EWU @ Montana

[Silenoz]

It looks like um had some lucky breaks against CP

We got a TD off a converted 3rd down on a roughing the passer. They got 2 TDs off a roughing the kicker and a BS call on 40 yard bomb. Luck favored Poly Saturday

[AZGrizFan]

Here's a little hint for you: The Griz secondary (as "suspect" as it is, which is a questionable assessment in its own right) won't be on an island, since the lack of an EWU running game will allow for LOTS of help....

Exactly. We will not see the speed of the Tennessee WR's again this year at the FCS level..

We know about as much about our secondary as NDSU does it's whole team. We've played an SEC team with world class receivers (where our secondary was grossly overmatched) and a predominantly running team where our secondary could cheat up into the box without fear of the "over-the-top" play for the most part.

I think "unknown" is a much better description than "suspect".

[cats2506]

I have to admit that I didn't see the CP game (CW = cant watch in eastern Montana) but looking at the highlights and the stats sheet, and given what we know about UM otherwise I think I am right on this one, It looks like um had some lucky breaks against CP and I think that the EWU matchup is a better one for EWU. I just dont see um scoring enough points to win this one. I thik EWU probably played flat last week and will be pumped up this week. they are a big play offense and will get enough dont to win. I do think it will be close and an interesting matchup. certainly more interesting than watching MSU beat up on the little sisters of the poor this week.

Yes. Holding them to 17 yards of total offense in the 4th quarter was a HUGE lucky break for us.

Dude, if you didn't see the game, don't try to analyze it from highlights or box score. CP did very little in the 2nd half and absolutely NOTHING in the 4th quarter. They got one break on a penalty (roughing the kicker) which they turned into 7 points and we got 1 break on a penalty (roughing the passer) which WE turned into 7 points. Griz made halftime adjustments that totally shut down the CP offense. This game wasn't as close as it appeared, as the Griz knelt in victory formation at the 4 yard line...

Now, you may be right about EWU, but I think you're seriously underestimating this Griz D if you think it's going to be some sort of a shootout.

they did do something in the 4th Q, an unforced fumble in you territory.

[AZGrizFan]

they did do something in the 4th Q, an unforced fumble in you territory.

I prefer to think of it as forced by the fact the center knew he was going to get his ASS handed to him and he panicked.

[JBB]

I’m picking EWU:

I have spent a few moments looking this game over. Its a good match-up, one EWU can win. Both appear to be pretty average teams. EWU is 0-2 with a huge loss to Dakota Big 3 member USD Coyotes. Montana is 1-1 with the win coming against Cal Poly, a team that barely got by St. Francis University last year.

Im not giving anything for home field advantage. EWU is now a road veteran of the Dakota Dome and has a good road record. NDSU fans are well aware of the weakness the Grizz are capable of at home. to me its a toss-up, no indisputable evidence to support a home field bump.

The only thing holding EWU back is the lack of a running game. Its a glaring deficiency. Im uncertain of the injury status of a couple starters on the front line. Its unlikely there is hope for a turnaround until they are back.

If there is going to be a rushing turnaround Saturday is good time to start, injured players or not. Montana is allowing almost 200 yds/game on the ground and a couple TDs. If the Eagles can muster even 100 yds or so on the ground it will probably be enough to put this one in their win column.

[AZGrizFan]

I’m picking EWU:

I have spent a few moments looking this game over. Its a good match-up, one EWU can win. Both appear to be pretty average teams. EWU is 0-2 with a huge loss to Dakota Big 3 member USD Coyotes. Montana is 1-1 with the win coming against Cal Poly, a team that barely got by St. Francis University last year.

Im not giving anything for home field advantage. EWU is now a road veteran of the Dakota Dome and has a good road record. NDSU fans are well aware of the weakness the Grizz are capable of at home. to me its a toss-up, no indisputable evidence to support a home field bump.

The only thing holding EWU back is the lack of a running game. Its a glaring deficiency. Im uncertain of the injury status of a couple starters on the front line. Its unlikely there is hope for a turnaround until they are back.

If there is going to be a rushing turnaround Saturday is good time to start, injured players or not. Montana is allowing almost 200 yds/game on the ground and a couple TDs. If the Eagles can muster even 100 yds or so on the ground it will probably be enough to put this one in their win column.

Ya think?

[Cap'n Cat]

Montana, 31-27

[AZGrizFan]

I’m picking EWU:

The only thing holding EWU back is the lack of a running game. Its a glaring deficiency. Im uncertain of the injury status of a couple starters on the front line. Its unlikely there is hope for a turnaround until they are back.

If there is going to be a rushing turnaround Saturday is good time to start, injured players or not. Montana is allowing almost 200 yds/game on the ground and a couple TDs. If the Eagles can muster even 100 yds or so on the ground it will probably be enough to put this one in their win column.

Montana has given up 393 yards rushing in 110 attempts (including 265 in 64 attempts by triple-option Cal Poly) for an average of 3.57/carry. We've faced an SEC team and a triple option team....stats don't mean SHIT. EWU has accomplished 50 yards rushing COMBINED in two games, averaging a hefty 1.36 yards per carry. The only way they get 100 yards is if a broken play results in a 75 yard carry for someone.

[Thundering Herd]

Montana by a touchdown in this one. Should be a very good game even with EWU's severe lack of a running game.

UM 28
EWU 21

[EWURanger]

I’m picking EWU:

The only thing holding EWU back is the lack of a running game. Its a glaring deficiency. Im uncertain of the injury status of a couple starters on the front line. Its unlikely there is hope for a turnaround until they are back.

If there is going to be a rushing turnaround Saturday is good time to start, injured players or not. Montana is allowing almost 200 yds/game on the ground and a couple TDs. If the Eagles can muster even 100 yds or so on the ground it will probably be enough to put this one in their win column.

Montana has given up 393 yards rushing in 110 attempts (including 265 in 64 attempts by triple-option Cal Poly) for an average of 3.57/carry. We've faced an SEC team and a triple option team....stats don't mean ****. EWU has accomplished 50 yards rushing COMBINED in two games, averaging a hefty 1.36 yards per carry. The only way they get 100 yards is if a broken play results in a 75 yard carry for someone.

I wont disagree with too much there but it's kinda curious that you bring up the fact that UM had played an SEC team in your stats analysis but fail to mention that we played a Pac-12 team. If you're going to use the FBS thing for a basis for reasoning then surely the fact that we faced a tough opponent in our opener should play some part in the analysis as well.

[AZGrizFan]

Montana has given up 393 yards rushing in 110 attempts (including 265 in 64 attempts by triple-option Cal Poly) for an average of 3.57/carry. We've faced an SEC team and a triple option team....stats don't mean ****. EWU has accomplished 50 yards rushing COMBINED in two games, averaging a hefty 1.36 yards per carry. The only way they get 100 yards is if a broken play results in a 75 yard carry for someone.

I wont disagree with too much there but it's kinda curious that you bring up the fact that UM had played an SEC team in your stats analysis but fail to mention that we played a Pac-12 team. If you're going to use the FBS thing for a basis for reasoning then surely the fact that we faced a tough opponent in our opener should play some part in the analysis as well.

Like I said earlier (or in a different thread), being unable to run against UW was explainable. Being unable to run against USD implies the problems go much deeper than some EWU fans are willing to admit. USD gave up 391 yards rushing against Air Force...a 6.4 YPC average...19 against EWU...an average of 0.6 YPC.

[JBB]

Montana has given up 393 yards rushing in 110 attempts (including 265 in 64 attempts by triple-option Cal Poly) for an average of 3.57/carry. We've faced an SEC team and a triple option team....stats don't mean ****. EWU has accomplished 50 yards rushing COMBINED in two games, averaging a hefty 1.36 yards per carry. The only way they get 100 yards is if a broken play results in a 75 yard carry for someone.

I wont disagree with too much there but it's kinda curious that you bring up the fact that UM had played an SEC team in your stats analysis but fail to mention that we played a Pac-12 team. If you're going to use the FBS thing for a basis for reasoning then surely the fact that we faced a tough opponent in our opener should play some part in the analysis as well.

I took the strength of schedule as even and made no adjustment. I agree with the ranger. Az analysis is not thoughtful.

Ps. I love it when people read stats but they dont know how to read them.

I see the rushing defense of Montana as a weakness. If EWU is going to turn around their dismal rushing numbers Montana is a good place to start.

Now with the news Brown has been suspended for the lack of sportsmanship last week at USD it becomes a little more problematic for the Eagles to do that. My predicition came before I knew of the susupension but it still holds that to win EWU is going to have to do a little better on the ground. Now its just a little more unlikely.

[mtgrizfan4life]

As much as I want to write off EWU, I can't write off the defending FCS champion. FCS champion or not, EWU always plays tough in Missoula. I expect another hard thought game. 1st half will be a war. GRIZ depth and pace allows the GRIZ to pull away in the 2nd half. GRIZ 38-EWU 31.

AS for how EWU will do. Anyone thinking they will fare well running the ball is crazy. Cal Poly is a running team. They hurt the GRIZ in the 1st half. In the 2nd half the GRIZ took care of that running game very well. GRIZ defense aside, it is not EWU's make up to be running team without Taiwan Jones. So, let me get this straight, EWU all the suddenly becomes a running a team? EWU which is not nearly as talented as Tennessee has a better team to do what Tennessee could not do? EWU goes away from it's strength in throwing the ball to big WR's, and not test Montana's weakest link on defense.

Honestly to GOD, if EWU does that, it would not make any sense whatsoever. EWU has a good coach, and good coaches do not game plan away from their team's strengths. EWU's strength is passing, Montana or not. Why would any coach be stupid enough to not play to his team's strength? This is me giving EWU's coaching staff credit, yet questioning those believing in EWU beating Montana with the run. A solid running game might occur, and will certainly help EWU's cause. To think they will fare better on the ground than Poly did, won't happen. Thinking EWU's running game will control this game, conventional wisdom, and X's and O's.....won't happen.

For EWU to beat Montana, they will have to take care of the ball, and beat Montana through the air. Meanwhile, game plan around not passing at TRU. Even Tennessee's much more talented QB and WR's did not attack Tru. Why? Because Tru is that damn good. EWU will have to attack Montana's safeties, and LB's in coverage. Tru will not get beat in Breske's scheme. Speaking of schemes, BLM better be prepared for blitzes all over the place. Montana put pressure on a more talented Tennessee team, and I have no doubts, they will attack EWU even more.

As for Montana, as a fan, I wish they could rely on the run more, but they are not a running team in this system. EWU will have to play their assignments well. Jordan Johnson takes care of the ball much better in this system our qbs did last year.

This game will be decided by a TD or less. I expect Montana to win. I will be surprised if either team wins this game by dominating on the ground. The team that runs best to support the pass, and takes care of the ball will be the winner.

[mlbowl]

I see the rushing defense of Montana as a weakness. If EWU is going to turn around their dismal rushing numbers Montana is a good place to start.

Oh JiBBerish...always good for a laugh!

[AZGrizFan]

Ps. I love it when people read stats but they dont know how to read them.

You're the poster child for that. Particularly if you think Montana's rushing defense is a "weakness".

[JBB]

One excellent post, two fools, and now another insightful post from one of the FCS experts.

I dont think EWU has to dominate on the ground. I think they have to be effective enough on the ground to be credible. If the Montana defense can sell out to the pass all night EWU will probably be 0-3, The exclusive passing attack hasnt been able to muster a win for them yet.

They need to run. They need to take some pressure off the pass. That will make it more effective, and it is so good, I think it will be effective enough to win.

Too bad about Brown, but if you cant be a sportsman you need to learn the lesson.

[AZGrizFan]

One excellent post, two fools, and now another insightful post from one of the FCS experts.

I dont think EWU has to dominate on the ground. I think they have to be effective enough on the ground to be credible. If the Montana defense can sell out to the pass all night EWU will probably be 0-3, The exclusive passing attack hasnt been able to muster a win for them yet.

They need to run. They need to take some pressure off the pass. That will make it more effective, and it is so good, I think it will be effective enough to win.

Too bad about Brown, but if you cant be a sportsman you need to learn the lesson.

The only guy on the planet who quotes himself.

And you wonder why we're all laughing AT you, and not WITH you?

[mlbowl]

And you wonder why we're all laughing AT you, and not WITH you?

JiBBerish is VERY entertaining.

[mtgrizfan4life]

http://www.egriz.com/grizboard/viewtopi ... =1&t=51731" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;



Sound familar to what I posted earlier?

[JBB]

Yea, I hear that. Sounds like what I was saying in the EWU/USD thread too. Those guys do a great job in the analysis.

[AZGrizFan]

Yea, I hear that. Sounds like what I was saying in the EWU/USD thread too. Those guys do a great job in the analysis.

Really? He's saying EWU "NEEDS" to develop a running game...you're predicting they WILL have one. Big difference.

[JBB]

No. Reading comprehension my friend, read, think post. I said in order to win EWU would have to generate about 100 yds rushing. I thought they could do that against Montana because Montana, I know they played the best teams in the country, gives up a lot of yards on the ground. Thats my prediction and my pick. I didnt say they would do that, I said they have to do that to win and I like the odds. Do you see the difference or arent you good at math?

Ps. I recommend anybody to take my advice when wagering. I myself dont wager.

[AZGrizFan]

No. Reading comprehension my friend, read, think post. I said in order to win EWU would have to generate about 100 yds rushing. I thought they could do that against Montana because Montana, I know they played the best teams in the country, gives up a lot of yards on the ground. Thats my prediction and my pick. I didnt say they would do that, I said they have to do that to win and I like the odds. Do you see the difference or arent you good at math?

Yea, I hear that. Sounds like what I was saying in the EWU/USD thread too. Those guys do a great job in the analysis.

Really? He's saying EWU "NEEDS" to develop a running game...you're predicting they WILL have one. Big difference.

Shirley, you can't be serious that you don't see it?

[JBB]

These things arent certainties: I think EWU will win because they will develop a running game. Certainly there remains a chance they could lose.

<<<<<FOOTBALL INSIGHT>>>>>

MOTIVATION:

Its tough to say how good Montana is. They have had decent competition. The win against Cal poly was workman-like but you dont have to be spectacular like the BISON to beat your opponent. This is a good game to get a measure on the 15-10 spots in the national ranking. These teams have a lot to prove. EWU would appear to be on the way down. A win reverses that trend. Montana is at best a power in decline holding its own right now. A win helps move away from that image, that fate, and add momentum to their rebuilding efforts.

</END>

[AZGrizFan]

These things arent certainties. I think EWU will win because they will develop a running game. Certainly there remains a chance they could lose.

<<<<<FOOTBALL INSIGHT>>>>>

MOTIVATION:

Its tough to say how good Montana is. They have had decent competition. The win against Cal poly was workman-like but you dont have to be spectacular like the BISON to beat your opponent. This is a good game to get a measure on the 15-10 spots in the national ranking. These teams have a lot to prove. EWU would appear to be on the way down. A win reverses that trend. Montana is at best a power in decline holding its own right now. A win helps move away from that image, that fate, and add momentum to their rebuilding efforts.

</END>

Now you're just acting stupid on purpose, aren't you?