Big Sky Playoff Analysis

[Mvemjsunpx]

(I previously posted this on AGS)


Reasons for Optimism & Skepticism

I'm not including EWU in this analysis because they're a lock to get in. The PSU game should only be the difference between seed & no seed.


Cal Poly

Optimism - Playing really well now.

• • - Good wins over Montana, MSU, and a blowout of Sac.
    - No reason they shouldn't win out with Davis & San Diego left.

Skepticism - Lousy early-season performances hurt their resume.

• • - Won't tie for first in the standings.

Idaho St.

Optimism - Won 5 in a row (4 against DI)

• • - Beat CP and hammered Sac.
    - No bad losses.
    - In for sure if they win out.

Skepticism - Didn't play an FCS team out of conference.

• • - Have to play MSU in Bozeman.
    - Probably can't afford to lose with 2 non-D1 wins (one of which ended up close).
    - Have only beaten Weber 2 times in the last 29 meetings.

NAU

Optimism - Will get the auto-bid if they win out.

• • - 2 good wins over EWU & Cal Poly.
    - Won 4 in a row.
    - Easy remaining schedule.

Skepticism - 2 bad losses to SoDak & NoCo.

• • - Multiple close calls against other weak teams.
    - Wins over EWU & Cal Poly came when those opponents weren't at 100%
    - Relatively weak 8-4 resume means it's likely auto-bid or bust.

Montana

Optimism - No bad losses and tough road schedule.

• • - Could end up with 2 wins over winning teams (MSU & Sac).
    - Get MSU at home, where they've played noticeably better.
    - Lone remaining road opponent is weak.

Skepticism - MSU could be their only good win, and they could end up 7-5.

• • - Home team has lost the last 5 Griz/Cat affairs.
    - Won't tie for first in the standings.
    - Lost to Cal Poly, who should end up 8-4.

Montana St.

Optimism - In for sure if they win out.

• • - Beat Montana in Missoula the last 2 tries.
    - No bad losses.
    - Solid chance of getting in even if they split the final 2.

Skepticism - Toughest remaining schedule (vs. ISU, @ UM).

• • - No good wins (though Sac & UCA could end up being decent ones).
    - Lost to Cal Poly, which could be an issue if the Bobcats split.
    - Haven't yet looked good in November.

[Mvemjsunpx]

(part of another post I made later in the same AGS thread)


My prediction at this point is that CP, NAU, and Montana will win out and that ISU will win in Bozeman. That leaves the ISU/Weber game in which anything could happen given the unusual history between those two rivals. That actually would leave a chance for 5 teams (all except MSU) to get in depending on how the rest of FCS shakes out.

Some MVFC, CAA, and Southland cannibalism would be very helpful right now. A Jacksonville State win over EIU this week would also be nice since the Panthers can still get the auto. We should also hope Fordham doesn't choke the Patriot auto-bid—they're not banned from winning it this year. Two pluses are that the SoCon & NEC should be one-bid leagues. The MEAC, on the other hand, has a chance to get multiple teams in since SCSU is in line for the auto & BCU doesn't play NC A&T.

[TribeFanInNC]

[size=85We should also hope Fordham doesn't choke the Patriot auto-bid—they're not banned from winning it this year.

No problem there...they've already clinched the AQ

[blackfeet_grizfan]

Montana is a tough team to judge this year. Their road games have been horrible (it seems Carroll College could beat them if they played in Helena) with questionable play calls and clock management, and you never know which team will show up week to week. Winning out would give them a shot, but the losses to Cal Poly and EWU are not games playoff teams lose. WHERE THE HELL IS PFLUGRAD!!!

[AZGrizFan]

Montana is a tough team to judge this year. Their road games have been horrible (it seems Carroll College could beat them if they played in Helena) with questionable play calls and clock management, and you never know which team will show up week to week. Winning out would give them a shot, but the losses to Cal Poly and EWU are not games playoff teams lose. WHERE THE HELL IS PFLUGRAD!!!

Their road games have also been against an FBS, and FCS #1, #5 and a triple option team that's going to end the year on a 7 game winning streak. And yet, despite all that, in 3 of the 4 we were in a position to win late in the 4th quarter. I'll be honest, I thought the Griz would go 2-2 against Wyoming/NDSU/EWU/MSU. As of now they're 0-3...fully expect them to beat MSU, but I REALLY thought they'd pull ONE of those other tough road assignments out.

[Robsnotes4u]

Montana is a tough team to judge this year. Their road games have been horrible (it seems Carroll College could beat them if they played in Helena) with questionable play calls and clock management, and you never know which team will show up week to week. Winning out would give them a shot, but the losses to Cal Poly and EWU are not games playoff teams lose. WHERE THE HELL IS PFLUGRAD!!!

Their road games have also been against an FBS, and FCS #1, #5 and a triple option team that's going to end the year on a 7 game winning streak. And yet, despite all that, in 3 of the 4 we were in a position to win late in the 4th quarter. I'll be honest, I thought the Griz would go 2-2 against Wyoming/NDSU/EWU/MSU. As of now they're 0-3...fully expect them to beat MSU, but I REALLY thought they'd pull ONE of those other tough road assignments out.

That would be a two game win streak.

[AZGrizFan]

Their road games have also been against an FBS, and FCS #1, #5 and a triple option team that's going to end the year on a 7 game winning streak. And yet, despite all that, in 3 of the 4 we were in a position to win late in the 4th quarter. I'll be honest, I thought the Griz would go 2-2 against Wyoming/NDSU/EWU/MSU. As of now they're 0-3...fully expect them to beat MSU, but I REALLY thought they'd pull ONE of those other tough road assignments out.

That would be a two game win streak.

I was think about ISU's win streak while typing about CP.

[Robsnotes4u]

That would be a two game win streak.

I was think about ISU's win streak while typing about CP.

I did something just like it

[Mvemjsunpx]

[size=85We should also hope Fordham doesn't choke the Patriot auto-bid—they're not banned from winning it this year.

No problem there...they've already clinched the AQ

Oh yeah… good catch. I didn't realize Bucknell was the only 1-loss team.

[EWURanger]

Winning out would give them a shot, but the losses to Cal Poly and EWU are not games playoff teams lose.

They are when those teams are better teams.

[AZGrizFan]

Winning out would give them a shot, but the losses to Cal Poly and EWU are not games playoff teams lose.

They are when those teams are better teams.

Well, they're all potentially playoff teams and SOMEONE had to lose those games...

Losing to USD and UNC. THOSE are not games playoff teams lose....

[dbackjon]

They are when those teams are better teams.

Well, they're all potentially playoff teams and SOMEONE had to lose those games...

Losing to USD and UNC. THOSE are not games playoff teams lose....

Yet NAU beat EWU and Poly and if they win out are in

[dbackjon]

They are when those teams are better teams.

Well, they're all potentially playoff teams and SOMEONE had to lose those games...

Losing to USD and UNC. THOSE are not games playoff teams lose....

Yet NAU beat EWU and Poly and if they win out are in

[Grizalltheway]

And will shit the bed in the first round again.

The Griz would never do that.

[Mvemjsunpx]

Does anyone know if the "no conference opponents in first playoff game" rule applies to conference opponents that didn't play in the regular season? If not, it would seem a near certainty that Montana would be hosting either NAU or Idaho State in the first round if they get in.

[Robsnotes4u]

And will **** the bed in the first round again.

The Griz would never do that.

Pretty tough when you don't get in the playoffs this year.

[Grizalltheway]

And will **** the bed in the first round again.

The Griz would never do that.

Pretty tough when you don't get in the playoffs this year.

[AZGrizFan]

And will **** the bed in the first round again.

The Griz would never do that.

Pretty tough when you don't get in the playoffs this year.

You're nothing if not persistent.

[Mvemjsunpx]

With one week left

Cal Poly's done.

I would think Montana's a lock with a win over MSU. They would likely be the top at-large consideration from the Big Sky (assuming NAU doesn't get the auto, anyway).

MSU's obviously a lock with a win and still has a good shot with a loss.

Idaho State's fate really depends on the 6 DI win thing (assuming they beat Weber, of course). An MSU win over Montana would help because it puts them second in the at-large pecking order instead of third.

NAU seems a long shot as an at large, but some help could make it happen. They could still get the auto with a win & an EWU loss, too.

[EWURanger]

My guess: EWU, UM, MSU.

[kalm]

Pretty much locks right now barring major upsets:
Valley - 4
CAA - 3
OVC - 1
SLC - 1

That leaves 4 open between MSU, UM, NAU, ISU, SFA, Bryant, Bucknell, Bethune Cookman, McNeese (5 DI wins), CSO (6 DI wins, finish at Georgia), and Samford (finish at Auburn), and YSU (finish at NDSU).

I think that NAU still has a shot.

[Grizalltheway]

Not if they don't get the auto. I think they have one too many losses to bad, bad teams.

[kalm]

Not if they don't get the auto. I think they have one too many losses to bad, bad teams.

Who do you have in ahead of them? I think it boils down to 3 out of SFA, NAU, Bucknell, Bryant, and BCU.

[mtjack]

Not if they don't get the auto. I think they have one too many losses to bad, bad teams.

I'm not fired up about this enough to argue on the internets but I will pose a question:

Should FCS teams get rewarded more for beating higher ranked competition or punished more for lower ranked competition?

I'm not trying to hide which two teams I'm talking about here, either.

[Grizalltheway]

Not if they don't get the auto. I think they have one too many losses to bad, bad teams.

I'm not fired up about this enough to argue on the internets but I will pose a question:

Should FCS teams get rewarded more for beating higher ranked competition or punished more for lower ranked competition?

I'm not trying to hide which two teams I'm talking about here, either.

Don't worry, your Jacks will probably shit the bed again against SUU and the question will be moot.