Houston State (7-4, 7 DI wins but lost to a DII)...vs Central Arkansas
Stephen F. Austin (7-4, 6 DI wins)...vs Northwestern State
Central Arkansas (6-5, 6 DI wins)...@Sam Houston State (prob already out with 5 losses)
Northwestern State (6-5, 6 DI wins)...@ SF Austin (prob already out with 5 losses)
McNeese State (6-4, 5 DI wins)...vs Lamar (can't reach 7 DI wins = OUT)
Lamar (7-4, 5 DI wins)...@McNeese State (can't reach 7 DI wins = OUT)
5 POSSIBLE TEAMS

That's 36 possible teams that could reach the 7 win recommendation. And Cal Poly, Delaware, Central Arkansas, and Northwestern State are probably already out with 5 losses.

South Carolina St might have to wait until next yr after losing to Morgan St 24-21!!!!!!

[Robsnotes4u]

In a 12-game season, you really need 8 d-1 wins. If you only have 7, you need at least three marquee wins over ranked teams on your résumé to be in the conversation.

Looking at your list, for instance, if Delaware were to beat Nova (not happening, but this is hypothetical), UD would be 7-5 with 7 d-1 wins and marquee wins over JMU and Nova. IMHO, that is still not a playoff resume.

You can almost throw 7 win teams out of the at-large discussion.

I am totally with you

[Robsnotes4u]

Thanks for the list. It's that time of the year to start thinking of who is in and who is not. At least now the list isn't 50+ teams long.

As of now I'm thinking. BSC, CAA, and MVFC could all get 4 in.

BSC 4?

[Grizalltheway]

In a 12-game season, you really need 8 d-1 wins. If you only have 7, you need at least three marquee wins over ranked teams on your résumé to be in the conversation.

Looking at your list, for instance, if Delaware were to beat Nova (not happening, but this is hypothetical), UD would be 7-5 with 7 d-1 wins and marquee wins over JMU and Nova. IMHO, that is still not a playoff resume.

You can almost throw 7 win teams out of the at-large discussion.

That's funny, because the Griz will almost certainly get in with a win over MSU.

[dal4018]

In a 12-game season, you really need 8 d-1 wins. If you only have 7, you need at least three marquee wins over ranked teams on your résumé to be in the conversation.

Looking at your list, for instance, if Delaware were to beat Nova (not happening, but this is hypothetical), UD would be 7-5 with 7 d-1 wins and marquee wins over JMU and Nova. IMHO, that is still not a playoff resume.

You can almost throw 7 win teams out of the at-large discussion.

Unless you have Bucknell, Bethune Cookman, and Bryant in you're going to have a tough time filling a field under those criteria this year.

Bethune Cookman might not get in due to loss at Hampton.

[Gil Dobie]

Thanks for the list. It's that time of the year to start thinking of who is in and who is not. At least now the list isn't 50+ teams long.

As of now I'm thinking. BSC, CAA, and MVFC could all get 4 in.

BSC 4?

Montana wins, then 3 BSC, Montana Loses maybe 3.
MVFC could get 5 with possibly 6 teams with 8 wins.

[Gil Dobie]

Fargo Sports writter Dom Izzo's bracket.

[kalm]

Fargo Sports writter Dom Izzo's bracket.

JSU should be seeded ahead of CCU. And Eastern ahead of both.

[93henfan]

Will suck to be the seeds that get UNI and JMU in their first game.

[kalm]

Will suck to be the seeds that get UNI and JMU in their first game.

Or SDSU and ISUr

[Sapper]

According to the AD at Idaho State he also sits on the selection committee the 7 D1 wins was only for a 18 team playoff. Now that there is a 24 team it is 6 D1 wins.

[MTfan4life]

Fargo Sports writter Dom Izzo's bracket.

If Montana State makes it, there's no way they don't host that first round game.

And I missed it but there's Montana going on the road for a first round game too.

[grizband]

If the Griz are sent on the road,I can't imagine they would play at JMU in the first round

[Gil Dobie]

If the Griz are sent on the road,I can't imagine they would play at JMU in the first round

I can see JMU going to Montana.

[tribe_pride]

For perspective, last year, which was the first year of 24 teams, at larges had the following records and D-I wins in a 12 game season:
Montana - 10-2 (9 D-I wins)
NAU - 9-2 (9 D-I wins)
SUU - 8-4 (7 D-I wins and an FBS win)
UNH - 7-4 (7 D-I wins)
Towson - 10-2 (10 D-I wins and an FBS win)
SC State - 9-3 (8 D-I wins)
SDSU - 8-4 (8 D-I wins)
Jax St. - 9-3 (8 D-I wins/FBS win if you count Ga. State)
Tenn St. - 9-3 (8 D-I wins)
Fordham - 11-1 (11 D-I wins and an FBS win)
Samford - 8-4 (8 D-I wins/FBS win if you count Ga. State)
McNeese St. - 10-2 (9 D-I wins and an FBS win)
SHSU - 8-4 (8 D-I wins)

Just looking at the only other data we have, last year only 2 teams had as few as 7 D-I wins (also in a 12 game season). One of them had an FBS win. The other was good enough to get to the semifinals and had won 6 of their final 7 games. Next year with an 11 game season, I can see more of a chance that 6 D-I games will be seriously reviewed but tougher in a 12 game season.

[Grizzlies1982]

Fargo Sports writter Dom Izzo's bracket.

JSU should be seeded ahead of CCU. And Eastern ahead of both.

Kalm, I won't argue who "SHOULD" be seeded where. Yet historically the committee handsomely rewards going through the season undefeated. If they hold to that precedent Coastal Carolina will be either a #1, 2, or 3 seed. Bank on it. Even with an easy schedule it is hard to stay perfect. On the other hand, if Coastal drops their game this weekend I won't be shocked if they are not among the eight seeded teams.

Note the Fargo writer's bracket also gives Coastal the easiest second round match up. A good team playing either Bryant or Bucknell is about as close to an automatic ticket into the quarter finals as a seeded team could expect. Though the writer's selections may prove accurate, the match ups they show are probably far from those the committee actually assigns.

[JayJ79]

According to the AD at Idaho State he also sits on the selection committee the 7 D1 wins was only for a 18 team playoff. Now that there is a 24 team it is 6 D1 wins.

that's what the minimum criteria has been changed to, yes. but in 12-game seasons like this, there will more than likely be enough 7 D1 win teams to preclude having to take a 6 D1 win team.

Though I could see them using that loophole to allow some team with a likely very high hosting bid to get in (as that means the NCAA gets more $$$). For instance, if a certain team that averages about 25K in attendance were to end up with only 6 D1 wins. Teams that average under 7K.... probably wouldn't get that benefit.