Week 11 CAA Prediction Thread

[bluehenbillk]

UNH 41 URI 12 Wildcats could name score honestly
UR 24 Maine 17 Will be closer than you think
StB 23 JMU 17 Bad set-up for the streaking Dukes
W&M 37 Elon 17 Not very close
UD 23 ALB 16 One last win for the Hens
VU 42 TU 14 Bad week to catch Nova

[BDKJMU]

Figured no reason to start a CAA playoff picture thread, so will add it here. The magic number to likely get in out of the CAA, which is the 2nd strongest conference, is 8 Div I wins (only SBU played a Div II), except for Albany, who didn’t play a I-A, its probably 9 wins, as 4 I-AA losses at 8-4/4-4 wouldn’t likely get them in. 7 of the 12 CAA teams are still mathematically alive.

Must win 1 of 3 to be a lock at 8-3, 2 of 3 to be likely seed at 9-2, win out for top 3 seed at 10-1:
UNH (7-1/5-0). Remaining @ URI, UD, @ Maine.

Win 1 of 3 to get to 8-4, win out for likely seed at 10-2:
UR (7-2/4-1). Remaining @ Maine, JMU, @ W&M
VU: (7-2/4-1). Remaining: TU, Albany, @ UD

Win 2 of 3 to get to 8-4:
JMU (6-3/3-2). Remaining: @ SBU, @ UR, Elon

Win out to get in at 8-4 (9-3 Albany):
W&M (5-4/2-3). Remaining: Elon, @ TU, UR
UD (5-4/3-2). Remaining: @ Albany, @ UNH, VU
Albany (6-3/2-3). Remaining: UD, @ VU, @ SBU

Eliminated from Playoff contention:
SBU (4-5/3-2)
Maine (3-5/2-3)
TU (4-5/2-3)
Elon (1-8/0-5)
URI (0-9/0-5)

[BDKJMU]

UNH (7-1/5-0) @ URI (0-9/0-5) 12:30 PM
UNH 49, URI 7. Blowout. Most lopsided all CAA matchup on paper this season.

UR (7-2/4-1) @ Maine (3-5/2-3) 12:30 PM TV: Fox College Sports.
UR 24, Maine 20. Trap game for UR. Coming off big win upset win over VU, on road, Maine coming off bye, big showdown with JMU (if JMU beats SBU) the following week.

JMU (6-3/3-2) @ SBU (4-5/3-2) 1:00 PM.
JMU 27, SBU 24. Trap game for JMU. Coming off big win, on road, SBU coming off bye, huge showdown with UR the following week.

Elon (1-8/0-5) @ W&M (5-4/2-3) 3:30 PM TV:CSN-MA+, TCN-P (4:00 JIP), SNY, CSN-HOU, CSN-BA.
W&M 35, Elon 10

UD (5-4/3-2) @ Albany (6-3/2-3) 3:30 PM.
UD 24, Albany 20. Rootin for the Hens in this one. If JMU is 8-4 come Nov 22, would help if UD was 7-5 or 6-6 so JMU’s OT loss to them won’t be considered a bad loss.

TU (4-5/2-3) @ VU (7-2/4-1) 7:00 PM.
VU 38, TU 17. VU should bounce back after their tough loss @ UR.

Byes: None

[89Hen]

Must win 1 of 3 to be a lock at 8-3, 2 of 3 to be likely seed at 9-2, win out for top 3 seed at 10-1:
UNH (7-1/5-0). Remaining @ URI, UD, @ Maine.

Win 1 of 3 to get to 8-4, win out for likely seed at 10-2:
UR (7-2/4-1). Remaining @ Maine, JMU, @ W&M
VU: (7-2/4-1). Remaining: TU, Albany, @ UD

If you held my hand to a fire, I'd have to wager on all three winning out.

[bluehenbillk]

Must win 1 of 3 to be a lock at 8-3, 2 of 3 to be likely seed at 9-2, win out for top 3 seed at 10-1:
UNH (7-1/5-0). Remaining @ URI, UD, @ Maine.

Win 1 of 3 to get to 8-4, win out for likely seed at 10-2:
UR (7-2/4-1). Remaining @ Maine, JMU, @ W&M
VU: (7-2/4-1). Remaining: TU, Albany, @ UD

If you held my hand to a fire, I'd have to wager on all three winning out.

I agree 100%

[BDKJMU]

If you held my hand to a fire, I'd have to wager on all three winning out.

I agree 100%

I would agree on UNH and VU, but not UR. Following their big upset win over VU, they have a trap game @ Maine, who's coming off a bye week, followed by 2 very tough back to back games, one of them a huge rivalry game to end the regular season.

[BDKJMU]

Damn CAA screwed JMU with the schedule
9/20 @ VU, VU coming off a bye.
9/27 vs UD, UD coming off a bye.
11/8 @ SBU, SBU coming off of a bye.
10/25 @ UNCC when both teams were coming off of a bye

That should avg about once per season, happen at most twice. I bet most of the other CAA teams it happens once to, with maybe a couple none or twice. 1st time its ever happened 4 times in a season to JMU. Probably cost JMU in their OT loss to UD, and might cost JMU this weekend @ SBU.

[89Hen]

I agree 100%

I would agree on UNH and VU, but not UR. Following their big upset win over VU, they have a trap game @ Maine, who's coming off a bye week, followed by 2 very tough back to back games, one of them a huge rivalry game to end the regular season.

I'd be seriously shocked to Maine beat Richmond.

[BDKJMU]

I would agree on UNH and VU, but not UR. Following their big upset win over VU, they have a trap game @ Maine, who's coming off a bye week, followed by 2 very tough back to back games, one of them a huge rivalry game to end the regular season.

I'd be seriously shocked to Maine beat Richmond.

I would only be mildly surprised but not shocked. 5 factors:
-The #1 time for letdowns is after a big upset win, no matter who you're playing the next week.
-Maine has a losing record, which will further increase the odds of a letdown. UR players might have a tendency to not focus as much as they would for a ranked opponent, & Maine isn't on the level of Elon or URI suckitude.
-Maine is coming off a bye week, which often means slow starts but overall how much is that worth? +3.5?
-Long trip for UR to practically Canada. That is +3.5 for Maine/-3.5 for UR.
-UR has a potential very big game the following week vs JMU.

UR normally this year would beat Maine by around 3 TDs I think, and beats them 8-9 times out of 10. This might be one of those 1-2 times..

JMU has a similar situation @ SBU. Has me worried.

[bluehenbillk]

I could see both Maine & Stony Brook knocking off teams with better records this week. Maine is a much lesser % to do so than Stony Brook but both are in the same situation as BDK brought up. Richmond has a high-powered O & showed vs both UNH & VU this year their D is much improved. Neither game will be a fun roadtrip for the pair from Virginia.

[89Hen]

-The #1 time for letdowns is after a big upset win, no matter who you're playing the next week.

Has that ever been proven? Seems to me one of those things people love to say, but there are no real stats to back it up. I don't know how you go about looking up stuff like that, so I can only go on ones I know. In 2003 the Hens went 15-1. The lone loss was to a weak Northeastern team the week after a mediocre Maine win, which was the week after the HUGE win over Navy. UNH won 5 straight games over I-A opponents a few years back. Only one time did the lose the following week, 2004 to W&M after beating Rutgers, but W&M was a semifinalist that year, so no slouch. When AppSt beat Michigan, they won the next two weeks.

[BDKJMU]

-The #1 time for letdowns is after a big upset win, no matter who you're playing the next week.

Has that ever been proven? Seems to me one of those things people love to say, but there are no real stats to back it up. I don't know how you go about looking up stuff like that, so I can only go on ones I know. In 2003 the Hens went 15-1. The lone loss was to a weak Northeastern team the week after a mediocre Maine win, which was the week after the HUGE win over Navy. UNH won 5 straight games over I-A opponents a few years back. Only one time did the lose the following week, 2004 to W&M after beating Rutgers, but W&M was a semifinalist that year, so no slouch. When AppSt beat Michigan, they won the next two weeks.

The week after App State beat Michigan they beat Div II Lenoir Ryan 48-7. The following week also at home they beat NAU (who finished 6-5) 34-21. Bottom line is ASU was against a completely overmatched Div II at home after the Michigan win, so you can't tell if there was a letdown or not.

In 08' the week after #3 JMU knocked off #1 App at home JMU was at Maine (08' JMU was #1 seed, lost semis to Montana to finish 12-2, Maine finished 8-5 after losing 1st round playoffs). It was tied 3-3 at the half and 10-10 early 4th. This was after JMU had picked off Maine twice, at the JMU 2 and JMU 3 yard lines and Maine had missed a FG. Early 4th after tying it at 10-10 Maine did an onside kick which they recovered but Maine was called for illegal touching before it went 10 yards. 15 yd penalty and JMU got the ball at the Maine 35. Had a short TD drive and then scored late 4th to make it 24-10 final. I was at the game and remember it as being a JMU letdown and was thinking thank goodness for the 2 picks near the goaline, the missed FG, and the illegal touching on the inside kick & JMU was fortunate to win that game.
Of course this Maine team isn't as good as their 08' team, but neither is 14' UR as good as 08' JMU.

[89Hen]

Bottom line is ASU was against a completely overmatched Div II at home after the Michigan win, so you can't tell if there was a letdown or not.

-The #1 time for letdowns is after a big upset win, no matter who you're playing the next week.

[89Hen]

In 08' the week after #3 JMU knocked off #1 App at home JMU was at Maine (08' JMU was #1 seed, lost semis to Montana to finish 12-2, Maine finished 8-5 after losing 1st round playoffs). It was tied 3-3 at the half and 10-10 early 4th. This was after JMU had picked off Maine twice, at the JMU 2 and JMU 3 yard lines and Maine had missed a FG. Early 4th after tying it at 10-10 Maine did an onside kick which they recovered but Maine was called for illegal touching before it went 10 yards. 15 yd penalty and JMU got the ball at the Maine 35. Had a short TD drive and then scored late 4th to make it 24-10 final. I was at the game and remember it as being a JMU letdown and was thinking thank goodness for the 2 picks near the goaline, the missed FG, and the illegal touching on the inside kick & JMU was fortunate to win that game.
Of course this Maine team isn't as good as their 08' team, but neither is 14' UR as good as 08' JMU.

Who won?

[BDKJMU]

Bottom line is ASU was against a completely overmatched Div II at home after the Michigan win, so you can't tell if there was a letdown or not.

-The #1 time for letdowns is after a big upset win, no matter who you're playing the next week.

And who's to say ASU didn't have a let down?

[jackrabbit]

wildcats win the rest of their games....

[89Hen]

UNH 42 - URI 13
Richmond 31 - Maine 13
JMU 24 - Stony 17
W&M 27 - Elon 7
Albany 24 - Delaware 10
nova 37 - Torson 10

[CAA Flagship]

UNH 55 - URI 10
Richmond 41 - Maine 21
JMU 19 - Stony 16
W&M 31 - Elon 14
Delaware 24 - Albany 23
Villanova 44 - Towson 21

[BDKJMU]

JMU (6-3/3-2) @ SBU (4-5/3-2) 1:00 PM.
JMU 27, SBU 24. Trap game for JMU. Coming off big win, on road, SBU coming off bye, huge showdown with UR the following week.

Final: JMU 27, SBU 24

Call me Nostradamus!!!

[BDKJMU]

Must win 1 of 3 to be a lock at 8-3, 2 of 3 to be likely seed at 9-2, win out for top 3 seed at 10-1:
UNH (7-1/5-0). Remaining @ URI, UD, @ Maine.

Win 1 of 3 to get to 8-4, win out for likely seed at 10-2:
UR (7-2/4-1). Remaining @ Maine, JMU, @ W&M
VU: (7-2/4-1). Remaining: TU, Albany, @ UD

If you held my hand to a fire, I'd have to wager on all three winning out.

I agree 100%

And it didn't take long for you both to be 100% wrong. Maine 33, UR 20.

[BDKJMU]

UNH (7-1/5-0) @ URI (0-9/0-5) 12:30 PM
UNH 49, URI 7. Blowout. Most lopsided all CAA matchup on paper this season.

UNH 41, URI 14

UR (7-2/4-1) @ Maine (3-5/2-3) 12:30 PM TV: Fox College Sports.
UR 24, Maine 20. Trap game for UR. Coming off big win upset win over VU, on road, Maine coming off bye, big showdown with JMU (if JMU beats SBU) the following week.

Maine 33, UR 20. Should have gone with my gut and rationing on it being a trap game for UR...

JMU (6-3/3-2) @ SBU (4-5/3-2) 1:00 PM.
JMU 27, SBU 24. Trap game for JMU. Coming off big win, on road, SBU coming off bye, huge showdown with UR the following week.

JMU 27, SBU 24.

Elon (1-8/0-5) @ W&M (5-4/2-3) 3:30 PM TV:CSN-MA+, TCN-P (4:00 JIP), SNY, CSN-HOU, CSN-BA.
W&M 35, Elon 10

W&M 17, Elon 7

UD (5-4/3-2) @ Albany (6-3/2-3) 3:30 PM.
UD 24, Albany 20. Rootin for the Hens in this one. If JMU is 8-4 come Nov 22, would help if UD was 7-5 or 6-6 so JMU’s OT loss to them won’t be considered a bad loss.[/quote]
UD 31, Albany 28

TU (4-5/2-3) @ VU (7-2/4-1) 7:00 PM.
VU 38, TU 17. VU should bounce back after their tough loss @ UR.

VU 42, TU 14

66-16 on season CAAChallengeSite.net

[BDKJMU]

5 straight JMU wins, 4 straight in the CAA. Only UNH is hotter..

SBU came into game off a bye week at home:
#1 CAA in Scoring Defense
#1 CAA in Total Defense
#1 in CAA Rush Defense
#1 CAA in Pass Defense
ranked very high nationally in all categories, allowing an avg of 235 ypg. And JMU schredded them for 513 yds (314 passing, 199 rushing) (and that was despite having a 38 yd TD pass to #10 called back due to holding).
Highlights:
[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UffWFAgqQWY[/youtube]

Besides Vad Lee passing going for 20 of 33, 314 yds, 3 TDs, 0 INT, he netted 56 yds rushing (12 carries, 80 yds, 4 sacks -24 yds).

Lee is now putting up MONSTER #s. He now has 3,352 yds Total Offense on the year, on pace for over 4,000 yards (In the CAA Robertson is a distant 2nd at 2880). The SBU game he broke Michael Birdsong's JMU single season TD passing mark by 2 TDs and Rodney Landers single season total offense mark, with still 2 regular season games to go. Next game he should Birdsong's JMU single season passing yardage record. Last 6 since after the UD OT loss Lee has thrown 17 TD passes to 1 INT.

[89Hen]

If you held my hand to a fire, I'd have to wager on all three winning out.

I agree 100%

And it didn't take long for you both to be 100% wrong. Maine 33, UR 20.

That's why they play the games.

[BDKJMU]

I'd be seriously shocked to Maine beat Richmond.

I would only be mildly surprised but not shocked. 5 factors:
-The #1 time for letdowns is after a big upset win, no matter who you're playing the next week.
-Maine has a losing record, which will further increase the odds of a letdown. UR players might have a tendency to not focus as much as they would for a ranked opponent, & Maine isn't on the level of Elon or URI suckitude.
-Maine is coming off a bye week, which often means slow starts but overall how much is that worth? +3.5?
-Long trip for UR to practically Canada. That is +3.5 for Maine/-3.5 for UR.
-UR has a potential very big game the following week vs JMU.

UR normally this year would beat Maine by around 3 TDs I think, and beats them 8-9 times out of 10. This might be one of those 1-2 times..

JMU has a similar situation @ SBU. Has me worried.

So are you seriously shocked?

[mainejeff]

Maine is 3-0 vs. Richmond over the last 4 years........2 of those games were in Richmond.