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I'd argue the most unsure game in the bracket is Ill State vs. App State but I agree this game could honestly go either way. Excited to see what happens.

BisoNation wrote:I'd argue the most unsure game in the bracket is Ill State vs. App State but I agree this game could honestly go either way. Excited to see what happens.

App State by 17.

Stony Brook by 4.

SB by 7. Fool me three times...

That being said I would really like MSU to win so I can go to a CP/SHSU game

Bozeman is a hard place to play. I think it gives the Bobcats a real advantage over an East Coast opponent. Even if this game was a toss-up (and I don't believe it is...), that might be the difference. I expect Montana State to win by a decent margin.

If not, so be it. I've watched Stony play a couple of games already this season and I really enjoy their game.

LDopaPDX wrote:Bozeman is a hard place to play. I think it gives the Bobcats a real advantage over an East Coast opponent. Even if this game was a toss-up (and I don't believe it is...), that might be the difference. I expect Montana State to win by a decent margin.

If not, so be it. I've watched Stony play a couple of games already this season and I really enjoy their game.

Yeah I checked out a couple of SBU's games on espn3, their offense is about as exciting as watching mud dry, but it is effective. I think MSU has enough run stoppers to limit them and I think MSU's offense will score enough that SBU wont be able to keep up.

AZGrizFan wrote:

BisoNation wrote:I'd argue the most unsure game in the bracket is Ill State vs. App State but I agree this game could honestly go either way. Excited to see what happens.

App State by 17.

Stony Brook by 4.

No chance App State wins by 17 over Ill State, not with how questionable their defense is.

cats2506 wrote:

LDopaPDX wrote:Bozeman is a hard place to play. I think it gives the Bobcats a real advantage over an East Coast opponent. Even if this game was a toss-up (and I don't believe it is...), that might be the difference. I expect Montana State to win by a decent margin.

If not, so be it. I've watched Stony play a couple of games already this season and I really enjoy their game.

Yeah I checked out a couple of SBU's games on espn3, their offense is about as exciting as watching mud dry, but it is effective. I think MSU has enough run stoppers to limit them and I think MSU's offense will score enough that SBU wont be able to keep up.

Nah, they pound on you. I like that kind of football. I wish Eastern could do more of that. If our passing game had the balance of a power rushing game, shoot, we'd be fantastic.

But you're right, I think Montana State is good enough against the run to make life extremely difficult for the Seawolves.

Brock Landers wrote:SB by 7. Fool me three times...

That being said I would really like MSU to win so I can go to a CP/SHSU game

Welcome to the "Well, any playoff football is better than no playoff football" club.

This won't be a cakewalk EITHER way by any stretch, but I see MSU winning....

As much as it pains me, I think MSU vs Stony Brook is going to be like Ahab finally getting his white whale.

MSU is going to go berserker and win by 17.

Have I mentioned I loathe my avatar.

This game largely comes down to whether MSU's D-Line will finally show up in a playoff game or not. They did show up big against the Griz & their strong running game, though (unlike last year), so that's enough for me to favor them. Montana State's O-Line is nothing special, but neither is Stony Brook's D-Line so it doesn't look like the Seawolves will be able to take advantage of that relative weakness. The home field & a more balanced offense will lead the Bobcats to the quarterfinals.

Here's my assessment of the matchups & my pick for the game:

• • • Quarterbacks -- Montana St.
      
      Running Backs - Stony Brook
      
      Receivers/TEs - Montana St.
      
      Offensive Line - Stony Brook
      
      
      Defensive Line - Montana St.
      
      Linebackers --- Montana St.
      
      Secondary ---- Montana St.
      
      
      Kicking ------ Stony Brook
      
      Punting ------ Montana St.
      
      Return Teams - Montana St.
      
      Kickoffs ------ Stony Brook
      
      
      
      
      
      • Stony Brook 20-27 Montana St.

Mvemjsunpx wrote: Kicking ------ Stony Brook

Punting ------ Montana St.

Return Teams - Montana St.

Kickoffs ------ Stony Brook

Kind of wondering what you base this on

Perez has a higher FG percentage. so I would have thought that might warrent the "Kicking" stat

Also Silva has a longer average on kickoffs, and a much higher percentage of touchbacks, you would think that would be the basis for "Kickoffs", also MSU has lower net returns on kickoffs.

cats2506 wrote:

Mvemjsunpx wrote: Kicking ------ Stony Brook

Punting ------ Montana St.

Return Teams - Montana St.

Kickoffs ------ Stony Brook

Kind of wondering what you base this on

Perez has a higher FG percentage. so I would have thought that might warrent the "Kicking" stat

Also Silva has a longer average on kickoffs, and a much higher percentage of touchbacks, you would think that would be the basis for "Kickoffs", also MSU has lower net returns on kickoffs.

For kicking, I thought the field goal stats were roughly equal. The difference was on PATs, where SBU has missed just 1 while the Bobcats have missed 5.

SBU has the better net on kickoffs (43.7 vs. 41.4). The kickoff distance is definitely better for MSU, but the Seawolves are allowing a stifling 13.7 yards-per-return (compared to 21.6 for the 'Cats).

SuperHornet wrote:This won't be a cakewalk EITHER way by any stretch, but I see MSU winning....

Me too. If SB wins, I'll hop on their bandwagon, though!

SB missed FG, Bobcats get it back with 2 mins left in the first.

BIG pass by MSU, TD

7-0 Cats.

MSU picks up a fumble by #5 of SB.

And now McGhee fumbles but MSU recovers somehow.

Montana State 13-3

8 minutes left in the 3rd quarter. SB has the ball on their own 30

Fumble by SB, MSU has the ball at their own 40.

For a big crowd, MSU fans are extremely quiet

danefan wrote:For a big crowd, MSU fans are extremely quiet

Because it isn't cold.

TD SB

I've been watching for the last few minutes. Something interesting has stood out. For a few plays in a row, MSU was aligning strong left to the short side. They REALLY wanted to run short side. SBU set their DL over, and MSU got big yardage. On the next play, SBU figured an under set would let them catch the ball carrier from behind. They got in, but just missed, and the Bobcats STILL got big yardage to the short side.

If you're giving up yardage like that at the end of the game no matter how you set your defense, you are NOT going to win.

MSU is going to the quarterfinals....

should be a fumble by SB and MSU ball with 45 seconds left.