Last teams in

[89Hen]

It's all relative, and as someone stated before, this is only year 2 of the 20 team field. You only have one year of history to go by. It is extremely possible that a 6 win team goes this year.

That's very unlikely. The field was rather weak last year and there were still 28 eligible teams with 7 DI wins.

I agree it's unlikely but the field WILL be even weaker this year. This is the most average year I can recall for I-AA. Once you get past 5-6 teams there's not much left.

[89Hen]

Wofford got 'dinked' in 2004 at 8-3.

They wouldn't have in a 20 team field.

[ODUalum11]

Wofford got 'dinked' in 2004 at 8-3.

They wouldn't have in a 20 team field.

How often has that happened that an 8-3 team was left out of the playoffs? I'm guessing not very often.

[CAA Flagship]

They wouldn't have in a 20 team field.

How often has that happened that an 8-3 team was left out of the playoffs? I'm guessing not very often.

I know a team that was left out in 2009 with a 9-2 (7-2 DI) record and in 2010 with an 8-3 (8-3 DI) record.

[CatMom]

How often has that happened that an 8-3 team was left out of the playoffs? I'm guessing not very often.

I know a team that was left out in 2009 with a 9-2 (7-2 DI) record and in 2010 with an 8-3 (8-3 DI) record.

I believe the inference was for eligible teams

[CAA Flagship]

I know a team that was left out in 2009 with a 9-2 (7-2 DI) record and in 2010 with an 8-3 (8-3 DI) record.

I believe the inference was for eligible teams

Old Dominion WAS eligible from day one.
Weak schedule.

[89Hen]

They wouldn't have in a 20 team field.

How often has that happened that an 8-3 team was left out of the playoffs? I'm guessing not very often.

Off the top of my head...

Villanova and URI in 2001. YSU was also left out at 8-3 that year, but had two D2 wins.

Cal Poly at 9-2 in 2004 with five games against teams from auto bid conferences.

8-3 MEAC teams are left out all the time (FAMU was 8-3 the past two years).

[SumItUp]

Except the 7-Div. I win rule IS in their book

It's not a rule at all. When you say something may happen, it's a guideline or a warning, not a rule.

Agreed, 7 D-1 wins is not a requirement, but until the selection committee selects a 6 D-1 win team, it can be treated as such. If and when the playoffs expand to 24, there will probably be a 6 D-1 win team in the bracket. I don't think we will see a 6 D-1 win team in the playoffs this year.

[89Hen]

It's not a rule at all. When you say something may happen, it's a guideline or a warning, not a rule.

Agreed, 7 D-1 wins is not a requirement, but until the selection committee selects a 6 D-1 win team, it can be treated as such. If and when the playoffs expand to 24, there will probably be a 6 D-1 win team in the bracket. I don't think we will see a 6 D-1 win team in the playoffs this year.

Damn I wish you still did your summary of teams. I'd like to try to predict the rest of the season and see how many (and which) teams will get to 7. Can you work on that for me?

[mcveyrl]

I couldn't get copy and paste to work, but here's a start...look at post #59.

http://boards.caazone.com/showthread.ph ... ost1607369" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[93henfan]

I couldn't get copy and paste to work, but here's a start...look at post #59.

http://boards.caazone.com/showthread.ph ... ost1607369" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Again, saying UD and W&M are "eliminated" based on a rule that doesn't exist is a tad premature. I know it makes BDKJMU feel good about himself to type that, but it may not be the reality of the extremely weak 2011 FCS field with a 20-team playoff.

I still believe a 7-4 (6 D-I win) UD team, ranked in the top 15 (possibly top 10), slips in by a cunt hair. How could the committee possibly take its playoff seriously leaving out a top 10 (or very low teens at worst) team?

[89Hen]

This helps. Let's see if I can do this easily...

7+ wins
NDSU 8-0
Sam Houston St 8-0
Maine 7-1
Lehigh 7-1
Montana 7-2
Montana St 8-1
ODU 7-2
Georgetown 7-2

Will get to 7+
UNH 6-2
Towson 6-2
UNI 6-2
Illinois St 6-3
Albany 6-2
App St 6-2
GA Southern 7-1
Wofford 5-3
Norfolk St 7-2
Hampton 5-3
Morgan St 5-3
Liberty 6-3
Cal Poly 5-3
Jacksonville St 5-3
Tennessee Tech 5-2

Aren't gonna get to 7
JMU 5-3
Indiana St 5-3
Youngstown St 5-3
Eastern KY 5-3
Furman 5-3
Citadel 4-4
Samford 5-3
Central Arkansas 6-3

Irrelevant
Duquesne 7-2
Sacred Heart 5-3
Jacksonville 6-2
Southern Utah 5-4
SC State 5-4
Bucknell 5-4
Dayton 6-3
Drake 7-2
Stony Brook 5-3
Bethune Cookman 5-3
Florida A&M 5-3
Monmouth 4-4
Murray St 4-4
Tennessee Martin 5-3
Holy Cross 4-4
Campbell 5-3
San Diego 6-2

That's basically 23 that might get to 7 and have some relevance. But no way does MEAC get three, so that's 22... and that's assuming two MEAC, two OVC, two PL... I'm not sure that's gonna happen. I'm telling you, we are going to have at least one absolute dog or shocker in the field.

[mcveyrl]

I couldn't get copy and paste to work, but here's a start...look at post #59.

http://boards.caazone.com/showthread.ph ... ost1607369" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Again, saying UD and W&M are "eliminated" based on a rule that doesn't exist is a tad premature. I know it makes BDKJMU feel good about himself to type that, but it may not be the reality of the extremely weak 2011 FCS field with a 20-team playoff.

I still believe a 7-4 (6 D-I win) UD team, ranked in the top 15 (possibly top 10), slips in by a kitty hair. How could the committee possibly take its playoff seriously leaving out a top 10 (or very low teens at worst) team?

Well, that's part of the reason I said it's a start (also doesn't have remaining schedule). It obviously leaves out possible six win teams. Are there any other six win teams to consider besides UD? If not, just throw them in the mix and see where it shakes out. There are obviously, to me anyway, teams on that list they would be selected ahead of.

I think it's hard to tell exactly how the committee looks at the polls. Last year Montana was 15 and left out and there were several teams below them (granted, all from "major" conferences) that got in, including No. 25. Presumably Delaware will be higher than that, but I don't know if it matters.

[mcveyrl]

Aren't gonna get to 7
JMU 5-3

I asked this on another thread. Who gets in first, a 6 win UD or a 6 win JMU? Assuming UD wins out and assuming JMU only beats URI (big assumptions all the way around), we would be 4-3 against common opponents. JMU has the tougher strength of schedule, but more losses.

EDIT: UD has the better conference record and probably the better SOS in conference.

By the way, I agree with your earlier assessment. It's kind of sad that we're having this discussion for a playoff system, but we both know that once you get in, you gotta chance!

[93henfan]

Again, saying UD and W&M are "eliminated" based on a rule that doesn't exist is a tad premature. I know it makes BDKJMU feel good about himself to type that, but it may not be the reality of the extremely weak 2011 FCS field with a 20-team playoff.

I still believe a 7-4 (6 D-I win) UD team, ranked in the top 15 (possibly top 10), slips in by a kitty hair. How could the committee possibly take its playoff seriously leaving out a top 10 (or very low teens at worst) team?

Well, that's part of the reason I said it's a start (also doesn't have remaining schedule). It obviously leaves out possible six win teams. Are there any other six win teams to consider besides UD? If not, just throw them in the mix and see where it shakes out. There are obviously, to me anyway, teams on that list they would be selected ahead of.

I think it's hard to tell exactly how the committee looks at the polls. Last year Montana was 15 and left out and there were several teams below them (granted, all from "major" conferences) that got in, including No. 25. Presumably Delaware will be higher than that, but I don't know if it matters.

Didn't Montana tank at the end of the season, losing two out of three? I believe the committee may have counted the late season trend against them.

Again, this point is moot if UD doesn't end the season with three wins, and they've been maddeningly inconsistent all year.

[ODUalum11]

This helps. Let's see if I can do this easily...

That's basically 23 that might get to 7 and have some relevance. But no way does MEAC get three, so that's 22... and that's assuming two MEAC, two OVC, two PL... I'm not sure that's gonna happen. I'm telling you, we are going to have at least one absolute dog or shocker in the field.

I agree, no way the MEAC gets three...they probably won't even get two. I might see them getting two if Norfolk State doesn't win the league. Also I know Georgetown is at 7 wins but would they really get an at-large if they don't win the Patriot League? They lost to an Ivy League team and lost to Bucknelll...Also JMU can't reach 7 wins? They didn't play a D2 team and they have three remaining games. I put them in my own category..."can get to 7 wins". Also noticed Cal Poly would have to win out in order to get to 7 D-1 wins. I don't think they get in.

[BDKJMU]

I couldn't get copy and paste to work, but here's a start...look at post #59.

http://boards.caazone.com/showthread.ph ... ost1607369" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

Again, saying UD and W&M are "eliminated" based on a rule that doesn't exist is a tad premature. I know it makes BDKJMU feel good about himself to type that, but it may not be the reality of the extremely weak 2011 FCS field with a 20-team playoff.

I still believe a 7-4 (6 D-I win) UD team, ranked in the top 15 (possibly top 10), slips in by a kitty hair. How could the committee possibly take its playoff seriously leaving out a top 10 (or very low teens at worst) team?

1st of all if you scroll up you'll see I didn't start that chart, another JMU poster BRCC did. I was just the 3rd person on that thread to tweak it.

The committee doesn't pick the playoff field by some worthless media or Coaches (ahem SID) polls, with most voters clueless to semi clueless about 3/4 of the teams they are voting on. The polls are irrelevant.

[89Hen]

I agree, no way the MEAC gets three...they probably won't even get two. I might see them getting two if Norfolk State doesn't win the league. Also I know Georgetown is at 7 wins but would they really get an at-large if they don't win the Patriot League? They lost to an Ivy League team and lost to Bucknelll...Also JMU can't reach 7 wins? They didn't play a D2 team and they have three remaining games. I put them in my own category..."can get to 7 wins". Also noticed Cal Poly would have to win out in order to get to 7 D-1 wins. I don't think they get in.

It wasn't a "can't" for JMU, it was a "won't"... IMHO. I do think CalPoly wins out to get there.

As for G'town, I've had a change of heart. Any other PL team and I don't think they get in with that resume. IMO the name GEORGETOWN may just get them in. The Committee has been fairly consistent of putting in teams that they think will help the draw. New teams from areas that didn't have much I-AA exposure, or teams that draw well. Georgetown is easily one of the bigger school names in I-AA. Throw in the DC market, that Maryland sucks right now, a first time playoff participant. I think they may very well be the wild card that I was talking about. Of course they could just go ahead and beat Lehigh and make it easy on the Committee.

[Aho Old Guy]

I wouldn't spend a half second using NCAA's SOS ranking. Guess who's #1?

Lafayette!!!!!!

Power to the 'Pards!
It's simply initial data that (I assume) the Committee uses as a starting point for examination, manipulation and cross-tabulation.

They wouldn't have in a 20 team field.

How often has that happened that an 8-3 team was left out of the playoffs? I'm guessing not very often.

Liberty was 8-3 last year with an FBS win, and all DI schedule -- didn't make it presumably based upon SoS.

Win out and you are in - losing to W&M gives the Committee an excuse to leave you at home for the playoffs.

I suspect 'body of work' is weighted slightly more heavily than 'head-to-head' because the win-loss record is “scrutinized to determine a team’s strength in schedule." Also remember that the 'rumors' are FBS losses are minimized, effectively (theoretically in this case) making JMU 7-3 ....

with games against both Maine and UNH - something not on your resume.

If you can't (don't!) beat W&M, pull for Maine and UNH to lose out! (just an example Bears & 'Cats don't shoot the messenger!)

If ODU is 8-3/5-3 they are in.
Anyone else from the CAA that is 7 Div I wins, 7-4/5-3, they'll be in (except ineligible UMass of course). Take that to the bank.

Not without beating W&M Here's why ...



One of the ODU guys said they didn't think their OoC was so bad when compared to others. If by that he meant, "Worst OoC schedule in the CAA" then, I agree.

It gets more interesting when you examine the cumulative opposition records. ODU overall to date does not look that bad when compared to their conference brethren until those weak ODU OoC W-Ls are subtracted from the totals. They again fall to the bottom of the list of the playoff contenders in the CAA, as they do when you look at ONLY the intra-conference records of their CAA opposition.



Projected CAA opposition 'In Conference' records overall: Bottom of the CAA playoff contenders. Signature wins: 'only' JMU. If JMU goes in the tank the rest of the year it will certainly take the shine off that apple.

That's why I think they need to beat W&M. They get a second quality win, knock W&M out of the playoffs, and offset/equalize their loss to Delaware (who has 3 quality wins).

The non-DI may be an issue for Delaware BUT I believe their stronger conference schedule, their 3 quality wins, and their head-to-head over ODU clinch it for them. You're welcome, Hens. Don't expect my help, again!

What the CAA best look out for is both UD & ODU getting dumped in favor of 4 teams from the MVC, and/or additional second teams from the OVC, SL, MEAC or others -- that would be the greasy way out by the Committee. From a SoS standpoint I don't see it (EXCEPT in the case of ODU if they do not beat W&M !!).

[CAA Flagship]

One of the ODU guys said they didn't think their OoC was so bad when compared to others. If by that he meant, "Worst OoC schedule in the CAA" then, I agree.

That was me. Here is what I said:

You have been hammering ODU's OOC schedule but I don't think it is all that bad. It's certainly not good, but it is not bad compared to many power conference schools. There are only maybe 7-9 teams that have a stronger overall schedule strength that are not benefitting from having played a I-A. The ones that did play a I-A lost. If the committee throws out the I-A games (unless they win), I don't see our OOC schedule as bad as you portray it.

I think the Committee will throw out the 1-A's because they are all losses. You can't get "credit" for scheduling a 1-A and losing. Heck, anyone can do that. After that, then look at SOS. And remember the season is not over. Hampton will win 2 more, maybe 3. Campbell will win 2 more, then they play GaSt.
BTW, UMass could look like a quality win when it's all said and done. They could finish 3-0 and end up at 8-3.

[BDKJMU]

One of the ODU guys said they didn't think their OoC was so bad when compared to others. If by that he meant, "Worst OoC schedule in the CAA" then, I agree.

That was me. Here is what I said:

You have been hammering ODU's OOC schedule but I don't think it is all that bad. It's certainly not good, but it is not bad compared to many power conference schools. There are only maybe 7-9 teams that have a stronger overall schedule strength that are not benefitting from having played a I-A. The ones that did play a I-A lost. If the committee throws out the I-A games (unless they win), I don't see our OOC schedule as bad as you portray it.

I think the Committee will throw out the 1-A's because they are all losses. You can't get "credit" for scheduling a 1-A and losing. Heck, anyone can do that. After that, then look at SOS. And remember the season is not over. Hampton will win 2 more, maybe 3. Campbell will win 2 more, then they play GaSt.
BTW, UMass could look like a quality win when it's all said and done. They could finish 3-0 and end up at 8-3.

Or JMU could- I know, wishful thinking. But if I were an ODU fan, I would be rooting for UMass & JMU, who are both "favored" to go 1-1 their next 2 games, to both win the next 2 games JMU has @ UNH & home URI. UMass home Nova and @ Maine. When JMU UMass then play each other on the last week, it won't matter as far as ODU is concerned.

[GannonFan]

One of the ODU guys said they didn't think their OoC was so bad when compared to others. If by that he meant, "Worst OoC schedule in the CAA" then, I agree.

That was me. Here is what I said:

You have been hammering ODU's OOC schedule but I don't think it is all that bad. It's certainly not good, but it is not bad compared to many power conference schools. There are only maybe 7-9 teams that have a stronger overall schedule strength that are not benefitting from having played a I-A. The ones that did play a I-A lost. If the committee throws out the I-A games (unless they win), I don't see our OOC schedule as bad as you portray it.

I think the Committee will throw out the 1-A's because they are all losses. You can't get "credit" for scheduling a 1-A and losing. Heck, anyone can do that. After that, then look at SOS. And remember the season is not over. Hampton will win 2 more, maybe 3. Campbell will win 2 more, then they play GaSt.
BTW, UMass could look like a quality win when it's all said and done. They could finish 3-0 and end up at 8-3.

Dude, really? That's how you're trying to argue out SOS, by not counting one team's hardest game and then comparing SOS? It doesn't matter if the FBS game is a loss, when you evaluate SOS you don't look at only your wins, you look at the whole schedule. There's no getting around the fact that ODU's SOS, especially considering they don't even play Maine and UNH in conference, is weak. Don't fret it, though, ODU is a mortal lock for the playoffs at 8-3. Win another game and you're in for certain. Lose 'em both and you're probably still in, but I would be a little nervous.

[Aho Old Guy]

One thing I've noticed today in perusing the internets is that if both Jackson State and Alabama State win out, ASU goes to the title game, and Jackson State would (conceivably) stay home with a 10-1 record, only one non-DI on their schedule, and Top-20 rankings in the TSN and Coaches polls.

Are we going to welcome the SWAC to the party this year (if it all plays out) ??

(1) - SWAC - (Jackson State)

(2) - Big Sky Conference - (MSU, UM)
(1) - Big South Conference - (Liberty)
(4) - Colonial Athletic Association - (Maine, UNH, TU, JMU)
(1) - Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference - (DSU/MSU ?)
(3) - Missouri Valley Football Conference - (NDSU, UNI, YSU/InST/IlST)
(1) - Northeast Conference - (Albany)
(1) - Ohio Valley Conference - (TTU, EKU, JSU ??)
(1) - Patriot League - (Lehigh)
(3) - Southern Conference - (GSSU, WU, ASU)
(1) - Southland Conference - (SHSU)
(19)

So for the final slot ODU/UD may be up against the MVC #4, OVC #2, SL#2, or SoCon#4 (if FU/Samford win out excepting FBS)

Is the fix in for the SWAC this year ??

[BDKJMU]

One thing I've noticed today in perusing the internets is that if both Jackson State and Alabama State win out, ASU goes to the title game, and Jackson State would (conceivably) stay home with a 10-1 record, only one non-DI on their schedule, and Top-20 rankings in the TSN and Coaches polls.

Are we going to welcome the SWAC to the party this year (if it all plays out) ??

(1) - SWAC - (Jackson State)

(2) - Big Sky Conference - (MSU, UM)
(1) - Big South Conference - (Liberty)
(4) - Colonial Athletic Association - (Maine, UNH, TU, JMU)
(1) - Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference - (DSU/MSU ?)
(3) - Missouri Valley Football Conference - (NDSU, UNI, YSU/InST/IlST)
(1) - Northeast Conference - (Albany)
(1) - Ohio Valley Conference - (TTU, EKU, JSU ??)
(1) - Patriot League - (Lehigh)
(3) - Southern Conference - (GSSU, WU, ASU)
(1) - Southland Conference - (SHSU)
(19)

So for the final slot ODU/UD may be up against the MVC #4, OVC #2, SL#2, or SoCon#4 (if FU/Samford win out excepting FBS)

Is the fix in for the SWAC this year ??

JSU is ineligible- APR:
viewtopic.php?f=4&t=27124" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

[Aho Old Guy]

Thanks -- I think I need to update my APR page ... all I got for JS penalty summary is ...

Limited to awarding aid to 23.0 initial counters.
Limited to awarding aid to 61.0 overall counters.
Limited to awarding the equivalency value of 48.65
financial aid awards.
Limited to 5.0 days as well as 16.0 hours of
countable activity per week.

..nothing on playoff ban.