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I've put together a page that shows every game left this season for FBS and FCS schools and predicts a winner and total score for each game. It's based on my current power rankings for each team. Here it is:

http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/ncaafprojections" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I'll update it each week as the rankings change. I thought some would be interested

I can understand every result for El Cid except the last one. You have Furman winning by a touchdown. Furman might well improve greatly over the season, and we do play on their home turf, but based on just the last two weeks' results I think I would call that one for The Citadel if the game was played today.

Old Dominion with just a one point loss at JMU. Hhhhmmmmmm.

The numbers will change as more data is gathered. As of right now that's how my current number projects the games. It's still very early in the season and I don't have a ton of data to work with.

You both could be right, and my numbers could change, by the time those games are played.

EWU OVER UM. its legit!

EWU DOESNT LOSE A GAME!!!! Its def legit!!!!!!!

ebemiss wrote:The numbers will change as more data is gathered. As of right now that's how my current number projects the games. It's still very early in the season and I don't have a ton of data to work with.

You both could be right, and my numbers could change, by the time those games are played.

I'm not disagreeing with you at all. I think that is the way it should be predicted based on the up to the minute stats.
I'm just wondering if I would take that 10-1 record now, if offered, and go straight to the playoffs or roll the dice and play it out to see if an undefeated season can be achieved. Obviously the smart bet is to take the 10-1 and move on, but that undefeated season would be nice. Hhhhmmmmm.

SUU projected to go 6-2:

Southern Utah 35.49 Portland St. 30.37
Montana St. 28.26 Southern Utah 28.98
Sacramento St. 25.5 Southern Utah 34.59
Southern Utah 24.01 Montana 33.43
Weber St. 23.8 Southern Utah 29.81
Eastern Wash. 28.43 Southern Utah 25.44
Southern Utah 26.68 North Dakota 25.52
Southern Utah 26.44 Northern Arizona 26.38


Weber State projected to go 5-4:

McNeese St. 22.26 Weber St. 26.16
Eastern Wash. 27.23 Weber St. 21.23
Weber St. 25.4 UC Davis 28.28
Cal Poly 26 Weber St. 26.67
Weber St. 27.38 Sacramento St. 27.29
Weber St. 23.8 Southern Utah 29.81
Montana 29.22 Weber St. 22.81
Northern Colorado 18.61 Weber St. 33.64
Weber St. 30.39 Idaho St. 20.52

ebemiss wrote:The numbers will change as more data is gathered. As of right now that's how my current number projects the games. It's still very early in the season and I don't have a ton of data to work with.

You both could be right, and my numbers could change, by the time those games are played.

I agree, and I know it's just the math, but with Furman at 0-2 versus a Top half Big South and a POSSIBLE top half SoCon team, and El Cid 2-0 against a bottom half Big South and a preseason #3 in the nation.... I think your algorithm is heavily "end of season" weighted. Or something.

All that being said, we usually play GSU close, and could well be 6-5 at the end of the season, with losses to Sammy and Furman, like you predict. I'm still just not sold on our team yet, but right now I think we beat Furple.

Mike Johnson wrote:SUU projected to go 6-2:

Southern Utah 35.49 Portland St. 30.37
Montana St. 28.26 Southern Utah 28.98
Sacramento St. 25.5 Southern Utah 34.59
Southern Utah 24.01 Montana 33.43
Weber St. 23.8 Southern Utah 29.81
Eastern Wash. 28.43 Southern Utah 25.44
Southern Utah 26.68 North Dakota 25.52
Southern Utah 26.44 Northern Arizona 26.38


Weber State projected to go 5-4:

McNeese St. 22.26 Weber St. 26.16
Eastern Wash. 27.23 Weber St. 21.23
Weber St. 25.4 UC Davis 28.28
Cal Poly 26 Weber St. 26.67
Weber St. 27.38 Sacramento St. 27.29
Weber St. 23.8 Southern Utah 29.81
Montana 29.22 Weber St. 22.81
Northern Colorado 18.61 Weber St. 33.64
Weber St. 30.39 Idaho St. 20.52

SUU has already played 3 games or only has 10 on the schedule?

BlackFalkin wrote:EWU DOESNT LOSE A GAME!!!! Its def legit!!!!!!!

Whoa. Your computer model does not like us at all. Nor does Massey's. His had us at a 19% chance to beat Montana. Yours has us going .500 in the conference. No fucking way.

Is there a way for you to program a 'results' section of the data?

I'm interested in seeing how accurate your predictions are throughout the season and how things change, but if it requires me to scan through it like I did to find the UD games, my interest will probably wane.

Delaware 10-1, I'd take that.

ebemiss wrote:The numbers will change as more data is gathered. As of right now that's how my current number projects the games. It's still very early in the season and I don't have a ton of data to work with.

You both could be right, and my numbers could change, by the time those games are played.

Will you track how you did?

Is it sad that I would take the 4 Big Sky wins for Davis, after what i saw in the 2nd half against San Jose St. on Saturday. Especially, if that includes a win over Sucktown.

9-2, I'll take it

89Hen wrote:

Will you track how you did?

I have my FBS vs FBS games tracked here:

http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;

I don't have my FCS vs FBS or FCS vs FCS games tracked anywhere. You have the numbers for this week if anyone wants to keep track of them. It's a ton of work for me just updating the teams from week to week, I'll try but no promises. That's the reason why I post my fbs projections on that site above because they calculate the wins/losses, I just provide my rankings.

Also any games vs D2 schools aren't likely to be on this schedule as well, that may skew your projected won/loss record.

So the computers on average are 70% correct on straight up? No offense, but that's pretty weak.

SoCalAg wrote:Is it sad that I would take the 4 Big Sky wins for Davis, after what i saw in the 2nd half against San Jose St. on Saturday. Especially, if that includes a win over Sucktown.

Ditto. Poor scheduling gives us Montana State for Homecoming - not a happy thought. I think we will get a little better idea of how our season is going to end up after the next two games for UC Davis - SDSU and Cal Poly, both away.

89Hen wrote:So the computers on average are 70% correct on straight up? No offense, but that's pretty weak.

Weak compared to what? Post your picks for every game every week, then judge. No offense.

ebemiss wrote:

89Hen wrote:So the computers on average are 70% correct on straight up? No offense, but that's pretty weak.

Weak compared to what? Post your picks for every game every week, then judge. No offense.

I run a pick'em game for on this site (and AGS)....Out of 2,444 submitted picks thus far this season (first two weeks of AGS top 25 poll and random games I picked) the average correct score is 75%.

I'll get you a total after the season if you would like...as well as calculating the % of correct post season participants that were submitted in August...

clenz wrote:

ebemiss wrote:
Weak compared to what? Post your picks for every game every week, then judge. No offense.

I run a pick'em game for on this site (and AGS)....Out of 2,444 submitted picks thus far this season (first two weeks of AGS top 25 poll and random games I picked) the average correct score is 75%.

I'll get you a total after the season if you would like...as well as calculating the % of correct post season participants that were submitted in August...

That sounds great. Use my numbers for the games you post every week to compare to your users submitted picks. Just give me the link for the picks to follow along, just so I know which games you are tracking.

Check my sig. The pick em form for the games I'm using...the totals sheet for the totals

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Harvard at 10-0! He has us squeaking by in the two road games I have as the most likely losses: at Brown and at Penn.