5 Games I'm Keeping An Eye On -- 8/30/08

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5 Games I'm Keeping An Eye On -- 8/30/08

Post by BigApp »

It's back for another season! GAS does the Countdown, BigC does the Prediction thread, BigApp gives you the "5 Games I'm Keeping An Eye On" report. It's often imitated and even duplicated around the net and newpapers, but this is the original FCS upset special list. I switched computers and don't have the exact numbers, but typically this report is good for 55-60% success rate. I follow up each week with the "winners and losers".

:shock:

The basics of this are: all FCS games, NO App games, typically no SoCon games, and no "Marquee" type games (i.e. matchups of highly ranked since everyone else is already looking at them).

I look for games that are sorta "under the radar" that don't necessarily affect the rankings, but have a real impact on the ultimate goal of FCS, the Playoffs. As for the rankings, I use The Sports Network's.

Here we go:

1. #35 Jackson State @ #43 Hampton — Last season, JSU’s high-powered offense was given the bulk of the credit for their turnaround, but it was their defense that proved to be the real deal and launched them to an 8-4 season. Hampton has been HBCU’s headline grabber over the last several years with several NFL players, playoff bids and high poll rankings. What makes this game interesting is it’s the first for the Pirates without the architect of that success. Head coach Joe Taylor has moved on to Florida A&M. 3-year Defensive coordinator Jerry Holmes is now the OBC for boys in blue. HU has several standouts on it’s roster, how they will respond to the new coach will be crucial. Plus, it’s MEAC vs. SWAC. Think their won’t be any smackin’ going on?

2. #39 Colgate @ #59 Stony Brook – Colgate is expected to be a middle-of-the-pack team in the Patriot League, but they do return Jordan Scott who is trying to become CU’s all-time leading rusher (topping NFL’ers Mark Van Eeghan & Kenny Gamble, among others). This game is interesting as Stony Brook is playing it’s first game, at home, as a member of the Big South. SB had a stingy defense last year, so did Colgate. Both also ran the ball well.

3. #14 Cal-Poly @ San Diego State – Normally, I wouldn’t include an FCS vs. FBS matchup in the 5 games report, but since it’s the first week of the season we don’t really know what we have. This game however would pop up anyway as we have an FCS team (C-P) that has big expectations for 2008, and an FBS team in SDSU that, well, doesn’t. C-P traditionally has a stingy attacking defense, SDSU is starting an unproven QB. The big catch with this game however, is that last season SDSU had an awful defense that gave up 500 yards/game. C-P averaged 487 yds/game, broke school Offense records and return 10 offensive starters. If the Aztecs haven’t figured out how to plug the sieve, watch out.

4. Towson @ Navy – Another FCS/FBS matchup, not much is expected from the Tigers this year. Navy however is starting anew with a new Head Coach in Ken Niumatalolo. Towson’s coach has been around for 17 years and has usually fielded very good defenses. Navy’s triple option will be a challenge.

5. Jacksonville @ Savannah State – I’m guessing JU has the mantra of “Have team, will travel.” Over the course of 7 days, the Dolphins will travel (literally) from one extreme – rock bottom – of FCS in SSU to the absolute pinnacle in Appalachian. Wonder which game the ‘phins are more excited about?? That’s exactly why they’re on this list

Extra Points:

· #6 Delaware @ Maryland – If UD is good, this game should be as well.

· Birmingham-Southern @ Campbell -- the Fightin’ Camels virgin voyage

· Presbyterian @ #13 Wofford – who’ll thump their Bibles harder??
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Re: 5 Games I'm Keeping An Eye On -- 8/30/08

Post by skinny_uncle »

At least Cal-Poly won.
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Re: 5 Games I'm Keeping An Eye On -- 8/30/08

Post by BigApp »

Not too shabby a first weekend, 3 Upsets! Usually this opening weekend is full of dogs and dead possums, but there were a few jewels in the mine. I have to say, I was a bit surprised to see the Stony Brook/Colgate score and the Jax/SSU score. If the 'phins can only muster 2 touchdowns against Savannah, they're in for a loooooong weekend in Boone. Also note, the halftime score in that game was 0-0.

1. Jackson State--13 @ Hampton--17

2. Colgate--26 @ Stony Brook-42

3. Cal-Poly--29 @ San Diego State--27


4. Towson--41 @ Navy-13

5. Jacksonville--20 @ Savannah State--7
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