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Here's the way I see it...

CAA
-No telling who will finish where, but your playoff teams are easy to predict for now
-Your top 5 teams are JMU, Towson ( ), Maine, UNH, and ODU. All of them are most likely to get to 8 DI wins. Richmond, Delaware, and W&M are both one loss away from elimination and most likely won't make it.

The SoCon
-Any scenario where GSU, ASU, and Wofford fail to reach 7 DI wins isn't likely. Samford and Chatty are playoff-caliber teams but are longshots. Of the games that are toss-ups there are few ways they could play out that they will get to 7 DI wins

The Big Sky
-Montana State will most likely get at least a share of the BSC title
-Montana will now most likely get to 7 DI wins
-I said it when it was 0-4, and I'll say it again...EWU will win out and sneak in

MVC
- NDSU and UNI are most likely not going to be eliminated
-Indiana State ( ) has a good chance of finishing with at least 8 wins

SLC
-Sam Houston has a commanding lead being undefeated in SLC play with all other teams having at least 3 losses
-probably no AL candidates

MEAC
-It's a two-way race between Norfolk State and NC A&T, and NSU will probably take it

OVC
-Jax State looks like a fairly safe bet at this point

Patriot
-Lehigh is clearly the best team in the PL.

Big South
-Liberty may not run the table in the Big South but will probably win the conference

NEC
-Albany is undefeated and has already beaten the second and third place NEC teams. hard to see them not winning the NEC

The Big South is pretty clear cut, but if LU doesn't run the table, they won't win the conference.

The only conceivable loss left is to SBU in NY, and that would give the Seawolves the tiebreaker.

But I agree, things are shaping up early. Tough to see where a dark horse could come from. Only issue is finding a 20th team, because there might only be 19 from your list.

7 wins is just a threshold. No guarantee on making the playoffs.

As an arrogant Wofford fan, this field does not scare me

grizzaholic wrote:7 wins is just a threshold. No guarantee on making the playoffs.

True, but if the Eagles end the season on a 7 game winning streak I would be surprised if the defending NC does not get an invite to the dance.

clawman wrote:

grizzaholic wrote:7 wins is just a threshold. No guarantee on making the playoffs.

True, but if the Eagles end the season on a 7 game winning streak I would be surprised if the defending NC does not get an invite to the dance.

THIS.

I think previous performance and RECENT performance weigh heavily on who gets in and who doesn't.

clawman wrote:

grizzaholic wrote:7 wins is just a threshold. No guarantee on making the playoffs.

True, but if the Eagles end the season on a 7 game winning streak I would be surprised if the defending NC does not get an invite to the dance.

All depends on who they have beat, and the amount of other teams from Power conferences with the same record but stronger SOS, just because you were there last year doesnt mean its an automatic back in with 7 wins if there is better options

If a 6-5 EWU is going against the Pioneer champ and a second place MEAC team, do they take the Eags then?

ToTheLeft wrote:If a 6-5 EWU is going against the Pioneer champ and a second place MEAC team, do they take the Eags then?

NO.

I think Montana showed us last season that the committee takes the benchmark for 7 D-1 wins seriously.

clawman wrote:

grizzaholic wrote:7 wins is just a threshold. No guarantee on making the playoffs.

True, but if the Eagles end the season on a 7 game winning streak I would be surprised if the defending NC does not get an invite to the dance.

I think they'll get in at 7-4, but I don't think they'll get in over an 8-3 team from the SoCon, CAA, Big Sky, SLC or MVC. We'll have to see how 8-3 at-larges come out of those 4 conferences.

∞∞∞ wrote:I think Montana showed us last season that the committee takes the benchmark for 7 D-1 wins seriously.

That, and not to play a broken record over here, but JMU last year proved that there will likely NEVER be a 6-5 playoff team. I guess, under certain circumstances (mainly attrition for playoff teams) ... a team might be an exception, but there has never been or likely never will be a team with a better 6-5 resume than JMU last year.

And to be clear, I am NOT saying JMU deserved to be in last year ... I'm just backing up the idea that a 6-5 team will never be in.

∞∞∞ wrote:I think Montana showed us last season that the committee takes the benchmark for 7 D-1 wins seriously.

Yup. And I think there is a good chance that UD may find that out this year. With the playoffs being expanded, it makes D-II games a really dumb idea.

In a 16 team field, you almost had to be 8-3 to get in, even if you won a game against a D-II you still had the 7 needed wins to make the playoffs.
Now that the playoffs have expanded 7-4 may be good enough, but if you beat a D-II (like UD did this year) you are not in the playoffs.

ToTheLeft wrote:If a 6-5 EWU is going against the Pioneer champ and a second place MEAC team, do they take the Eags then?

No

∞∞∞ wrote:I think Montana showed us last season that the committee takes the benchmark for 7 D-1 wins seriously.

This. I feel that Sac State needs to win out to have a shot. 7 wins is just leaving it up to the committee which is scary. Plenty of games between now and then.

Pwns wrote:Here's the way I see it...

CAA
-No telling who will finish where, but your playoff teams are easy to predict for now
-Your top 5 teams are JMU, Towson ( ), Maine, UNH, and ODU. All of them are most likely to get to 8 DI wins. Richmond, Delaware, and W&M are both one loss away from elimination and most likely won't make it.

Richmond has 3 DI wins (one FBS) and 5 games left so they can go 4-1 and make it to 7 DI wins.

The path to the playoffs is littered every year with teams that looked unbeatable through October, only to crash and burn down the stretch. I wager a handful of your 20 picks will be moaning about the woulda, coulda, shouldas by the time the brackets are announced.

Just went through each CAA team's remaining schedule and came up with the following. I literally went through and went with my "gut" first instinct on each pick, with a couple surprises:

JMU: 9-2 (7-1) - win out
Maine: 8-3 (6-2) - UR (L), Nova (W), Towson (W), Umass (W), UNH (L)
Towson: 8-3 (6-2) - WM (L), Delaware (W), Maine (L), UNH (W), URI (W)
WM: 8-3 (6-2) - win out
UR: 7-4 (4-4) - Maine (W), Umass (W), ODU (W), UD (W), WM (L)
UNH: 6-5 (4-4) - UMass (L), URI (W), JMU (L), Towson (L), Maine (W)
UD: 6-5 (4-4) - URI (W), Towson (L), Richmond (L), Villanova (W)
Umass: 6-5 (4-4) - UNH (W), UR (L), Villanova (W), Maine (L), JMU (L)
ODU: 6-5 (3-5) - Villanova (W), JMU (L), Richmond (L), WM (L)
URI: 1-10 (0-8) - lose out
Villanova: 1-10 (0-8) - lose out

Of course, one more win by UNH and they're in over UR ... and if Villanova or URI decide to win a game and play spoiler (always possible), we could see a WM/UR out of the playoffs.

UNH has the toughest road ahead ... and I really don't think they're all that good (said it before this weekend's results, just not sold on them) ... I was generous and gave them a win over Maine as their "upset" but I wouldn't be surprised if they just beat URI the rest of the way out. Also, Umass is going to play spoiler ... so they could beat JMU/Maine/UR and knock them down a win or out of the playoffs (in Richmond's case) ... I'm riding the hot hand with UR/WM ... I think both teams had some down play but aren't as bad as thought before this weekend. I think UR has been cursed by playing UNH/JMU/Towson to start their conference play and think they'll turn it around late ... Corp/Grayson are too good to let them lose many games.

∞∞∞ wrote:I think Montana showed us last season that the committee takes the benchmark for 7 D-1 wins seriously.

you are correct since montana was 6-4 vs DI. non DI games you win do not factor in. might as well have been no game played.

Pwns wrote:Here's the way I see it...

CAA
-No telling who will finish where, but your playoff teams are easy to predict for now
-Your top 5 teams are JMU, Towson ( ), Maine, UNH, and ODU. All of them are most likely to get to 8 DI wins. Richmond, Delaware, and W&M are both one loss away from elimination and most likely won't make it.

I wouldn't bet on ODU getting to 8 wins, its gonna be very VERY tough. I wouldn't bet on them even getting to 7 wins.

Clearing up? I don't think so.

Just take the Big Sky as an example. As far as I'm concerned, we only have ONE lead-pipe cinch right now: MSU. Then we have about three or four who have a CHANCE (but a couple of those are mutually exclusive, IMO). We'll probably end up with three and MAYBE four (if we're lucky). But the other leagues probably have similar issues, even if the numbers are different.

Illinois State is coming off a 28-3 win over South Dakota. They have 3 losses and games against Indiana State, Southern Illinois, Northern Iowa, and Western Illinois. 3-1 in the lsat 4 would make this a definite bubble team. It is not clearing up.

Pwns wrote:Here's the way I see it...

CAA
-No telling who will finish where, but your playoff teams are easy to predict for now
-Your top 5 teams are JMU, Towson ( ), Maine, UNH, and ODU. All of them are most likely to get to 8 DI wins. Richmond, Delaware, and W&M are both one loss away from elimination and most likely won't make it.

The SoCon
-Any scenario where GSU, ASU, and Wofford fail to reach 7 DI wins isn't likely. Samford and Chatty are playoff-caliber teams but are longshots. Of the games that are toss-ups there are few ways they could play out that they will get to 7 DI wins

The Big Sky
-Montana State will most likely get at least a share of the BSC title
-Montana will now most likely get to 7 DI wins
-I said it when it was 0-4, and I'll say it again...EWU will win out and sneak in

MVC
- NDSU and UNI are most likely not going to be eliminated
-Indiana State ( ) has a good chance of finishing with at least 8 wins

SLC
-Sam Houston has a commanding lead being undefeated in SLC play with all other teams having at least 3 losses
-probably no AL candidates

MEAC
-It's a two-way race between Norfolk State and NC A&T, and NSU will probably take it

OVC
-Jax State looks like a fairly safe bet at this point

Patriot
-Lehigh is clearly the best team in the PL.

Big South
-Liberty may not run the table in the Big South but will probably win the conference

NEC
-Albany is undefeated and has already beaten the second and third place NEC teams. hard to see them not winning the NEC

I agree about Norfolk they will take A&T too bad the SWAC no longer has a automatic playoff bid would love to what Jackson St would do outside the league if they were eligible.In the OVC don't sleep on the Tigers of Tennessee St they pulled a shocker on Tennessee Tech winning a 42-40 shootout recently

youngterrier wrote:As an arrogant Wofford fan, this field does not scare me

That is why they play the game

dal4018 wrote: too bad the SWAC no longer has a automatic playoff bid would love to what Jackson St would do outside the league if they were eligible.

Jackson State is 0-12 in the playoffs. They came to W&M in '96 for the first round as a 10-1 #8 team and lost 45-6. With the current level of play in the SWAC I doubt they'd fare much better.