Bracketology

[Gil Dobie]

the NCAA's bogus penchant for regionalization

What is bogus about it? Flying full programs across the country for a first round game is bogus.

Makes sense for the first round games, but the annual SDSU vs NDSU rematch is getting boring in round 2.

[JohnStOnge]

Makes sense for the first round games, but the annual SDSU vs NDSU rematch is getting boring in round 2.

Maybe to you but to an outsider like me that was a great playoff game to watch last year.

[BDKJMU]

-No chance a Patriot, NEC, or Pioneer will be seeded (best is Fordham who could finish 9-2).

From the 7 Full Scholly AQ conferences:
-assuming no 8 win team is seeded ahead of a 9 win team with the exception of CCU if they lose another
-assuming none of the southern teams (CSU/Citadel/UTC) wins their end of season game vs P5 southern powerhouses (Alabama/South Carolina/FSU), looks to be:
-12 teams alive for a top 8 seed
-a maximum of 10 from those 7 conferences that could reach 9 wins because W&M/UR & SUU/PSU play each other
-a (slim) possibility of less than 8 that reach 9 wins due to upsets (which would then mean an 8 win team could get a seed)

The minimum and maximum # of teams that could reach the 9 wins per conference:

MVFC: 0 to 3:
-ILSU (7-2/5-1). Left: @ SIU (3-6), vs SD (5-4)
-NDSU (7-2/5-1). Left: @ YSU (5-4), MO St (1-8)
-SDSU (7-2/4-2). Left: @ SD (5-4), @ WIU (4-5)

CAA: 0 to 2:
-UR (7-2/5-1) Left:@ VU (5-4), W&M (7-2)
-W&M (7-2/5-1) Left: TU (6-3) @ UR (7-2)
-JMU (7-2/4-2) Left: @ UD (3-6), VU (5-4)

Big Sky: 0 to 1 (winner of SUU/PSU on Sat)
-SUU (7-2/6-0). 6-1 vs I-AA (lost to a I-A & beat a Div II). Left: @ PSU (7-2) & NAU (6-3).
-PSU (7-2/4-2). 2 I-A wins, beat Div II. Left: SUU (7-2), @ EWU (8-3).

Southland: ONE
-McNeese (9-0). Left: Bye, @ Lamar (4-5). *McNeese only 10 games/9 vs Div I, played Div II, no I-A, opening weekend game @ LSU cancelled.

Big South: 0-2
-CSU (8-1). Left: Liberty (5-4), @ Alabama. Play 2 I-A & Div II. So if beat LU will finish 9-2/8-0 vs I-AA.
-CCU (8-1). Left: Kennesaw St (6-3), @ Liberty (5-4)

OVC: 0-1:
-JSU (8-1): Left: SEMO (4-5), Murray St (3-6).

So-Con: ZERO assuming the winner of Saturday's Citadel/UTC game loses their P5 game on 11/21.
-Citadel (7-2/6-0). Left: @ UTC (5-3/5-1), @ South Carolina
-UTC (7-2/5-1). Left: Citadel (7-2), @ Florida State

[BDKJMU]

Mostly copied & pasted from JMU booard. If JMU wins out to finish 9-2/6-2, if it ended up being those 10 maximum 9 win teams from those 7 conferences, JMU would probably fall 9th in line, ahead of only one of the Big South teams, as I don't think both Big South would be seeded ahead of JMU. Regardless, 9th would be odd man out for getting a top 8 seed with the all important bye.

So besides beating UD & VU, JMU fans should be hopeing 1 of the big 3 MVFC gets upset for a 3rd loss, and for good measure Liberty can knock off 1 of the big 2 SC schools in the Big South...Then JMU at 9-2/6-2 could snag that a #7-#8 seed..

[CaseyOrourke]

I posted this the OTHER FCS board. Thought I would post it here and see what responses I could get from this....


I don't want to be vilified for being a Portland State homer (even though I am ), but I assessed the win/loss schedule using the NCAA Simple Rating for the PSU schedule up to this point.

D-1 Home record 2-1 (0.75+0.75-0.75=0.75)
D-1 Road record 2-1 (1.25+1.25-1.25= 1.25)
D-2 record 1-0 (+0.65)
FBS record 2-0 (1.35+1.35=2.70)

So at this point PSU stands at a 5.35 with an additional 1.90 points available for the upcoming games against SUU (home game) and EWU (road game).
Win both games we stand at 7.20, win at home & lose on the road, it's 6.05, lose at home win on the road, it's 4.75.

I'm not saying that's enough but if you look at strength of the schedule, we played and beat teams that were ranked (at that time). Idaho State was IIRC, a ranked when we beat them, as was Montana and Montana State. Our losses to North Dakota and Northern Colorado might hurt us a bit, but we lost both of those games by a total of 5 points, so at least, they weren't blowouts.

Add to that was the fact on the first game of the season we upset Washington State (currently 6-3, 2nd in Pac-12 North and with one more win will be bowl eligible) and a 66-7 beat down of North Texas. Granted North Texas is currently among the worst FBS teams this year, but we did set an all time record for worst defeat of an FBS team by an FCS team (59 points).

I make no predictions here, but hopefully if we win both our remaining games, we will be a seeded team, lose one of them, we will still have an at large bid. If we lose both we may be on the bubble, but hopefully those two FBS wins will be enough to get us in

[kalm]

I posted this the OTHER FCS board. Thought I would post it here and see what responses I could get from this....


I don't want to be vilified for being a Portland State homer (even though I am ), but I assessed the win/loss schedule using the NCAA Simple Rating for the PSU schedule up to this point.

D-1 Home record 2-1 (0.75+0.75-0.75=0.75)
D-1 Road record 2-1 (1.25+1.25-1.25= 1.25)
D-2 record 1-0 (+0.65)
FBS record 2-0 (1.35+1.35=2.70)

So at this point PSU stands at a 5.35 with an additional 1.90 points available for the upcoming games against SUU (home game) and EWU (road game).
Win both games we stand at 7.20, win at home & lose on the road, it's 6.05, lose at home win on the road, it's 4.75.

I'm not saying that's enough but if you look at strength of the schedule, we played and beat teams that were ranked (at that time). Idaho State was IIRC, a ranked when we beat them, as was Montana and Montana State. Our losses to North Dakota and Northern Colorado might hurt us a bit, but we lost both of those games by a total of 5 points, so at least, they weren't blowouts.

Add to that was the fact on the first game of the season we upset Washington State (currently 6-3, 2nd in Pac-12 North and with one more win will be bowl eligible) and a 66-7 beat down of North Texas. Granted North Texas is currently among the worst FBS teams this year, but we did set an all time record for worst defeat of an FBS team by an FCS team (59 points).

I make no predictions here, but hopefully if we win both our remaining games, we will be a seeded team, lose one of them, we will still have an at large bid. If we lose both we may be on the bubble, but hopefully those two FBS wins will be enough to get us in

Win out and you're a stone cold lock for a top
4 seed.

Lose one and your a lock for an at large.

Lose both and you're sweating (3 straight losses) but probably still in.

[CaseyOrourke]

I posted this the OTHER FCS board. Thought I would post it here and see what responses I could get from this....


I don't want to be vilified for being a Portland State homer (even though I am ), but I assessed the win/loss schedule using the NCAA Simple Rating for the PSU schedule up to this point.

D-1 Home record 2-1 (0.75+0.75-0.75=0.75)
D-1 Road record 2-1 (1.25+1.25-1.25= 1.25)
D-2 record 1-0 (+0.65)
FBS record 2-0 (1.35+1.35=2.70)

So at this point PSU stands at a 5.35 with an additional 1.90 points available for the upcoming games against SUU (home game) and EWU (road game).
Win both games we stand at 7.20, win at home & lose on the road, it's 6.05, lose at home win on the road, it's 4.75.

I'm not saying that's enough but if you look at strength of the schedule, we played and beat teams that were ranked (at that time). Idaho State was IIRC, a ranked when we beat them, as was Montana and Montana State. Our losses to North Dakota and Northern Colorado might hurt us a bit, but we lost both of those games by a total of 5 points, so at least, they weren't blowouts.

Add to that was the fact on the first game of the season we upset Washington State (currently 6-3, 2nd in Pac-12 North and with one more win will be bowl eligible) and a 66-7 beat down of North Texas. Granted North Texas is currently among the worst FBS teams this year, but we did set an all time record for worst defeat of an FBS team by an FCS team (59 points).

I make no predictions here, but hopefully if we win both our remaining games, we will be a seeded team, lose one of them, we will still have an at large bid. If we lose both we may be on the bubble, but hopefully those two FBS wins will be enough to get us in

Win out and you're a stone cold lock for a top
4 seed.

Lose one and your a lock for an at large.

Lose both and you're sweating (3 straight losses) but probably still in.

Better you saying it than me.

[SuperHornet]

the NCAA's bogus penchant for regionalization

What is bogus about it? Flying full programs across the country for a first round game is bogus.

My biggest problem with it is that they're not doing it within the construct of the four historic regional bowls. Someone's been keeping track of provisional regional bowl winners since the division split back in '78 on Wikipedia, but it's not recognized by the NCAA, and the games certainly aren't in their traditional sites. I would DEFINITELY love to resurrect the Camellia Bowl in Sac....

[89Hen]

What is bogus about it? Flying full programs across the country for a first round game is bogus.

Makes sense for the first round games, but the annual SDSU vs NDSU rematch is getting boring in round 2.

Stop making the playoffs.

[89Hen]

What is bogus about it? Flying full programs across the country for a first round game is bogus.

My biggest problem with it is that they're not doing it within the construct of the four historic regional bowls. Someone's been keeping track of provisional regional bowl winners since the division split back in '78 on Wikipedia, but it's not recognized by the NCAA, and the games certainly aren't in their traditional sites. I would DEFINITELY love to resurrect the Camellia Bowl in Sac....

WTF are you talking about ??

[dbackjon]

I posted this the OTHER FCS board. Thought I would post it here and see what responses I could get from this....


I don't want to be vilified for being a Portland State homer (even though I am ), but I assessed the win/loss schedule using the NCAA Simple Rating for the PSU schedule up to this point.

D-1 Home record 2-1 (0.75+0.75-0.75=0.75)
D-1 Road record 2-1 (1.25+1.25-1.25= 1.25)
D-2 record 1-0 (+0.65)
FBS record 2-0 (1.35+1.35=2.70)

So at this point PSU stands at a 5.35 with an additional 1.90 points available for the upcoming games against SUU (home game) and EWU (road game).
Win both games we stand at 7.20, win at home & lose on the road, it's 6.05, lose at home win on the road, it's 4.75.

I'm not saying that's enough but if you look at strength of the schedule, we played and beat teams that were ranked (at that time). Idaho State was IIRC, a ranked when we beat them, as was Montana and Montana State. Our losses to North Dakota and Northern Colorado might hurt us a bit, but we lost both of those games by a total of 5 points, so at least, they weren't blowouts.

Add to that was the fact on the first game of the season we upset Washington State (currently 6-3, 2nd in Pac-12 North and with one more win will be bowl eligible) and a 66-7 beat down of North Texas. Granted North Texas is currently among the worst FBS teams this year, but we did set an all time record for worst defeat of an FBS team by an FCS team (59 points).

I make no predictions here, but hopefully if we win both our remaining games, we will be a seeded team, lose one of them, we will still have an at large bid. If we lose both we may be on the bubble, but hopefully those two FBS wins will be enough to get us in

Win out and you're a stone cold lock for a top
4 seed.

Lose one and your a lock for an at large.

Lose both and you're sweating (3 straight losses) but probably still in.

I'd agree with this.

The Wazoo win gives PSU some latitude.