mcveyrl wrote:green&gold75 wrote:
Bigger question is, how many student butts will be in those seats in the 4th qtr. JMU students will be back to their tailgates. W&M students......back to the library.
This. It's great we've got 25K at the home opener and 8K of those are students...but if only 3K of the students stay, we're down 20% in the fourth quarter, EVEN in a close game. That, in the words of the immortal Chuckie Barkley, is turrrible. Oh, and I know I'm the one that posted about selling out homecoming and family weekend, but I'm worried the fourth quarter attendance will be atrocious at those games...
8k students won't make it into the stadium (too many drunks, esp if tailgating/partying all day before a 6 PM game). Tickets sold versus butts in seats is two totally different things.....
If JMU sells 25k tickets, then won't have 25k butts in seats. Typically at most schools are probably about 10-20% no shows in good weather, much higher in worse weather (keeping fingers crossed rain holds off (currently calling for 30% chance).
-You have season ticket holders who know well ahead of time that they won't be making a certain game and yet don't turn in their unused tickets (I never do).
-You have people (be they single game or season ticket holders) who have something come up last min game week with work or family and can't make it.
-You have the more social types who are less interested in the games & more interested in socializing at the tailgates but also have tickets who never make it in to the games.
-You have people who plan on making it in to the games who end up getting too drunk and never making it (esp students)
To get 25k butts in seats, or at least inside the stadium, JMU would need to sell about 30k tickets.....
This game on the one hand would have a lower % of no shows simply because the hype of the opener. On the other hand JMU has pulled out all the stops to be able to call this a sellout (ex, the 2 free tickets to season ticket holders that renewed by Dec 31st) and there will be a lot of unused tickets (heck, I have an extra myself). If the weather remains good with 25k tickets sold will have 20+k butts in seats. Close game most will stay, may slip to a little under 20k. There will be the pull of the post game fireworks and band. If its a blowout will have probably 10-15k in the 4th qtr...