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UPDATE: I changed Montana State to Big Sky Champ and EWU to at-large based on the fact in my predictions both would be 7-1 and Montana State gets tie breaker. EWU still gets the seed though based on Montana State having wins over Drake and Fort Lewis compared to just one weak opponent for EWU OOC (Central Washington) and the fact that Montana State loss to NAU looks a bit uglier today.



It's a mess. I looked at what remains for teams and through my own feelings chose winners and losers. It may or may not playout like that but if theres a team missing you think should be in, its simply because I dont think they will get to 7 division I wins. I had a real problem with this too, because the field gets weak on the backend. If my predictions hold up we have a very real chance of seeing a 6 win team (div I wins) make the field as an at-large over two of the teams I put in.

Auto Qualifiers
Montana State - Big Sky Champion
Liberty - Big South Champion
William & Mary - Colonial Athletic Champion
Bethune-Cookman - MEAC Champion
Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley Champion
Jacksonville State - Ohio Valley Champion
Lehigh - Patriot Champion
Stephen F. Austin - Southland Champion
Appalachian State - Southern Champion
Robert Morris - Northeast Champion

At-Large Selections
Eastern Washington - Big Sky
Deleware - Colonial
Villanova - Colonial
New Hampshire - Colonial
Massachusetts - Colonial
South Carolina State - MEAC
Southeast Missouri State - Ohio Valley
Wofford - Southern
Central Connecticut State - Northeast
Dayton - Pioneer

Who didn't make the field and why?
Montana - I picked them to lose to Montana State and thus failing to achieve 7 division I wins.
Weber State - I picked them to lose to Montana State and Texas Tech and thus failing to achieve 7 division I wins.
James Madison - I picked them to lose to William & Mary and thus failing to achieve 7 division I wins.
North Dakota State - I picked them to lose their three remaining games and thus failing to achieve 7 division I wins.
Holy Cross - I picked them to lose to Lehigh and thus not achieving 7 division I wins.
Chattanooga - I picked them to lose to Auburn and Wofford and thus not achieving 7 division I wins.
Furman - I picked them to lose to Georgia Southern and thus not achieving 7 division I wins.
Georgia Southern - I picked them to lose to Appalachian State and thus not achieving 7 division I wins.

You get the idea.


The Bracket

Northern Iowa
-------------------------------> #1 Appalachian State
South Carolina State


..................................New Hampshire
..................................SEMO


..................................Lehigh
..................................#5 Delware

Bethune-Cookman
-------------------------------> #4 William & Mary
Liberty




Robert Morris
-------------------------------->#3 Jacksonville State
Dayton


..................................Wofford
..................................Villanova


..................................Montana State
..................................SFA


Central Connecticut State
---------------------------------> #2 Eastern Washington
Massachusetts

I honestly think NDSU has a really good chance of making the playoffs. I got a ton of crap about it last week, but I doubt they'll lose all 3, I can see them winning all 3 as a more likely scenario. 8-3, 5-3 in conference, almost a lock at that point. And with 7 wins they'd still get in over Dayton/JU or CCSU due to the quality of their wins.

ODU will likely go 8-3 too. I know it's a loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong shot for the playoffs, but our schedule isn't that horrendous. I could see us going in over Dayton, but not Jacksonville since JU beat us.

I say, send us to Liberty!!!

ToTheLeft wrote:I honestly think NDSU has a really good chance of making the playoffs. I got a ton of crap about it last week, but I doubt they'll lose all 3, I can see them winning all 3 as a more likely scenario. 8-3, 5-3 in conference, almost a lock at that point. And with 7 wins they'd still get in over Dayton/JU or CCSU due to the quality of their wins.

Its always fun to get the Valley boys going.

Also...

RMU/Dayton would be a rematch from the Regular Season.

EWU #2 Seed!? I wish!

ToTheLeft wrote:Also...

RMU/Dayton would be a rematch from the Regular Season.

True, but if they both make the playoffs it might be tough cookies because of the fact it would be a bus trip.

Screamin_Eagle174 wrote:EWU #2 Seed!? I wish!

I had Jacksonville State there but then decided that being Big Sky champ might boost EWU over Jax State.

∞∞∞ wrote:ODU will likely go 8-3 too. I know it's a loooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooong shot for the playoffs, but our schedule isn't that horrendous. I could see us going in over Dayton, but not Jacksonville since JU beat us.

I say, send us to Liberty!!!

perhaps, but while the schedule is ok... you didnt beat any of the decent teams. Dayton has a win over a Playoff team which could be an advantage. In the end though I think the selection committee would take a 7-4 Montana with only 6 division I wins over Dayton.

I like your picks as a CCSU fan, but honestly can't see how this happens.

No way do you get an at-large from the MEAC, NEC, and PFL in the same season.

Have to look at these teams first :
WIU - Just needs to split their last 2 games (at SIU and Vs. NIU) to finish with 7 wins.
Cal Poly - 2 win (at South Dakota & vs Davis) and they're in.

I also think the committe will take a teams from a "major conference" with just 6 D-I wins if they have just 4 losses.

UNHWildCats wrote:

ToTheLeft wrote:Also...

RMU/Dayton would be a rematch from the Regular Season.

True, but if they both make the playoffs it might be tough cookies because of the fact it would be a bus trip.

True, but you have Lehigh getting a first round bye, which isn't happening, and they'll likely be RMU's first round opponent.

UNHWildCats wrote:

ToTheLeft wrote:I honestly think NDSU has a really good chance of making the playoffs. I got a ton of crap about it last week, but I doubt they'll lose all 3, I can see them winning all 3 as a more likely scenario. 8-3, 5-3 in conference, almost a lock at that point. And with 7 wins they'd still get in over Dayton/JU or CCSU due to the quality of their wins.

Its always fun to get the Valley boys going.

Why doesn't WIU make the playoffs?

After the way our season started, I can't believe Weber is being mentioned regarding the playoffs after week 9. We have to win @ Montana State on Saturday for the talk to continue and it can go away as quick as it came back.

Guys, help me out. What's the earliest teams from the same conference can be matched up? If a team has a bye in the 1st round, can the play a team from their own league in their 1st game (i.e. the Round of 16)??

bluehenbillk wrote:Guys, help me out. What's the earliest teams from the same conference can be matched up? If a team has a bye in the 1st round, can the play a team from their own league in their 1st game (i.e. the Round of 16)??

Yes.

Screamin_Eagle174 wrote:EWU #2 Seed!? I wish!

Yeah, but look at the second round game in this bracket. You would face SFA or MSU. Either one would be a cool match up. SFA because of last years second round game, and MSU because they beat you earlier this year. Either way, there would be some really good story lines if this bracket holds true.

UNHWildCats wrote:

Screamin_Eagle174 wrote:EWU #2 Seed!? I wish!

I had Jacksonville State there but then decided that being Big Sky champ might boost EWU over Jax State.

Over a potentially 11-0 JSU team with a win over an SEC team and averages around 10,000 more in attendance than EWU?
Thats a good one, LOL

UNHWildCats wrote:At-Large Selections
Central Connecticut State - Northeast
Dayton - Pioneer

WTF are you smoking? CCSU would be 8-3 (7-3 DI) with lopsided losses to their only DI OOC opponents.
Dayton at 9-1 has no shot either.

89Hen wrote:

UNHWildCats wrote:At-Large Selections
Central Connecticut State - Northeast
Dayton - Pioneer

WTF are you smoking? CCSU would be 8-3 (7-3 DI) with lopsided losses to their only DI OOC opponents.
Dayton at 9-1 has no shot either.

I'm not picking CCSU for an at-large either, but 2 of the 3 losses would be to top-25 playoff teaams (UNH and RMU). The YSU loss looks very ugly (and it was), but Central is a team with a better resume than any MEAC at large (although I know that's not saying much).

aceinthehole wrote:

89Hen wrote: WTF are you smoking? CCSU would be 8-3 (7-3 DI) with lopsided losses to their only DI OOC opponents.
Dayton at 9-1 has no shot either.

I'm not picking CCSU for an at-large either, but 2 of the 3 losses would be to top-25 playoff teaams (UNH and RMU). The YSU loss looks very ugly (and it was), but Central is a team with a better resume than any MEAC at large (although I know that's not saying much).

I didn't even notice that he gave SCSt an at-large. HOWEVER, SCSt did have solid showings at AppSt the last couple years and they do draw pretty well. Remember, for better or for worse, not all selections are done based on resume just this year, or just on W-L.

The MEAC doesn't deserve an at-large. Not counting FBS, non-D1, or games against the two transitioning MEAC teams (SSU, NCCU), the MEAC is 1-8 in OOC play. That win is against a winless Mississippi Valley State.

UNHWildCats wrote:It's a mess. I looked at what remains for teams and through my own feelings chose winners and losers. It may or may not playout like that but if theres a team missing you think should be in, its simply because I dont think they will get to 7 division I wins. I had a real problem with this too, because the field gets weak on the backend. If my predictions hold up we have a very real chance of seeing a 6 win team (div I wins) make the field as an at-large over two of the teams I put in.

Auto Qualifiers
Eastern Washington - Big Sky Champion
Liberty - Big South Champion
William & Mary - Colonial Athletic Champion
Bethune-Cookman - MEAC Champion
Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley Champion
Jacksonville State - Ohio Valley Champion
Lehigh - Patriot Champion
Stephen F. Austin - Southland Champion
Appalachian State - Southern Champion
Robert Morris - Northeast Champion

At-Large Selections
Montana State - Big Sky
Deleware - Colonial
Villanova - Colonial
New Hampshire - Colonial
Massachusetts - Colonial
South Carolina State - MEAC
Southeast Missouri State - Ohio Valley
Wofford - Southern
Central Connecticut State - Northeast
Dayton - Pioneer

Who didn't make the field and why?
Montana - I picked them to lose to Montana State and thus failing to achieve 7 division I wins.
Weber State - I picked them to lose to Montana State and Texas Tech and thus failing to achieve 7 division I wins.
James Madison - I picked them to lose to William & Mary and thus failing to achieve 7 division I wins.
North Dakota State - I picked them to lose their three remaining games and thus failing to achieve 7 division I wins.
Holy Cross - I picked them to lose to Lehigh and thus not achieving 7 division I wins.
Chattanooga - I picked them to lose to Auburn and Wofford and thus not achieving 7 division I wins.
Furman - I picked them to lose to Georgia Southern and thus not achieving 7 division I wins.
Georgia Southern - I picked them to lose to Appalachian State and thus not achieving 7 division I wins.

You get the idea.


The Bracket

Northern Iowa
-------------------------------> #1 Appalachian State
South Carolina State


..................................New Hampshire
..................................SEMO


..................................Lehigh
..................................#5 Delware

Bethune-Cookman
-------------------------------> #4 William & Mary
Liberty




Robert Morris
-------------------------------->#3 Jacksonville State
Dayton


..................................Wofford
..................................Villanova


..................................Montana State
..................................SFA


Central Connecticut State
---------------------------------> #2 Eastern Washington
Massachusetts

If Montana State beats Montana and Weber, as you have postulated, they will be the Big Sky Champion by virtue of having beat Eastern head-to-head. sigh.

UNHWildCats wrote:It's a mess. I looked at what remains for teams and through my own feelings chose winners and losers. It may or may not playout like that but if theres a team missing you think should be in, its simply because I dont think they will get to 7 division I wins. I had a real problem with this too, because the field gets weak on the backend. If my predictions hold up we have a very real chance of seeing a 6 win team (div I wins) make the field as an at-large over two of the teams I put in.

Auto Qualifiers
Eastern Washington - Big Sky Champion
Liberty - Big South Champion
William & Mary - Colonial Athletic Champion
Bethune-Cookman - MEAC Champion
Northern Iowa - Missouri Valley Champion
Jacksonville State - Ohio Valley Champion
Lehigh - Patriot Champion
Stephen F. Austin - Southland Champion
Appalachian State - Southern Champion
Robert Morris - Northeast Champion

At-Large Selections
Montana State - Big Sky
Deleware - Colonial
Villanova - Colonial
New Hampshire - Colonial
Massachusetts - Colonial
South Carolina State - MEAC
Southeast Missouri State - Ohio Valley
Wofford - Southern
Central Connecticut State - Northeast
Dayton - Pioneer

Who didn't make the field and why?
Montana - I picked them to lose to Montana State and thus failing to achieve 7 division I wins.
Weber State - I picked them to lose to Montana State and Texas Tech and thus failing to achieve 7 division I wins.
James Madison - I picked them to lose to William & Mary and thus failing to achieve 7 division I wins.
North Dakota State - I picked them to lose their three remaining games and thus failing to achieve 7 division I wins.
Holy Cross - I picked them to lose to Lehigh and thus not achieving 7 division I wins.
Chattanooga - I picked them to lose to Auburn and Wofford and thus not achieving 7 division I wins.
Furman - I picked them to lose to Georgia Southern and thus not achieving 7 division I wins.
Georgia Southern - I picked them to lose to Appalachian State and thus not achieving 7 division I wins.

You get the idea.


The Bracket

Northern Iowa
-------------------------------> #1 Appalachian State
South Carolina State


..................................New Hampshire
..................................SEMO


..................................Lehigh
..................................#5 Delware

Bethune-Cookman
-------------------------------> #4 William & Mary
Liberty




Robert Morris
-------------------------------->#3 Jacksonville State
Dayton


..................................Wofford
..................................Villanova


..................................Montana State
..................................SFA


Central Connecticut State
---------------------------------> #2 Eastern Washington
Massachusetts

wait if Montana State beats Montana and Weber State that means they will be 7-1 in the Big Sky Conference and Eastern Washington if they win against Idaho State will be 7-1 and Northern Arizona already has 2 loses and so does Montana and Weber State so they couldn't win the Conference so it would be a tie between Eastern Washington and Montana State both at 7-1 in the Big Sky Conference so it would come down the tie breaker between Eastern Washington and Montana State and Montana State won that game 30-7 so then Montana State would get the Auto Bid and Eastern would not be ranked number 2

aceinthehole wrote:I like your picks as a CCSU fan, but honestly can't see how this happens.

No way do you get an at-large from the MEAC, NEC, and PFL in the same season.

Have to look at these teams first :
WIU - Just needs to split their last 2 games (at SIU and Vs. NIU) to finish with 7 wins.
Cal Poly - 2 win (at South Dakota & vs Davis) and they're in.

I also think the committe will take a teams from a "major conference" with just 6 D-I wins if they have just 4 losses.

I made that case too. I did say I see a 7-4 Montana with 6 Div I wins getting in over CCSU or Dayton. No harm though in putting forth a bracket with both teams in it... and of course... everything I predict is unlikely to occur anyway.

Gil Dobie wrote:

UNHWildCats wrote: Its always fun to get the Valley boys going.

Why doesn't WIU make the playoffs?

my predictions have them losing both remaining games. probably unlikely.... but their my predictions