Aho Old Guy wrote:
JMU in by beating UNH with one additional win. William & Mary and Delaware are in if they win out - ODU has to beat W&M to get in
I don't think so, I think if you replaced Richmond for WM than your statement would be correct. I think in the final two games WM is the one loss ODU can afford. In regards to standings and records, ODU can't afford to lose to Richmond. I don't like ODU's chances if they lose both.
It's always difficult to anticipate the Committee from year to year, but the important thing to take to heart: The win-loss record is “scrutinized to determine a team’s strength in schedule” and that fewer than seven wins in Division I play “may place a team in jeopardy of being selected.”
I think you need a 'signature win' against W&M to offset the weakness of your SoS with Hampton, Georgia State and Campbell. Just beating JMU won't do it -- especially if they finish 6-5.
Where it gets interesting (and causes annual FCS aneurisms) is if ODU finishes 8-3 without beating W&M and JMU finishes 7-4 while beating Liberty, W&M and UNH.
I'm not so sure you will like how that might turn out.
"But the damned and the guiltiest among you are the men who had the capacity to know, yet chose to blank out reality, the men who were willing to sell their intelligence into cynical servitude..."
- John Galt
ODUalum11 wrote:
I don't think so, I think if you replaced Richmond for WM than your statement would be correct. I think in the final two games WM is the one loss ODU can afford. In regards to standings and records, ODU can't afford to lose to Richmond. I don't like ODU's chances if they lose both.
It's always difficult to anticipate the Committee from year to year, but the important thing to take to heart: The win-loss record is “scrutinized to determine a team’s strength in schedule” and that fewer than seven wins in Division I play “may place a team in jeopardy of being selected.”
I think you need a 'signature win' against W&M to offset the weakness of your SoS with Hampton, Georgia State and Campbell. Just beating JMU won't do it -- especially if they finish 6-5.
Where it gets interesting (and causes annual FCS aneurisms) is if ODU finishes 8-3 without beating W&M and JMU finishes 7-4 while beating Liberty, W&M and UNH.
I'm not so sure you will like how that might turn out.
Yeah, I see what you're saying but I think ODU losing to WM on the road wouldn't hurt that much who are a .500 team while losing to Richmond at home would sting a whole lot more. What helps ODU is that they have a head-2-head win over JMU if it were to come down to us or JMU for the final spot. What hurts ODU is that it was at home and ODU barely won. In other words, I think we can both agree that ODU should be better off if they just take care of business and win both games.
Win out and you are in - losing to W&M gives the Committee an excuse to leave you at home for the playoffs.
I suspect 'body of work' is weighted slightly more heavily than 'head-to-head' because the win-loss record is “scrutinized to determine a team’s strength in schedule." Also remember that the 'rumors' are FBS losses are minimized, effectively (theoretically in this case) making JMU 7-3 ....
with games against both Maine and UNH - something not on your resume.
If you can't (don't!) beat W&M, pull for Maine and UNH to lose out! (just an example Bears & 'Cats don't shoot the messenger!)
"But the damned and the guiltiest among you are the men who had the capacity to know, yet chose to blank out reality, the men who were willing to sell their intelligence into cynical servitude..."
- John Galt
Don't count out YSU and their #2 offense in the nation. Sounds like Rennie may have torn his Achilles Tendon and could be out for the game Saturday in the UNIDome.
YSU is 5-3 and finishes with road games at UNI, NDSU, and a home game vs. MSU. Should finish no worse than 6-5.
SO IlSU has WIU this weekend a game we should win, that puts us at 7-3 with UNI at home 11/19, coming off a bye week...at 7-4 i t hink IlSU has a hard time getting in, but at 8-3 (a win over UNI) and IlSU has to be a lock. WIth the game at home we had a good shot...if the rumors are true about Rinnie, I think that would give STATE a better than 50/50 shot in that game
isumatt wrote:SO IlSU has WIU this weekend a game we should win, that puts us at 7-3 with UNI at home 11/19, coming off a bye week...at 7-4 i t hink IlSU has a hard time getting in, but at 8-3 (a win over UNI) and IlSU has to be a lock. WIth the game at home we had a good shot...if the rumors are true about Rinnie, I think that would give STATE a better than 50/50 shot in that game
Rennie is questionable for YSU. Questionable leads me to believe that some of the Internet rumors may be stretching the extent of his injury a bit.
If he indeed is just questionable, one would think he may be able to able to play 3 weeks from now. We shall see.
YSU-UNI will be a big game for teams on the bubble for a playoff spot.
AZGrizFan wrote:a) I don't think there's any doubt that if Central Arkansas wins out, they're in at 8-3 and ending the season on a 7 game winning streak.
b) I think Cal Poly WILL win out...they have Eastern at home, and Eastern now has nothing to play for.
c) I think Towson loses to Maine, but wins against UNH & Richmond, and they're in at 8-3.
d) I think JMU wins out and is in at 8-3 as well.
e) If Illinois State beats WIU they're in w/7 D-I wins as well...
Not with @ UNH, URI, and @ UMass and the JMU injury situation.
OL has been decimated by injuries. Vs ODU 2 starters went out for the season, a third went out with a concussion and might miss Sat vs UNH. Thats on top of starting the season missing a starter from last season. So we'll have an OL that went from being very good to garbage trying to protect a rFr QB who the JMU coaches don't want taking hits because he's been playing with a dislocated shoulder from 3 weeks ago. Oh did I mention out starting TB went down this past Sat too? Or did I mention both starting DTs have been lost for the season?
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Aho Old Guy wrote:Win out and you are in - losing to W&M gives the Committee an excuse to leave you at home for the playoffs.
I suspect 'body of work' is weighted slightly more heavily than 'head-to-head' because the win-loss record is “scrutinized to determine a team’s strength in schedule." Also remember that the 'rumors' are FBS losses are minimized, effectively (theoretically in this case) making JMU 7-3 ....
with games against both Maine and UNH - something not on your resume.
If you can't (don't!) beat W&M, pull for Maine and UNH to lose out! (just an example Bears & 'Cats don't shoot the messenger!)
Well like I've already said, I think losing to Richmond would be a better excuse for the committee to leave out ODU than losing to WM on the road. WM is still a pretty good team while UR doesn't seem to be by looking at their winless conference record.
isumatt wrote:SO IlSU has WIU this weekend a game we should win, that puts us at 7-3 with UNI at home 11/19, coming off a bye week...at 7-4 i t hink IlSU has a hard time getting in, but at 8-3 (a win over UNI) and IlSU has to be a lock. WIth the game at home we had a good shot...if the rumors are true about Rinnie, I think that would give STATE a better than 50/50 shot in that game
Sweet avatar.
"Ah fuck. You are right." KYJelly, 11/6/12
"The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam." Barack Obama, 9/25/12
AZGrizFan wrote:a) I don't think there's any doubt that if Central Arkansas wins out, they're in at 8-3 and ending the season on a 7 game winning streak.
b) I think Cal Poly WILL win out...they have Eastern at home, and Eastern now has nothing to play for.
c) I think Towson loses to Maine, but wins against UNH & Richmond, and they're in at 8-3.
d) I think JMU wins out and is in at 8-3 as well.
e) If Illinois State beats WIU they're in w/7 D-I wins as well...
Not with @ UNH, URI, and @ UMass and the JMU injury situation.
OL has been decimated by injuries. Vs ODU 2 starters went out for the season, a third went out with a concussion and might miss Sat vs UNH. Thats on top of starting the season missing a starter from last season. So we'll have an OL that went from being very good to garbage trying to protect a rFr QB who the JMU coaches don't want taking hits because he's been playing with a dislocated shoulder from 3 weeks ago. Oh did I mention out starting TB went down this past Sat too? Or did I mention both starting DTs have been lost for the season?
Hmmmm.....wasn't aware of all that. Doesn't bode well for ya'll then.
"Ah fuck. You are right." KYJelly, 11/6/12
"The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam." Barack Obama, 9/25/12
isumatt wrote:SO IlSU has WIU this weekend a game we should win, that puts us at 7-3 with UNI at home 11/19, coming off a bye week...at 7-4 i t hink IlSU has a hard time getting in, but at 8-3 (a win over UNI) and IlSU has to be a lock. WIth the game at home we had a good shot...if the rumors are true about Rinnie, I think that would give STATE a better than 50/50 shot in that game
I could see it happening, but it will definitely be a fight for you guys to get in.
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isumatt wrote:SO IlSU has WIU this weekend a game we should win, that puts us at 7-3 with UNI at home 11/19, coming off a bye week...at 7-4 i t hink IlSU has a hard time getting in, but at 8-3 (a win over UNI) and IlSU has to be a lock. WIth the game at home we had a good shot...if the rumors are true about Rinnie, I think that would give STATE a better than 50/50 shot in that game
I could see it happening, but it will definitely be a fight for you guys to get in.
Well, not everybody gets to play the soft nonconference schedule you guys did.
"Ah fuck. You are right." KYJelly, 11/6/12
"The future must not belong to those who slander the prophet of Islam." Barack Obama, 9/25/12
Aho Old Guy wrote: William & Mary and Delaware are in if they win out
Neither will have 7 D-I wins. Based on the committee's history, that kills them.
If we only went based on committee history the MVFC would have never gotten four teams in the playoffs in 2003 and the CAA would have never gotten five teams in 2007. Both were thougth to be impossible based on committee history. All I'm saying is we've only had one year of 20 teams, we can't know exactly what will pan out year to year.
mcveyrl wrote:
Neither will have 7 D-I wins. Based on the committee's history, that kills them.
If we only went based on committee history the MVFC would have never gotten four teams in the playoffs in 2003 and the CAA would have never gotten five teams in 2007. Both were thougth to be impossible based on committee history. All I'm saying is we've only had one year of 20 teams, we can't know exactly what will pan out year to year.
That's true. But compare some of the at-larges from last year against some of the 6 win teams from last year, and I think it tells a pretty telling tale (alliteration baby!). If there's not enough 7 win teams, my opinion is they'll look to a second team in the PL, Big South, NEC or Cal Poly before going to the 6 win teams from the top four conferences.
mcveyrl wrote:If there's not enough 7 win teams, my opinion is they'll look to a second team in the PL, Big South, NEC or Cal Poly before going to the 6 win teams from the top four conferences.
Big South can't have two teams finish with 7 DI wins. Liberty and Stony Brook both have to win out to get to 7 and they still have to play each other. Do you really think they'd take a 9-2 Duquesne second place NEC team? CalPoly at 8-3 is a good bet, but they have a D2 win also, so 7-4 is no go. Only other shot for what you mention above is G'town to beat Lehigh while LU wins their other two games. G'town with the auto and an at-large LU at 9-2. If LU beats G'town, I don't see them getting in at 8-3 (of course that gives the field a "name" team, even if they aren't a name in I-AA football).
I think picking the field is going to be pretty easy this year.
Anyone from the power conferences (CAA, Socon, MVFC or Big Sky) with 7 DI wins is in. Anyone from the GWFC with 8 DI wins is in. That likely won't fill all 10 at-large spots.
Next in line are 8+ win teams from the OVC and Southland and Lehigh if they lose to G'Town and 7 DI wins from the GWFC. Likely you'll fill the entire field here.
If that doesn't fill the bracket then they'll run down the remaining teams from the MEAC, PL and NEC with 8 or 9 DI wins. Big South would fall into this category but as noted above only the AQ will have 7 DI wins. Unlikely they'll need to get to this level.
Then they'll look at the winner of the PFL. Extremely unlikely they'll get to this level.
Last edited by danefan on Tue Nov 01, 2011 7:45 am, edited 1 time in total.
Aho Old Guy wrote:Win out and you are in - losing to W&M gives the Committee an excuse to leave you at home for the playoffs.
I suspect 'body of work' is weighted slightly more heavily than 'head-to-head' because the win-loss record is “scrutinized to determine a team’s strength in schedule." Also remember that the 'rumors' are FBS losses are minimized, effectively (theoretically in this case) making JMU 7-3 ....
with games against both Maine and UNH - something not on your resume.
If you can't (don't!) beat W&M, pull for Maine and UNH to lose out! (just an example Bears & 'Cats don't shoot the messenger!)
Absolutely the most unmitigated crap I have ever seen posted on these boards. So you are saying ODU has to be 9-2 with NINE freaking D1 wins to get in (and in the CAA), while others are having a hard time finding 20 teams that will reach the 7 D1 win milestone?
Lay off the pipe, good sir. It is affecting your ability to reason.
When Maxine Waters reaches the pearly gates, I hope St. Peter bitch-slaps her with a large, wet teabag
mcveyrl wrote:If there's not enough 7 win teams, my opinion is they'll look to a second team in the PL, Big South, NEC or Cal Poly before going to the 6 win teams from the top four conferences.
Big South can't have two teams finish with 7 DI wins. Liberty and Stony Brook both have to win out to get to 7 and they still have to play each other. Do you really think they'd take a 9-2 Duquesne second place NEC team? CalPoly at 8-3 is a good bet, but they have a D2 win also, so 7-4 is no go. Only other shot for what you mention above is G'town to beat Lehigh while LU wins their other two games. G'town with the auto and an at-large LU at 9-2. If LU beats G'town, I don't see them getting in at 8-3 (of course that gives the field a "name" team, even if they aren't a name in I-AA football).
Forgot about the Big South issue, so you're right, scratch that.
My only point of reference on the second place PL and NEC teams is the second place MEAC team last year getting in over Montana (I think Montana's situation is comparable to UD's this year). I'm not saying it's what they should do, it's just my guess.
danefan wrote:Next in line are 8+ win teams from the OVC and Southland and Lehigh if they lose to G'Town. Likely you'll fill the entire field here.
If that doesn't fill the bracket then they'll run down the remaining teams from the MEAC, Big South, PL and NEC with 8 or 9 DI wins. Unlikely they'll need to get to this level.
Then they'll look at the winner of the PFL. Extremely unlikely they'll get to this level.
OVC
EKU - 5-3 still has JSU and TTU = not going to get to 8.
TTU - 5-2 but only has 10 games this year and 1 is a D2.
JSU - 5-3 must win out to get to 8
Southland
UCA - 6-3 with a D2 win
NSU - 5-3 with a D2 win
These two still play each other and NSU also has SHSU. If NSU beats UCA and loses to SHSU, no other Southland will have 7 D1 wins.
The long and short of the reason for me even making this thread is I think this year is pretty damn ugly in I-AA. I was very opposed to expanding to 20 teams for this very reason. It's going to be barrel bottom scraping this year. Looking to fill the bracket with second place teams from conferences that haven't won a single playoff game in over a decade (or one playoff game) is pitiful. To have to look at multiple 7-4 teams is awful. To think about including several teams without wins over a single ranked team is ridiculous.
89Hen wrote:The long and short of the reason for me even making this thread is I think this year is pretty damn ugly in I-AA. I was very opposed to expanding to 20 teams for this very reason. It's going to be barrel bottom scraping this year. Looking to fill the bracket with second place teams from conferences that haven't won a single playoff game in over a decade (or one playoff game) is pitiful. To have to look at multiple 7-4 teams is awful. To think about including several teams without wins over a single ranked team is ridiculous.
don't shoot the messenger!)
