My New Bracket Projection

[UNHWildCats]

UPDATE: With the Cal Poly loss, I replaced them with Liberty. Liberty has the best resume among remaining eligible teams (Liberty, Florida A&M, Central Connecticut State, Duquesne, Colgate, Dayton, Jacksonville, Old Dominion) But this sets up a perfect storm situation for Montana to sneak in at 7-4 if the committee so chose to take a team with only 6 division I wins.)


First lets get they "Why isn't __________ in the bracket?" out of the way.

These of course are just my predictions.

Montana loses to Montana State and fails to win 7 division 1 games.
Weber State loses to Texas Tech and fails to win 7 division 1 games.
Liberty loses to Stony Brook and loses the auto bid. Resume doesn't stack up for at large bid.
Villanova loses to William & Mary and fails to win 7 division 1 games.
Western Illinois loses to Northern Iowa and fails to win 7 division 1 games.
Dayton and/or Jacksonville... dude, get real.


And now the bracket. I tried to put close teams together. The consensus has generally been if Robert Morris and Lehigh make the field they would be matched up. However with Stony Brook making it, it made more sense to take the two northeast schools (Lehigh and Stony Brook) and match them up with New Hampshire and Massachusetts and then matchup Robert Morris with William & Mary.

[ToTheLeft]

Cal Poly just lost and will not reach 7 DI wins.

[UNHWildCats]

Cal Poly just lost and will not reach 7 DI wins.

I just saw.


Please stand by for a new bracket.

[ToTheLeft]

I just went over all this on FlameFans. It's really going to get my hopes up, only to have them dashed.

But if we beat Stony Brook, we could still miss out on the AQ by tiebreaker, but get an at-large. Our FBS win, as TERRIBLE as it was, will help us get in over other teams we're competing against.

[ToTheLeft]

Just posted this on FlameFans:

There's still a chance we get in as an at large.

Cal Poly lost tonight and will not get to 7 DI wins, and if things play out in the CAA the way they likely will, the "stength" of our FBS win and at least 7 DI wins might be enough to get us in the field of 20.

Coming into this week, the following teams had 7 DI wins already:

Appalachian State, Bethune-Cookman, Dayton, Delaware, Jacksonville, Jacksonville State, Liberty, Lehigh, Montana State, Robert Morris, Southeast Missouri State, Stephen F. Austin, William & Mary, Wofford

We'd get in over Dayton and Jacksonville. App, BCU, JSU, Lehigh, Montana State, RMU, and SFA are all AQ's and we're NOT competing against them.

That leaves:

Delaware, Liberty, Southeast Missouri State, William & Mary, Wofford

UD, WM, and Wofford all get in before us. SEMO St. is interesting, they don't have any wins that much better than ours, and they played, and lost to, Ball State.

At this point, we'll pencil them in anyways, so that's...

UD
WM
Wofford
SEMO St.

EWU won today and likely sealed up their bid.

UD
WM
Wofford
SEMO St.
EWU

Nova is at Delaware, UNH hosts Towson, UMass travels to URI, and Richmond plays William and Mary

If all of those teams win, they'd all be in. However, I can't see the first or last happening. But I'll give the middle two their credit, however, don't be surprised if the Minutemen lose to URI.

UD
WM
Wofford
SEMO St.
EWU
UNH
UMass

Now to look at the other conferences...

Big Sky: Montana plays Montana State. Should the Griz lose, they're OUT. I am predicting a Griz loss.
Weber State plays Texas Tech, and with a loss, they are out as well. Sorry guys, not happening.
So if the Griz lose, we're clear here, no other opportunities for an at-large.

MEAC: South Carolina State has been in the playoffs as the AQ the past couple seasons. This season they're hoping for an at-large. I honestly think we have a better resume than them, but I can see them getting in over us.
Florida A&M are in the same boat, but without playoff experience. They play B-CU for the MEAC title next week, and if B-CU were to lose, they'd be in the same situation. I just don't see a MEAC team making it as an at-large before us, but as I said, it's possible.

MVFC: NDSU has 7 DI wins, as does conference champ UNI. WIU can get there, too, but they have to beat UNI. I think NDSU is likely in ahead of us. WIU would be as well, but I don't see them beating UNI.

NEC: CCSU can get to 7 DI wins, but I don't see them getting in ahead of us.

SoCon: Chatty and GA Southern both will be playing for 7 DI wins next weekend. Either one would get in ahead of us, but both are playing tough games. (@Wofford, @Furman)

Southland: I don't think Lamar counts as a DI win for McNeese, but if it does, they can reach 7 DI wins. I'm not sure how we'd compare to them, but I'd figure they'd be in ahead of us.

UD
WM
Wofford
SEMO St.
EWU
UNH
UMass
NDSU

That's 8 of the 10, so if Montana loses, Weber doesn't pull the upset, the SoCon teams lose on the road, McNeese either loses to UCA, or doesn't get to count Lamar, WIU loses, and B-CU holds off FAMU, we're competing with SCSU, CCSU, and the Pioneer league teams for 2 final spots. Of course, if UMass loses, that's another spot available, but if Nova wins, that's a spot taken away. It's all in flux. The CAA games will be almost over by the time we kickoff, so we'll know where we stand for the most part.

This is, of course, if we win. Even with 7 DI wins, a loss would have us ranked under all those teams.

[∞∞∞]

You really think the Big South will get an at-large? Let's say Stony Brook got the AQ...compare ODU (who won't get in) to Liberty...a team from the same state. A 7-4 Liberty would have losses to James Madison, Robert Morris, Coastal Carolina, and Stony Brook. An 8-3 Old Dominion would have losses to William & Mary, Jacksonville, and Cal Poly. No team has any good wins (Ball State is really not that great). Let's say Liberty wins the Big South, would a 6-5 Stony Brook team really get in over an 8-3 ODU? Coastal Carolina would be their best win.

I just don't see the Big South getting two teams in. Sorry.

[ToTheLeft]

You really think the Big South will get an at-large? Let's say Stony Brook got the AQ...compare ODU (who won't get in) to Liberty...a team from the same state. A 7-4 Liberty would have losses to James Madison, Robert Morris, Coastal Carolina, and Stony Brook. An 8-3 Old Dominion would have losses to William & Mary, Jacksonville, and Cal Poly. No team has any good wins (Ball State is really not that great). Let's say Liberty wins the Big South, would a 6-5 Stony Brook team really get in over an 8-3 ODU? Coastal Carolina would be their best win.

I just don't see the Big South getting two teams in. Sorry.

Liberty could be 8-3 with a win over Stony Brook and not get the AQ. That's at the end of my post. A 7-4 LU needs teams to decline invites to the playoffs in order to make it.

And 8-3 LU gets in over ODU, BSU and SBU wins are better than anything ODU has.

[∞∞∞]

You really think the Big South will get an at-large? Let's say Stony Brook got the AQ...compare ODU (who won't get in) to Liberty...a team from the same state. A 7-4 Liberty would have losses to James Madison, Robert Morris, Coastal Carolina, and Stony Brook. An 8-3 Old Dominion would have losses to William & Mary, Jacksonville, and Cal Poly. No team has any good wins (Ball State is really not that great). Let's say Liberty wins the Big South, would a 6-5 Stony Brook team really get in over an 8-3 ODU? Coastal Carolina would be their best win.

I just don't see the Big South getting two teams in. Sorry.

Liberty could be 8-3 with a win over Stony Brook and not get the AQ. That's at the end of my post. A 7-4 LU needs teams to decline invites to the playoffs in order to make it.

Would you take an 8-3 Liberty team, or an 8-3 ODU team? I honestly couldn't pick. I think it's really that close at this point, and since I can't even imagine ODU being selected, I'm imagining the same for Liberty. Do I think Liberty is a playoff caliber team? Yes. Do I think ODU is? Yes. Would we make it far? Doubt it. Does it matter? Probably not.

edit: just saw your answer. fair enough.

[ToTheLeft]

Also, I just realized that in my post I forgot to pick a CAA AQ, and so there could be as many as 3 or 4 spots left with only SCSU, FAMU, LU, JU, Dayton, ODU, and CCSU to choose from.

[ToTheLeft]

Liberty could be 8-3 with a win over Stony Brook and not get the AQ. That's at the end of my post. A 7-4 LU needs teams to decline invites to the playoffs in order to make it.

Would you take an 8-3 Liberty team, or an 8-3 ODU team? I honestly couldn't pick. I think it's really that close at this point, and since I can't even imagine ODU being selected, I'm imagining the same for Liberty. Do I think Liberty is a playoff caliber team? Yes. Do I think ODU is? Yes. Would we make it far? Doubt it. Does it matter? Probably not.

edit: just saw your answer. fair enough.

CCU loss is worse than Jacksonville (not by much but it is). But LU's wins, as bad as they are, are better than ODU's by a little bit. I am an LU homer tho, so don't take my word for it.

And I wouldn't take a 6-5 SBU or CCU since they wouldn't be eligible. It's not so much a "second Big South" school as it is just Liberty being the best team left after a ton of teams lose out on their chance to make it.

[Mvemjsunpx]

And now the bracket. I tried to put close teams together. The consensus has generally been if Robert Morris and Lehigh make the field they would be matched up. However with Stony Brook making it, it made more sense to take the two northeast schools (Lehigh and Stony Brook) and match them up with New Hampshire and Massachusetts and then matchup Robert Morris with William & Mary.

I think you're forgetting that the First-Round byes are determined before the game pairings. I don't think there's any realistic chance Stony Brook will get a bye.

[UNHWildCats]

You really think the Big South will get an at-large? Let's say Stony Brook got the AQ...compare ODU (who won't get in) to Liberty...a team from the same state. A 7-4 Liberty would have losses to James Madison, Robert Morris, Coastal Carolina, and Stony Brook. An 8-3 Old Dominion would have losses to William & Mary, Jacksonville, and Cal Poly. No team has any good wins (Ball State is really not that great). Let's say Liberty wins the Big South, would a 6-5 Stony Brook team really get in over an 8-3 ODU? Coastal Carolina would be their best win.

I just don't see the Big South getting two teams in. Sorry.

Stony only gets in with the auto bid and thats the assumption in my bracket. Based on my predictions the following teams would be left for one spot...Liberty, Florida A&M, Central Connecticut State, Duquesne, Colgate, Dayton, Jacksonville, Old Dominion. Now as I said, Liberty has the best resume of that group. Yes ODU may have better losses but an FBS win is an FBS win and that trumps anything the other teams have, and since none of the other teams really stand out that is to Liberty's advantage. Now also as I said, Cal Poly and Liberty losing today really opens the door for a 7-4 Montana because of the weak competition for the 20th spot.

[UNHWildCats]

Liberty could be 8-3 with a win over Stony Brook and not get the AQ. That's at the end of my post. A 7-4 LU needs teams to decline invites to the playoffs in order to make it.

Would you take an 8-3 Liberty team, or an 8-3 ODU team? I honestly couldn't pick. I think it's really that close at this point, and since I can't even imagine ODU being selected, I'm imagining the same for Liberty. Do I think Liberty is a playoff caliber team? Yes. Do I think ODU is? Yes. Would we make it far? Doubt it. Does it matter? Probably not.

edit: just saw your answer. fair enough.

ODU has no impressive wins. Liberty beat Ball State, and while its not a truly impressive win, keep in mind that Ball State did beat another playoff team in SEMO, so its not a totally unimpressive win. Its not even lose between them. If there was a discussion between ODU and Liberty... Liberty gets it EASILY

[UNHWildCats]

And now the bracket. I tried to put close teams together. The consensus has generally been if Robert Morris and Lehigh make the field they would be matched up. However with Stony Brook making it, it made more sense to take the two northeast schools (Lehigh and Stony Brook) and match them up with New Hampshire and Massachusetts and then matchup Robert Morris with William & Mary.

I think you're forgetting that the First-Round byes are determined before the game pairings. I don't think there's any realistic chance Stony Brook will get a bye.

i wasnt aware of that.... yes that would make a big difference... I will give it another whack tomorrow.

[JayJ79]

I think you're forgetting that the First-Round byes are determined before the game pairings. I don't think there's any realistic chance Stony Brook will get a bye.

i wasnt aware of that.... yes that would make a big difference... I will give it another whack tomorrow.

Travis does alot of whacking.

[SUUTbird]

One thing however that does seem to be overlooked is if Montana wins, if the Griz are able to pull off the win (they are underdogs in this one i think...cant believe im saying this but i think they are this year) It would leave the Big Sky looking like this:

-Montana: 8-3 (6-2 in Big Sky Play)
-Montana State: 8-3 (6-2 in Big Sky Play)
-Eastern Washington: 9-2 (7-1 in Big Sky Play)

Now if this happens you will have 2 Big Sky schools at 8-3 with EWU taking the title with the overall better conference record. Personally i think if Montana finishes 8-3 that all three of the schools will get in with Montana and Montana State getting @ large bids with EWU getting the seed. Both the Cats and the Griz have better resumes then ODU or Liberty in my opinion. Not taking away from those teams, its just my opinion however.

[ToTheLeft]

One thing however that does seem to be overlooked is if Montana wins, if the Griz are able to pull off the win (they are underdogs in this one i think...cant believe im saying this but i think they are this year) It would leave the Big Sky looking like this:

-Montana: 8-3 (6-2 in Big Sky Play)
-Montana State: 8-3 (6-2 in Big Sky Play)
-Eastern Washington: 9-2 (7-1 in Big Sky Play)

Now if this happens you will have 2 Big Sky schools at 8-3 with EWU taking the title with the overall better conference record. Personally i think if Montana finishes 8-3 that all three of the schools will get in with Montana and Montana State getting @ large bids with EWU getting the seed. Both the Cats and the Griz have better resumes then ODU or Liberty in my opinion. Not taking away from those teams, its just my opinion however.

Griz will definitely be in over SCSU, Liberty, ODU, any of those schools if they get to 7 DI wins.

[JayJ79]

One thing however that does seem to be overlooked is if Montana wins, if the Griz are able to pull off the win (they are underdogs in this one i think...cant believe im saying this but i think they are this year) It would leave the Big Sky looking like this:

-Montana: 8-3 (6-2 in Big Sky Play)
-Montana State: 8-3 (6-2 in Big Sky Play)
-Eastern Washington: 9-2 (7-1 in Big Sky Play)

Now if this happens you will have 2 Big Sky schools at 8-3 with EWU taking the title with the overall better conference record. Personally i think if Montana finishes 8-3 that all three of the schools will get in with Montana and Montana State getting @ large bids with EWU getting the seed. Both the Cats and the Griz have better resumes then ODU or Liberty in my opinion. Not taking away from those teams, its just my opinion however.

Though in the eyes of the playoff committee, those teams would be:
EWU 8-2
UM 7-3
MSU 7-3
since non-DI wins do not count

don't know how that would stack up against other at-large hopefuls (Montana would be in, I'm sure. dunno about MSU though)

[ToTheLeft]

One thing however that does seem to be overlooked is if Montana wins, if the Griz are able to pull off the win (they are underdogs in this one i think...cant believe im saying this but i think they are this year) It would leave the Big Sky looking like this:

-Montana: 8-3 (6-2 in Big Sky Play)
-Montana State: 8-3 (6-2 in Big Sky Play)
-Eastern Washington: 9-2 (7-1 in Big Sky Play)

Now if this happens you will have 2 Big Sky schools at 8-3 with EWU taking the title with the overall better conference record. Personally i think if Montana finishes 8-3 that all three of the schools will get in with Montana and Montana State getting @ large bids with EWU getting the seed. Both the Cats and the Griz have better resumes then ODU or Liberty in my opinion. Not taking away from those teams, its just my opinion however.

Though in the eyes of the playoff committee, those teams would be:
EWU 8-2
UM 7-3
MSU 7-3
since non-DI wins do not count

don't know how that would stack up against other at-large hopefuls (Montana would be in, I'm sure. dunno about MSU though)

Considering they'd likely go up against SCSU, FAMU, Liberty, CCSU, Dayton, and Jacksonville, they're gonna be in. The wins in conference for those teams are good enough to get them in.

[∞∞∞]

they'd likely go up against SCSU, FAMU, Liberty, CCSU, Dayton, and Jacksonville, they're gonna be in. The wins in conference for those teams are good enough to get them in.

No MEAC team deserves an at-large. The conference is 1-8 against OOC competition from the FCS, and that lone win is against Mississippi Valley State, which is 0-10.

[EWURanger]

Wouldn't mind seeing either one of those teams!

[CatMom]

SFA just got to 7 DI wins. Lamar is a non-counter. But they will likely take the SLC by virtue of taking down McNeese and end up 9-2 (6-1). McNeese can not get 7 DI wins (but can share the SLC title;) even with a win this week against UCA. Again, Lamar is a non-counter. How the committee deals with that scenario is anyone's guess.
It's all so confusing (at least right now). With the clusterfuck that the SLC turned into this year, I'm scratching my head.

[ArmyOfDarkness]

If Montana does get in, they will travel to EWU or MSU in wk2. Most likely a rematch on the red carpet is in order, with MSU being on the opposite bracket.

How about a "Brawl" National Championship Although, I don't think the Griz have a deep running playoff team this year Would be sweet though.

[native]

One thing however that does seem to be overlooked is if Montana wins, if the Griz are able to pull off the win (they are underdogs in this one i think...cant believe im saying this but i think they are this year) It would leave the Big Sky looking like this:

-Montana: 8-3 (6-2 in Big Sky Play)
-Montana State: 8-3 (6-2 in Big Sky Play)
-Eastern Washington: 9-2 (7-1 in Big Sky Play)

Now if this happens you will have 2 Big Sky schools at 8-3 with EWU taking the title with the overall better conference record. Personally i think if Montana finishes 8-3 that all three of the schools will get in with Montana and Montana State getting @ large bids with EWU getting the seed. Both the Cats and the Griz have better resumes then ODU or Liberty in my opinion. Not taking away from those teams, its just my opinion however.

Though in the eyes of the playoff committee, those teams would be:
EWU 8-2
UM 7-3
MSU 7-3
since non-DI wins do not count

don't know how that would stack up against other at-large hopefuls (Montana would be in, I'm sure. dunno about MSU though)

Even if the Grizz win the Montana Bowl, Montana State would still have the better resume, having beaten both Eastern Washington and Weber State while suffering only two FCS losses.

On the other hand, Montana would have three FCS losses, to EWU, WSU, and Cal Poly.

Both teams struggled on the road. MSU's lone FCS loss to date was suffered at Northern Arizona, and struggled into overtime before prevailing over Sac State and Idaho State. Montana met all three of its losses in away games and scraped by Portland State by two points.

[DetroitFlyer]

No matter how folks want to spin it, UD and JU are both looking better for an at large this season than in any other previous season. Liberty.... Lost to Robert Morris, lost to Costal Carolina, (I think, too lazy to look it up).... Better resume than two 10-1 teams, wishful thinking my friends.