The #1 team's schedule strength

[JohnStOnge]

I think probably there is some "watering down" of both I-AA/FCS and I-A/FBS over the years. I-A/FBS has gotten a bunch of teams that don't really belong there. Meanwhile, I think what's happened in I-AA/FCS is illustrated by the Southland Conference history.

When teams like Louisiana Tech, Northeast Louisiana, Troy, North Texas, Arkansas State, and Texas State went to I-A/FBS that gave them some recruiting advantage over teams that remained in I-AA/FCS. But not in the sense of getting players that would have gone to legitimate I-A/FBS schools. It's more having advantage in getting players that 20 years ago would've been among the top players going to I-AA schools. So there are a lot of players in that area of the country who once would've been playing I-AA/FCS in the Southland now playing in the Sun Belt or CUSA.

Both subdivisions would be better off if nobody had ever moved from I-AA/FCS to I-A/FBS. FBS would be better and FCS would be better as well.

[89Hen]

great points!

89's one valid point is that the SoCon has been down.

SoCon is down, Southland is down with the exception of SHSU, Patriot is down, and you could make a case that the CAA is down... CAA has had an NC finalist in only 1 of the last 5 seasons. Prior to that it was 7 of 8 years with a finalist. Part of that is NDSU taking a spot from everyone for so many years, but the fact that they have been so dominant in a way proves my point.

[93henfan]

CAA is clearly down. 2003-2010 (those years aren't a coincidence) was the high water mark period for the CAA. Many of those years you had five teams that were chipper-worthy (I don't mean just ranked, I mean deep playoff run teams). Most years since, it's been one, two, maybe three.

[JohnStOnge]

CAA is clearly down. 2003-2010 (those years aren't a coincidence) was the high water mark period for the CAA. Many of those years you had five teams that were chipper-worthy (I don't mean just ranked, I mean deep playoff run teams). Most years since, it's been one, two, maybe three.

But also remember that the CAA was not real great relative to the rest of I-AA prior to 1998 when UMass won the league's first national title.

[Gil Dobie]

great points!

89's one valid point is that the SoCon has been down.

SoCon is down, Southland is down with the exception of SHSU, Patriot is down, and you could make a case that the CAA is down... CAA has had an NC finalist in only 1 of the last 5 seasons. Prior to that it was 7 of 8 years with a finalist. Part of that is NDSU taking a spot from everyone for so many years, but the fact that they have been so dominant in a way proves my point.

Southland has 2 teams in the selection committee top 10, but agree, no one else will make the playoffs from that conference. Maybe JSO is right about the Texas schools impacting recruiting for the Southland, and Southern Conference schools have been impacted by other Southern Schools moving, but the Big Sky and MVFC have not been impacted, and I don't see much movement in the ECB either. We are also seeing some pretty good NFL players come from recent FCS teams, David Johnson for example. They are just coming from different teams now, due to coaching/recruiting tides changing. Some schools are down, some are up. The only recent FCS champions to move up in the last 10 years is App St, and they were not winning championships when they moved.

[kalm]

SoCon is down, Southland is down with the exception of SHSU, Patriot is down, and you could make a case that the CAA is down... CAA has had an NC finalist in only 1 of the last 5 seasons. Prior to that it was 7 of 8 years with a finalist. Part of that is NDSU taking a spot from everyone for so many years, but the fact that they have been so dominant in a way proves my point.

Southland has 2 teams in the selection committee top 10, but agree, no one else will make the playoffs from that conference. Maybe JSO is right about the Texas schools impacting recruiting for the Southland, and Southern Conference schools have been impacted by other Southern Schools moving, but the Big Sky and MVFC have not been impacted, and I don't see much movement in the ECB either. We are also seeing some pretty good NFL players come from recent FCS teams, David Johnson for example. They are just coming from different teams now, due to coaching/recruiting tides changing. Some schools are down, some are up. The only recent FCS champions to move up in the last 10 years is App St, and they were not winning championships when they moved.

The Southland is about the same. Perhaps the new additions drag it down slightly, but SFA, McNeese, SELA, SHSU, and UCA are no worse regarding playoff appearances and perhaps even a little better.

The Patriot had two playoff wins last year and a Lehigh team that is tearing it up right now.

The NEC had a nice win over a ranked Stony Brook this season and Duquesne almost beat Bill and Mary in the playoffs last year.

As Gil said, it ebbs and flows from conference to conference as new teams rise up, old powers diminish, and coaches change.

[89Hen]

Southland has 2 teams in the selection committee top 10, but agree, no one else will make the playoffs from that conference. Maybe JSO is right about the Texas schools impacting recruiting for the Southland, and Southern Conference schools have been impacted by other Southern Schools moving, but the Big Sky and MVFC have not been impacted, and I don't see much movement in the ECB either. We are also seeing some pretty good NFL players come from recent FCS teams, David Johnson for example. They are just coming from different teams now, due to coaching/recruiting tides changing. Some schools are down, some are up. The only recent FCS champions to move up in the last 10 years is App St, and they were not winning championships when they moved.

The Southland is about the same. Perhaps the new additions drag it down slightly, but SFA, McNeese, SELA, SHSU, and UCA are no worse regarding playoff appearances and perhaps even a little better.

The Patriot had two playoff wins last year and a Lehigh team that is tearing it up right now.

The NEC had a nice win over a ranked Stony Brook this season and Duquesne almost beat Bill and Mary in the playoffs last year.

As Gil said, it ebbs and flows from conference to conference as new teams rise up, old powers diminish, and coaches change.

A Lehigh team that's tearing it up right now? Last time I looked they were 0-2 outside of the PL and Ivy. Lehigh used to be a very good team, they are now just like the rest of the PL and nobody has stepped up to take their place. Fordham seemed to be moving up but they have already fallen back to mediocrity. You do realize that Monmouth, who is 0-4 and in the bottom of the Big South, basically is your Patriot League champion at this point considering they have wins over their #1 and #2 teams? I can't believe for a second that you're trying to prop up the Patriot and the NEC. They are absolutely pitiful.

[JohnStOnge]

Southland is down with the exception of SHSU

Central Arkansas is not down. They are kind of flying under the radar. Their one loss was weird. They lost to Samford by 6. But in that game they had 36 first downs to Samford's 11, 577 total yards to Samford's 257, and 231 yards to Samford's -25 Samford had two defensive touchdowns but even with that it's hard to see how Central Arkansas managed to lose while dominating like that. The Bears are currently #1 in FCS rushing defense, #7 in total defense, #8 in pass efficiency defense, and #6 in scoring defense.

They're also decent as well as balanced on offense. #14 in total offense, #14 in rushing offense, and #14 in scoring offense. Not real high in total passing offense at 43rd. But they're decent in pass efficiency at 21 and they average 232.9 yards per game passing along with 227.9 yards per game rushing. Very balanced.

They have a win over a FBS opponent. It's Arkansas State. Not like beating Iowa and not great. But the Red Wolves are currently tied for the Sun Belt lead with a 4-0 conference record. It's certainly the best out of conference win for the Southland this year.

They have to end the season on the road against Sam Houston State but I certainly wouldn't be shocked if they win because they are strong on both offense and defense while Sam Houston State is all offense. We'll see.

[JohnStOnge]

BTW I do think the Southland could have three teams in the field if McNeese wins out. Odds are they won't. But I still think that depending on what happens elsewhere they could get in with a 7-4 record and a win over Sam Houston State. I think Sam Houston State is a little over rated (I know you're shocked to see me say that). But they do enjoy a certain perception because of the big scores they've been running up.

I think it would be similar to 2013 when Sam Houston State beat Eastern Washington but their other wins were over 3-4 Houston Baptist, 2-9 Texas Southern, 6-5 Incarnate Word, 5-7 Lamar, 6-6 Northwestern State, 3-9 SFA, and 4-8 Nicholls State. AND they finished the season by losing their last two games by 13 to Southeastern Louisiana and by 18 to Central Arkansas.

If Sam Houston State could get selected in 2013 in spite of getting handled in their last two games...probably because they beat Eastern Washington...I don't think it's beyond the realm of reasonable possibility for McNeese to get in if they beat Sam Houston State this week then finish with a win over Lamar to go 7-4. The Sam Houston State win would fill the niche the Eastern Washington win filled for the Bearkats in 2013 and they'd have finished on a four game winning streak. Plus they'd have only lost one of their four games by more than a single score. They got blown out by Central Arkansas but lost their other three games by 8, 3, and 7 points.

[89Hen]

Southland is down with the exception of SHSU

Central Arkansas is not down. They are kind of flying under the radar. Their one loss was weird. They lost to Samford by 6.

You mean the third place team in the SoCon that we also said was way down?

[GannonFan]

The SoCon being down, and as down as they are, is the biggest weakness in FCS/I-AA compared to prior years. That's the biggest difference by far, especially when it appears like it will likely never come back. Kudos to the MVFC and the Big Sky, because they are more than holding their own, but the rest of the sub division across the board is just weaker than it was 5 years ago and even that was weaker than 5 years before that. Too many defections, too many powers regressing, and not enough to fill the void. NDSU winning 5 straight is emblematic of that. They're a great program, absolutely, but there've been other great programs in the past that couldn't get past 2 or 3 in a row because they had too much competition to overcome. Doesn't seem to be the case any more.

[kalm]

Central Arkansas is not down. They are kind of flying under the radar. Their one loss was weird. They lost to Samford by 6.

You mean the third place team in the SoCon that we also said was way down?

They turned it over 6 times in that game while holding Samford to -27 yards rushing. Weird games happen. UCA also has an FBS win and Sanford put up more yards on Miss St (600+) than A&M did.

Keep trying!

[89Hen]

You mean the third place team in the SoCon that we also said was way down?

They turned it over 6 times in that game while holding Samford to -27 yards rushing. Weird games happen. UCA also has an FBS win and Sanford put up more yards on Miss St (600+) than A&M did.

Keep trying!

Weird games do happen, like Arkansas State gaining 469 yards and turning it over 4 times to UCA. BTW, kinda funny that ArkSt is 0-4 OOC and 4-0 in the SunBelch.

[kalm]

They turned it over 6 times in that game while holding Samford to -27 yards rushing. Weird games happen. UCA also has an FBS win and Sanford put up more yards on Miss St (600+) than A&M did.

Keep trying!

Weird games do happen, like Arkansas State gaining 469 yards and turning it over 4 times to UCA. BTW, kinda funny that ArkSt is 0-4 OOC and 4-0 in the SunBelch.

I just wanna give all you Delaware fellars a big, giant hug.

[89Hen]

Weird games do happen, like Arkansas State gaining 469 yards and turning it over 4 times to UCA. BTW, kinda funny that ArkSt is 0-4 OOC and 4-0 in the SunBelch.

I just wanna give all you Delaware fellars a big, giant hug.

I'll take it.

The committee is gonna have a really hard time finding 24 teams this year, but keep pretending I-AA is stronger than ever.

[Gil Dobie]

The SoCon being down, and as down as they are, is the biggest weakness in FCS/I-AA compared to prior years. That's the biggest difference by far, especially when it appears like it will likely never come back. Kudos to the MVFC and the Big Sky, because they are more than holding their own, but the rest of the sub division across the board is just weaker than it was 5 years ago and even that was weaker than 5 years before that. Too many defections, too many powers regressing, and not enough to fill the void. NDSU winning 5 straight is emblematic of that. They're a great program, absolutely, but there've been other great programs in the past that couldn't get past 2 or 3 in a row because they had too much competition to overcome. Doesn't seem to be the case any more.

Still thinking it's a Delaware perspective. Here is a list of the top 5 FCS schools in the Sagarin rankings. 2006 and 2007 NDSU teams were not eligible for the playoffs.

2006 Sagarin
#53 App St 73.36
#57 NDSU 71.81
#59 Mass 71.24
#70 Montana 68.63
#71 Youngstown 68.55

2007
#44 App St 75.73
#62 UNI 72.33
#67 Richmond 70.13
#71 NDSU 68.80
#73 Delaware 68.64

2008
#41 Richmond 76.23
#45 James Madison 74.98
#62 Montana 71.53
#63 Villanova 71.24
#69 App St 70.00

2009
#30 Villanova 78.74
#49 William & Mary 75.19
#59 Montana 71.73
#60 Richmond 71.25
#76 App St 68.12

2010
#52 Delaware 72.88
#57 Villanova 72.42
#58 E Washington 72.40
#72 Georgia Southern 67.84
#75 App St 67.62

2011
#37 NDSU 76.60
#62 Sam Houston 70.59
#63 Montana 70.56
#75 UNI 68.20
#81 Georgia Southern 67.24

2012
#35 NDSU 77.94
#63 Sam Houston 70.81
#72 Georgia Southern 68.44
#79 South Dakota State 66.59
#88 E Washington 64.51

2013
#17 NDSU 86.38
#46 Eastern Illinois 75.23
#66 Towson 69.79
#79 E Washington 65.60
#84 SE Louisiana 64.81

2014
#32 NDSU 79.73
#41 Illinois St 75.14
#55 UNI 72.15
#67 South Dakota State 69.09
#68 Coastal Carolina 68.49

2015
#36 NDSU 77.77
#76 Illinois State 67.35
#77 UNI 67.35
#79 Jacksonville State 66.62
#89 South Dakota State 64.41

2016
#55 NDSU 73.45
#66 E Washington 69.55
#76 UNI 66.99
#88 James Madison 63.78
#89 Jacksonville State 63.52

[89Hen]

Sagarin? Seriously?

[GannonFan]

The SoCon being down, and as down as they are, is the biggest weakness in FCS/I-AA compared to prior years. That's the biggest difference by far, especially when it appears like it will likely never come back. Kudos to the MVFC and the Big Sky, because they are more than holding their own, but the rest of the sub division across the board is just weaker than it was 5 years ago and even that was weaker than 5 years before that. Too many defections, too many powers regressing, and not enough to fill the void. NDSU winning 5 straight is emblematic of that. They're a great program, absolutely, but there've been other great programs in the past that couldn't get past 2 or 3 in a row because they had too much competition to overcome. Doesn't seem to be the case any more.

Still thinking it's a Delaware perspective. Here is a list of the top 5 FCS schools in the Sagarin rankings. 2006 and 2007 NDSU teams were not eligible for the playoffs.

2006 Sagarin
#53 App St 73.36
#57 NDSU 71.81
#59 Mass 71.24
#70 Montana 68.63
#71 Youngstown 68.55

2007
#44 App St 75.73
#62 UNI 72.33
#67 Richmond 70.13
#71 NDSU 68.80
#73 Delaware 68.64

2008
#41 Richmond 76.23
#45 James Madison 74.98
#62 Montana 71.53
#63 Villanova 71.24
#69 App St 70.00

2009
#30 Villanova 78.74
#49 William & Mary 75.19
#59 Montana 71.73
#60 Richmond 71.25
#76 App St 68.12

2010
#52 Delaware 72.88
#57 Villanova 72.42
#58 E Washington 72.40
#72 Georgia Southern 67.84
#75 App St 67.62

2011
#37 NDSU 76.60
#62 Sam Houston 70.59
#63 Montana 70.56
#75 UNI 68.20
#81 Georgia Southern 67.24

2012
#35 NDSU 77.94
#63 Sam Houston 70.81
#72 Georgia Southern 68.44
#79 South Dakota State 66.59
#88 E Washington 64.51

2013
#17 NDSU 86.38
#46 Eastern Illinois 75.23
#66 Towson 69.79
#79 E Washington 65.60
#84 SE Louisiana 64.81

2014
#32 NDSU 79.73
#41 Illinois St 75.14
#55 UNI 72.15
#67 South Dakota State 69.09
#68 Coastal Carolina 68.49

2015
#36 NDSU 77.77
#76 Illinois State 67.35
#77 UNI 67.35
#79 Jacksonville State 66.62
#89 South Dakota State 64.41

2016
#55 NDSU 73.45
#66 E Washington 69.55
#76 UNI 66.99
#88 James Madison 63.78
#89 Jacksonville State 63.52

First of all, I agree with 89 - Sagarin? Really? (and frankly, the data you just showed would actually reinforce the idea that the FCS is slipping - back in the early years, it was one or no teams in the top 5 that would be below 70, and even then, just barely under 70. Recent years, you have up to 4 teams in the top 5 in the 60's and some are very low in the 60's. I'm sure if we could get skelly to do a chart of the teams 2 through 5 you'd see a steadily decreasing slope).

And second of all, you'd be thinking it was a GSU thing or an Appy St thing or something else except those teams are gone. It's just a Delaware perspective to you guys because we're still around and we post a lot. Like I said, things aren't bad in the MVFC and the Big Sky, but that's just one corner of the FCS world, and a distant one at that. I mean, someone actually said Lehigh was tearing things up. And they were being positive about it.

[89Hen]

someone actually said Lehigh was tearing things up. And they were being positive about it.

That someone shut up pretty quickly when I brought up Monmouth.

[GannonFan]

someone actually said Lehigh was tearing things up. And they were being positive about it.

That someone shut up pretty quickly when I brought up Monmouth.

If they even know what a Monmouth is.

[kalm]

That someone shut up pretty quickly when I brought up Monmouth.

If they even know what a Monmouth is.

That was a bad loss for Lehigh. The next week they lost a close one to Nova and have now won 8 straight and (with the exception of last week's game) have been putting up points in bunches. I'll admit the Patriot lacks OOC quality wins this season, but it should continue to be on the rise with the extra schollies and I wouldn't be surprised to see Lehigh have a little playoff success like Colgate did last year.

Now...let's get in line for those hugs...

[89Hen]

If they even know what a Monmouth is.

That was a bad loss for Lehigh. The next week they lost a close one to Nova and have now won 8 straight and (with the exception of last week's game) have been putting up points in bunches. I'll admit the Patriot lacks OOC quality wins this season, but it should continue to be on the rise with the extra schollies and I wouldn't be surprised to see Lehigh have a little playoff success like Colgate did last year.

You're underselling the PL suckitude.

Bucknell - lost to Duquesne, Cornell and VMI
Fordham and Lenigh lost to Monmouth
Lafayette lost to Delaware for Christ's sake

You said they lack quality OOC wins as if there were ONE. Holy Cross over Harvard is perhaps the best win for the PL this year. That's weak.

[kalm]

That was a bad loss for Lehigh. The next week they lost a close one to Nova and have now won 8 straight and (with the exception of last week's game) have been putting up points in bunches. I'll admit the Patriot lacks OOC quality wins this season, but it should continue to be on the rise with the extra schollies and I wouldn't be surprised to see Lehigh have a little playoff success like Colgate did last year.

You're underselling the PL suckitude.

Bucknell - lost to Duquesne, Cornell and VMI
Fordham and Lenigh lost to Monmouth
Lafayette lost to Delaware for Christ's sake

You said they lack quality OOC wins as if there were ONE. Holy Cross over Harvard is perhaps the best win for the PL this year. That's weak.

Which still doesn't prove that FCS is down over the past decade. Conferences go up and down. Last year, the PL had two playoff wins. The OVC and Big South appear to be down this year while the BSC and CAA have more solid teams.

[Gil Dobie]

Still thinking it's a Delaware perspective. Here is a list of the top 5 FCS schools in the Sagarin rankings. 2006 and 2007 NDSU teams were not eligible for the playoffs.

2006 Sagarin
#53 App St 73.36
#57 NDSU 71.81
#59 Mass 71.24
#70 Montana 68.63
#71 Youngstown 68.55

2007
#44 App St 75.73
#62 UNI 72.33
#67 Richmond 70.13
#71 NDSU 68.80
#73 Delaware 68.64

2008
#41 Richmond 76.23
#45 James Madison 74.98
#62 Montana 71.53
#63 Villanova 71.24
#69 App St 70.00

2009
#30 Villanova 78.74
#49 William & Mary 75.19
#59 Montana 71.73
#60 Richmond 71.25
#76 App St 68.12

2010
#52 Delaware 72.88
#57 Villanova 72.42
#58 E Washington 72.40
#72 Georgia Southern 67.84
#75 App St 67.62

2011
#37 NDSU 76.60
#62 Sam Houston 70.59
#63 Montana 70.56
#75 UNI 68.20
#81 Georgia Southern 67.24

2012
#35 NDSU 77.94
#63 Sam Houston 70.81
#72 Georgia Southern 68.44
#79 South Dakota State 66.59
#88 E Washington 64.51

2013
#17 NDSU 86.38
#46 Eastern Illinois 75.23
#66 Towson 69.79
#79 E Washington 65.60
#84 SE Louisiana 64.81

2014
#32 NDSU 79.73
#41 Illinois St 75.14
#55 UNI 72.15
#67 South Dakota State 69.09
#68 Coastal Carolina 68.49

2015
#36 NDSU 77.77
#76 Illinois State 67.35
#77 UNI 67.35
#79 Jacksonville State 66.62
#89 South Dakota State 64.41

2016
#55 NDSU 73.45
#66 E Washington 69.55
#76 UNI 66.99
#88 James Madison 63.78
#89 Jacksonville State 63.52

First of all, I agree with 89 - Sagarin? Really? (and frankly, the data you just showed would actually reinforce the idea that the FCS is slipping - back in the early years, it was one or no teams in the top 5 that would be below 70, and even then, just barely under 70. Recent years, you have up to 4 teams in the top 5 in the 60's and some are very low in the 60's. I'm sure if we could get skelly to do a chart of the teams 2 through 5 you'd see a steadily decreasing slope).

And second of all, you'd be thinking it was a GSU thing or an Appy St thing or something else except those teams are gone. It's just a Delaware perspective to you guys because we're still around and we post a lot. Like I said, things aren't bad in the MVFC and the Big Sky, but that's just one corner of the FCS world, and a distant one at that. I mean, someone actually said Lehigh was tearing things up. And they were being positive about it.

I'm not a big fan of Sagarin either, but what else do you have to show the difference? How many years ago is 2014? I'm not sure Lehigh is tearing up things outside of their conference. There have been 3 posters from Delaware saying FCS was down. If GSU and Appy were still around and complaining, then yes, but they moved on.

[GannonFan]

First of all, I agree with 89 - Sagarin? Really? (and frankly, the data you just showed would actually reinforce the idea that the FCS is slipping - back in the early years, it was one or no teams in the top 5 that would be below 70, and even then, just barely under 70. Recent years, you have up to 4 teams in the top 5 in the 60's and some are very low in the 60's. I'm sure if we could get skelly to do a chart of the teams 2 through 5 you'd see a steadily decreasing slope).

And second of all, you'd be thinking it was a GSU thing or an Appy St thing or something else except those teams are gone. It's just a Delaware perspective to you guys because we're still around and we post a lot. Like I said, things aren't bad in the MVFC and the Big Sky, but that's just one corner of the FCS world, and a distant one at that. I mean, someone actually said Lehigh was tearing things up. And they were being positive about it.

I'm not a big fan of Sagarin either, but what else do you have to show the difference? How many years ago is 2014? I'm not sure Lehigh is tearing up things outside of their conference. There have been 3 posters from Delaware saying FCS was down. If GSU and Appy were still around and complaining, then yes, but they moved on.

Those guys were complaining before they moved on. Heck, that was a factor in them moving on.