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Will North Dakota St pull a 3 peat???

I desperately hope not, but I wouldn't put it past them. They are very quickly turning into the Mount Union/Grand Valley State of FCS, and I don't like that very much.

SuperHornet wrote:I desperately hope not, but I wouldn't put it past them. They are very quickly turning into the Mount Union/Grand Valley State of FCS, and I don't like that very much.

How about the Roll Tide of our level!!!Who will put a stop to this potential idea of a 3 peat!!!Doesn't seem like Sam Houston is capable???

I'd like for Sac to do it, but good luck on THAT happening any time soon! We gotta have a consistent season and make the playoffs first.

Unfortunately, when I think of that, Jim Mora, Sr., pops into my mind.

SuperHornet wrote:I'd like for Sac to do it, but good luck on THAT happening any time soon! We gotta have a consistent season and make the playoffs first.

Unfortunately, when I think of that, Jim Mora, Sr., pops into my mind.

Needless to say your not a fan of the Mora coaching style?? I remember his offensive philosophy in New Orleans KISS ( Keep It Simple Stupid).

dal4018 wrote:Will North Dakota St pull a 3 peat???

Probably

CAA is down and losing their top (at the moment) program, App has a new coach and a recent bizzare history of getting blown out at home in the playoffs, Wofford is always on the road in the playoffs, Chattanooga is incapable of being consistent or making the playoffs, they have Sam Houston's number, Montana has no QB and a lame duck coaching staff that has appeared hopelessly lost, Montana State seems incapable of not getting destroyed in the playoffs, EWU will be rebuilding, etc.

I imagine Georgia Southern is the biggest threat. Or the MVFC needs to pick them off a couple times and prevent them from having home field throughout the playoffs.

Brock Landers wrote:I imagine Georgia Southern is the biggest threat. Or the MVFC needs to pick them off a couple times and prevent them from having home field throughout the playoffs.

GSU was the best team NDSU played this year outside the conference. The MVFC will be tough again with SDSU having a lot of returning players, SIU looks to be moving up, and UNI will be back. YSU and Ill St will also complete. 2013 is the year the Bison were suppose to make a run at the title with a strong group of Juniors returning. A couple losses though and they could have a playoff road game. Kansas State will be a very tough game to win, Montana St could surprise, and then conference play where NDSU has lost a game in each of the last couple seasons.

I think they certainly have a shot because they have a lot coming back. On the other hand I think that the odds are less than 50:50. They had two very close games in the playoffs this year. One especially could have gone either way. Things worked out where it went NDSU's way.

To me before any football game starts it's a probability proposition. So before a playoff tournament starts lets say you're the best team. Let's say you're going to end up playing four teams. As it works out you're going to have a 90% chance of beating the first one, and 85% chance of beating the second one, an 80% chance of beating the third one, and a 75% chance of beating the fourth one. You're pretty much better than any individual team. The worst set of odds you have in any one game is 3:1. Three times as likely to win as you are to lose.

But, before you start the first game, your probability of winning all four without losing somewhere along the way is 0.90 x 0.85 x 0.80 x 0.75 = 0.459. You've got a 45.9% chance. Less than 50:50.

As we anticipate next season now calculating the actual probability in concept would be a lot more complicated than that. You'd have to consider every possible regular season set of outcomes and every possible set of post season outcomes including every possible set of teams NDSU might play in the playoffs. Also we don't actually know the probability that NDSU will win any one game against any one team. But that's the principle. Even if you're the best team and going into any one game the odds are going to be in your favor by at least 3:1 and are usually a lot better than that, when you start talking about getting through a regular season with results good enough to make the playoffs, hopefully getting a first round bye, hopefully getting a high seed, and getting through 4 or 5 games against playoff caliber teams without stumbling, winning the championship is still less than a 50:50 proposition. And if you were betting you'd do well to bet that any one team people pick will not win the championship regardless of who that team is. You might lose doing that a few times over the years but you'd win most of the time.

dal4018 wrote:

SuperHornet wrote:I'd like for Sac to do it, but good luck on THAT happening any time soon! We gotta have a consistent season and make the playoffs first.

Unfortunately, when I think of that, Jim Mora, Sr., pops into my mind.

Needless to say your not a fan of the Mora coaching style?? I remember his offensive philosophy in New Orleans KISS ( Keep It Simple Stupid).

It isn't Mora's coaching style that comes to mind.
http://youtu.be/Qwq7BYOnDrM" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
[youtube]http://youtu.be/Qwq7BYOnDrM[/youtube]

That's EXACTLY where I was headed with that.....

JohnStOnge wrote:I think they certainly have a shot because they have a lot coming back. On the other hand I think that the odds are less than 50:50. They had two very close games in the playoffs this year. One especially could have gone either way. Things worked out where it went NDSU's way.

To me before any football game starts it's a probability proposition. So before a playoff tournament starts lets say you're the best team. Let's say you're going to end up playing four teams. As it works out you're going to have a 90% chance of beating the first one, and 85% chance of beating the second one, an 80% chance of beating the third one, and a 75% chance of beating the fourth one. You're pretty much better than any individual team. The worst set of odds you have in any one game is 3:1. Three times as likely to win as you are to lose.

But, before you start the first game, your probability of winning all four without losing somewhere along the way is 0.90 x 0.85 x 0.80 x 0.75 = 0.459. You've got a 45.9% chance. Less than 50:50.

As we anticipate next season now calculating the actual probability in concept would be a lot more complicated than that. You'd have to consider every possible regular season set of outcomes and every possible set of post season outcomes including every possible set of teams NDSU might play in the playoffs. Also we don't actually know the probability that NDSU will win any one game against any one team. But that's the principle. Even if you're the best team and going into any one game the odds are going to be in your favor by at least 3:1 and are usually a lot better than that, when you start talking about getting through a regular season with results good enough to make the playoffs, hopefully getting a first round bye, hopefully getting a high seed, and getting through 4 or 5 games against playoff caliber teams without stumbling, winning the championship is still less than a 50:50 proposition. And if you were betting you'd do well to bet that any one team people pick will not win the championship regardless of who that team is. You might lose doing that a few times over the years but you'd win most of the time.

And that, ladies and gentlemen, is what we call "pulling numbers out of your ass."

Brock Landers wrote:

dal4018 wrote:Will North Dakota St pull a 3 peat???

Probably

CAA is down and losing their top (at the moment) program, App has a new coach and a recent bizzare history of getting blown out at home in the playoffs, Wofford is always on the road in the playoffs, Chattanooga is incapable of being consistent or making the playoffs, they have Sam Houston's number, Montana has no QB and a lame duck coaching staff that has appeared hopelessly lost, Montana State seems incapable of not getting destroyed in the playoffs, EWU will be rebuilding, etc.

I imagine Georgia Southern is the biggest threat. Or the MVFC needs to pick them off a couple times and prevent them from having home field throughout the playoffs.

Our losses at WR, LB, and DE stand out, but there's quite a bit of depth and talent behind them. The schedule is what's going to make this a rebuilding year.

UAalum72 wrote:

dal4018 wrote:Needless to say your not a fan of the Mora coaching style?? I remember his offensive philosophy in New Orleans KISS ( Keep It Simple Stupid).

It isn't Mora's coaching style that comes to mind.
http://youtu.be/Qwq7BYOnDrM" onclick="window.open(this.href);return false;
[youtube]http://youtu.be/Qwq7BYOnDrM[/youtube]

Okay point taken that 6 interception performance by Manning proved he is human that vs Buffalo correct???

With 20/22 starters returning, the Bison have a very good chance of making a 3-peat.

The Valley will be tough in '13...again.

With Western Carolina supposedly backing out of their game with the Bison, the Bison will need to find another OCC game.

I'm looking forward to Montana State coming to Fargo. Personally I don't think the Cats will make it much of a game but you never know.

The Bison will be tough to beat in '13. K State will have their hands full.

I think the only team that might be able to handle them is GaSo right now. But you never know someone may appear as a challenger, but as of right now they should clean sweep to the 2nd 3 peat.

kalm wrote:

Brock Landers wrote: Probably

CAA is down and losing their top (at the moment) program, App has a new coach and a recent bizzare history of getting blown out at home in the playoffs, Wofford is always on the road in the playoffs, Chattanooga is incapable of being consistent or making the playoffs, they have Sam Houston's number, Montana has no QB and a lame duck coaching staff that has appeared hopelessly lost, Montana State seems incapable of not getting destroyed in the playoffs, EWU will be rebuilding, etc.

I imagine Georgia Southern is the biggest threat. Or the MVFC needs to pick them off a couple times and prevent them from having home field throughout the playoffs.

Our losses at WR, LB, and DE stand out, but there's quite a bit of depth and talent behind them. The schedule is what's going to make this a rebuilding year.

Can't wait to the recruits that are coming this fall.Never knew Ga.Southern depended on the position of WR seeing as how they are a run-oriented squad.I consider them to be the Nebraska of the FCS.

kalm wrote:

Brock Landers wrote: Probably

CAA is down and losing their top (at the moment) program, App has a new coach and a recent bizzare history of getting blown out at home in the playoffs, Wofford is always on the road in the playoffs, Chattanooga is incapable of being consistent or making the playoffs, they have Sam Houston's number, Montana has no QB and a lame duck coaching staff that has appeared hopelessly lost, Montana State seems incapable of not getting destroyed in the playoffs, EWU will be rebuilding, etc.

I imagine Georgia Southern is the biggest threat. Or the MVFC needs to pick them off a couple times and prevent them from having home field throughout the playoffs.

Our losses at WR, LB, and DE stand out, but there's quite a bit of depth and talent behind them. The schedule is what's going to make this a rebuilding year.

We don't rebuild, we re-load.

We obviously won't be as talented at WR next season, but we've got a lot of young talent who will step up. We'll also have 3-4 very experienced backs and an experienced O-Line which will help the running game. And of course, there's Adams who is a game-changer in his own right.


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Bison Fan in NW MN wrote:With 20/22 starters returning, the Bison have a very good chance of making a 3-peat.

The Valley will be tough in '13...again.

With Western Carolina supposedly backing out of their game with the Bison, the Bison will need to find another OCC game.

I'm looking forward to Montana State coming to Fargo. Personally I don't think the Cats will make it much of a game but you never know.

The Bison will be tough to beat in '13. K State will have their hands full.

You make Lakes Bison look like Nick Sabin.


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dal4018 wrote:

kalm wrote:
Our losses at WR, LB, and DE stand out, but there's quite a bit of depth and talent behind them. The schedule is what's going to make this a rebuilding year.

Can't wait to the recruits that are coming this fall.Never knew Ga.Southern depended on the position of WR seeing as how they are a run-oriented squad.I consider them to be the Nebraska of the FCS.

I don't think he's talking about GSU. We don't lose anything at wideout, really. Williford was a good blocker, but the two big playmakers are returning, and Zach Walker, in any other offense, is an AA. We lose Dubose at DE, but return really two starters in Gebhardt and Mention. Mention was on the field a ton this year. We lose one LB, who was a walk on, and only played his senior year, mainly do to Rowe being suspended, who we get back for his senior campaign. He will be our best defensive player in 2013

eagleskins wrote:

dal4018 wrote:Can't wait to the recruits that are coming this fall.Never knew Ga.Southern depended on the position of WR seeing as how they are a run-oriented squad.I consider them to be the Nebraska of the FCS.

I don't think he's talking about GSU. We don't lose anything at wideout, really. Williford was a good blocker, but the two big playmakers are returning, and Zach Walker, in any other offense, is an AA. We lose Dubose at DE, but return really two starters in Gebhardt and Mention. Mention was on the field a ton this year. We lose one LB, who was a walk on, and only played his senior year, mainly do to Rowe being suspended, who we get back for his senior campaign. He will be our best defensive player in 2013

Okay who was he referring to if it wasn't Ga.Southern?

eagleskins wrote:

dal4018 wrote:Can't wait to the recruits that are coming this fall.Never knew Ga.Southern depended on the position of WR seeing as how they are a run-oriented squad.I consider them to be the Nebraska of the FCS.

I don't think he's talking about GSU. We don't lose anything at wideout, really. Williford was a good blocker, but the two big playmakers are returning, and Zach Walker, in any other offense, is an AA. We lose Dubose at DE, but return really two starters in Gebhardt and Mention. Mention was on the field a ton this year. We lose one LB, who was a walk on, and only played his senior year, mainly do to Rowe being suspended, who we get back for his senior campaign. He will be our best defensive player in 2013

Williford is huge 6-4 205 where did you find him if he were at a pass happy school like Jackson St he would definitely be AA material!!!Walker at 6-1 185 has decent size he should put in for a transfer.

dal4018 wrote:

eagleskins wrote:
I don't think he's talking about GSU. We don't lose anything at wideout, really. Williford was a good blocker, but the two big playmakers are returning, and Zach Walker, in any other offense, is an AA. We lose Dubose at DE, but return really two starters in Gebhardt and Mention. Mention was on the field a ton this year. We lose one LB, who was a walk on, and only played his senior year, mainly do to Rowe being suspended, who we get back for his senior campaign. He will be our best defensive player in 2013

Okay who was he referring to if it wasn't Ga.Southern?

Eastern Washington.

EWURanger wrote:

Bison Fan in NW MN wrote:With 20/22 starters returning, the Bison have a very good chance of making a 3-peat.

The Valley will be tough in '13...again.

With Western Carolina supposedly backing out of their game with the Bison, the Bison will need to find another OCC game.

I'm looking forward to Montana State coming to Fargo. Personally I don't think the Cats will make it much of a game but you never know.

The Bison will be tough to beat in '13. K State will have their hands full.

You make Lakes Bison look like Nick Sabin.


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There was nothing outlandish I said in that post.

The Bison will be tough to beat next year.

dal4018 wrote:

eagleskins wrote:
I don't think he's talking about GSU. We don't lose anything at wideout, really. Williford was a good blocker, but the two big playmakers are returning, and Zach Walker, in any other offense, is an AA. We lose Dubose at DE, but return really two starters in Gebhardt and Mention. Mention was on the field a ton this year. We lose one LB, who was a walk on, and only played his senior year, mainly do to Rowe being suspended, who we get back for his senior campaign. He will be our best defensive player in 2013

Williford is huge 6-4 205 where did you find him if he were at a pass happy school like Jackson St he would definitely be AA material!!!Walker at 6-1 185 has decent size he should put in for a transfer.

Great blocker, but he wouldn't have been an AA at an NAIA school.

UNI88 wrote:

dal4018 wrote:Okay who was he referring to if it wasn't Ga.Southern?

Eastern Washington.

Okay thanks.