Playoff Projections- Nov. 15

[AZGrizFan]

Montana's 4th best win (NAU or Sac) will be comparable to UNI's best (Missouri State)

The best team Montana will play, would be the 4th best team on UNI's schedule.

[kalm]

Touchet.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

Montana's 4th best win (NAU or Sac) will be comparable to UNI's best (Missouri State)

The best team Montana will play, would be the 4th best team on UNI's schedule.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

The way I see it, WSU and EWU will both win next week. MSU will play a tough game against UM, but not enough and will in most-likelihood lose. The leaves EWU at 8-3 and WSU at 7-4. WSU played the tougher schedule due to the TWO FBS games, vs. ONE for EWU, however that doesn't matter given that WSU lost both of their FBS games. Can anyone tell me the last time a 7-4 team was chosen for an at-large over an 8-3 team (not from the NEC or Patriot) that did not win an FBS game? EWU despite losing the head to head, will get in based on having only 3 losses instead of 4, and playing Montana much closer than Weber. The loss to WSU at home is mitigated by our win over MSU and Weber losing to MSU in Ogden.

Keep in mind, I'm not saying the Griz will destroy the Cats (although I wouldn't mind ), but I think that the Griz will likely come away with a win. Cats will give them a game though.

SE the 8-3 thing won't mean shit in EWU's case because you have a win over a lower division team. I guarantee you that they won't even consider that win. In the committee's eyes you are 7-3. Don't get caught up in thinking that 8-3 means anything because you will be sorely disappointed.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

The way I see it, WSU and EWU will both win next week. MSU will play a tough game against UM, but not enough and will in most-likelihood lose. The leaves EWU at 8-3 and WSU at 7-4. WSU played the tougher schedule due to the TWO FBS games, vs. ONE for EWU, however that doesn't matter given that WSU lost both of their FBS games. Can anyone tell me the last time a 7-4 team was chosen for an at-large over an 8-3 team (not from the NEC or Patriot) that did not win an FBS game? EWU despite losing the head to head, will get in based on having only 3 losses instead of 4, and playing Montana much closer than Weber. The loss to WSU at home is mitigated by our win over MSU and Weber losing to MSU in Ogden.

Keep in mind, I'm not saying the Griz will destroy the Cats (although I wouldn't mind ), but I think that the Griz will likely come away with a win. Cats will give them a game though.

SE the 8-3 thing won't mean shit in EWU's case because you have a win over a lower division team. I guarantee you that they won't even consider that win. In the committee's eyes you are 7-3. Don't get caught up in thinking that 8-3 means anything because you will be sorely disappointed.

I'm not thinking the D-II win will make the difference. I'm saying the lack of another loss will. 7-3 is better than 7-4. Weber scheduled themselves out of contention... they needed to win one of their FBS games and they didn't. Weber holds the head to head, but EWU has the better performance against 2 other playoff/bubble teams.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

SE the 8-3 thing won't mean shit in EWU's case because you have a win over a lower division team. I guarantee you that they won't even consider that win. In the committee's eyes you are 7-3. Don't get caught up in thinking that 8-3 means anything because you will be sorely disappointed.

I'm not thinking the D-II win will make the difference. I'm saying the lack of another loss will. 7-3 is better than 7-4. Weber scheduled themselves out of contention... they needed to win one of their FBS games and they didn't. Weber holds the head to head, but EWU has the better performance against 2 other playoff/bubble teams.

I hear ya and can completely agree with that position and yet I can also completely agree with the opposing viewpoint...

What I'm trying to guess at here is if the committee will put more weight on the head to head or more weight on you guys having one less loss.

[Screamin_Eagle174]

I'm not thinking the D-II win will make the difference. I'm saying the lack of another loss will. 7-3 is better than 7-4. Weber scheduled themselves out of contention... they needed to win one of their FBS games and they didn't. Weber holds the head to head, but EWU has the better performance against 2 other playoff/bubble teams.

I hear ya and can completely agree with that position and yet I can also completely agree with the opposing viewpoint...

What I'm trying to guess at here is if the committee will put more weight on the head to head or more weight on you guys having one less loss.

Or the better performance against other playoff caliber competition: MSU, UM.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

I hear ya and can completely agree with that position and yet I can also completely agree with the opposing viewpoint...

What I'm trying to guess at here is if the committee will put more weight on the head to head or more weight on you guys having one less loss.

Or the better performance against other playoff caliber competition: MSU, UM.

I wouldn't put a lot of weight on that one SE as I've seen the bitching for years by teams that were snubbed and using that exact thinking as the backdrop for the argument of why they should have been in over team X. I'm just saying don't get too augered in on those types of things as they may or may not make the difference over the head to head win. The head to head is a tough one to overcome is all I'm saying.

[UNHWildCats]

Seven wins? Given a win next week, and Liberty will be 9-2. Snubbing a 9-2 team isn't likely.

In addition, Weber has the nod over EWU in SOS, I believe. I'd like to see three BSC as well (probably UM/Kitties/Weber), but ECB will ensure that we get TWO. If that.

Regardless, I stand by my prediction of Griz over Liberty in Chatty.

well if we are going to let a team in just cause they are 9-2 what about Old Dominion?

[kalm]

Or the better performance against other playoff caliber competition: MSU, UM.

I wouldn't put a lot of weight on that one SE as I've seen the bitching for years by teams that were snubbed and using that exact thinking as the backdrop for the argument of why they should have been in over team X. I'm just saying don't get too augered in on those types of things as they may or may not make the difference over the head to head win. The head to head is a tough one to overcome is all I'm saying.

Tell that to the cat fans.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

I wouldn't put a lot of weight on that one SE as I've seen the bitching for years by teams that were snubbed and using that exact thinking as the backdrop for the argument of why they should have been in over team X. I'm just saying don't get too augered in on those types of things as they may or may not make the difference over the head to head win. The head to head is a tough one to overcome is all I'm saying.

Tell that to the cat fans.

I'll wait this one out and see how you do with them.

[BlueHen86]

Seven wins? Given a win next week, and Liberty will be 9-2. Snubbing a 9-2 team isn't likely.

In addition, Weber has the nod over EWU in SOS, I believe. I'd like to see three BSC as well (probably UM/Kitties/Weber), but ECB will ensure that we get TWO. If that.

Regardless, I stand by my prediction of Griz over Liberty in Chatty.

Why? They snubbed a 10-0 San Diego a few years ago. I guess you also have Lafayette in the playoffs if they finish 9-2?

[MrTitleist]

Remember when San Diego fans were BEGGING for a game in Missoula? Then promptly throttled by UC-Davis (right) the week after?

[T-Dog]

Question here that was sort of brought up in the Big Sky thread.

Does the committee really not count FBS wins when it comes to playoffs? If so, the chances of App getting a seed are a lot better now.

[JayJ79]

Question here that was sort of brought up in the Big Sky thread.

Does the committee really not count FBS wins when it comes to playoffs? If so, the chances of App getting a seed are a lot better now.

why wouldn't they count FBS wins? FBS is still division I.
Now, I would hope that the committee is smart enough not to think that any FBS win automatically trumps a win over a good FCS team. But they're still D-I wins.

[BlueHen86]

Remember when San Diego fans were BEGGING for a game in Missoula? Then promptly throttled by UC-Davis (right) the week after?

I remember it well. The committee was right no to put San Diego in the playoffs and UC-Davis shut a lot of people up.

[Ursus A. Horribilis]

Question here that was sort of brought up in the Big Sky thread.

Does the committee really not count FBS wins when it comes to playoffs? If so, the chances of App getting a seed are a lot better now.

If you are talking about my post in that thread then you misunderstood what I was saying to SE174. I was telling him that EWU is not 8-3 in the committee's eyes because they would not look at Western Ore. in any way, shape, or form. The committee will not look at a d2 or any other lower division win in a favorable light as far as your overall record goes. They do count ALL D1 wins & losses. Close losses to FBS teams don't seem to overly impress them either but a win over the FBS teams has in the past gotten a lot of attention.

[clenz]

If UNI gets in I can promise you we host...assuming we aren't sent to a seed.


I can almost with 99.9% certainty say we are in.

[pantherrob82]

If UNI gets in I can promise you we host...assuming we aren't sent to a seed.


I can almost with 99.9% certainty say we are in.

QFT

[dbackjon]

Montana's 4th best win (NAU or Sac) will be comparable to UNI's best (Missouri State)

The best team Montana will play, would be the 4th best team on UNI's schedule.

All of which you lost.

UNI would be the fourth best team on NAU's schedule. Want a cookie?

[DJH]

The best team Montana will play, would be the 4th best team on UNI's schedule.

All of which you lost.

UNI would be the fourth best team on NAU's schedule. Want a cookie?

I was pointing out schedule strength.

[Appaholic]

I'm failing to see how Elon's wins compare to others, and I'm a SoCon fan. They have blown people out, but arguably their best win was a close call with a 5-5 Furman team. They choked on their home field this weekend, so I think their rank is a little inflated IMO

I wouldn't have agreed with you prior to this past weekend. Let's be honest, it's tough to find a quality win in the SoCon this year & another conference, like the Big Fluffy, should reap the rewards....If EWU, MSU and/of WSU win out, they should get in ahead of another SoCon team IMO....

[PhoenixSupreme]

Here's hoping that Elon doesn't choke the game against Samford away

Also, I secretly hope that Elon would play against Richmond...it means I wouldn't have to do any traveling, and we can get attempt some "revenge" on the Richmond win @ Elon last year.

[Cap'n Cat]

If UNI or SDSU loses this week, I'm not sure I'd consider them worthy of a playoff spot, as I think that in that circumstance, there might be other teams more deserving of the at-large.

But I think both teams should be able to win this week.

Agreed, Jaybird.

[WrenFGun]

There is a 100% chance UNI hosts if they aren't sent to Montana, IMO.